Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 22 March 2012 at 23:50:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 21 March 2012, Everton vs Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   70  +46      90.50     3.36    60.06    68.11    99.98   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        29   69  +50      87.68     3.69    60.54    31.89    99.72   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         29   55  +19      72.75     3.85    28.13     0.00     0.27    63.49    90.25    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       29   54  +18      70.10     3.92    23.90     0.00     0.03    27.24    73.63    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         29   49  +15      66.57     3.73    23.67     0.00     0.00     9.14    34.60    98.06     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       29   47   +0      58.86     3.93    -0.90     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.99    49.65     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       29   42   +6      57.93     3.94    11.29     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.54    46.31     0.00     0.00  
Swansea         29   39   +0      50.24     3.82    -1.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.31     0.00R    0.00  
Sunderland      29   37   +3      48.60     3.79     1.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.01R    0.00  
Everton         29   37   -4      50.04     3.92    -3.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.72     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           29   37  -12      48.47     3.90   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          29   36   -3      47.10     3.75    -5.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom       29   36   -3      47.30     3.85    -5.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.02R    0.00  
Norwich         29   36   -7      45.35     3.75   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   33   -4      44.67     4.03    -7.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.16R    0.00  
Blackburn       29   28  -18      37.24     3.69   -24.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.85R    0.79  
QPR             29   25  -18      31.88     3.34   -28.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.85R   10.94  
Bolton          28   23  -26      34.76     4.19   -29.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.17R    5.45  
Wigan           29   22  -29      29.08     3.36   -38.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.18R   47.32  
Wolverhampton   29   22  -33      30.24     3.67   -39.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.71R   35.50  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 21 March 2012, Blackpool vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      38   75  +35      89.28     3.71    39.95    83.37    96.99   100.00    97.96P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          38   70  +20      82.10     3.69    21.72     7.14    42.01    99.37    58.86P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         37   68  +21      82.90     4.07    24.69     9.35    56.30    99.37    69.62P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         38   61   +8      71.40     3.73     7.33     0.01     0.31    36.95     6.58P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        38   60  +12      72.61     3.86    14.54     0.02     0.73    54.74    13.53P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    37   60   +3      72.95     3.98     4.01     0.02     0.63    50.93     9.56P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       37   59  +19      73.99     4.02    22.83     0.08     2.62    69.06    24.31P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          38   59   +7      71.67     3.76     9.56     0.00     0.22    41.83     9.86P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             37   58   +7      70.93     3.85     8.05     0.00     0.19    33.16     6.98P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     38   54   +1      64.99     3.77     0.84     0.00     0.00     3.06     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   37   53   +5      64.42     3.84     4.06     0.00     0.00     2.59     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        37   52   +7      65.75     4.09     9.07     0.00     0.00     5.98     1.34P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            38   52   -9      61.99     3.72   -10.42     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          37   51   -5      63.49     4.07    -4.83     0.00     0.00     1.59     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Watford          38   51  -10      60.82     3.76   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          37   49   +3      61.86     3.97     3.70     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     37   44   -2      55.65     4.15    -3.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Barnsley         38   43  -16      51.68     3.65   -19.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.40R    0.00  
Millwall         38   40   -9      50.08     3.73   -10.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.25R    0.08  
Nott'm_Forest    37   38  -18      49.09     3.90   -19.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.53R    0.37  
Bristol_City     38   35  -29      43.57     3.52   -32.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.10R    9.88  
Coventry         38   32  -19      41.43     3.55   -21.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.72R   22.56  
Doncaster        37   31  -28      39.28     3.64   -34.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.44R   52.89  
Portsmouth       37   30   -3      42.58     3.90    -2.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.44R   14.22  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 March 2012, Bournemouth vs Brentford; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        38   82  +40      96.92     3.66    45.97    93.38    99.08   100.00    99.40P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       38   73  +32      88.23     3.67    38.48     4.90    60.23   100.00    73.47P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       38   71  +21      84.23     3.79    24.47     0.42    13.47    99.90    32.56P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    37   68  +32      84.15     4.04    37.78     1.13    18.21    99.89    46.69P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         37   66  +32      82.03     4.04    37.56     0.18     8.99    99.51    33.75P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        36   57   -2      69.21     4.22    -4.55     0.00     0.00    26.16     3.00P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       36   56  +17      71.17     4.25    19.20     0.00     0.02    53.44     8.53P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    38   56   +4      67.89     3.82     5.38     0.00     0.00    15.47     1.81P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester      37   51   +1      64.14     4.05     2.19     0.00     0.00     3.80     0.54P    0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth     37   48   -4      60.00     3.97    -4.48     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.05P    0.08R    0.00  
Brentford       36   47   +2      61.10     4.23     2.56     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.17P    0.04R    0.00  
Hartlepool      38   47   -4      56.84     3.65    -5.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.47R    0.00  
Preston         37   46  -10      57.20     4.00   -11.76     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.68R    0.00  
