Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 15 March 2012 at 23:50:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 13 March 2012, Liverpool vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         28   67  +41      89.72     3.58    56.40    69.44    99.92   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        28   66  +49      86.37     3.94    60.00    30.56    99.32    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       28   53  +18      71.26     4.14    25.14     0.00     0.26    41.30    77.67    99.77     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   52  +18      71.19     4.11    27.21     0.00     0.43    43.17    78.19    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   49  +16      67.64     3.94    24.24     0.00     0.06    15.37    41.75    98.15     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       28   44   -1      57.80     4.17    -1.01     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.52    31.75     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       28   42   +7      59.92     4.17    13.16     0.00     0.00     0.17     1.86    62.95     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      28   37   +5      50.15     4.08     4.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.69     0.00     0.00  
Everton         28   37   -3      51.34     4.20    -2.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.86     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          28   36   +0      49.16     4.01    -1.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.00     0.00  
Swansea         28   36   -3      47.84     4.02    -5.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.01R    0.00  
Norwich         28   36   -6      46.19     4.01   -12.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke           28   36  -12      47.98     4.06   -14.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom       28   35   -3      47.89     4.10    -4.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   33   -4      44.72     4.01    -7.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.07R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   25  -20      35.48     3.95   -26.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.40R    2.64  
Bolton          28   23  -26      34.72     4.20   -29.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.39R    4.83  
QPR             28   22  -19      29.74     3.56   -29.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.91R   27.55  
Wolverhampton   28   22  -28      30.92     3.85   -36.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.94R   23.72  
Wigan           28   21  -29      29.25     3.62   -38.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.24R   41.26  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 13 March 2012, Cardiff vs Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      36   69  +32      86.07     4.19    37.01    53.70    82.82    99.88    87.98P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          36   67  +18      82.34     4.20    20.42    15.56    42.26    98.08    58.01P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         35   66  +21      84.23     4.55    25.55    29.23    65.01    99.08    75.39P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    35   59   +6      73.91     4.38     5.90     0.43     2.18    52.47    11.59P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         36   58   +8      71.07     4.17     7.19     0.03     0.42    29.13     5.49P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             35   57   +9      72.73     4.35    10.21     0.21     1.28    44.48    10.29P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          36   57   +7      73.42     4.22    11.05     0.11     1.24    51.93    13.24P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       35   56  +19      74.27     4.47    23.65     0.61     3.78    63.36    23.22P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        36   56  +10      72.10     4.37    13.62     0.12     0.95    42.01    10.95P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     36   53   +5      67.50     4.29     6.11     0.00     0.04     9.84     1.88P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        36   51   +7      65.78     4.30     8.44     0.00     0.01     5.25     1.14P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   35   49   +4      63.46     4.31     3.49     0.00     0.00     1.72     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            36   49   -8      61.25     4.17   -10.02     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          35   48   +4      63.24     4.44     4.11     0.00     0.00     1.95     0.41P    0.00     0.00  
Watford          36   47  -12      59.71     4.23   -13.74     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          35   45   -7      60.50     4.61    -6.43     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley         36   43  -11      54.15     4.12   -14.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.62R    0.00  
Peterborough     35   41   -3      54.71     4.60    -5.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.73R    0.01  
Millwall         36   37  -11      49.39     4.19   -12.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.24R    0.84  
Nott'm_Forest    36   35  -22      46.67     4.08   -24.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.32R    3.69  
Bristol_City     36   34  -27      45.06     4.02   -30.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.79R    8.90  
Doncaster        35   31  -24      42.26     4.16   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.47R   25.65  
Coventry         36   30  -19      41.13     3.97   -22.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.30R   32.59  
Portsmouth       35   26   -6      41.43     4.37    -5.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.50R   28.31  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 13 March 2012, Colchester vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        36   78  +37      96.61     4.17    44.47    90.32    98.18   100.00    98.71P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       36   69  +29      87.72     4.17    36.51     6.49    55.70    99.93    70.23P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       36   67  +20      83.61     4.27    24.39     0.76    14.25    98.98    33.04P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    35   64  +30      83.78     4.53    37.17     1.85    20.12    99.11    47.05P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         35   62  +29      81.95     4.49    36.37     0.58    11.59    98.01    35.92P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    36   56   +8      70.62     4.32     9.35     0.00     0.01    26.77     3.64P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        34   55   -2      69.92     4.68    -4.64     0.00     0.02    22.11     2.74P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       34   54  +17      72.22     4.77    19.68     0.00     0.12    47.81     7.60P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester      35   49   +1      64.27     4.52     1.31     0.00     0.00     3.48     0.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       34   47   +5      63.97     4.68     5.83     0.00     0.00     3.37     0.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool      36   46   -3      58.82     4.15    -4.25     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.20R    0.00  
Bournemouth     35   44   -5      59.02     4.45    -5.06     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.37R    0.00  
Yeovil          36   43  -11      55.12     4.14   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.47R    0.03  
