Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 19 March 2012 at 23:50:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 March 2012, Newcastle vs Norwich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         29   70  +46      90.51     3.36    60.06    74.98    99.99   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        28   66  +49      86.37     3.96    59.96    25.02    99.31    99.93   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       28   53  +18      71.31     4.13    25.22     0.00     0.28    41.78    77.74    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   52  +18      71.20     4.07    27.26     0.00     0.38    43.09    78.18    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   49  +16      67.67     3.95    24.22     0.00     0.04    14.89    41.44    97.73     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       29   47   +0      58.89     3.93    -0.84     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.85    38.55     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   42   +7      59.89     4.15    13.11     0.00     0.00     0.21     1.78    58.03     0.00     0.00  
Swansea         29   39   +0      50.34     3.84    -1.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.49     0.00R    0.00  
Sunderland      28   37   +5      50.25     4.05     4.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.45     0.00     0.00  
Everton         28   37   -3      51.31     4.16    -2.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.39     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          29   36   -3      47.05     3.74    -5.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.00R    0.00  
West_Brom       29   36   -3      47.32     3.85    -5.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.00R    0.00  
Norwich         29   36   -7      45.38     3.77   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02R    0.00  
Stoke           28   36  -12      48.07     4.05   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   33   -4      44.65     4.03    -7.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.09R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   25  -20      35.34     3.95   -26.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.50R    2.29  
Bolton          28   23  -26      34.76     4.21   -29.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.76R    4.03  
QPR             28   22  -19      29.61     3.57   -29.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.41R   25.81  
Wigan           29   22  -29      29.06     3.35   -38.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.92R   38.64  
Wolverhampton   29   22  -33      30.15     3.68   -40.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.29R   29.23  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 March 2012, Cardiff vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      37   72  +33      87.52     3.97    37.76    62.01    87.59    99.99    91.42P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          37   70  +22      83.93     3.96    24.39    18.96    52.50    99.58    66.33P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         36   67  +21      83.76     4.32    25.41    18.20    53.19    99.13    66.75P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       36   59  +22      75.77     4.22    26.42     0.61     4.30    77.27    28.34P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        37   59  +12      73.39     4.13    15.18     0.10     0.95    55.49    13.65P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    36   59   +3      72.79     4.19     3.24     0.06     0.63    42.99     7.87P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             36   58   +9      72.46     4.12    10.29     0.04     0.44    42.66     8.76P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          37   58   +7      72.64     4.00    10.44     0.02     0.30    45.33    10.17P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         37   58   +6      69.93     3.97     5.55     0.01     0.08    19.97     3.39P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     37   54   +5      67.18     4.03     6.16     0.00     0.01     8.30     1.58P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            37   52   -7      63.10     3.93    -8.71     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        36   51   +7      65.75     4.30     8.41     0.00     0.00     5.42     1.10P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   36   50   +4      63.10     4.08     3.46     0.00     0.00     1.08     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          36   49   +4      63.21     4.24     4.64     0.00     0.00     1.46     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          36   48   -6      61.88     4.34    -5.83     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Watford          37   48  -12      58.97     4.00   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley         37   43  -15      52.74     3.85   -19.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.75R    0.00  
Peterborough     36   41   -4      53.54     4.35    -6.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81R    0.00  
Millwall         37   37  -12      48.24     3.95   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.97R    0.95  
Nott'm_Forest    36   35  -22      46.71     4.07   -24.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.86R    2.67  
Bristol_City     37   35  -27      45.16     3.78   -30.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.37R    5.29  
Coventry         37   31  -19      41.12     3.73   -22.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.58R   26.82  
Doncaster        36   31  -25      40.85     3.91   -30.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.27R   33.27  
Portsmouth       36   27   -6      40.51     4.11    -6.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.38R   31.00  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 March 2012, Bournemouth vs Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        37   79  +37      95.87     3.90    43.88    92.00    98.34   100.00    98.83P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       37   70  +29      86.57     3.96    35.35     4.48    47.32    99.94    64.64P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   70  +21      85.24     4.00    25.43     1.86    27.85    99.86    44.32P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    36   65  +30      83.01     4.26    36.57     1.37    18.01    99.38    45.32P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         36   63  +29      80.90     4.27    35.30     0.29     8.40    98.05    32.04P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    37   56   +7      69.22     4.08     8.32     0.00     0.00    20.34     2.62P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        35   56   -2      69.76     4.46    -4.31     0.00     0.02    24.77     2.94P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       35   55  +17      71.85     4.51    19.66     0.00     0.06    51.60     8.43P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester      36   50   +1      64.23     4.31     1.85     0.00     0.00     3.88     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       35   47   +3      62.34     4.47     3.44     0.00     0.00     1.82     0.26P    0.03R    0.00  
Hartlepool      37   47   -3      58.45     3.91    -4.23     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.16R    0.00  
Yeovil          37   46  -10      56.67     3.88   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.97R    0.00  
Bournemouth     36   45   -5      58.47     4.21    -5.34     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.31R    0.00  
