Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 11 August 2013 at 22:30:01 GMT

Premier League    (Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Arsenal           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    71.94    10.54    34.44    12.76    28.37    44.82    60.18    82.99     0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa       0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    43.29    10.25   -17.60     0.02     0.11     0.31     0.82     3.74    19.70R    4.34  
Cardiff           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    38.72    10.54   -25.12     0.01     0.06     0.18     0.43     1.86    35.33R   10.80  
Chelsea           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    73.64    10.27    37.22    15.90    34.37    51.75    66.83    87.08     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace    0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    29.77     9.74   -44.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.19    70.41R   37.80  
Everton           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    61.07    10.48    13.82     1.78     5.59    11.81    20.78    45.14     0.63R    0.03  
Fulham            0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    49.15    10.35    -6.69     0.15     0.48     1.37     2.91    10.54     7.81R    1.26  
Hull              0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    32.33     9.63   -34.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.34    60.58R   25.65  
Liverpool         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    67.08    10.49    24.66     5.47    14.68    26.71    40.78    68.83     0.11R    0.01  
Man_City          0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    75.58    10.12    39.93    20.82    41.70    59.68    73.90    90.65     0.01R    0.00  
Man_Utd           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    79.98    10.05    51.72    38.47    61.08    75.87    85.79    95.64     0.00R    0.00  
Newcastle         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    46.04    10.46   -13.19     0.04     0.24     0.77     1.78     6.47    13.69R    2.67  
Norwich           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    42.79    10.18   -18.45     0.01     0.06     0.27     0.74     3.36    20.92R    4.60  
Southampton       0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    45.11    10.22   -14.58     0.04     0.18     0.52     1.32     5.14    14.94R    3.02  
Stoke             0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    44.49     9.64   -12.17     0.01     0.08     0.26     0.78     3.74    14.55R    2.61  
Sunderland        0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    46.52    10.11   -10.40     0.05     0.22     0.61     1.51     6.45    11.50R    2.07  
Swansea           0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    47.65    10.19    -8.40     0.06     0.28     0.86     1.95     7.98     9.70R    1.61  
Tottenham         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    65.32    10.67    21.80     4.24    11.76    22.07    34.56    62.06     0.23R    0.03  
West_Brom         0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    49.52    10.47    -6.58     0.12     0.51     1.43     3.21    11.44     7.52R    1.21  
West_Ham          0    0   +0       0.00    50.00     0.00    46.31    10.24   -11.49     0.06     0.23     0.70     1.66     6.37    12.32R    2.29  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 August 2013, Leicester 0 0 Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Watford          2    6   +6       2.32    86.05     4.39    80.04    12.10    27.43    17.15    32.09    68.98    42.04P    0.18R    0.02  
Blackpool        2    6   +3       2.38    86.23     1.66    71.34    12.00    10.52     4.90    11.39    40.27    18.01P    1.22R    0.14  
Nott'm_Forest    2    6   +2       2.97    91.83     1.56    68.28    11.52     5.28     2.54     6.70    29.90    11.75P    1.89R    0.25  
Burnley          2    4   +1       1.17    75.40     0.87    66.96    11.78     5.07     2.18     5.79    26.65    10.26P    2.78R    0.46  
Derby            2    4   +1       1.44    79.85     1.24    64.36    11.56     1.20     1.27     3.62    19.69     6.96P    4.02R    0.66  
