Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 7 March 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 March 2012, Fulham vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        27   66  +50      88.60     4.18    62.30    47.85    99.58    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         27   64  +39      89.26     3.75    56.67    52.15    99.81   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       27   53  +19      72.89     4.37    26.57     0.00     0.45    57.43    86.61    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   49  +17      70.31     4.32    27.51     0.00     0.15    30.88    72.32    99.26     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   46  +15      66.94     4.15    24.75     0.00     0.01    11.19    36.58    96.50     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       27   44   +0      58.47     4.38    -1.34     0.00     0.00     0.15     1.34    35.80     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   39   +5      60.08     4.65    11.76     0.00     0.00     0.36     3.10    59.55     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   36   +1      50.55     4.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.33     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           27   36  -11      48.53     4.20   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom       27   35   -1      48.36     4.24    -4.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.01R    0.00  
Norwich         27   35   -6      47.09     4.26   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      27   34   +4      48.17     4.29     2.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.01R    0.00  
Everton         26   34   -1      50.81     4.67    -0.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.61     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         27   33   -4      45.40     4.21    -8.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.14R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   30   -5      43.11     4.27    -8.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.47R    0.00  
QPR             27   22  -18      30.80     3.85   -29.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.39R   20.11  
Blackburn       27   22  -22      33.56     4.20   -28.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.01R    8.85  
Wolverhampton   27   22  -26      32.62     4.14   -33.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.30R   13.99  
Bolton          27   20  -27      33.38     4.41   -29.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.98R   10.20  
Wigan           27   20  -29      28.96     3.86   -40.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.63R   46.83  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 March 2012, Bristol_City vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      35   66  +30      85.11     4.44    36.10    33.53    69.73    99.35    78.04P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         33   64  +21      87.05     4.93    28.79    50.56    78.34    99.48    84.61P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          34   63  +16      81.83     4.68    19.49    11.54    32.34    94.99    49.14P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    34   59   +8      75.84     4.61     8.71     1.03     4.44    64.11    15.45P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        35   56  +12      74.03     4.61    16.55     0.33     2.30    54.22    14.85P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       33   55  +21      76.85     4.91    26.81     2.41     9.27    76.28    31.62P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         34   54   +6      69.68     4.60     5.03     0.04     0.24    17.47     3.10P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          33   53   +9      74.32     4.94    14.23     0.47     2.75    54.67    15.06P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             33   53   +6      71.22     4.74     6.95     0.09     0.56    26.88     5.76P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     35   50   +3      65.39     4.49     3.35     0.00     0.01     3.69     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        34   48   +7      65.01     4.72     7.76     0.00     0.01     3.99     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   34   48   +4      63.43     4.52     3.01     0.00     0.01     1.56     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          34   47   +4      63.88     4.70     4.46     0.00     0.01     2.37     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            34   46   -8      61.51     4.66    -9.31     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          34   44   -7      60.39     4.78    -7.09     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley         35   43   -9      54.77     4.25   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.55R    0.01  
Watford          34   43  -13      57.37     4.66   -16.53     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.22R    0.01  
Peterborough     34   38   -5      52.67     4.85    -8.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.61R    0.20  
Millwall         35   37   -9      50.80     4.42   -10.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.87R    0.48  
Bristol_City     35   34  -26      46.05     4.22   -30.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.77R    6.30  
Nott'm_Forest    34   32  -23      46.27     4.56   -25.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.01R    5.93  
Coventry         35   29  -19      41.08     4.17   -23.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.73R   32.84  
Doncaster        33   29  -24      41.43     4.49   -32.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.07R   34.64  
Portsmouth       34   26   -4      42.74     4.57    -3.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.12R   19.61  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 March 2012, Brentford vs Exeter; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        35   78  +39      98.85     4.36    47.75    94.96    99.28   100.00    99.51P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       34   65  +27      86.87     4.68    35.10     2.86    47.59    99.83    65.27P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       35   64  +17      82.08     4.50    21.54     0.18    10.24    98.20    29.17P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    34   63  +30      85.01     4.69    38.47     1.79    32.70    99.60    55.87P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         34   59  +26      81.00     4.74    34.38     0.20     9.92    97.35    34.22P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    35   53   +6      68.07     4.49     5.98     0.00     0.01    15.57     2.21P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        33   52   -5      68.30     4.94    -7.63     0.00     0.01    18.25     2.00P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       32   50  +16      71.92     5.21    20.01     0.00     0.24    52.76     8.87P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       33   47   +7      65.25     4.95     7.66     0.00     0.00     8.29     1.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester      33   47   +1      65.10     4.99     1.39     0.00     0.01     7.51     1.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Hartlepool      35   45   -3      58.99     4.40    -4.54     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P    0.29R    0.00  
Bournemouth     34   44   -2      60.24     4.71    -2.29     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.15P    0.19R    0.00  
Oldham          32   42   -8      59.56     5.11   -10.37     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.11P    0.87R    0.01  
