Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 11 March 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 March 2012, Aston_Villa vs Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        27   66  +50      88.63     4.17    62.37    48.51    99.77    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         27   64  +39      89.22     3.74    56.57    51.49    99.91   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       28   53  +18      71.37     4.14    25.31     0.00     0.14    45.72    79.92    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   49  +17      70.33     4.31    27.53     0.00     0.15    37.70    73.33    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         28   49  +16      67.66     3.96    24.25     0.00     0.03    16.27    44.10    98.31     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       27   44   +0      58.44     4.34    -1.41     0.00     0.00     0.18     1.40    41.29     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       27   39   +4      58.43     4.41    10.32     0.00     0.00     0.15     1.23    48.09     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      28   37   +5      50.13     4.05     3.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.92     0.00R    0.00  
Everton         27   37   +0      52.56     4.37     0.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     7.35     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          28   36   +0      49.15     4.01    -1.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           28   36  -12      48.03     4.05   -14.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom       27   35   -1      48.28     4.25    -4.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.02R    0.00  
Norwich         27   35   -6      47.18     4.26   -11.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   33   -4      44.64     4.02    -7.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.09R    0.00  
Swansea         27   33   -4      45.44     4.20    -8.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.14R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   25  -20      35.49     3.97   -26.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.92R    2.40  
Bolton          28   23  -26      34.72     4.20   -29.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.15R    4.54  
QPR             28   22  -19      29.66     3.58   -29.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.40R   27.06  
Wolverhampton   28   22  -28      30.92     3.88   -36.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.60R   22.75  
Wigan           27   20  -29      29.00     3.83   -40.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.64R   43.24  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 March 2012, Brighton vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      36   69  +32      86.10     4.21    37.05    50.09    78.81    99.83    85.16P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         35   66  +21      84.25     4.58    25.58    27.17    59.34    98.72    70.83P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          35   66  +18      83.22     4.42    21.17    19.40    45.56    98.21    60.07P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    34   59   +8      75.87     4.64     8.78     1.21     4.90    66.65    16.43P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         36   58   +8      70.99     4.20     7.08     0.04     0.35    25.84     4.71P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          35   57  +10      75.38     4.45    14.90     0.51     3.27    66.94    18.41P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       34   56  +21      75.94     4.69    26.07     1.46     6.72    73.20    28.56P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        36   56  +10      72.07     4.36    13.62     0.08     0.73    38.15     9.41P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             34   54   +6      70.41     4.52     6.30     0.04     0.31    22.33     4.53P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     35   50   +3      65.35     4.46     3.26     0.00     0.00     4.14     0.73P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   35   49   +4      63.50     4.28     3.58     0.00     0.00     1.50     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        35   48   +5      63.82     4.52     5.98     0.00     0.00     2.24     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          35   48   +4      63.26     4.47     4.13     0.00     0.00     1.72     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Watford          36   47  -12      59.68     4.28   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby            35   46   -9      59.71     4.41   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Ipswich          35   45   -7      60.46     4.59    -6.46     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley         36   43  -11      54.08     4.12   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.61R    0.01  
Peterborough     35   41   -3      54.74     4.58    -5.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81R    0.02  
Millwall         36   37  -11      49.44     4.21   -12.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.20R    0.87  
Nott'm_Forest    35   35  -21      48.05     4.29   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.60R    2.13  
Bristol_City     36   34  -27      45.01     4.01   -31.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.13R    8.92  
Coventry         36   30  -19      41.13     3.99   -22.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.70R   32.54  
Doncaster        34   30  -24      42.15     4.36   -30.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.25R   27.48  
Portsmouth       35   26   -6      41.45     4.33    -5.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.66R   28.03  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 March 2012, Brentford vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        36   78  +37      96.58     4.16    44.41    88.23    97.87   100.00    98.55P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       35   68  +29      88.32     4.44    36.87     8.79    59.82    99.94    73.16P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       36   67  +20      83.58     4.27    24.38     0.64    13.00    99.06    32.44P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    35   64  +30      83.75     4.51    37.10     1.73    18.53    99.21    46.02P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         35   62  +29      81.92     4.49    36.30     0.61    10.68    98.34    35.02P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    36   56   +8      70.59     4.28     9.31     0.00     0.01    29.93     4.04P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        34   55   -2      69.94     4.70    -4.62     0.00     0.02    24.57     2.97P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       33   51  +16      70.91     4.99    19.11     0.00     0.07    39.28     6.35P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester      34   48   +1      64.39     4.77     0.89     0.00     0.00     4.97     0.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       34   47   +5      63.82     4.70     5.59     0.00     0.00     3.79     0.54P    0.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool      36   46   -3      58.88     4.17    -4.18     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.21R    0.00  
Bournemouth     35   44   -5      59.11     4.48    -4.96     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P    0.34R    0.00  
Oldham          33   42   -9      57.91     4.89   -11.77     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.03P    1.51R    0.01  
