Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 9 March 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 March 2012, Fulham vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        27   66  +50      88.68     4.16    62.44    48.82    99.58    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         27   64  +39      89.23     3.76    56.62    51.17    99.79    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       27   53  +19      72.90     4.36    26.65     0.00     0.49    57.38    86.97    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   49  +17      70.29     4.34    27.46     0.00     0.12    31.01    72.21    99.23     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   46  +15      66.91     4.14    24.66     0.00     0.02    11.00    36.20    96.35     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       27   44   +0      58.53     4.35    -1.25     0.00     0.00     0.17     1.38    36.25     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   39   +5      60.13     4.64    11.80     0.00     0.00     0.45     3.19    59.47     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   36   +1      50.51     4.28    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.36     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           27   36  -11      48.46     4.20   -15.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.63     0.00R    0.00  
West_Brom       27   35   -1      48.30     4.25    -4.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.01R    0.00  
Norwich         27   35   -6      47.09     4.26   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      27   34   +4      48.20     4.29     2.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.01R    0.00  
Everton         26   34   -1      50.81     4.66    -0.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     3.52     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         27   33   -4      45.29     4.20    -8.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.16R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   30   -5      43.14     4.30    -8.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.48R    0.00  
QPR             27   22  -18      30.82     3.83   -29.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.21R   20.07  
Blackburn       27   22  -22      33.55     4.17   -28.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.18R    8.86  
Wolverhampton   27   22  -26      32.63     4.16   -33.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.99R   14.39  
Bolton          27   20  -27      33.41     4.44   -29.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.32R   10.31  
Wigan           27   20  -29      29.00     3.86   -40.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.60R   46.36  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 7 March 2012, Brighton vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      35   66  +30      85.07     4.41    36.01    38.53    71.31    99.46    79.32P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         34   65  +21      85.79     4.70    27.44    42.34    72.68    99.30    80.45P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          34   63  +16      81.86     4.67    19.53    13.89    35.28    95.60    51.18P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    34   59   +8      75.89     4.64     8.79     1.29     5.02    65.48    16.31P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        35   56  +12      74.00     4.63    16.48     0.46     2.43    55.02    15.31P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       33   55  +21      76.87     4.88    26.85     2.97    10.26    77.61    32.34P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         35   55   +6      69.24     4.42     4.92     0.02     0.17    15.04     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          34   54   +9      73.90     4.70    14.15     0.38     2.17    52.47    14.05P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             33   53   +6      71.16     4.75     6.87     0.12     0.63    27.20     5.92P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     35   50   +3      65.33     4.49     3.21     0.00     0.01     3.90     0.76P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        34   48   +7      64.93     4.71     7.63     0.00     0.02     4.00     0.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   34   48   +4      63.47     4.47     3.02     0.00     0.01     1.50     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          34   47   +4      63.91     4.66     4.52     0.00     0.00     2.39     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            34   46   -8      61.55     4.67    -9.26     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          34   44   -7      60.33     4.82    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.07P    0.03R    0.00  
Watford          35   44  -13      57.83     4.48   -15.16     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.12R    0.00  
Barnsley         35   43   -9      54.82     4.28   -14.09     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.56R    0.01  
Peterborough     34   38   -5      52.74     4.85    -8.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.43R    0.19  
Millwall         35   37   -9      50.88     4.42   -10.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.76R    0.48  
Bristol_City     35   34  -26      46.01     4.20   -30.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.56R    6.59  
Nott'm_Forest    34   32  -23      46.33     4.56   -25.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.62R    5.93  
Coventry         35   29  -19      41.06     4.18   -23.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.86R   33.39  
Doncaster        33   29  -24      41.43     4.47   -32.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.22R   34.31  
Portsmouth       34   26   -4      42.81     4.57    -3.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.83R   19.12  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 March 2012, Brentford vs Exeter; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        35   78  +39      98.82     4.36    47.74    94.68    99.22   100.00    99.49P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       34   65  +27      86.90     4.70    35.18     3.05    48.33    99.86    65.91P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       35   64  +17      82.07     4.50    21.52     0.18    10.15    98.04    29.02P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    34   63  +30      85.04     4.70    38.54     1.93    32.68    99.61    56.12P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         34   59  +26      80.91     4.70    34.24     0.16     9.38    97.19    33.31P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    35   53   +6      68.06     4.49     5.95     0.00     0.01    15.95     2.23P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        33   52   -5      68.32     4.97    -7.59     0.00     0.03    18.45     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       32   50  +16      71.87     5.18    19.99     0.00     0.20    52.45     8.67P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   47   +7      65.27     4.95     7.70     0.00     0.00     8.43     1.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Colchester      33   47   +1      65.00     4.99     1.24     0.00     0.00     7.45     1.16P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool      35   45   -3      59.08     4.42    -4.43     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P    0.35R    0.00  
Bournemouth     34   44   -2      60.26     4.68    -2.27     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.14P    0.19R    0.00  
