Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 23 March 2012 at 23:50:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 21 March 2012, Everton vs Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   70  +46      90.48     3.36    59.99    68.31    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        29   69  +50      87.64     3.67    60.47    31.69    99.78   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         29   55  +19      72.71     3.80    28.04     0.00     0.21    63.19    90.13    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       29   54  +18      70.08     3.92    23.87     0.00     0.03    27.17    73.22    99.79     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         29   49  +15      66.64     3.73    23.71     0.00     0.00     9.54    35.15    98.13     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       29   47   +0      58.87     3.94    -0.90     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.97    49.94     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       29   42   +6      57.94     3.97    11.27     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.54    45.91     0.00     0.00  
Swansea         29   39   +0      50.32     3.80    -1.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.19     0.00R    0.00  
Sunderland      29   37   +3      48.57     3.76     1.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.00R    0.00  
Everton         29   37   -4      50.08     3.90    -3.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.79     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           29   37  -12      48.43     3.88   -13.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.02R    0.00  
Fulham          29   36   -3      47.11     3.75    -5.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.00R    0.00  
West_Brom       29   36   -3      47.29     3.87    -5.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.02R    0.00  
Norwich         29   36   -7      45.40     3.76   -12.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   33   -4      44.71     4.03    -7.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.15R    0.00  
Blackburn       29   28  -18      37.24     3.70   -23.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.58R    0.75  
QPR             29   25  -18      31.89     3.37   -28.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.60R   10.91  
Bolton          28   23  -26      34.76     4.19   -29.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.08R    5.25  
Wigan           29   22  -29      29.05     3.33   -38.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.43R   47.16  
Wolverhampton   29   22  -33      30.18     3.67   -39.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.05R   35.93  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 21 March 2012, Blackpool vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      38   75  +35      89.22     3.70    39.89    82.99    96.99   100.00    97.92P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          38   70  +20      82.17     3.71    21.81     7.23    42.84    99.37    59.27P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         37   68  +21      82.91     4.08    24.70     9.63    55.55    99.42    69.24P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         38   61   +8      71.35     3.70     7.26     0.00     0.31    36.35     6.59P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        38   60  +12      72.58     3.84    14.51     0.02     0.73    54.76    14.00P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    37   60   +3      72.98     3.97     4.06     0.04     0.71    51.71    10.06P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       37   59  +19      73.94     3.99    22.80     0.08     2.46    68.87    23.61P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   59   +7      71.64     3.78     9.56     0.00     0.19    42.11     9.71P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             37   58   +7      70.87     3.90     7.95     0.00     0.21    32.89     6.94P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     38   54   +1      64.99     3.75     0.84     0.00     0.00     3.11     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   37   53   +5      64.45     3.83     4.07     0.00     0.00     2.55     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        37   52   +7      65.73     4.09     9.02     0.00     0.01     6.00     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            38   52   -9      61.87     3.70   -10.58     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          37   51   -5      63.53     4.09    -4.78     0.00     0.00     1.56     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Watford          38   51  -10      60.86     3.78   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          37   49   +3      61.84     3.96     3.67     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     37   44   -2      55.66     4.14    -3.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Barnsley         38   43  -16      51.67     3.62   -19.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.53R    0.01  
Millwall         38   40   -9      50.11     3.73   -10.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.34R    0.10  
Nott'm_Forest    37   38  -18      49.11     3.92   -19.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.30R    0.39  
Bristol_City     38   35  -29      43.62     3.52   -32.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.06R    9.84  
Coventry         38   32  -19      41.42     3.56   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.29R   22.58  
Doncaster        37   31  -28      39.26     3.63   -34.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.64R   53.09  
Portsmouth       37   30   -3      42.69     3.92    -2.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.70R   14.01  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 March 2012, Bournemouth vs Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        38   82  +40      96.83     3.67    45.89    93.06    99.05   100.00    99.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       38   73  +32      88.28     3.69    38.53     5.23    60.50   100.00    73.98P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       38   71  +21      84.28     3.77    24.55     0.38    13.46    99.91    32.89P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    37   68  +32      84.12     4.04    37.72     1.10    17.92    99.86    45.82P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         37   66  +32      82.05     4.06    37.57     0.23     9.06    99.58    34.20P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        36   57   -2      69.22     4.21    -4.50     0.00     0.00    25.91     2.88P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       36   56  +17      71.08     4.25    19.08     0.00     0.01    52.46     7.94P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    38   56   +4      67.97     3.85     5.50     0.00     0.00    16.26     2.08P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester      37   51   +1      64.18     4.09     2.24     0.00     0.00     4.24     0.58P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     37   48   -4      59.94     3.98    -4.56     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.06P    0.07R    0.00  
Brentford       36   47   +2      61.08     4.24     2.57     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.18P    0.06R    0.00  
Hartlepool      38   47   -4      56.80     3.66    -5.63     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.36R    0.00  
Preston         37   46  -10      57.22     4.00   -11.76     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.74R    0.00  
