Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 26 March 2012 at 22:50:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 March 2012, Man_Utd vs Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         30   73  +47      91.02     3.18    59.18    78.62    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        30   70  +50      86.55     3.45    59.40    21.38    99.38    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         30   58  +22      73.78     3.58    30.16     0.00     0.60    73.55    95.01   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       30   55  +18      70.29     3.68    24.77     0.00     0.03    22.51    80.42    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         30   50  +15      65.68     3.47    22.76     0.00     0.00     3.81    22.46    98.31     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       30   50   +2      60.75     3.68     1.57     0.00     0.00     0.13     2.04    76.40     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       30   42   +5      55.45     3.73     8.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    19.51     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      30   40   +5      49.76     3.53     3.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.00     0.00  
Everton         30   40   -2      51.88     3.67    -0.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.44     0.00     0.00  
Swansea         30   39   -2      48.81     3.56    -4.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         30   39   -6      46.51     3.50   -12.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           30   38  -12      48.73     3.72   -12.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          30   36   -4      46.69     3.62    -4.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.00R    0.00  
West_Brom       30   36   -5      45.64     3.58    -7.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   33   -7      43.89     3.83    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.23R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   28  -19      36.08     3.44   -24.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.97R    1.26  
Bolton          29   26  -25      36.20     3.91   -28.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.84R    2.61  
QPR             30   25  -20      30.97     3.12   -29.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.79R   20.03  
Wigan           30   25  -28      31.72     3.22   -35.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.29R   20.99  
Wolverhampton   30   22  -34      29.17     3.43   -40.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.81R   55.10  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 March 2012, Birmingham vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      39   78  +37      89.98     3.50    40.45    86.24    97.93   100.00    98.61P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          39   73  +22      83.59     3.43    23.47     8.76    56.07    99.96    69.53P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         38   69  +21      82.42     3.81    24.52     4.99    44.54    99.60    61.77P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         39   62   +8      71.10     3.45     7.41     0.00     0.14    38.68     6.79P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    38   61   +3      72.03     3.73     3.22     0.00     0.17    47.04     8.88P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       38   60  +19      73.15     3.73    22.17     0.00     1.00    68.03    22.16P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        39   60  +10      71.40     3.60    12.82     0.00     0.08    47.54    11.15P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          39   60   +7      71.69     3.52    10.13     0.00     0.06    48.20    11.01P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             38   58   +6      69.70     3.64     7.20     0.00     0.03    26.05     5.29P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     39   57   +2      66.80     3.51     2.11     0.00     0.00     8.25     1.52P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        38   55   +8      67.29     3.82     9.91     0.00     0.00    12.50     2.68P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            39   55   -8      63.60     3.45    -9.46     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Watford          39   54   -9      62.23     3.48   -11.22     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   38   53   +4      63.13     3.56     3.10     0.00     0.00     1.21     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          38   51   -6      62.28     3.83    -5.55     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          38   50   +3      61.60     3.72     3.83     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         39   46  -15      53.31     3.34   -18.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Peterborough     38   44   -3      54.20     3.85    -4.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.00  
Millwall         39   40  -10      48.56     3.44   -11.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.75R    0.15  
Nott'm_Forest    38   39  -18      48.69     3.65   -19.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.57R    0.32  
Bristol_City     39   36  -29      43.76     3.31   -31.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.59R    7.43  
Coventry         39   35  -17      43.26     3.29   -18.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.96R    8.78  
Doncaster        38   31  -30      38.72     3.46   -34.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.35R   60.47  
Portsmouth       38   30   -5      41.15     3.69    -4.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.39R   22.85  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 March 2012, Brentford vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        39   82  +39      95.57     3.42    44.99    89.28    97.94   100.00    98.61P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       39   74  +22      85.62     3.50    25.10     1.01    18.30    99.99    37.01P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       38   73  +32      88.28     3.68    38.57     7.25    54.05   100.00    69.88P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    38   71  +33      85.69     3.75    38.63     2.39    25.73   100.00    51.49P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         38   67  +32      81.06     3.79    36.61     0.08     3.98    99.60    29.26P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        37   58   -2      69.07     3.97    -4.17     0.00     0.00    26.77     2.97P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       37   57  +17      70.72     4.03    19.06     0.00     0.00    52.98     8.04P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    39   57   +4      67.67     3.57     5.61     0.00     0.00    15.19     1.97P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester      38   52   +1      63.48     3.82     1.79     0.00     0.00     2.69     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   50   +4      62.46     3.97     4.23     0.00     0.00     2.32     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool      39   50   -3      58.58     3.37    -4.41     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Tranmere        39   48   -1      57.06     3.42    -1.66     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.23R    0.00  
Bournemouth     38   48   -5      58.56     3.72    -5.56     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.11R    0.00  