Preston         33   41  -10      57.72     4.99   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P    1.94R    0.02  
Bury            35   41  -15      54.19     4.49   -18.07     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     7.40R    0.12  
Leyton_Orient   33   40  -12      55.32     4.79   -15.92     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00     5.45R    0.08  
Yeovil          34   39  -12      53.51     4.59   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.66R    0.24  
Scunthorpe      34   38   -4      53.96     4.77    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    7.63R    0.18  
Walsall         34   36   -5      50.61     4.54    -7.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.96R    1.17  
Tranmere        34   35   -8      50.08     4.56    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.27R    1.37  
Exeter          35   34  -21      46.52     4.32   -24.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.08R    9.29  
Wycombe         35   32  -20      43.58     4.39   -26.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.72R   24.75  
Chesterfield    35   31  -20      42.62     4.27   -25.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.22R   31.91  
Rochdale        35   30  -24      42.87     4.33   -27.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.32R   30.87  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 March 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              34   70  +35      93.31     4.57    45.28    89.26    99.09   100.00    99.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           35   64  +20      78.79     4.43    19.55     0.73    21.95    89.05    35.57P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             35   63  +19      82.35     4.47    25.45     3.01    53.12    97.69    66.46P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           34   62  +17      82.89     4.69    23.44     3.78    55.94    97.59    68.15P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              34   62  +11      80.33     4.76    13.77     1.60    30.75    91.96    46.23P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         32   57  +15      79.83     5.29    20.47     1.56    31.70    89.19    44.90P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           34   55  +15      72.29     4.71    16.38     0.02     2.65    42.89    11.93P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           34   54  +12      72.99     4.83    15.81     0.03     3.46    48.72    15.66P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            34   53  +11      70.98     4.64    13.31     0.01     1.26    30.70     8.59P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                35   49   -1      64.88     4.55     0.11     0.00     0.01     3.18     0.80P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            35   47  +10      61.64     4.46     9.30     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            34   47   +4      65.62     4.73     7.27     0.00     0.06     5.63     1.53P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            33   46   -2      62.40     4.83    -3.89     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   34   45   -3      61.97     4.72    -2.20     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   43  -11      58.55     4.76   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.06R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers       34   41  -13      55.68     4.67   -15.85     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.33R    0.06  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   38  -17      50.44     4.55   -23.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.00R    1.80  
Bradford             33   36   -2      51.13     4.83    -5.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.17R    1.30  
Macclesfield         35   34  -11      46.22     4.30   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.09R    9.03  
Barnet               34   34  -22      46.86     4.51   -27.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.39R   10.56  
Plymouth             35   32  -17      46.19     4.46   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.78R   10.69  
Hereford             35   32  -20      43.49     4.30   -25.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.94R   28.46  
Northampton          33   31  -22      45.36     4.83   -28.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.58R   19.30  
Dag_&_Red            34   31  -28      45.43     4.71   -31.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.65R   18.79  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 6 March 2012, Alfreton_Town vs Stockport; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     36   85  +47     101.78     4.26    51.66    69.27   100.00    78.18P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            34   77  +40      98.45     4.55    47.59    30.08   100.00    51.82P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              34   65  +36      88.10     4.48    46.75     0.64    98.68    40.30P    0.00     0.00  
York               35   61  +31      79.18     4.44    35.69     0.00    68.04    13.18P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          35   61  +18      78.32     4.53    21.43     0.00    56.22     7.19P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          35   59   -3      73.61     4.48    -4.07     0.00    15.76     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      35   57  +13      73.80     4.49    15.49     0.00    18.98     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          35   57   +6      72.45     4.49     6.36     0.00    10.37     1.02P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            34   55  +18      74.48     4.67    22.70     0.00    25.66     3.94P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             36   55   +5      67.62     4.17     3.34     0.00     1.06     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       35   52  +15      67.02     4.37    14.99     0.00     1.26     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     36   50   -3      62.24     4.25    -5.68     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      33   49  +10      69.00     4.95    13.33     0.00     3.93     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   43   -6      56.85     4.41    -8.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           35   42  -14      55.05     4.42   -17.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Stockport          37   35  -22      48.06     4.09   -21.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.90R    0.04  
Newport_County     35   34   -9      48.06     4.37   -10.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.88R    0.02  
Lincoln_City       35   33  -15      49.51     4.51   -12.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.01R    0.03  
AFC_Telford        34   33  -15      46.69     4.65   -19.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.33R    0.10  
Alfreton_Town      35   32  -26      42.01     4.17   -35.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.39R    1.87  
Darlington         35   28  -15      42.92     4.34   -15.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.50R    0.95  
Kettering          35   28  -43      39.59     4.28   -48.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.92R    5.56  
Hayes_&_Yeading    35   27  -30      38.42     4.28   -36.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.55R    7.60  
Bath_City          36   21  -38      30.59     3.97   -44.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.49R   83.84  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10