Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 10 March 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 March 2012, Fulham vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        27   66  +50      88.58     4.20    62.28    48.37    99.55    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         27   64  +39      89.20     3.75    56.61    51.62    99.76    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       27   53  +19      72.85     4.35    26.58     0.01     0.54    56.90    86.60    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   49  +17      70.31     4.33    27.50     0.00     0.13    31.28    72.20    99.17     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   46  +15      66.99     4.14    24.78     0.00     0.01    11.31    36.82    96.57     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       27   44   +0      58.48     4.36    -1.32     0.00     0.00     0.15     1.35    35.98     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   39   +5      60.08     4.65    11.71     0.00     0.00     0.39     3.02    59.64     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   36   +1      50.55     4.28     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.32     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           27   36  -11      48.53     4.21   -15.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.02R    0.00  
West_Brom       27   35   -1      48.27     4.24    -4.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.02R    0.00  
Norwich         27   35   -6      47.12     4.27   -11.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.02R    0.00  
Sunderland      27   34   +4      48.19     4.31     2.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.02R    0.00  
Everton         26   34   -1      50.83     4.62    -0.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.47     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         27   33   -4      45.43     4.20    -8.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.09R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   30   -5      43.11     4.25    -8.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.56R    0.00  
QPR             27   22  -18      30.78     3.84   -29.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.60R   20.22  
Blackburn       27   22  -22      33.56     4.20   -28.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.10R    9.11  
Wolverhampton   27   22  -26      32.58     4.14   -33.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.26R   14.31  
Bolton          27   20  -27      33.44     4.45   -29.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.80R   10.29  
Wigan           27   20  -29      29.03     3.86   -40.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.51R   46.06  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 7 March 2012, Brighton vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      35   66  +30      85.17     4.44    36.16    39.71    72.14    99.45    79.98P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         34   65  +21      85.73     4.76    27.34    41.85    72.25    99.22    80.19P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          34   63  +16      81.80     4.66    19.46    13.44    34.46    95.29    50.57P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    34   59   +8      75.85     4.61     8.73     1.22     5.11    65.29    16.33P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        35   56  +12      73.99     4.63    16.51     0.49     2.66    54.83    15.26P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       33   55  +21      76.89     4.89    26.84     2.83    10.35    77.48    32.51P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         35   55   +6      69.26     4.41     4.93     0.02     0.18    15.16     2.69P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          34   54   +9      73.93     4.70    14.18     0.34     2.11    52.68    14.07P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             33   53   +6      71.15     4.75     6.86     0.10     0.68    27.37     5.89P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     35   50   +3      65.29     4.50     3.21     0.00     0.01     3.99     0.74P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        34   48   +7      65.02     4.72     7.76     0.01     0.03     4.13     0.88P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   34   48   +4      63.52     4.49     3.08     0.00     0.00     1.64     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          34   47   +4      63.90     4.68     4.54     0.00     0.01     2.51     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            34   46   -8      61.49     4.64    -9.32     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          34   44   -7      60.33     4.80    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Watford          35   44  -13      57.82     4.49   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.13R    0.00  
Barnsley         35   43   -9      54.86     4.28   -14.04     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.52R    0.01  
Peterborough     34   38   -5      52.77     4.85    -8.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.50R    0.15  
Millwall         35   37   -9      50.84     4.41   -10.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.74R    0.38  
Bristol_City     35   34  -26      46.09     4.25   -30.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.01R    6.37  
Nott'm_Forest    34   32  -23      46.30     4.53   -25.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.57R    5.78  
Coventry         35   29  -19      41.08     4.19   -23.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.62R   32.85  
Doncaster        33   29  -24      41.42     4.47   -32.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.17R   34.59  
Portsmouth       34   26   -4      42.69     4.56    -3.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.72R   19.87  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 March 2012, Brentford vs Exeter; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        35   78  +39      98.73     4.39    47.58    94.69    99.23   100.00    99.48P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       34   65  +27      86.90     4.65    35.11     3.03    48.01    99.86    64.95P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       35   64  +17      82.10     4.50    21.60     0.21    10.31    98.15    29.42P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    34   63  +30      85.03     4.69    38.50     1.86    32.56    99.67    56.45P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         34   59  +26      80.94     4.73    34.29     0.21     9.64    97.35    33.45P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    35   53   +6      68.04     4.49     5.94     0.00     0.01    15.71     2.16P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        33   52   -5      68.32     4.91    -7.58     0.00     0.02    18.49     2.12P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       32   50  +16      71.81     5.21    19.90     0.00     0.21    52.23     8.92P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   47   +7      65.21     4.94     7.62     0.00     0.00     8.24     1.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester      33   47   +1      65.07     5.00     1.33     0.00     0.01     7.61     1.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool      35   45   -3      59.03     4.38    -4.47     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.03P    0.32R    0.00  
Bournemouth     34   44   -2      60.30     4.72    -2.21     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.14P    0.20R    0.00  
