Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 6 March 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 March 2012, Fulham vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        27   66  +50      88.62     4.15    62.32    48.02    99.57    99.98    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         27   64  +39      89.27     3.74    56.69    51.97    99.79   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       27   53  +19      72.96     4.36    26.67     0.01     0.51    57.92    87.03    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   49  +17      70.33     4.31    27.50     0.00     0.11    30.78    72.51    99.22     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   46  +15      66.94     4.15    24.70     0.00     0.02    10.80    36.21    96.58     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       27   44   +0      58.42     4.34    -1.42     0.00     0.00     0.15     1.31    35.71     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   39   +5      60.08     4.63    11.72     0.00     0.00     0.38     2.91    59.56     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   36   +1      50.51     4.25    -0.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.38     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           27   36  -11      48.46     4.21   -15.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom       27   35   -1      48.35     4.22    -4.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.02R    0.00  
Norwich         27   35   -6      47.15     4.27   -11.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      27   34   +4      48.22     4.29     2.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.01R    0.00  
Everton         26   34   -1      50.78     4.63    -0.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     3.60     0.00     0.00  
Swansea         27   33   -4      45.36     4.20    -8.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.13R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   30   -5      43.09     4.28    -8.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.50R    0.00  
QPR             27   22  -18      30.76     3.81   -29.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.05R   20.25  
Blackburn       27   22  -22      33.60     4.22   -28.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.26R    8.91  
Wolverhampton   27   22  -26      32.62     4.14   -33.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.83R   14.15  
Bolton          27   20  -27      33.36     4.45   -29.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.91R   10.46  
Wigan           27   20  -29      29.01     3.88   -40.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.26R   46.22  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 March 2012, Cardiff vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      34   65  +30      86.39     4.63    37.56    43.05    78.23    99.61    84.48P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         33   64  +21      87.03     4.92    28.74    45.54    78.59    99.34    84.76P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          33   60  +15      80.47     4.87    18.80     7.10    22.70    90.43    40.36P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        34   56  +13      75.73     4.87    18.02     1.08     5.15    65.85    20.03P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    33   56   +6      74.54     4.83     7.22     0.63     2.80    50.81    11.74P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       33   55  +21      76.89     4.90    26.84     2.02     8.87    75.23    30.89P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         34   54   +6      69.60     4.64     4.92     0.02     0.21    16.55     2.94P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          33   53   +9      74.43     4.89    14.38     0.36     2.45    54.34    14.66P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             32   52   +6      71.89     4.97     7.36     0.19     0.90    30.82     6.76P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     34   49   +3      65.41     4.67     2.83     0.00     0.02     4.30     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        33   48   +8      66.68     4.95     9.21     0.01     0.06     7.94     1.70P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          34   47   +4      63.88     4.69     4.48     0.00     0.00     2.21     0.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   33   47   +4      63.79     4.72     3.02     0.00     0.01     1.99     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          33   43   -7      59.88     4.94    -8.63     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    0.04R    0.00  
Barnsley         34   43   -7      55.85     4.52   -12.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.30R    0.00  
Derby            33   43   -9      59.49     4.87   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.02P    0.06R    0.00  
Watford          34   43  -13      57.35     4.63   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.23R    0.00  
Peterborough     33   38   -2      54.80     5.09    -4.16     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.48R    0.05  
Millwall         34   34  -12      48.54     4.63   -14.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.75R    1.53  
Nott'm_Forest    33   32  -22      48.26     4.76   -24.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.76R    2.36  
Bristol_City     34   31  -27      44.08     4.45   -31.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.85R   11.15  
Coventry         34   28  -19      41.46     4.40   -23.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.64R   24.06  
Portsmouth       33   26   -3      43.71     4.77    -2.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.07R   11.84  
Doncaster        32   26  -25      39.29     4.64   -33.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.81R   49.01  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 March 2012, Bournemouth vs Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        34   78  +41     101.12     4.58    51.14    95.67    99.57   100.00    99.70P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   65  +28      88.84     4.89    36.93     3.30    59.22    99.93    73.23P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       34   61  +14      80.88     4.73    19.19     0.05     5.10    96.72    23.29P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    33   60  +29      84.14     4.90    38.68     0.62    19.58    99.31    47.66P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         33   59  +27      83.36     4.91    37.01     0.36    16.37    99.01    40.47P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    34   52   +6      68.44     4.71     6.00     0.00     0.00    20.15     2.83P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       32   50  +16      71.94     5.21    20.06     0.00     0.14    55.78     8.94P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        32   49   -6      66.93     5.14    -8.26     0.00     0.01    14.13     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool      34   45   -2      59.77     4.56    -4.54     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.09P    0.23R    0.00  
Brentford       32   44   +5      63.70     5.14     5.74     0.00     0.00     5.89     0.96P    0.03R    0.00  
Colchester      32   44   -1      62.43     5.16    -2.19     0.00     0.00     3.69     0.56P    0.11R    0.00  
Bournemouth     34   44   -2      60.44     4.68    -1.99     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.20P    0.13R    0.00  
Oldham          31   42   -7      61.26     5.31    -8.86     0.00     0.00     2.43     0.27P    0.32R    0.00  