Yeovil          38   46  -13      55.97     3.70   -14.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.36R    0.00  
Tranmere        38   45   -3      55.64     3.70    -3.33     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    1.43R    0.00  
Oldham          36   45  -10      57.35     4.20   -12.06     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    1.03R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient   36   43  -15      54.76     4.14   -18.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.56R    0.03  
Scunthorpe      38   42   -4      52.86     3.76    -4.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.82R    0.06  
Bury            38   42  -21      50.78     3.68   -24.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.13R    0.26  
Wycombe         38   39  -15      47.47     3.64   -19.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.73R    2.81  
Walsall         37   38   -6      48.97     3.86    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.68R    1.62  
Rochdale        38   34  -25      43.47     3.68   -27.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.16R   25.31  
Exeter          38   34  -27      42.62     3.59   -30.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.40R   34.51  
Chesterfield    38   33  -22      42.08     3.66   -25.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.46R   35.39  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 23 March 2012, Macclesfield vs Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              37   76  +36      93.52     3.88    43.74    94.08    99.79   100.00    99.87P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              38   69  +13      81.93     3.81    15.90     0.95    42.49    98.37    57.13P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           37   68  +19      83.63     3.99    23.71     2.72    65.04    99.49    75.58P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             38   67  +19      80.89     3.72    23.45     0.48    38.01    98.00    56.00P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         36   65  +17      82.00     4.38    22.04     1.75    47.91    97.92    59.94P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           38   64  +14      75.16     3.74    14.25     0.01     3.60    71.39    16.48P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           37   61  +16      73.43     4.05    16.25     0.01     2.37    56.11    14.66P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                38   58   +3      70.34     3.83     5.02     0.00     0.14    21.47     4.90P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           37   57  +13      71.55     4.07    16.34     0.00     0.54    38.88    10.94P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            37   56  +10      68.57     3.92    10.36     0.00     0.10    13.18     3.35P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            38   53   +5      65.27     3.79     6.99     0.00     0.00     2.51     0.63P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            37   53   -2      64.58     3.95    -2.95     0.00     0.00     1.69     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            38   51  +11      61.08     3.74     9.67     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   37   50   -2      62.67     4.02    -1.45     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       37   46  -12      56.93     4.01   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        38   44  -16      52.09     3.62   -20.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.60R    0.07  
Burton_Albion        37   43  -16      54.48     4.06   -17.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37R    0.05  
Northampton          37   40  -19      49.88     3.88   -23.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.59R    1.65  
Bradford             37   39   -5      49.11     3.87    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.89R    1.73  
Barnet               38   39  -23      47.41     3.58   -27.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.29R    5.40  
Macclesfield         39   36  -15      43.22     3.31   -18.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.57R   26.68  
Plymouth             38   36  -17      46.45     3.72   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.94R    7.90  
Hereford             38   35  -21      43.73     3.66   -24.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.87R   27.39  
Dag_&_Red            38   35  -28      43.78     3.65   -31.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.88R   29.13  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 March 2012, Alfreton_Town vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     39   92  +52     103.99     3.48    55.68    59.37   100.00    72.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            37   86  +49     102.55     3.81    55.52    40.63   100.00    61.11P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          39   71  +29      82.38     3.47    31.86     0.00    88.46    13.26P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              37   66  +31      83.76     3.79    39.79     0.00    92.07    32.66P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          38   66   +3      76.27     3.74     1.66     0.00    20.45     1.42P    0.00     0.00  
York               36   64  +32      80.99     4.25    37.00     0.00    76.10    16.11P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          38   63   +6      74.24     3.77     6.25     0.00     9.42     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            38   62  +19      74.09     3.73    20.69     0.00     9.98     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      39   61  +13      71.56     3.48    14.36     0.00     2.53     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      37   56  +11      69.32     3.98    12.60     0.00     0.91     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       38   55  +15      66.18     3.68    15.30     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             39   55   -5      64.54     3.56    -5.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     38   53   -4      62.43     3.70    -6.83     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   46   -9      57.73     3.97   -10.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           38   44  -15      54.14     3.73   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town      38   38  -26      45.17     3.48   -32.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.76R    0.03  
AFC_Telford        38   36  -19      44.86     3.67   -22.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.88R    0.04  
Newport_County     36   35   -9      48.12     4.18    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.02R    0.01  
Stockport          39   35  -28      45.04     3.56   -27.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.72R    0.13  
Lincoln_City       37   33  -17      45.66     4.02   -16.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.15R    0.04  
Hayes_&_Yeading    38   33  -28      41.38     3.60   -32.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.34R    0.81  
Darlington         37   29  -17      41.09     3.91   -17.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.64R    2.08  
Kettering          39   29  -45      35.54     3.23   -49.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.04R   22.77  
Bath_City          38   24  -38      31.71     3.53   -43.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.46R   74.10  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10
Kettering          -3