Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 5 March 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 March 2012, Fulham vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        27   66  +50      88.64     4.17    62.40    48.67    99.61    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         27   64  +39      89.21     3.75    56.56    51.32    99.80    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       27   53  +19      72.81     4.35    26.48     0.01     0.47    56.65    86.56    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   49  +17      70.32     4.31    27.48     0.00     0.11    31.41    72.47    99.16     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   46  +15      66.93     4.16    24.69     0.00     0.01    11.42    36.48    96.43     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       27   44   +0      58.51     4.34    -1.28     0.00     0.00     0.16     1.44    35.95     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   39   +5      60.10     4.61    11.78     0.00     0.00     0.41     3.03    59.83     0.00     0.00  
Fulham          27   36   +1      50.51     4.26    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.22     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           27   36  -11      48.49     4.25   -15.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.01R    0.00  
West_Brom       27   35   -1      48.28     4.26    -4.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.03R    0.00  
Norwich         27   35   -6      47.14     4.28   -11.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      27   34   +4      48.19     4.28     2.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.01R    0.00  
Everton         26   34   -1      50.77     4.64    -0.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.51     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         27   33   -4      45.32     4.18    -8.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.11R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   30   -5      43.14     4.27    -8.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.49R    0.00  
QPR             27   22  -18      30.78     3.82   -29.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.86R   20.35  
Blackburn       27   22  -22      33.63     4.22   -28.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.58R    9.04  
Wolverhampton   27   22  -26      32.61     4.15   -33.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.81R   14.23  
Bolton          27   20  -27      33.45     4.46   -29.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.62R   10.36  
Wigan           27   20  -29      29.04     3.87   -39.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.44R   46.01  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 4 March 2012, Cardiff vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      34   65  +30      86.40     4.62    37.54    43.41    79.00    99.54    84.82P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         33   64  +21      87.00     4.91    28.76    45.51    78.62    99.41    84.39P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          33   60  +15      80.43     4.87    18.79     6.97    22.11    90.33    39.98P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        34   56  +13      75.68     4.88    17.95     1.04     5.03    65.89    20.23P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    33   56   +6      74.56     4.83     7.24     0.60     2.93    51.43    11.81P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       33   55  +21      76.84     4.90    26.76     1.88     8.57    74.92    30.56P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         34   54   +6      69.66     4.66     4.97     0.03     0.24    16.96     3.08P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          33   53   +9      74.33     4.90    14.24     0.39     2.45    53.25    14.55P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             32   52   +6      71.91     4.96     7.35     0.17     0.96    30.92     6.99P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     34   49   +3      65.40     4.72     2.80     0.00     0.02     4.40     0.87P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        33   48   +8      66.71     4.94     9.25     0.01     0.06     8.12     1.79P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          34   47   +4      63.93     4.67     4.56     0.00     0.00     2.30     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   33   47   +4      63.77     4.71     3.00     0.00     0.00     1.97     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          33   43   -7      59.89     4.95    -8.62     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P    0.05R    0.00  
Barnsley         34   43   -7      55.84     4.53   -12.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.31R    0.00  
Derby            33   43   -9      59.49     4.87   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.06R    0.00  
Watford          34   43  -13      57.33     4.63   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.23R    0.00  
Peterborough     33   38   -2      54.81     5.11    -4.12     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.40R    0.04  
Millwall         34   34  -12      48.60     4.64   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.63R    1.46  
Nott'm_Forest    33   32  -22      48.31     4.78   -24.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.70R    2.25  
Bristol_City     34   31  -27      44.03     4.43   -31.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.83R   11.20  
Coventry         34   28  -19      41.50     4.40   -23.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.39R   23.90  
Portsmouth       33   26   -3      43.78     4.77    -2.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.39R   11.49  
Doncaster        32   26  -25      39.28     4.65   -33.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.01R   49.66  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 March 2012, Bournemouth vs Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        34   78  +41     101.22     4.55    51.31    95.90    99.64   100.00    99.77P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   65  +28      88.86     4.91    37.00     3.20    59.59    99.95    73.15P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       34   61  +14      80.89     4.74    19.21     0.03     4.93    96.81    23.27P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    33   60  +29      84.11     4.92    38.68     0.55    19.35    99.32    47.96P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         33   59  +27      83.32     4.92    36.94     0.32    16.34    98.99    40.35P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    34   52   +6      68.34     4.68     5.84     0.00     0.00    19.73     2.59P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       32   50  +16      71.95     5.16    20.07     0.00     0.14    56.14     9.15P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        32   49   -6      66.90     5.16    -8.30     0.00     0.01    14.05     1.60P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool      34   45   -2      59.78     4.59    -4.52     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.08P    0.22R    0.00  
Brentford       32   44   +5      63.77     5.13     5.87     0.00     0.00     5.96     0.88P    0.04R    0.00  
