Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 12 March 2012 at 23:50:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 12 March 2012, Arsenal vs Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         28   67  +41      89.65     3.58    56.28    68.98    99.95   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        28   66  +49      86.36     3.94    59.93    31.01    99.36    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       28   53  +18      71.25     4.11    25.15     0.00     0.25    41.55    78.01    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         28   52  +18      71.16     4.12    27.18     0.00     0.40    43.03    78.14    99.80     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   49  +16      67.66     3.95    24.26     0.00     0.04    15.31    42.29    98.53     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       28   44   -1      57.84     4.17    -0.97     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.55    37.40     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   39   +4      58.38     4.42    10.23     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.96    50.13     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      28   37   +5      50.13     4.06     3.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.15     0.00R    0.00  
Everton         27   37   +0      52.58     4.38     0.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     8.18     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          28   36   +0      49.14     4.00    -1.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.41     0.00     0.00  
Swansea         28   36   -3      47.82     4.01    -5.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.00R    0.00  
Norwich         28   36   -6      46.19     4.00   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke           28   36  -12      48.05     4.06   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.00R    0.00  
West_Brom       28   35   -3      47.91     4.13    -4.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   33   -4      44.76     4.02    -7.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.08R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   25  -20      35.50     3.96   -26.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.26R    2.56  
Bolton          28   23  -26      34.74     4.18   -29.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.60R    4.58  
QPR             28   22  -19      29.69     3.55   -29.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.38R   27.62  
Wolverhampton   28   22  -28      30.88     3.84   -36.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.93R   23.68  
Wigan           28   21  -29      29.18     3.63   -39.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.70R   41.57  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 11 March 2012, Middlesbrough vs Leeds_United; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      36   69  +32      86.10     4.22    37.03    50.45    79.76    99.85    85.77P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         35   66  +21      84.26     4.56    25.60    27.58    60.49    98.97    71.77P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          35   66  +18      83.16     4.42    21.07    19.33    46.20    98.42    60.50P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    35   59   +6      73.89     4.38     5.88     0.35     1.84    51.18    10.44P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         36   58   +8      71.03     4.20     7.11     0.05     0.35    27.76     4.90P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          35   57  +10      75.37     4.44    14.93     0.55     3.32    68.52    18.88P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       34   56  +21      75.95     4.69    26.03     1.56     6.92    74.92    29.69P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        36   56  +10      72.07     4.36    13.59     0.09     0.72    40.28     9.99P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             34   54   +6      70.45     4.52     6.36     0.05     0.37    24.13     5.09P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     36   53   +5      67.49     4.29     6.05     0.00     0.03     9.56     1.78P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   35   49   +4      63.45     4.30     3.49     0.00     0.00     1.51     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        35   48   +5      63.81     4.55     6.00     0.00     0.00     2.51     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          35   48   +4      63.22     4.43     4.09     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Watford          36   47  -12      59.73     4.27   -13.76     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby            35   46   -9      59.74     4.41   -10.91     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          35   45   -7      60.49     4.59    -6.44     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley         36   43  -11      54.10     4.14   -14.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.68R    0.00  
Peterborough     35   41   -3      54.76     4.58    -5.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.76R    0.02  
Millwall         36   37  -11      49.44     4.17   -12.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.01R    0.90  
Nott'm_Forest    35   35  -21      48.00     4.34   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.29R    2.33  
Bristol_City     36   34  -27      45.02     3.99   -30.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.91R    8.85  
Coventry         36   30  -19      41.16     3.97   -22.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.40R   32.38  
Doncaster        34   30  -24      42.15     4.37   -30.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.09R   27.75  
Portsmouth       35   26   -6      41.47     4.35    -5.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.83R   27.77  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 March 2012, Brentford vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        36   78  +37      96.58     4.15    44.41    88.15    97.98   100.00    98.66P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       35   68  +29      88.43     4.44    37.03     8.81    60.09    99.94    73.28P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       36   67  +20      83.68     4.26    24.50     0.72    13.04    99.13    32.59P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    35   64  +30      83.79     4.50    37.17     1.73    18.28    99.23    45.85P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         35   62  +29      81.96     4.51    36.38     0.59    10.53    98.10    34.90P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    36   56   +8      70.60     4.33     9.32     0.00     0.01    30.47     4.22P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        34   55   -2      69.93     4.70    -4.62     0.00     0.01    24.95     2.96P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       33   51  +16      70.79     4.97    18.91     0.00     0.06    38.59     6.06P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester      34   48   +1      64.34     4.75     0.82     0.00     0.00     4.77     0.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       34   47   +5      63.83     4.70     5.63     0.00     0.00     3.91     0.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool      36   46   -3      58.86     4.17    -4.17     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.19R    0.00  
Bournemouth     35   44   -5      59.04     4.48    -5.03     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    0.33R    0.00  