Oldham          34   42  -10      56.80     4.67   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    2.22R    0.02  
Preston         35   42  -11      55.81     4.52   -13.07     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    3.07R    0.02  
Tranmere        36   41   -5      53.46     4.09    -6.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.64R    0.06  
Bury            36   41  -18      52.89     4.26   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.74R    0.20  
Scunthorpe      36   40   -4      53.32     4.28    -4.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.69R    0.10  
Leyton_Orient   34   40  -14      53.85     4.55   -18.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    8.76R    0.19  
Walsall         35   37   -5      50.06     4.32    -7.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.44R    1.27  
Exeter          36   34  -24      45.68     4.16   -26.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.70R   13.46  
Wycombe         36   33  -20      43.38     4.11   -25.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.69R   26.69  
Chesterfield    36   32  -20      42.82     4.11   -24.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.90R   31.13  
Rochdale        36   31  -24      43.41     4.16   -25.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.10R   26.82  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 13 March 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              35   73  +36      94.31     4.38    45.33    93.33    99.65   100.00    99.79P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              36   66  +12      81.25     4.29    14.27     1.23    39.80    97.57    55.05P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           35   65  +18      83.94     4.45    23.56     3.70    68.40    99.44    77.72P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             36   64  +19      81.50     4.24    24.74     1.10    48.45    98.49    63.48P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           36   64  +19      77.96     4.29    19.35     0.24    18.29    90.71    32.93P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         34   59  +15      78.43     4.85    19.49     0.39    22.59    90.15    38.05P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   55  +14      70.73     4.51    15.06     0.00     1.11    39.84    10.01P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   54  +11      71.22     4.58    14.22     0.01     1.29    43.42    12.74P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            35   53  +10      68.80     4.41    11.05     0.00     0.36    22.35     5.75P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                36   52   +0      66.92     4.33     1.75     0.00     0.06     9.57     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            36   50   +4      65.38     4.27     6.50     0.00     0.02     6.04     1.65P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            36   47   +9      59.64     4.27     7.41     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            35   47   -4      60.87     4.38    -5.64     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   46   -3      61.92     4.50    -1.70     0.00     0.00     1.21     0.27P    0.00R    0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        36   44  -14      54.03     4.11   -20.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.53R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        35   43  -12      57.60     4.55   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.15R    0.03  
Bristol_Rovers       35   42  -13      55.92     4.51   -14.93     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.36R    0.05  
Bradford             35   39   -3      51.35     4.31    -7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.32R    0.75  
Northampton          35   37  -19      49.19     4.39   -24.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.57R    4.06  
Barnet               35   37  -21      49.26     4.33   -25.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.88R    4.49  
Macclesfield         36   35  -11      46.16     4.07   -14.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.76R   10.71  
Hereford             36   35  -19      45.71     4.12   -23.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.05R   14.43  
Plymouth             36   32  -18      45.04     4.25   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.90R   17.69  
Dag_&_Red            36   31  -30      42.41     4.17   -33.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.48R   47.72  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 13 March 2012, AFC_Telford vs Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     38   89  +49     102.77     3.72    53.26    49.73   100.00    65.09P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            37   86  +49     102.63     3.84    55.59    50.27   100.00    67.67P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              36   66  +34      85.91     4.01    44.03     0.00    97.81    37.13P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          37   65  +19      79.52     3.99    22.37     0.00    68.65     8.50P    0.00     0.00  
York               36   64  +32      81.02     4.22    37.06     0.00    81.83    15.79P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          37   63   -2      74.45     3.99    -3.70     0.00    15.99     0.93P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            36   58  +18      74.15     4.21    21.83     0.00    18.57     2.78P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      37   57  +10      70.63     4.00    11.81     0.00     3.99     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          36   57   +4      71.03     4.22     4.32     0.00     4.51     0.38P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      35   55  +12      71.87     4.49    14.77     0.00     8.09     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             38   55   +2      65.85     3.77     1.77     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     37   53   -1      63.94     4.01    -3.59     0.00     0.06     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       36   52  +14      66.00     4.13    14.53     0.00     0.33     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   36   43  -11      55.50     4.19   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           36   42  -15      53.95     4.19   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
AFC_Telford        36   36  -15      47.22     4.15   -18.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.10R    0.01  
Stockport          38   35  -23      46.64     3.84   -22.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.80R    0.05  
Alfreton_Town      36   35  -25      44.29     3.96   -32.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.76R    0.26  
Newport_County     35   34   -9      48.01     4.37   -10.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.83R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       36   33  -16      47.37     4.30   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.78R    0.04  
Hayes_&_Yeading    36   30  -29      39.82     4.03   -36.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.39R    2.64  
Darlington         36   29  -15      43.05     4.14   -14.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.80R    0.63  
Kettering          37   26  -44      35.53     3.82   -48.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.82R   19.84  
Bath_City          36   21  -38      30.64     3.98   -44.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.67R   76.53  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10
Kettering          -3