Bury            34   41  -12      55.24     4.69   -15.62     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    4.19R    0.08  
Preston         32   40  -10      58.59     5.26   -11.11     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.12P    1.44R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient   32   40  -10      57.09     5.03   -13.32     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P    2.47R    0.04  
Yeovil          33   36  -13      51.01     4.74   -17.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.68R    1.08  
Scunthorpe      33   35   -5      51.94     4.99    -6.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.65R    0.63  
Tranmere        33   34   -8      50.35     4.80    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.73R    1.13  
Exeter          34   34  -19      47.71     4.55   -23.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.04R    5.24  
Walsall         33   33   -6      48.41     4.73    -9.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.21R    3.17  
Chesterfield    34   30  -20      42.60     4.52   -26.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.70R   29.62  
Rochdale        34   30  -23      43.91     4.54   -26.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.17R   20.00  
Wycombe         34   29  -22      41.59     4.55   -28.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.91R   39.00  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 5 March 2012, Southend vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              33   67  +31      92.24     4.84    42.10    82.33    97.72   100.00    98.53P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           34   64  +22      80.27     4.72    21.75     2.55    32.64    93.68    45.39P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             35   63  +19      82.27     4.45    25.32     4.15    51.35    97.93    64.82P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   61  +17      83.60     4.94    23.89     7.20    60.14    98.05    71.46P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              33   59  +10      78.92     4.97    13.09     1.38    21.10    87.35    38.01P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         32   57  +15      79.85     5.32    20.51     2.30    30.78    90.17    44.33P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   54  +15      72.35     4.95    15.95     0.05     3.15    46.94    13.40P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           33   51  +10      71.86     5.04    14.63     0.04     2.28    42.86    12.93P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            33   50   +8      69.46     4.86    10.52     0.01     0.63    23.21     6.26P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                34   48   -1      65.03     4.78    -0.31     0.00     0.02     4.65     1.13P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            33   46   +4      66.22     4.97     7.60     0.00     0.13     9.15     2.49P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            32   46   -1      63.53     5.06    -3.24     0.00     0.03     3.15     0.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            34   44   +8      59.86     4.69     7.10     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   33   44   -3      62.22     4.96    -2.36     0.00     0.01     1.59     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   43   -8      59.70     4.97    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.10P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       33   41  -12      57.28     4.94   -14.43     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.18R    0.03  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   38  -16      51.79     4.81   -22.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.81R    0.96  
Bradford             32   35   -2      51.50     5.02    -5.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.61R    1.06  
Barnet               33   34  -20      47.72     4.71   -26.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.79R    6.83  
Macclesfield         34   33  -11      46.83     4.53   -14.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.42R    6.93  
Hereford             34   31  -20      43.74     4.52   -25.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.55R   24.87  
Dag_&_Red            33   31  -24      46.34     4.86   -27.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.66R   12.29  
Plymouth             34   29  -18      44.61     4.72   -19.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.27R   17.72  
Northampton          32   28  -23      43.56     4.99   -29.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.67R   29.30  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 March 2012, Alfreton_Town vs AFC_Telford; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     35   82  +46     100.68     4.49    51.52    63.42   100.00    74.16P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            34   77  +40      98.43     4.57    47.61    35.61   100.00    55.82P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              34   65  +36      88.19     4.45    46.85     0.95    98.78    39.72P    0.00     0.00  
York               34   60  +31      80.54     4.64    37.27     0.02    76.48    14.70P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          35   59   -3      73.48     4.47    -4.29     0.00    14.66     0.83P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          34   58  +17      76.33     4.74    19.85     0.00    37.33     4.60P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      35   57  +13      73.85     4.48    15.59     0.00    18.95     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            33   55  +19      75.44     4.88    23.02     0.00    32.68     5.05P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             35   55   +6      69.85     4.44     5.62     0.00     3.89     0.38P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          34   54   +4      71.46     4.74     5.44     0.00     8.01     0.70P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       35   52  +15      66.98     4.37    14.91     0.00     1.08     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      32   49  +11      70.60     5.16    14.66     0.00     8.13     1.16P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     35   47   -4      60.01     4.46    -7.68     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   43   -6      56.98     4.39    -8.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           34   41  -14      54.58     4.56   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          36   35  -17      50.25     4.34   -14.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.92R    0.01  
Newport_County     34   34   -8      49.96     4.63    -8.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.24R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       35   33  -15      49.50     4.49   -12.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.74R    0.00  
AFC_Telford        34   33  -15      46.74     4.66   -19.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.24R    0.03  
Alfreton_Town      34   29  -31      39.53     4.33   -41.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.32R    3.56  
Darlington         35   28  -15      42.88     4.32   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.24R    0.43  
Kettering          35   28  -43      39.53     4.28   -49.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.48R    2.80  
Hayes_&_Yeading    34   27  -28      39.24     4.47   -35.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.51R    2.89  
Bath_City          35   18  -39      28.32     4.18   -46.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.29R   90.27  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10