Yeovil          38   46  -13      55.91     3.68   -14.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.31R    0.00  
Tranmere        38   45   -3      55.68     3.72    -3.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.37R    0.00  
Oldham          36   45  -10      57.37     4.22   -12.03     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    1.19R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient   36   43  -15      54.81     4.12   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     4.31R    0.02  
Scunthorpe      38   42   -4      52.85     3.76    -4.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.75R    0.06  
Bury            38   42  -21      50.77     3.67   -24.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.05R    0.27  
Wycombe         38   39  -15      47.45     3.63   -19.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.96R    2.81  
Walsall         37   38   -6      48.91     3.89    -8.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.22R    1.82  
Rochdale        38   34  -25      43.50     3.66   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.06R   25.12  
Exeter          38   34  -27      42.61     3.61   -30.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.03R   34.77  
Chesterfield    38   33  -22      42.09     3.67   -25.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.50R   35.13  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 March 2012, Accrington_Stanley vs Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              37   76  +36      93.52     3.89    43.74    94.01    99.78   100.00    99.87P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              38   69  +13      81.91     3.84    15.88     0.99    42.40    98.31    57.06P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           37   68  +19      83.67     3.98    23.77     2.87    65.41    99.51    75.97P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             38   67  +19      80.85     3.72    23.40     0.49    37.63    97.88    55.49P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         36   65  +17      81.96     4.36    21.96     1.63    47.76    97.78    59.45P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           38   64  +14      75.16     3.76    14.26     0.00     3.67    71.30    16.50P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           37   61  +16      73.47     4.07    16.29     0.00     2.57    56.68    15.09P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                38   58   +3      70.39     3.86     5.08     0.00     0.14    22.00     5.10P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           37   57  +13      71.45     4.08    16.20     0.00     0.55    37.80    10.90P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            37   56  +10      68.57     3.93    10.37     0.00     0.09    13.61     3.36P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            38   53   +5      65.31     3.79     7.05     0.00     0.00     2.56     0.67P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            37   53   -2      64.54     3.94    -2.99     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            38   51  +11      61.05     3.72     9.65     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   37   50   -2      62.64     4.04    -1.48     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       37   46  -12      56.94     3.97   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        38   44  -16      52.07     3.60   -20.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.70R    0.11  
Burton_Albion        37   43  -16      54.53     4.08   -17.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32R    0.03  
Northampton          37   40  -19      49.90     3.87   -23.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.88R    1.72  
Bradford             37   39   -5      49.13     3.87    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.15R    1.77  
Barnet               37   38  -23      47.57     3.84   -27.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.32R    6.92  
Plymouth             38   36  -17      46.49     3.75   -17.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.73R    8.58  
Macclesfield         38   35  -15      43.80     3.61   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.97R   23.32  
Hereford             38   35  -21      43.75     3.65   -24.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.00R   27.63  
Dag_&_Red            38   35  -28      43.79     3.65   -31.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.93R   29.90  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 March 2012, Alfreton_Town vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     39   92  +52     103.98     3.49    55.67    59.45   100.00    72.23P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            37   86  +49     102.53     3.83    55.49    40.55   100.00    61.28P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          39   71  +29      82.36     3.47    31.82     0.00    88.63    13.36P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              37   66  +31      83.78     3.83    39.81     0.00    92.14    32.88P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          38   66   +3      76.18     3.73     1.54     0.00    19.87     1.32P    0.00     0.00  
York               36   64  +32      81.01     4.22    37.02     0.00    76.67    16.08P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          38   63   +6      74.24     3.76     6.23     0.00     9.37     0.87P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            38   62  +19      74.06     3.72    20.64     0.00     9.99     1.56P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      39   61  +13      71.62     3.46    14.48     0.00     2.47     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      37   56  +11      69.30     3.96    12.59     0.00     0.78     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       38   55  +15      66.15     3.68    15.28     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             39   55   -5      64.51     3.54    -5.14     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     38   53   -4      62.46     3.68    -6.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   46   -9      57.83     3.95   -10.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           38   44  -15      54.17     3.74   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Alfreton_Town      38   38  -26      45.17     3.44   -32.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.52R    0.02  
AFC_Telford        38   36  -19      44.83     3.65   -22.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.09R    0.02  
Newport_County     36   35   -9      48.19     4.19    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.97R    0.01  
Stockport          39   35  -28      44.97     3.55   -27.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.02R    0.14  
Lincoln_City       37   33  -17      45.67     3.99   -16.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.88R    0.07  
Hayes_&_Yeading    38   33  -28      41.36     3.58   -32.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.50R    0.83  
Darlington         37   29  -17      41.11     3.91   -17.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.51R    2.07  
Kettering          39   29  -45      35.49     3.22   -50.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.21R   23.66  
Bath_City          38   24  -38      31.78     3.54   -43.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.31R   73.19  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10
Kettering          -3