Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 12 August 2013 at 22:30:01 GMT

Premier League    (Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    71.66    10.46    33.80    12.57    27.93    44.46    59.69    82.26     0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    43.07    10.11   -17.81     0.01     0.08     0.29     0.74     3.35    20.04R    4.25  
Cardiff           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    39.18    10.59   -24.01     0.01     0.04     0.17     0.46     2.16    33.94R   10.07  
Chelsea           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    73.55    10.29    36.97    16.34    34.63    52.15    67.15    86.94     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    29.48     9.68   -44.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.13    71.30R   39.23  
Everton           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    60.93    10.44    13.55     1.69     5.38    11.59    20.35    45.02     0.66R    0.07  
Fulham            0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    49.36    10.38    -6.16     0.11     0.52     1.45     3.26    11.04     7.67R    1.24  
Hull              0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    32.60     9.72   -34.18     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.06     0.36    59.86R   24.89  
Liverpool         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    67.06    10.39    24.47     5.47    14.81    26.92    41.13    68.96     0.09R    0.01  
Man_City          0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    75.29    10.12    39.17    20.26    41.32    58.95    73.23    90.41     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    79.87     9.98    51.28    38.75    61.31    76.12    85.76    95.70     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    45.88    10.36   -13.28     0.04     0.20     0.65     1.63     6.26    13.79R    2.65  
Norwich           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    42.39    10.07   -19.05     0.03     0.10     0.24     0.65     3.15    22.11R    4.89  
Southampton       0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    44.97    10.20   -14.65     0.03     0.16     0.52     1.18     5.01    15.49R    3.06  
Stoke             0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    44.54     9.71   -11.99     0.02     0.09     0.33     0.88     4.13    14.65R    2.69  
Sunderland        0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    46.89     9.98    -9.61     0.03     0.22     0.68     1.67     6.76    10.53R    1.88  
Swansea           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    47.81    10.16    -8.04     0.06     0.30     0.87     2.12     8.26     9.39R    1.47  
Tottenham         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    65.43    10.59    21.99     4.43    12.17    22.46    35.36    62.70     0.23R    0.01  
West_Brom         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    49.40    10.34    -6.57     0.10     0.48     1.39     2.99    10.85     7.53R    1.22  
West_Ham          0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    46.33    10.29   -11.42     0.05     0.25     0.73     1.66     6.56    12.64R    2.37  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 August 2013, Leicester 0 0 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Watford          2    6   +6       2.33    86.23     4.40    79.94    12.05    27.23    16.67    31.49    68.56    41.31P    0.16R    0.02  
Blackpool        2    6   +3       2.39    86.26     1.68    71.24    11.85    10.38     4.90    11.29    39.80    17.80P    1.13R    0.13  
Nott'm_Forest    2    6   +2       2.98    91.86     1.57    68.16    11.45     5.11     2.46     6.55    29.53    11.45P    1.77R    0.24  
Burnley          2    4   +1       1.19    75.50     0.89    66.76    11.74     4.83     2.02     5.35    26.18     9.91P    2.99R    0.45  
Derby            2    4   +1       1.44    79.82     1.23    64.45    11.61     1.30     1.24     3.60    20.04     6.94P    4.22R    0.73  
QPR              2    4   +1       0.51    62.41    -0.08    73.42    12.31    14.77     7.20    15.65    47.22    24.39P    0.95R    0.14  