Oldham          33   42   -9      57.93     4.87   -11.76     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.03P    1.54R    0.01  
Preston         34   42  -10      57.22     4.74   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P    1.86R    0.00  
Yeovil          35   42  -11      55.42     4.38   -13.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.61R    0.05  
Bury            36   41  -18      52.92     4.23   -20.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.82R    0.20  
Leyton_Orient   34   40  -14      53.85     4.53   -18.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.35R    0.17  
Scunthorpe      35   39   -4      53.72     4.50    -4.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.03R    0.13  
Tranmere        35   38   -6      51.79     4.36    -7.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.54R    0.38  
Walsall         35   37   -5      50.15     4.31    -7.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.92R    1.16  
Exeter          36   34  -24      45.67     4.15   -26.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.69R   13.28  
Wycombe         36   33  -20      43.39     4.12   -25.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.05R   26.50  
Chesterfield    36   32  -20      42.81     4.08   -24.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.40R   31.12  
Rochdale        36   31  -24      43.37     4.20   -25.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.66R   26.99  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 March 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              35   73  +36      94.31     4.37    45.38    93.67    99.71   100.00    99.82P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           35   65  +18      83.90     4.49    23.49     3.63    69.59    99.28    78.42P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             36   64  +19      81.45     4.22    24.67     1.10    50.84    98.38    64.94P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           36   64  +19      77.98     4.26    19.38     0.20    19.64    90.55    34.32P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              35   63  +11      79.41     4.54    12.98     0.69    26.91    93.20    43.78P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         33   58  +15      79.12     5.08    19.97     0.70    29.81    91.01    44.14P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   55  +14      70.83     4.53    15.20     0.01     1.46    39.72    10.54P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   54  +11      71.13     4.59    14.08     0.01     1.43    41.93    12.11P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            35   53  +10      68.79     4.43    11.07     0.00     0.42    21.91     5.92P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                36   52   +0      66.92     4.30     1.75     0.00     0.07     9.21     2.19P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   50   +5      66.98     4.50     7.87     0.00     0.12    12.17     3.22P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            36   47   +9      59.59     4.23     7.33     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   46   -3      62.02     4.54    -1.55     0.00     0.00     1.28     0.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            34   46   -4      60.85     4.57    -6.19     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   43  -12      57.67     4.54   -12.71     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    0.15R    0.03  
Bristol_Rovers       35   42  -13      55.89     4.50   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.39R    0.08  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   41  -16      52.10     4.31   -22.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.86R    0.67  
Bradford             34   39   -1      52.99     4.58    -4.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.00R    0.50  
Barnet               35   37  -21      49.33     4.37   -25.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.16R    4.90  
Macclesfield         36   35  -11      46.15     4.09   -14.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.52R   11.89  
Hereford             36   35  -19      45.70     4.10   -23.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.36R   16.31  
Northampton          34   34  -20      47.30     4.62   -25.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.74R   12.37  
Plymouth             36   32  -18      45.05     4.24   -18.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.11R   19.88  
Dag_&_Red            35   31  -29      44.10     4.46   -32.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.69R   33.38  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 March 2012, AFC_Telford vs Southport; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     37   88  +49     103.40     3.97    53.68    65.14   100.00    75.74P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            36   83  +44     101.12     4.10    50.73    34.84   100.00    56.26P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              35   65  +34      86.62     4.24    44.44     0.02    97.56    38.68P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          36   64  +19      79.74     4.28    22.10     0.00    65.72     8.22P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          36   62   -2      75.38     4.25    -2.84     0.00    22.17     1.25P    0.00     0.00  
York               35   61  +31      79.17     4.46    35.67     0.00    64.26    12.65P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            35   58  +19      75.70     4.47    23.12     0.00    30.59     4.79P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      36   57  +11      72.30     4.26    13.30     0.00     9.06     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          36   57   +4      71.07     4.23     4.39     0.00     4.43     0.37P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             37   55   +3      66.89     4.04     2.29     0.00     0.49     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     37   53   -1      63.90     3.99    -3.62     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       36   52  +14      65.98     4.14    14.50     0.00     0.31     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      34   52  +11      70.67     4.67    14.38     0.00     5.37     0.75P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   43   -6      56.83     4.39    -8.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           36   42  -15      53.94     4.18   -17.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          38   35  -23      46.65     3.83   -22.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.15R    0.04  
Alfreton_Town      36   35  -25      44.29     3.98   -32.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.75R    0.25  
Newport_County     35   34   -9      48.10     4.37   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.52R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       36   33  -16      47.25     4.25   -15.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.43R    0.05  
AFC_Telford        35   33  -16      45.18     4.40   -20.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.66R    0.10  
Hayes_&_Yeading    36   30  -29      39.86     4.00   -36.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.10R    2.52  
Darlington         35   28  -15      42.94     4.37   -14.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.29R    0.82  
Kettering          36   25  -44      35.36     4.02   -49.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.67R   21.77  
Bath_City          36   21  -38      30.69     4.01   -44.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.41R   74.44  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10
Kettering          -3