QPR              2    4   +1       0.52    62.76    -0.07    73.26    12.30    14.53     6.89    15.22    47.02    24.23P    0.96R    0.13  
Reading          2    4   +1       0.75    68.11     0.24    78.00    12.92    22.07    14.48    27.19    61.54    37.16P    0.56R    0.10  
Leeds_United     2    4   +1       1.71    83.97     1.66    63.41    11.78    -0.42     1.16     3.15    18.17     6.09P    5.18R    0.99  
Leicester        2    4   +1       0.72    67.03     0.20    75.05    11.63    17.13     7.77    17.43    52.79    27.16P    0.52R    0.04  
Wigan            1    3   +4       1.03    70.77     3.05    84.31    13.22    35.19    30.58    47.34    77.87    56.84P    0.16R    0.03  
Ipswich          2    3   +2       0.58    60.46     2.52    59.03    11.36    -4.25     0.35     1.24     9.62     2.82P    9.56R    1.94  
Middlesbrough    2    3   +0       0.57    60.06     0.44    61.69    11.55    -2.40     0.69     2.21    14.38     4.58P    6.62R    1.22  
Birmingham       2    3   +0      -0.07    46.65    -0.48    66.87    11.66     5.46     2.07     5.42    26.34    10.35P    2.71R    0.39  
Yeovil           2    3   +0       0.99    68.57     1.11    44.47    11.75   -31.27     0.03     0.09     1.07     0.26P   51.19R   22.94  
Bournemouth      2    3   -4       1.26    73.48    -2.16    47.11    12.16   -31.44     0.06     0.20     1.89     0.45P   42.78R   17.54  
Bolton           2    2   +0      -0.77    35.64    -0.03    71.05    11.93    13.24     4.46    10.78    39.66    18.45P    1.45R    0.21  
Blackburn        2    1   -1      -1.72    22.92    -1.00    62.51    11.55     0.99     0.85     2.43    15.70     5.47P    5.61R    1.05  
Huddersfield     2    1   -1      -1.04    35.84    -0.02    51.73    11.29   -15.57     0.08     0.24     2.81     0.65P   25.21R    7.36  
Brighton         2    0   -2      -3.04     4.74    -2.45    66.64    11.53     7.72     1.79     5.08    25.72    10.50P    2.68R    0.34  
Sheff_Wed        2    0   -2      -2.18    10.34    -1.22    53.59    11.30   -11.94     0.12     0.46     4.02     1.16P   20.04R    5.26  
Charlton         2    0   -2      -3.12     4.67    -2.57    58.78    11.58    -4.08     0.43     1.39     9.84     3.30P   10.11R    2.18  
Doncaster        1    0   -2      -1.04    24.50    -1.48    46.83    12.23   -25.21     0.06     0.20     1.83     0.47P   42.99R   17.75  
Millwall         2    0   -4      -2.88     5.37    -4.24    51.90    11.11   -15.63     0.06     0.25     2.82     0.72P   24.40R    6.47  
Barnsley         2    0   -5      -1.67    16.42    -3.23    48.16    11.11   -23.62     0.03     0.09     1.43     0.32P   37.16R   12.53  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 August 2013, Coventry 5 4 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient    2    6   +7       2.52    87.24     5.86    70.51    11.90    13.08     2.26     6.68    34.77    12.43P    2.12R    0.18  
Peterborough     2    6   +3       2.68    88.32     2.12    90.21    12.99    46.01    37.74    57.63    87.17    66.61P    0.09R    0.01  
Walsall          2    6   +3       2.94    90.84     2.52    69.77    11.98     7.70     2.21     6.16    32.10    11.42P    2.45R    0.23  
Colchester       2    6   +2       3.03    91.71     1.64    58.72    11.56   -11.62     0.21     0.77     8.19     1.89P   14.33R    2.00  
Bradford         2    4   +4       1.69    86.53     4.98    49.84    12.11   -21.56     0.06     0.20     2.40     0.56P   39.03R   10.21  
Wolverhampton    2    4   +4       0.06    54.36     1.97    87.17    12.62    42.06    27.35    47.84    83.03    59.40P    0.10R    0.01  
Brentford        2    4   +2       0.92    70.62     1.49    73.48    11.75    16.15     3.63    10.11    44.54    18.39P    1.13R    0.06  
Crawley_Town     2    4   +1       1.54    81.52     1.51    61.26    12.10    -6.10     0.48     1.59    12.78     3.57P   10.85R    1.49  
MK_Dons          2    4   +1       0.31    59.42    -0.49    76.28    11.70    19.67     5.68    14.69    53.77    25.18P    0.58R    0.04  
Oldham           2    3   +0       0.54    59.04     0.44    55.20    11.50   -14.31     0.13     0.43     4.66     1.15P   21.74R    3.68  
Swindon          2    3   +0      -0.06    46.80    -0.43    78.75    11.61    24.14     7.77    19.46    62.24    32.05P    0.36R    0.02  
Sheff_Utd        2    3   -1      -0.06    46.53    -1.49    76.62    11.91    20.02     6.09    15.53    55.11    26.15P    0.62R    0.04  