Reading          2    4   +1       0.75    67.94     0.22    78.44    12.77    22.68    14.75    28.36    63.47    38.58P    0.47R    0.06  
Leeds_United     2    4   +1       1.74    84.09     1.70    62.83    11.70    -1.34     0.91     2.79    16.82     5.62P    5.63R    1.10  
Leicester        2    4   +1       0.68    66.13     0.15    75.08    11.59    17.22     7.74    17.44    53.18    27.55P    0.47R    0.05  
Wigan            1    3   +4       1.02    70.56     3.03    84.43    13.36    35.37    31.07    47.38    78.15    57.13P    0.17R    0.02  
Ipswich          2    3   +2       0.56    60.02     2.50    59.38    11.57    -3.79     0.45     1.49    10.51     3.19P    9.36R    2.03  
Middlesbrough    2    3   +0       0.59    60.34     0.45    61.44    11.52    -2.79     0.71     2.05    13.66     4.37P    6.63R    1.35  
Birmingham       2    3   +0      -0.05    47.01    -0.43    66.85    11.73     5.44     2.13     5.54    26.53    10.42P    2.69R    0.41  
Yeovil           2    3   +0       0.97    68.18     1.06    44.83    11.57   -30.61     0.02     0.08     0.98     0.21P   49.98R   22.19  
Bournemouth      2    3   -4       1.24    73.18    -2.18    47.32    12.00   -31.06     0.05     0.16     1.86     0.41P   41.98R   16.83  
Bolton           2    2   +0      -0.76    35.83    -0.02    71.26    11.80    13.61     4.32    10.88    40.28    18.44P    1.26R    0.17  
Blackburn        2    1   -1      -1.72    22.99    -1.00    62.70    11.63     1.23     0.91     2.74    16.28     5.84P    5.66R    1.05  
Huddersfield     2    1   -1      -1.04    35.87    -0.03    51.83    11.17   -15.45     0.06     0.25     2.76     0.70P   25.01R    7.33  
Brighton         2    0   -2      -3.04     4.67    -2.45    66.53    11.43     7.50     1.82     4.90    25.39    10.38P    2.50R    0.36  
Sheff_Wed        2    0   -2      -2.18    10.31    -1.21    53.31    11.30   -12.30     0.09     0.43     3.81     1.08P   20.96R    5.76  
Charlton         2    0   -2      -3.12     4.80    -2.56    58.71    11.46    -4.18     0.38     1.20     9.54     3.03P    9.95R    2.00  
Doncaster        1    0   -2      -1.04    24.52    -1.48    46.82    12.03   -25.20     0.05     0.15     1.73     0.42P   43.02R   17.60  
Millwall         2    0   -4      -2.86     5.61    -4.22    51.46    10.98   -16.32     0.03     0.16     2.43     0.58P   25.71R    7.21  
Barnsley         2    0   -5      -1.67    16.41    -3.24    48.11    11.06   -23.63     0.02     0.08     1.30     0.28P   37.34R   12.77  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 August 2013, Coventry 5 4 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    2    6   +7       2.49    87.03     5.82    70.81    11.86    13.58     2.38     7.20    36.04    13.38P    1.99R    0.14  
Peterborough     2    6   +3       2.67    88.40     2.08    90.32    12.99    46.31    37.83    57.70    87.42    66.70P    0.07R    0.00  
Walsall          2    6   +3       2.92    90.82     2.49    69.85    11.90     7.83     2.00     6.22    32.33    11.47P    2.57R    0.22  
Colchester       2    6   +2       3.04    91.74     1.65    58.72    11.50   -11.50     0.20     0.71     8.19     1.82P   13.90R    1.78  
Bradford         2    4   +4       1.67    86.25     4.93    50.06    12.01   -21.20     0.03     0.17     2.48     0.50P   38.14R    9.69  
Wolverhampton    2    4   +4       0.06    54.51     1.97    87.25    12.66    42.15    27.47    47.82    83.11    59.55P    0.10R    0.01  
Brentford        2    4   +2       0.93    70.77     1.51    73.28    11.85    15.93     3.74    10.02    43.77    18.32P    1.21R    0.08  
Crawley_Town     2    4   +1       1.52    81.38     1.48    61.41    11.96    -5.73     0.47     1.61    12.68     3.54P   10.29R    1.38  
MK_Dons          2    4   +1       0.33    59.70    -0.48    76.10    11.80    19.47     5.81    14.54    53.45    25.07P    0.60R    0.02  
Oldham           2    3   +0       0.56    59.55     0.48    55.04    11.46   -14.55     0.07     0.30     4.42     0.93P   22.12R    3.99  
Swindon          2    3   +0      -0.05    46.97    -0.40    78.62    11.66    23.85     7.55    19.48    61.88    31.93P    0.35R    0.01  
Sheff_Utd        2    3   -1      -0.07    46.38    -1.51    76.71    11.92    20.21     6.41    15.86    55.42    26.51P    0.63R    0.03  