Oldham          32   42   -8      59.72     5.11   -10.12     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.13P    0.73R    0.00  
Preston         33   41  -10      57.77     5.02   -11.77     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.06P    1.96R    0.01  
Bury            35   41  -15      54.05     4.50   -18.30     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    7.81R    0.12  
Leyton_Orient   33   40  -12      55.33     4.79   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    5.32R    0.09  
Yeovil          34   39  -12      53.56     4.59   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.22R    0.30  
Scunthorpe      34   38   -4      54.03     4.76    -4.87     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.38R    0.16  
Walsall         34   36   -5      50.65     4.53    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.80R    1.06  
Tranmere        34   35   -8      50.03     4.55    -9.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.54R    1.35  
Exeter          35   34  -21      46.54     4.34   -24.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.27R    8.99  
Wycombe         35   32  -20      43.57     4.35   -26.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.89R   24.92  
Chesterfield    35   31  -20      42.63     4.28   -25.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.28R   31.92  
Rochdale        35   30  -24      42.84     4.32   -27.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.27R   31.07  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 March 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              34   70  +35      93.35     4.58    45.37    89.50    99.04   100.00    99.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           35   64  +20      78.78     4.44    19.50     0.73    22.03    88.61    35.69P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             35   63  +19      82.28     4.45    25.36     2.73    53.09    97.63    66.15P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   62  +17      82.87     4.69    23.43     3.63    56.50    97.58    68.83P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              34   62  +11      80.26     4.73    13.69     1.74    30.39    91.91    45.96P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         32   57  +15      79.78     5.29    20.38     1.58    31.54    88.91    44.71P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55  +15      72.32     4.75    16.41     0.03     2.69    43.30    12.05P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   54  +12      72.98     4.81    15.79     0.05     3.41    48.91    15.75P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            34   53  +11      70.95     4.64    13.25     0.01     1.23    30.65     8.40P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                35   49   -1      64.94     4.54     0.17     0.00     0.01     3.37     0.82P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            35   47  +10      61.58     4.49     9.24     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            34   47   +4      65.59     4.75     7.22     0.00     0.05     5.76     1.52P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            33   46   -2      62.44     4.82    -3.83     0.00     0.01     1.25     0.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   34   45   -3      61.95     4.72    -2.20     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   43  -11      58.57     4.74   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.06R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       34   41  -13      55.72     4.68   -15.79     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.34R    0.07  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   38  -17      50.49     4.54   -23.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    5.87R    1.72  
Bradford             33   36   -2      51.06     4.80    -5.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    4.06R    1.24  
Macclesfield         35   34  -11      46.26     4.29   -15.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.83R    8.84  
Barnet               34   34  -22      46.87     4.52   -27.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.56R   10.65  
Plymouth             35   32  -17      46.22     4.49   -18.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.16R   10.84  
Hereford             35   32  -20      43.51     4.32   -25.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.42R   28.58  
Northampton          33   31  -22      45.33     4.78   -28.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.45R   19.67  
Dag_&_Red            34   31  -28      45.49     4.68   -31.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.23R   18.39  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 9 March 2012, Kidderminster vs Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     37   88  +49     103.49     3.99    53.80    70.57   100.00    79.68P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            35   80  +42     100.20     4.30    49.80    29.39   100.00    52.98P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              35   65  +34      86.55     4.28    44.39     0.03    97.99    37.97P    0.00     0.00  
York               35   61  +31      79.24     4.44    35.79     0.00    70.16    13.64P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          35   61  +18      78.26     4.52    21.29     0.00    57.79     7.20P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          35   59   -3      73.61     4.46    -4.06     0.00    16.47     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      36   57  +11      72.43     4.28    13.49     0.00    12.01     1.54P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          35   57   +6      72.51     4.48     6.45     0.00    11.54     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            34   55  +18      74.46     4.70    22.73     0.00    27.17     4.30P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             36   55   +5      67.70     4.18     3.42     0.00     1.33     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       35   52  +15      67.01     4.36    14.98     0.00     1.36     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     36   50   -3      62.23     4.25    -5.74     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      33   49  +10      68.87     4.94    13.13     0.00     4.14     0.60P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   43   -6      56.85     4.39    -8.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           35   42  -14      55.14     4.43   -17.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          37   35  -22      48.00     4.09   -21.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.98R    0.04  
Newport_County     35   34   -9      48.01     4.37   -10.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.94R    0.02  
Lincoln_City       35   33  -15      49.54     4.52   -12.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.17R    0.02  
AFC_Telford        34   33  -15      46.64     4.62   -19.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.22R    0.10  
Alfreton_Town      35   32  -26      42.01     4.18   -35.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.51R    1.80  
Darlington         35   28  -15      42.96     4.38   -14.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.39R    1.01  
Kettering          35   28  -43      39.62     4.26   -48.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.82R    5.42  
Hayes_&_Yeading    35   27  -30      38.42     4.28   -36.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.47R    7.68  
Bath_City          36   21  -38      30.59     3.97   -44.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.48R   83.91  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10