Oldham          37   48   -9      59.08     3.96   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    0.16R    0.00  
Preston         38   47  -10      56.31     3.72   -12.57     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.68R    0.00  
Yeovil          39   46  -14      54.38     3.40   -15.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.27R    0.00  
Scunthorpe      39   43   -4      52.29     3.49    -4.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.59R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   37   43  -16      53.68     3.86   -18.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.55R    0.02  
Bury            39   43  -21      50.82     3.42   -23.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.52R    0.07  
Wycombe         39   40  -15      47.63     3.42   -18.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.77R    1.18  
Walsall         38   39   -6      48.63     3.62    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.12R    1.09  
Rochdale        39   34  -27      42.42     3.42   -28.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.09R   28.83  
Exeter          39   34  -29      41.53     3.34   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.88R   40.28  
Chesterfield    38   33  -22      42.08     3.66   -25.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.00R   28.53  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 March 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              37   76  +36      93.48     3.89    43.67    91.09    99.56   100.00    99.73P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              39   72  +14      83.33     3.56    16.55     1.43    49.04    99.66    62.97P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           38   71  +20      85.27     3.72    24.73     4.65    74.61    99.93    82.41P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         37   68  +20      83.67     4.09    25.09     2.75    58.89    99.50    68.82P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             39   67  +18      79.21     3.45    21.99     0.07    15.48    96.32    39.81P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           39   65  +14      74.72     3.48    14.16     0.00     1.19    70.49    13.85P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           38   62  +16      73.16     3.79    16.41     0.00     0.96    55.93    13.34P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                39   61   +4      71.75     3.56     5.64     0.00     0.17    34.02     7.84P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           38   58  +13      70.88     3.80    15.89     0.00     0.10    33.47     8.80P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            38   56   +9      67.38     3.70     9.63     0.00     0.00     7.97     1.85P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            39   53   +2      63.88     3.52     3.94     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            37   53   -2      64.58     3.95    -2.95     0.00     0.00     1.78     0.36P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            39   51  +10      59.86     3.47     8.89     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   38   50   -3      61.08     3.75    -2.79     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       38   49  -11      58.88     3.73   -12.76     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        39   47  -12      53.89     3.34   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        38   43  -20      52.83     3.78   -21.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.84R    0.12  
Northampton          38   41  -19      49.49     3.62   -23.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.57R    1.56  
Bradford             38   40   -5      48.99     3.63    -7.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.64R    1.38  
Barnet               38   39  -23      47.40     3.60   -27.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.13R    6.17  
Dag_&_Red            39   38  -27      45.58     3.36   -30.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.22R   12.69  
Plymouth             39   37  -17      46.14     3.44   -17.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.73R    8.79  
Macclesfield         39   36  -15      43.21     3.28   -18.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.42R   27.24  
Hereford             39   35  -22      42.56     3.36   -25.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.41R   42.04  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 March 2012, Alfreton_Town vs Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     40   95  +54     105.28     3.17    57.14    82.26   100.00    88.14P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            38   86  +48     100.34     3.59    53.29    17.74   100.00    47.07P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          40   71  +27      81.35     3.20    30.40     0.00    82.66    12.96P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          39   69   +4      78.61     3.56     3.86     0.00    46.29     3.29P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              38   67  +31      82.71     3.59    38.68     0.00    88.88    32.95P    0.00     0.00  
York               37   64  +31      78.73     4.01    34.63     0.00    56.19    11.91P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      40   64  +15      72.95     3.17    16.05     0.00     5.23     0.82P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          39   64   +6      73.87     3.50     6.25     0.00     8.38     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            39   63  +19      74.26     3.51    21.56     0.00    11.79     1.93P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       39   58  +16      68.65     3.50    17.53     0.00     0.42     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      38   56  +10      67.52     3.69    10.98     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     39   56   +0      64.55     3.43    -1.91     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow             40   55   -9      62.68     3.23    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   38   49   -8      58.77     3.68   -10.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           39   45  -15      53.82     3.45   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town      39   41  -25      47.31     3.21   -31.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.95R    0.00  
Stockport          40   38  -24      46.39     3.29   -23.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.88R    0.00  
AFC_Telford        39   37  -19      44.68     3.39   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.93R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       38   36  -15      47.22     3.73   -14.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.05R    0.00  
Newport_County     37   35  -11      46.87     3.95   -11.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.04R    0.00  
Hayes_&_Yeading    39   34  -28      40.78     3.29   -33.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.14R    0.25  
Darlington         38   29  -19      40.02     3.66   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.38R    1.65  
Kettering          40   29  -46      34.64     2.98   -50.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.10R   19.99  
Bath_City          39   24  -42      30.55     3.26   -46.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.53R   78.10  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10
Kettering          -3