Rotherham        2    2   +0      -0.23    47.02     0.91    46.69    12.48   -30.42     0.02     0.11     1.72     0.33P   50.06R   17.30  
Preston          2    2   +0      -0.66    37.46     0.12    63.69    11.64     1.88     0.52     1.98    16.57     5.03P    6.62R    0.66  
Bristol_City     2    1   -1      -2.35    13.43    -2.00    70.55    13.31    13.92     3.58     9.29    37.16    16.20P    3.54R    0.38  
Crewe            2    1   -1      -1.49    25.94    -0.50    51.44    11.58   -19.73     0.05     0.17     2.57     0.49P   32.94R    7.30  
Port_Vale        2    1   -1      -1.29    32.27    -0.24    51.77    12.65   -19.12     0.07     0.34     3.91     0.95P   33.80R    8.49  
Tranmere         2    1   -2      -1.81    21.81    -2.09    62.04    11.85    -1.65     0.44     1.62    13.88     4.15P    9.07R    1.10  
Shrewsbury       2    1   -3      -1.06    36.27    -1.91    54.16    11.53   -15.57     0.06     0.27     3.83     0.87P   24.83R    4.65  
Stevenage        2    0   -2      -2.41     8.52    -1.41    54.70    11.60   -12.33     0.08     0.30     4.40     1.08P   23.13R    4.24  
Notts_County     2    0   -3      -2.16    12.10    -1.99    65.12    12.03     3.89     0.79     2.72    20.29     6.42P    6.07R    0.69  
Gillingham       2    0   -5      -1.94    12.62    -3.44    47.10    12.20   -27.73     0.03     0.12     1.56     0.35P   48.28R   15.52  
Carlisle         2    0   -8      -2.27    11.41    -7.14    44.53    11.48   -40.25     0.00     0.04     0.68     0.12P   57.77R   20.51  
Coventry         2   -7   +0      -9.96     0.00    -0.32    60.35    12.25    10.75     0.42     1.40    12.24     4.29P   11.93R    1.81  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd            2    6   +4       3.48    95.13     4.39    71.69    11.30    12.42     6.52    22.87    52.17    29.73P    0.61R    0.18  
Fleetwood_Town        2    6   +4       3.03    92.41     3.62    66.18    11.12     4.02     2.50    10.71    32.49    15.14P    1.85R    0.61  
Chesterfield          2    6   +4       2.87    91.24     3.44    79.08    11.12    23.47    19.19    46.60    76.59    55.49P    0.07R    0.01  
Southend              2    6   +2       2.90    92.00     1.45    75.08    11.40    15.57    11.41    32.54    63.50    40.98P    0.32R    0.09  
Scunthorpe            2    4   +2       0.31    60.03     0.50    78.11    12.08    23.28    19.21    44.00    72.13    52.82P    0.20R    0.05  
Burton_Albion         2    4   +1       1.42    80.25     1.24    63.91    11.52    -0.16     2.02     8.30    26.64    12.12P    3.49R    1.28  
AFC_Wimbledon         2    4   +1       1.67    84.10     1.62    54.92    11.13   -14.27     0.26     1.63     7.74     2.71P   14.35R    6.38  
Exeter                2    4   +1       0.71    67.05     0.17    67.82    11.35     6.50     3.53    14.01    38.61    20.02P    1.42R    0.52  
Rochdale              2    3   +2       0.14    51.09     1.87    68.50    11.57     9.99     4.48    16.17    41.43    22.34P    1.37R    0.48  
Newport_County        2    3   +1       0.88    66.30     2.13    43.88    11.37   -32.70     0.02     0.22     1.43     0.38P   49.47R   32.79  
Northampton           2    3   +1      -0.42    38.47    -0.15    63.26    11.33     0.79     1.63     7.28    24.51    11.22P    3.62R    1.29  
Dag_&_Red             2    3   +0       0.29    54.22     0.06    58.70    11.22    -6.92     0.59     3.26    13.78     5.28P    7.89R    3.11  
Wycombe               2    3   +0       0.03    48.71    -0.32    62.47    11.17    -0.87     1.27     6.24    22.32     9.85P    3.94R    1.48  
York                  2    3   -1       0.57    60.27    -0.60    54.63    10.64   -13.04     0.17     1.19     6.71     2.17P   13.49R    5.79  
Torquay               2    2   +0      -1.03    28.83    -0.46    62.16    11.16     0.21     1.22     5.90    21.51     9.54P    4.05R    1.53  
Bristol_Rovers        2    1   -1      -1.19    33.13    -0.15    58.60    11.34    -5.48     0.53     3.29    14.22     5.58P    8.49R    3.44  
Morecambe             2    1   -1      -1.61    24.11    -0.84    58.64    11.15    -4.66     0.59     3.26    13.63     5.51P    7.82R    3.18  
Cheltenham            2    1   -2      -1.62    23.23    -1.85    63.29    11.18     1.42     1.41     6.77    24.36    11.01P    3.59R    1.25  
