Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 8 March 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 March 2012, Fulham vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        27   66  +50      88.65     4.16    62.44    48.59    99.55    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         27   64  +39      89.26     3.76    56.69    51.40    99.78   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       27   53  +19      72.92     4.37    26.63     0.01     0.51    57.65    87.08    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   49  +17      70.28     4.32    27.45     0.00     0.13    30.76    72.42    99.22     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   46  +15      66.89     4.15    24.60     0.00     0.02    11.09    36.20    96.40     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       27   44   +0      58.43     4.36    -1.42     0.00     0.00     0.13     1.31    35.72     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   39   +5      60.09     4.64    11.76     0.00     0.00     0.38     2.95    59.74     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   36   +1      50.58     4.27     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.51     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           27   36  -11      48.48     4.22   -15.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.02R    0.00  
West_Brom       27   35   -1      48.33     4.27    -4.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.01R    0.00  
Norwich         27   35   -6      47.14     4.30   -11.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      27   34   +4      48.14     4.25     2.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.02R    0.00  
Everton         26   34   -1      50.77     4.63    -0.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.43     0.00     0.00  
Swansea         27   33   -4      45.33     4.21    -8.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.13R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   30   -5      43.15     4.28    -8.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.48R    0.00  
QPR             27   22  -18      30.78     3.82   -29.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.65R   20.54  
Blackburn       27   22  -22      33.58     4.21   -28.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.09R    9.13  
Wolverhampton   27   22  -26      32.64     4.16   -33.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.07R   14.34  
Bolton          27   20  -27      33.43     4.43   -29.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.85R   10.16  
Wigan           27   20  -29      29.04     3.87   -39.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.64R   45.84  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 7 March 2012, Brighton vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      35   66  +30      85.17     4.43    36.18    39.60    72.11    99.46    79.98P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         34   65  +21      85.76     4.73    27.35    41.92    72.40    99.27    80.37P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          34   63  +16      81.84     4.65    19.50    13.56    34.89    95.45    51.35P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    34   59   +8      75.75     4.64     8.60     1.29     4.99    64.63    15.91P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        35   56  +12      73.87     4.60    16.28     0.45     2.36    53.97    14.39P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       33   55  +21      76.89     4.90    26.85     2.69    10.40    77.50    32.80P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         35   55   +6      69.30     4.41     4.97     0.03     0.18    15.47     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          34   54   +9      73.93     4.70    14.18     0.33     1.98    53.21    13.73P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             33   53   +6      71.19     4.75     6.90     0.13     0.64    27.58     5.92P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     35   50   +3      65.33     4.50     3.22     0.00     0.02     3.92     0.79P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        34   48   +7      65.03     4.74     7.79     0.00     0.02     4.48     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   34   48   +4      63.44     4.51     3.03     0.00     0.00     1.57     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          34   47   +4      63.88     4.67     4.51     0.00     0.01     2.56     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            34   46   -8      61.47     4.65    -9.34     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Ipswich          34   44   -7      60.36     4.77    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.04P    0.03R    0.00  
Watford          35   44  -13      57.79     4.47   -15.20     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.10R    0.00  
Barnsley         35   43   -9      54.88     4.28   -14.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.53R    0.01  
Peterborough     34   38   -5      52.80     4.82    -8.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.29R    0.19  
Millwall         35   37   -9      50.83     4.44   -10.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.82R    0.50  
Bristol_City     35   34  -26      46.08     4.26   -30.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.09R    6.50  
Nott'm_Forest    34   32  -23      46.35     4.54   -25.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.53R    5.65  
Coventry         35   29  -19      41.05     4.17   -23.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.02R   33.47  
Doncaster        33   29  -24      41.51     4.48   -32.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.77R   34.03  
Portsmouth       34   26   -4      42.70     4.56    -3.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.81R   19.66  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 March 2012, Brentford vs Exeter; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        35   78  +39      98.89     4.35    47.80    95.09    99.27   100.00    99.51P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       34   65  +27      86.83     4.66    35.04     2.78    48.09    99.83    65.41P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       35   64  +17      82.08     4.49    21.53     0.20    10.31    98.18    29.27P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    34   63  +30      84.99     4.71    38.47     1.76    32.57    99.59    55.85P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         34   59  +26      80.96     4.69    34.35     0.17     9.54    97.46    34.00P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    35   53   +6      68.04     4.47     5.94     0.00     0.01    15.81     2.06P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        33   52   -5      68.37     4.93    -7.54     0.00     0.02    18.81     2.17P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       32   50  +16      71.84     5.20    19.97     0.00     0.20    52.28     8.89P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   47   +7      65.24     4.92     7.64     0.00     0.00     8.07     1.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Colchester      33   47   +1      65.07     4.97     1.33     0.00     0.00     7.42     1.13P    0.02R    0.00  
Hartlepool      35   45   -3      59.03     4.40    -4.47     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.02P    0.35R    0.00  
Bournemouth     34   44   -2      60.33     4.68    -2.18     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.16P    0.20R    0.00  
Oldham          32   42   -8      59.58     5.07   -10.34     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.10P    0.80R    0.01  