Preston         36   45  -10      57.44     4.25   -12.05     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.97R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient   35   43  -12      55.76     4.34   -15.71     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    3.12R    0.04  
Tranmere        37   42   -5      53.87     3.90    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.11R    0.07  
Oldham          35   42  -11      55.46     4.46   -13.42     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    3.93R    0.06  
Scunthorpe      37   41   -4      53.38     4.07    -4.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.67R    0.13  
Bury            37   41  -21      51.03     3.96   -24.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.07R    0.70  
Walsall         36   37   -6      48.72     4.06    -8.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.93R    3.35  
Wycombe         37   36  -17      45.58     3.87   -21.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.38R   14.33  
Rochdale        37   34  -23      45.00     3.94   -24.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.92R   19.91  
Exeter          37   34  -25      44.25     3.91   -28.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.49R   26.76  
Chesterfield    37   33  -20      42.99     3.85   -23.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.93R   34.64  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 March 2012, Accrington_Stanley vs Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              36   73  +34      92.27     4.13    42.27    88.57    99.01   100.00    99.37P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              37   69  +15      82.92     4.00    17.33     4.05    52.51    98.87    64.68P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             37   67  +20      82.79     3.95    25.26     3.22    57.39    99.04    69.81P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           36   65  +17      82.22     4.24    22.05     2.72    49.61    98.31    64.52P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           37   64  +16      76.26     3.99    15.87     0.07     7.50    79.57    21.26P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         35   62  +16      79.94     4.64    20.33     1.35    29.74    93.47    44.27P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           36   58  +15      72.31     4.28    15.98     0.00     1.74    45.34    11.74P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           36   57  +14      73.21     4.34    17.80     0.01     2.34    55.87    17.22P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                37   55   +2      69.16     4.09     4.69     0.00     0.10    15.26     3.72P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            36   53   +9      67.50     4.22    10.19     0.00     0.06    10.07     2.47P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            37   50  +11      61.27     4.03     9.41     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            37   50   +3      64.10     4.02     5.63     0.00     0.00     1.65     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            36   50   -3      62.37     4.17    -4.79     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   36   49   -2      63.21     4.28    -1.22     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       36   45  -12      57.14     4.24   -14.53     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.05R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        37   44  -15      52.94     3.82   -20.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.74R    0.11  
Burton_Albion        36   43  -15      56.22     4.34   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.27R    0.04  
Bradford             36   39   -4      50.19     4.10    -7.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.31R    1.45  
Northampton          36   37  -20      47.97     4.15   -24.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.66R    7.01  
Barnet               36   37  -23      47.98     4.12   -27.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.25R    8.47  
Macclesfield         37   35  -13      44.77     3.81   -16.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.09R   19.21  
Plymouth             37   35  -17      47.08     4.00   -17.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.49R    8.78  
Hereford             37   35  -20      44.69     3.88   -24.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.75R   23.22  
Dag_&_Red            37   34  -28      44.09     3.93   -31.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.40R   31.70  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 March 2012, AFC_Telford vs Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     39   92  +52     103.93     3.45    55.60    58.61   100.00    71.71P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            37   86  +49     102.60     3.83    55.54    41.39   100.00    61.55P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          38   68  +26      81.08     3.72    29.35     0.00    80.10    10.90P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              36   66  +34      85.82     4.02    43.82     0.00    96.88    36.56P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          38   66   +3      76.24     3.75     1.61     0.00    22.32     1.42P    0.00     0.00  
York               36   64  +32      80.98     4.20    36.96     0.00    78.05    15.02P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      38   60  +13      72.29     3.72    14.91     0.00     5.24     0.71P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          37   60   +5      73.24     4.03     6.19     0.00     7.55     0.62P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            37   59  +18      72.82     3.99    20.27     0.00     7.75     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      36   55  +11      70.02     4.22    13.09     0.00     2.09     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             39   55   -5      64.55     3.55    -5.10     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     38   53   -4      62.41     3.70    -6.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       37   52  +12      63.84     3.90    11.27     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   46   -9      57.79     3.93   -10.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           37   43  -15      54.28     3.97   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Alfreton_Town      37   38  -23      46.21     3.71   -30.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.35R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        37   36  -18      46.29     3.96   -20.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.33R    0.02  
Stockport          39   35  -28      45.08     3.55   -27.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.84R    0.12  
Newport_County     35   34   -9      48.13     4.37   -10.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.02R    0.02  
Lincoln_City       37   33  -17      45.59     4.02   -16.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.65R    0.06  
Hayes_&_Yeading    37   33  -27      42.35     3.85   -32.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.42R    0.52  
Darlington         37   29  -17      41.13     3.89   -17.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.04R    1.90  
Kettering          38   26  -46      33.85     3.51   -51.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.87R   42.46  
Bath_City          37   24  -37      32.59     3.77   -42.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.47R   54.89  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10
Kettering          -3