Mansfield             2    1   -2      -0.85    39.86    -0.52    49.20    11.75   -21.04     0.11     0.72     3.77     1.31P   30.73R   17.21  
Accrington_Stanley    2    1   -3      -1.39    29.82    -2.44    51.73    11.00   -18.35     0.12     0.78     4.53     1.43P   21.63R   10.34  
Portsmouth            2    1   -3      -2.57    11.73    -4.26    76.97    12.28    22.07    17.22    40.55    68.68    49.77P    0.36R    0.10  
Bury                  2    0   -3      -2.54     7.83    -2.70    66.00    12.60     5.85     3.63    13.43    34.50    19.22P    3.53R    1.46  
Plymouth              2    0   -3      -2.30     8.27    -2.41    54.40    10.74   -10.52     0.16     1.17     6.65     2.25P   14.03R    6.05  
Hartlepool            2    0   -4      -2.58     6.92    -3.78    64.22    11.83     2.41     2.20     9.10    28.11    14.13P    3.68R    1.41  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 August 2013, Cambridge_Utd 5 1 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green      1    3   +8       0.65    63.61     6.30    76.73    11.71    27.73     7.49    46.03    16.39P    0.24R    0.03  
Cambridge_Utd     1    3   +4       0.69    64.28     2.35    68.71    11.77    10.24     1.96    21.26     5.56P    1.55R    0.16  
Barnet            1    3   +3       0.51    60.87     0.95    85.56    12.61    38.26    26.65    72.71    40.54P    0.06R    0.00  
Kidderminster     1    3   +2       0.82    67.02     0.70    83.77    11.56    34.44    19.57    69.68    33.36P    0.06R    0.00  
Wrexham           1    3   +1       0.62    63.22    -0.69    83.08    11.41    30.76    17.29    66.71    31.36P    0.05R    0.01  
Dartford          1    3   +1       1.13    72.59     0.22    62.47    11.46    -3.14     0.53     8.86     1.86P    4.60R    0.64  
Nuneaton          1    3   +1       2.12    89.42     1.75    59.21    11.39    -7.94     0.25     5.23     0.94P    7.67R    1.18  
Southport         1    3   +1       1.63    81.21     1.01    59.99    11.83    -9.20     0.39     6.59     1.14P    7.80R    1.44  
Tamworth          1    3   +1       1.80    84.33     1.25    56.19    11.24   -13.33     0.14     3.01     0.52P   11.90R    2.16  
Braintree_Town    1    1   +0       0.25    71.71     1.11    60.07    11.93    -5.75     0.42     6.96     1.30P    7.84R    1.41  
Grimsby           1    1   +0      -0.51    44.84    -0.21    77.84    11.52    24.75     8.27    49.35    18.59P    0.19R    0.01  
Hereford          1    1   +0      -1.05    28.29    -1.11    70.88    11.77    13.46     2.99    26.92     7.86P    0.96R    0.10  
Lincoln_City      1    1   +0      -0.11    59.08     0.44    60.99    11.65    -3.34     0.43     7.47     1.48P    6.03R    0.96  
Woking            1    1   +0      -0.66    40.92    -0.44    55.80    11.68   -13.77     0.14     3.31     0.55P   14.04R    2.94  
Welling           1    0   -1      -0.45    36.78     0.69    49.36    13.40   -23.74     0.12     2.20     0.46P   32.63R   11.19  
Alfreton_Town     1    0   -1      -0.91    27.41    -0.22    56.06    11.69   -12.23     0.15     3.42     0.64P   13.30R    2.76  
Luton             1    0   -1      -1.39    18.79    -1.01    73.15    11.58    17.88     4.11    33.74    10.88P    0.53R    0.07  
Macclesfield      1    0   -1      -1.88    10.58    -1.75    62.62    11.61     0.23     0.58     9.53     2.11P    4.65R    0.73  
Salisbury         1    0   -1      -1.53    15.67    -1.25    44.57    12.93   -32.22     0.02     0.84     0.16P   46.88R   19.97  
Gateshead         1    0   -2      -0.62    32.98    -0.70    60.99    11.71    -3.40     0.41     7.55     1.63P    6.39R    1.01  
Chester           1    0   -3      -0.37    39.13    -0.95    45.91    13.21   -31.96     0.06     1.25     0.21P   42.79R   17.34  
Halifax           1    0   -4      -0.53    35.72    -2.35    42.60    13.10   -41.62     0.05     0.68     0.12P   53.85R   25.19  
Hyde_United       1    0   -8      -0.49    36.39    -6.30    47.72    11.35   -35.27     0.03     0.62     0.08P   35.56R   10.64  
Aldershot         1   -9   +0     -10.20     0.00     0.21    76.33    12.25    39.16     7.96    46.08    22.28P    0.42R    0.04  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10