Preston         33   41  -10      57.71     4.99   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    1.95R    0.02  
Bury            35   41  -15      54.10     4.48   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     7.41R    0.12  
Leyton_Orient   33   40  -12      55.36     4.79   -15.92     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    5.26R    0.09  
Yeovil          34   39  -12      53.48     4.57   -15.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.56R    0.23  
Scunthorpe      34   38   -4      53.95     4.79    -4.98     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.69R    0.22  
Walsall         34   36   -5      50.64     4.55    -7.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.89R    1.11  
Tranmere        34   35   -8      50.10     4.59    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.44R    1.41  
Exeter          35   34  -21      46.52     4.35   -24.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.64R    9.19  
Wycombe         35   32  -20      43.64     4.35   -26.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.50R   24.00  
Chesterfield    35   31  -20      42.59     4.32   -25.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.03R   32.36  
Rochdale        35   30  -24      42.87     4.34   -27.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.26R   31.25  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 March 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              34   70  +35      93.35     4.59    45.35    89.40    99.02   100.00    99.40P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           35   64  +20      78.77     4.44    19.48     0.79    21.94    88.68    35.38P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             35   63  +19      82.40     4.47    25.49     2.76    53.86    97.71    66.88P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   62  +17      82.88     4.69    23.41     3.75    55.96    97.67    68.44P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              34   62  +11      80.30     4.74    13.75     1.64    30.46    91.73    46.03P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         32   57  +15      79.76     5.29    20.36     1.60    31.30    88.77    44.31P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55  +15      72.33     4.73    16.41     0.01     2.69    43.41    12.11P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   54  +12      73.02     4.81    15.88     0.04     3.35    48.98    15.61P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            34   53  +11      70.97     4.66    13.30     0.01     1.32    30.69     8.80P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                35   49   -1      64.90     4.54     0.10     0.00     0.01     3.28     0.81P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            35   47  +10      61.59     4.53     9.26     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            34   47   +4      65.63     4.76     7.26     0.00     0.07     5.69     1.52P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            33   46   -2      62.45     4.87    -3.83     0.00     0.01     1.36     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   34   45   -3      61.88     4.71    -2.33     0.00     0.01     0.88     0.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   43  -11      58.50     4.76   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.06R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers       34   41  -13      55.80     4.68   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.34R    0.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   38  -17      50.41     4.56   -23.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.04R    1.84  
Bradford             33   36   -2      51.12     4.80    -5.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.20R    1.20  
Macclesfield         35   34  -11      46.28     4.30   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.66R    8.53  
Barnet               34   34  -22      46.87     4.52   -27.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.49R   10.55  
Plymouth             35   32  -17      46.15     4.47   -18.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.43R   11.13  
Hereford             35   32  -20      43.47     4.31   -25.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.58R   28.89  
Northampton          33   31  -22      45.33     4.80   -28.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.49R   19.54  
Dag_&_Red            34   31  -28      45.51     4.69   -31.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.72R   18.26  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 7 March 2012, Wrexham vs Luton; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     36   85  +47     101.81     4.26    51.74    60.39   100.00    72.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            35   80  +42     100.21     4.28    49.81    39.52   100.00    59.16P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              35   65  +34      86.56     4.26    44.40     0.09    97.84    38.98P    0.00     0.00  
York               35   61  +31      79.19     4.46    35.72     0.00    68.36    13.40P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          35   61  +18      78.22     4.53    21.23     0.00    55.51     7.09P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          35   59   -3      73.58     4.47    -4.17     0.00    15.60     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      35   57  +13      73.82     4.49    15.50     0.00    19.40     2.57P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          35   57   +6      72.53     4.49     6.48     0.00    11.09     1.05P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            34   55  +18      74.47     4.66    22.73     0.00    25.97     4.07P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             36   55   +5      67.74     4.18     3.51     0.00     1.26     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       35   52  +15      66.96     4.35    14.89     0.00     1.23     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     36   50   -3      62.17     4.24    -5.80     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      33   49  +10      68.85     4.91    13.15     0.00     3.72     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   43   -6      56.96     4.37    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           35   42  -14      55.13     4.43   -17.16     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          37   35  -22      48.10     4.11   -20.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.86R    0.03  
Newport_County     35   34   -9      48.11     4.35   -10.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.89R    0.02  
Lincoln_City       35   33  -15      49.50     4.49   -12.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.11R    0.02  
AFC_Telford        34   33  -15      46.54     4.65   -19.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.69R    0.08  
Alfreton_Town      35   32  -26      42.05     4.18   -34.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.17R    1.76  
Darlington         35   28  -15      42.92     4.32   -14.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.34R    0.96  
Kettering          35   28  -43      39.56     4.30   -48.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.19R    5.60  
Hayes_&_Yeading    35   27  -30      38.47     4.29   -36.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.20R    7.49  
Bath_City          36   21  -38      30.58     3.97   -44.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.54R   84.04  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10