Preston         34   42  -10      57.20     4.76   -12.04     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    1.89R    0.02  
Yeovil          35   42  -11      55.43     4.39   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    3.55R    0.04  
Bury            36   41  -18      52.88     4.23   -20.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.19R    0.21  
Leyton_Orient   34   40  -14      53.92     4.56   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    8.24R    0.20  
Scunthorpe      35   39   -4      53.69     4.51    -4.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.21R    0.15  
Tranmere        35   38   -6      51.84     4.34    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.99R    0.40  
Walsall         35   37   -5      50.14     4.30    -7.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.16R    1.11  
Exeter          36   34  -24      45.69     4.16   -26.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.57R   13.30  
Wycombe         36   33  -20      43.45     4.11   -25.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.67R   26.33  
Chesterfield    36   32  -20      42.81     4.08   -24.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.61R   30.84  
Rochdale        36   31  -24      43.32     4.16   -26.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.85R   27.38  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 March 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              35   73  +36      94.40     4.38    45.44    93.69    99.73   100.00    99.83P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           35   65  +18      83.95     4.46    23.55     3.72    70.15    99.36    78.89P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             36   64  +19      81.43     4.21    24.63     1.05    50.38    98.33    64.62P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           36   64  +19      77.99     4.25    19.41     0.18    19.64    90.78    34.46P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              35   63  +11      79.43     4.49    13.01     0.67    27.02    93.26    43.78P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         33   58  +15      79.13     5.06    20.00     0.67    29.52    90.96    44.03P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           35   55  +14      70.82     4.53    15.22     0.01     1.47    39.68    10.33P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           35   54  +11      71.16     4.56    14.11     0.00     1.52    42.33    12.61P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            35   53  +10      68.74     4.41    11.01     0.00     0.38    21.51     5.51P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                36   52   +0      66.86     4.33     1.68     0.00     0.07     9.11     2.14P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            35   50   +5      66.97     4.49     7.85     0.00     0.12    11.93     3.20P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            36   47   +9      59.67     4.24     7.45     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   35   46   -3      61.96     4.54    -1.62     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            34   46   -4      60.85     4.59    -6.17     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   43  -12      57.69     4.57   -12.71     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.14R    0.02  
Bristol_Rovers       35   42  -13      55.98     4.52   -14.86     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.37R    0.06  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   41  -16      52.16     4.33   -22.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.80R    0.52  
Bradford             34   39   -1      52.99     4.62    -4.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.04R    0.49  
Barnet               35   37  -21      49.25     4.34   -25.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.90R    4.69  
Macclesfield         36   35  -11      46.12     4.07   -14.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.45R   11.88  
Hereford             36   35  -19      45.76     4.11   -23.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.84R   16.11  
Northampton          34   34  -20      47.19     4.59   -25.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.04R   12.41  
Plymouth             36   32  -18      45.05     4.27   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.15R   19.73  
Dag_&_Red            35   31  -29      43.99     4.42   -32.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.27R   34.10  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 10 March 2012, AFC_Telford vs Southport; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     37   88  +49     103.43     3.98    53.69    65.69   100.00    75.95P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            36   83  +44     101.05     4.12    50.62    34.30   100.00    56.04P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              35   65  +34      86.67     4.25    44.50     0.01    97.67    38.76P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          36   64  +19      79.72     4.25    22.05     0.00    66.10     8.26P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          36   62   -2      75.32     4.24    -2.96     0.00    22.17     1.34P    0.00     0.00  
York               35   61  +31      79.09     4.46    35.57     0.00    63.33    12.34P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            35   58  +19      75.73     4.46    23.15     0.00    30.84     4.74P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      36   57  +11      72.34     4.22    13.38     0.00     9.06     1.19P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          36   57   +4      71.03     4.23     4.31     0.00     4.39     0.41P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             37   55   +3      66.89     4.01     2.30     0.00     0.47     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     37   53   -1      63.92     3.98    -3.57     0.00     0.06     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       36   52  +14      66.02     4.12    14.57     0.00     0.31     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      34   52  +11      70.65     4.73    14.34     0.00     5.61     0.90P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   43   -6      56.83     4.39    -8.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           36   42  -15      53.94     4.17   -17.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          38   35  -23      46.63     3.83   -22.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.38R    0.06  
Alfreton_Town      36   35  -25      44.36     3.98   -32.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.31R    0.43  
Newport_County     35   34   -9      48.19     4.37   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.86R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       36   33  -16      47.28     4.23   -15.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.16R    0.07  
AFC_Telford        35   33  -16      45.13     4.37   -20.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.00R    0.21  
Hayes_&_Yeading    36   30  -29      39.87     3.99   -35.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.58R    3.69  
Darlington         35   28  -15      42.92     4.39   -14.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.42R    1.10  
Kettering          36   28  -44      38.38     4.04   -49.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.50R    8.88  
Bath_City          36   21  -38      30.66     3.98   -44.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.76R   85.55  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10