Oldham          32   42   -8      59.64     5.13   -10.26     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.12P    0.83R    0.01  
Preston         33   41  -10      57.73     5.00   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P    2.10R    0.02  
Bury            35   41  -15      54.18     4.48   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     7.32R    0.12  
Leyton_Orient   33   40  -12      55.31     4.75   -15.99     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    5.28R    0.07  
Yeovil          34   39  -12      53.47     4.57   -15.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.51R    0.26  
Scunthorpe      34   38   -4      53.93     4.80    -5.04     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.75R    0.20  
Walsall         34   36   -5      50.61     4.54    -7.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.34R    1.15  
Tranmere        34   35   -8      50.06     4.63    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.61R    1.41  
Exeter          35   34  -21      46.60     4.34   -24.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.55R    8.95  
Wycombe         35   32  -20      43.62     4.39   -26.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.57R   24.36  
Chesterfield    35   31  -20      42.59     4.33   -25.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.09R   32.49  
Rochdale        35   30  -24      42.86     4.32   -27.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.50R   30.95  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 March 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              34   70  +35      93.32     4.59    45.31    89.12    99.02   100.00    99.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           35   64  +20      78.77     4.44    19.48     0.81    21.92    88.54    35.11P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             35   63  +19      82.37     4.43    25.46     2.93    53.63    97.78    66.77P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   62  +17      82.86     4.73    23.40     3.83    56.00    97.38    67.96P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              34   62  +11      80.35     4.72    13.81     1.61    30.60    92.03    46.13P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         32   57  +15      79.79     5.31    20.38     1.64    31.48    88.93    44.70P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55  +15      72.40     4.75    16.51     0.02     2.69    44.14    12.54P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   54  +12      73.04     4.82    15.87     0.03     3.34    49.15    16.05P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            34   53  +11      70.86     4.63    13.14     0.01     1.24    29.80     8.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                35   49   -1      64.84     4.53     0.02     0.00     0.02     3.14     0.79P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            35   47  +10      61.60     4.51     9.26     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            34   47   +4      65.57     4.75     7.21     0.00     0.05     5.62     1.57P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            33   46   -2      62.51     4.85    -3.72     0.00     0.01     1.41     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   34   45   -3      61.84     4.72    -2.36     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   43  -11      58.47     4.74   -12.65     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P    0.07R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers       34   41  -13      55.77     4.67   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.32R    0.04  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   38  -17      50.51     4.56   -23.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.82R    1.78  
Bradford             33   36   -2      51.11     4.83    -5.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.19R    1.22  
Macclesfield         35   34  -11      46.29     4.32   -15.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.85R    8.90  
Barnet               34   34  -22      46.82     4.51   -27.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.05R   10.81  
Plymouth             35   32  -17      46.21     4.48   -18.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.79R   10.86  
Hereford             35   32  -20      43.50     4.28   -25.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.21R   28.30  
Northampton          33   31  -22      45.37     4.85   -27.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.84R   19.75  
Dag_&_Red            34   31  -28      45.53     4.68   -31.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.86R   18.32  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 7 March 2012, Wrexham vs Luton; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     36   85  +47     101.74     4.28    51.59    59.68   100.00    71.60P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            35   80  +42     100.20     4.32    49.78    40.23   100.00    59.65P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              35   65  +34      86.68     4.24    44.57     0.09    97.98    38.56P    0.00     0.00  
York               35   61  +31      79.25     4.45    35.79     0.00    68.64    13.44P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          35   61  +18      78.34     4.51    21.46     0.00    56.36     7.30P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          35   59   -3      73.56     4.46    -4.17     0.00    15.46     0.86P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      35   57  +13      73.87     4.51    15.60     0.00    19.44     2.76P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          35   57   +6      72.45     4.46     6.38     0.00    10.32     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            34   55  +18      74.48     4.66    22.77     0.00    25.72     4.08P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             36   55   +5      67.63     4.18     3.34     0.00     1.15     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       35   52  +15      66.93     4.38    14.82     0.00     1.15     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     36   50   -3      62.19     4.25    -5.77     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      33   49  +10      68.94     4.94    13.24     0.00     3.73     0.60P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   43   -6      56.86     4.38    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           35   42  -14      55.09     4.44   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          37   35  -22      47.99     4.12   -21.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.02R    0.03  
Newport_County     35   34   -9      48.04     4.37   -10.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.94R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       35   33  -15      49.58     4.51   -12.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.09R    0.02  
AFC_Telford        34   33  -15      46.74     4.65   -19.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.21R    0.09  
Alfreton_Town      35   32  -26      41.98     4.15   -35.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.52R    1.85  
Darlington         35   28  -15      42.88     4.35   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.82R    1.05  
Kettering          35   28  -43      39.58     4.26   -48.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.94R    5.73  
Hayes_&_Yeading    35   27  -30      38.47     4.29   -36.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.91R    7.50  
Bath_City          36   21  -38      30.63     4.00   -44.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.52R   83.72  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10