Rotherham        2    2   +0      -0.25    46.66     0.88    47.03    12.52   -29.72     0.04     0.14     1.91     0.39P   49.01R   16.47  
Preston          2    2   +0      -0.65    37.86     0.14    63.72    11.74     1.84     0.57     2.02    16.74     5.18P    6.72R    0.71  
Bristol_City     2    1   -1      -2.36    13.10    -2.01    70.60    13.52    14.02     3.74     9.58    37.38    16.57P    3.74R    0.40  
Crewe            2    1   -1      -1.48    26.00    -0.50    51.55    11.78   -19.50     0.05     0.22     2.83     0.63P   32.98R    7.38  
Port_Vale        2    1   -1      -1.27    32.52    -0.23    51.83    12.66   -19.08     0.09     0.35     3.93     1.00P   33.54R    8.62  
Tranmere         2    1   -2      -1.82    21.82    -2.09    62.04    11.85    -1.58     0.41     1.50    13.68     4.07P    9.02R    1.18  
Shrewsbury       2    1   -3      -1.04    36.65    -1.90    53.81    11.44   -15.99     0.05     0.23     3.52     0.72P   25.68R    4.73  
Stevenage        2    0   -2      -2.40     8.60    -1.38    54.61    11.77   -12.47     0.08     0.39     4.52     1.15P   23.48R    4.39  
Notts_County     2    0   -3      -2.17    12.05    -2.01    65.15    12.10     3.95     0.90     2.96    20.30     6.72P    5.90R    0.73  
Gillingham       2    0   -5      -1.94    12.55    -3.44    47.17    12.18   -27.61     0.02     0.09     1.57     0.31P   47.92R   15.23  
Carlisle         2    0   -8      -2.30    11.02    -7.20    44.71    11.58   -39.83     0.02     0.04     0.69     0.13P   56.75R   20.36  
Coventry         2   -7   +0      -9.98     0.00    -0.36    60.34    12.17    10.73     0.40     1.39    12.16     4.34P   11.88R    1.81  

Adjustments:
Coventry        -10



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 August 2013, AFC_Wimbledon 1 0 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Oxford_Utd            2    6   +4       3.48    95.14     4.39    71.38    11.37    12.00     6.18    21.72    50.88    28.46P    0.64R    0.21  
Fleetwood_Town        2    6   +4       3.02    92.39     3.60    66.38    11.25     4.30     2.66    11.17    33.50    15.91P    1.88R    0.59  
Chesterfield          2    6   +4       2.88    91.30     3.44    79.18    11.25    23.64    19.44    46.67    76.41    55.62P    0.08R    0.02  
Southend              2    6   +2       2.91    91.98     1.46    75.04    11.26    15.42    10.90    32.01    63.45    40.29P    0.23R    0.03  
Scunthorpe            2    4   +2       0.32    60.20     0.50    78.02    12.23    23.05    18.78    43.47    71.71    52.37P    0.21R    0.07  
Burton_Albion         2    4   +1       1.42    80.32     1.26    64.07    11.50     0.14     1.93     8.37    27.15    12.22P    3.29R    1.20  
AFC_Wimbledon         2    4   +1       1.67    84.11     1.62    54.64    11.12   -14.74     0.25     1.50     7.52     2.48P   14.85R    6.66  
Exeter                2    4   +1       0.72    67.32     0.18    68.05    11.43     6.88     3.83    14.72    39.20    20.80P    1.38R    0.46  
Rochdale              2    3   +2       0.15    51.13     1.89    68.78    11.63    10.44     4.73    16.77    42.53    22.98P    1.36R    0.45  
Newport_County        2    3   +1       0.89    66.23     2.14    43.99    11.38   -32.57     0.03     0.21     1.43     0.39P   49.02R   32.65  
Northampton           2    3   +1      -0.43    38.22    -0.16    62.97    11.34     0.37     1.53     6.97    23.97    10.66P    3.79R    1.37  
Dag_&_Red             2    3   +0       0.28    54.03     0.04    58.84    11.21    -6.71     0.64     3.48    14.13     5.65P    7.77R    3.15  
Wycombe               2    3   +0       0.03    48.69    -0.33    62.31    11.16    -1.10     1.12     5.82    21.71     9.38P    4.13R    1.65  
York                  2    3   -1       0.59    60.66    -0.57    54.14    10.58   -13.74     0.15     1.00     6.13     2.01P   14.65R    6.25  
Torquay               2    2   +0      -1.02    28.85    -0.46    61.91    11.02    -0.20     1.12     5.37    20.50     8.80P    4.20R    1.55  
Bristol_Rovers        2    1   -1      -1.16    33.71    -0.12    58.24    11.27    -5.96     0.58     3.08    13.25     5.09P    8.67R    3.63  
Morecambe             2    1   -1      -1.60    24.23    -0.84    58.45    11.15    -5.00     0.59     2.98    13.21     5.14P    8.00R    3.31  
Cheltenham            2    1   -2      -1.62    23.29    -1.85    63.42    11.14     1.55     1.36     6.85    24.60    11.03P    3.46R    1.22  
Mansfield             2    1   -2      -0.88    38.93    -0.56    49.45    11.76   -20.68     0.13     0.82     4.01     1.40P   30.02R   16.59  
Accrington_Stanley    2    1   -3      -1.40    29.61    -2.46    52.07    11.00   -17.80     0.13     0.86     4.84     1.68P   20.47R    9.64  
Portsmouth            2    1   -3      -2.57    11.94    -4.25    77.16    12.48    22.35    17.54    41.36    68.70    50.31P    0.40R    0.12  
Bury                  2    0   -3      -2.55     7.69    -2.71    66.27    12.56     6.27     3.77    13.66    35.29    19.58P    3.24R    1.29  
Plymouth              2    0   -3      -2.29     8.40    -2.40    54.02    10.65   -11.08     0.14     0.99     5.89     2.00P   14.88R    6.53  
Hartlepool            2    0   -4      -2.62     6.91    -3.82    64.78    12.00     3.16     2.45    10.16    30.01    15.75P    3.39R    1.34  



Conference    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 August 2013, Cambridge_Utd 5 1 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1

Forest_Green      1    3   +8       0.65    63.45     6.28    76.80    11.69    27.76     7.79    46.41    16.83P    0.26R    0.03  
Cambridge_Utd     1    3   +4       0.72    64.81     2.41    68.51    11.72     9.91     1.85    20.89     5.25P    1.62R    0.18  
Barnet            1    3   +3       0.52    60.94     0.94    86.16    12.44    39.35    28.55    74.89    42.74P    0.07R    0.01  
Kidderminster     1    3   +2       0.81    66.80     0.67    83.46    11.56    34.00    18.73    68.65    32.37P    0.04R    0.00  
Wrexham           1    3   +1       0.62    63.12    -0.69    82.86    11.31    30.37    16.77    66.85    31.00P    0.04R    0.00  
Dartford          1    3   +1       1.11    72.21     0.19    62.61    11.52    -2.90     0.61     9.44     2.02P    4.72R    0.74  
Nuneaton          1    3   +1       2.11    89.25     1.74    59.47    11.22    -7.65     0.23     5.36     0.93P    7.36R    1.14  
Southport         1    3   +1       1.61    80.83     0.99    60.21    11.95    -8.83     0.41     7.03     1.28P    7.94R    1.51  
Tamworth          1    3   +1       1.80    84.42     1.26    55.96    11.21   -13.80     0.12     2.99     0.47P   12.51R    2.26  
Braintree_Town    1    1   +0       0.26    71.84     1.11    59.64    11.77    -6.47     0.33     6.29     1.17P    8.15R    1.46  
Grimsby           1    1   +0      -0.52    44.60    -0.22    77.75    11.51    24.54     8.41    49.26    18.85P    0.18R    0.01  
Hereford          1    1   +0      -1.05    28.16    -1.11    70.82    11.75    13.37     3.02    26.90     7.90P    1.03R    0.11  
Lincoln_City      1    1   +0      -0.10    59.58     0.47    61.01    11.49    -3.26     0.40     7.29     1.49P    6.14R    0.99  
Woking            1    1   +0      -0.67    40.42    -0.47    55.90    11.87   -13.61     0.13     3.71     0.67P   14.37R    3.08  
Welling           1    0   -1      -0.45    36.88     0.69    49.18    13.59   -24.14     0.12     2.28     0.44P   33.64R   12.23  
Alfreton_Town     1    0   -1      -0.89    27.79    -0.19    55.71    11.66   -12.89     0.12     3.17     0.54P   14.05R    3.00  
Luton             1    0   -1      -1.37    19.16    -0.99    73.09    11.61    17.80     4.15    33.59    10.84P    0.56R    0.05  
Macclesfield      1    0   -1      -1.87    10.75    -1.74    62.47    11.68    -0.07     0.64     9.47     2.17P    5.04R    0.74  
Salisbury         1    0   -1      -1.54    15.58    -1.26    44.58    12.89   -32.09     0.05     0.89     0.18P   47.38R   20.29  
Gateshead         1    0   -2      -0.62    33.20    -0.67    60.51    11.59    -4.25     0.37     6.84     1.37P    6.75R    1.09  
Chester           1    0   -3      -0.38    39.06    -0.94    46.75    13.24   -30.50     0.04     1.37     0.24P   40.99R   16.04  
Halifax           1    0   -4      -0.55    35.19    -2.41    43.64    13.23   -39.58     0.04     0.90     0.16P   50.89R   23.61  
Hyde_United       1    0   -8      -0.49    36.55    -6.28    47.76    11.48   -35.30     0.01     0.61     0.08P   35.86R   11.35  
Aldershot         1   -9   +0     -10.19     0.00     0.22    75.87    12.02    38.24     7.11    44.91    21.03P    0.42R    0.07  

Adjustments:
Aldershot        -10