Colchester      32   44   -1      62.41     5.12    -2.30     0.00     0.00     3.57     0.52P    0.09R    0.00  
Bournemouth     34   44   -2      60.34     4.69    -2.13     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.20P    0.16R    0.00  
Oldham          31   42   -7      61.26     5.33    -8.85     0.00     0.00     2.58     0.33P    0.36R    0.00  
Bury            34   41  -12      55.29     4.68   -15.57     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.00P    3.92R    0.04  
Preston         32   40  -10      58.67     5.26   -11.01     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.11P    1.40R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   32   40  -10      57.02     5.02   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    2.50R    0.03  
Yeovil          33   36  -13      50.99     4.72   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.60R    1.06  
Scunthorpe      33   35   -5      52.01     5.02    -6.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.58R    0.62  
Tranmere        33   34   -8      50.45     4.79    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.16R    1.13  
Exeter          34   34  -19      47.72     4.57   -23.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.17R    5.20  
Walsall         33   33   -6      48.34     4.75    -9.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.93R    3.35  
Chesterfield    34   30  -20      42.51     4.52   -26.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.38R   30.35  
Rochdale        34   30  -23      43.94     4.55   -26.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.85R   19.42  
Wycombe         34   29  -22      41.59     4.58   -28.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.64R   38.80  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 March 2012, Accrington_Stanley vs Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              33   67  +31      92.17     4.84    41.98    80.91    97.53    99.99    98.55P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           34   64  +22      80.35     4.69    21.83     2.57    31.74    94.03    44.57P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             34   62  +19      82.98     4.70    25.85     5.61    56.17    97.99    68.40P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   61  +17      83.48     4.91    23.74     6.75    58.04    98.02    70.17P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              33   59  +10      78.94     4.98    13.13     1.40    20.41    87.12    37.29P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         31   56  +15      79.82     5.52    19.88     2.69    30.20    89.22    43.58P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   54  +15      72.38     4.95    15.99     0.03     2.92    46.66    12.86P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           33   51  +10      72.01     5.01    14.82     0.04     2.15    43.49    13.26P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            33   50   +8      69.51     4.88    10.55     0.00     0.67    23.39     6.34P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                34   48   -1      65.04     4.75    -0.24     0.00     0.03     4.69     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            33   46   +4      66.28     4.99     7.66     0.00     0.11     9.53     2.62P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            32   46   -1      63.55     5.05    -3.22     0.00     0.02     3.08     0.62P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            34   44   +8      59.88     4.71     7.13     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   33   44   -3      62.14     4.94    -2.44     0.00     0.01     1.54     0.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   43   -8      59.69     4.96    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.08P    0.03R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers       33   41  -12      57.30     4.94   -14.42     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.19R    0.03  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   38  -16      51.78     4.82   -22.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.81R    0.97  
Bradford             32   35   -2      51.54     4.99    -5.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.45R    0.98  
Barnet               33   34  -20      47.69     4.70   -26.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.68R    6.88  
Macclesfield         34   33  -11      46.76     4.54   -14.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.54R    7.08  
Hereford             34   31  -20      43.68     4.50   -25.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.69R   25.05  
Dag_&_Red            33   31  -24      46.43     4.85   -27.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.43R   12.05  
Plymouth             34   29  -18      44.58     4.71   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.54R   17.52  
Northampton          32   28  -23      43.56     5.04   -29.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.63R   29.42  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 March 2012, Alfreton_Town vs AFC_Telford; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     35   82  +46     100.69     4.46    51.52    63.40   100.00    74.09P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            34   77  +40      98.43     4.57    47.59    35.59   100.00    55.61P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              34   65  +36      88.17     4.46    46.82     1.01    98.83    40.27P    0.00     0.00  
York               34   60  +31      80.49     4.63    37.17     0.00    76.32    14.66P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          35   59   -3      73.50     4.48    -4.25     0.00    14.79     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          34   58  +17      76.30     4.78    19.84     0.00    37.39     4.66P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      35   57  +13      73.82     4.48    15.53     0.00    18.91     2.54P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            33   55  +19      75.38     4.89    22.95     0.00    32.58     5.03P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             35   55   +6      69.88     4.42     5.67     0.00     3.89     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          34   54   +4      71.49     4.71     5.47     0.00     8.08     0.73P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       35   52  +15      66.98     4.34    14.89     0.00     1.10     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      32   49  +11      70.61     5.13    14.71     0.00     8.11     1.12P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     35   47   -4      60.02     4.45    -7.66     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   43   -6      57.06     4.40    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           34   41  -14      54.60     4.55   -18.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Stockport          36   35  -17      50.20     4.33   -14.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.08R    0.00  
Newport_County     34   34   -8      49.96     4.61    -8.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.17R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       35   33  -15      49.53     4.52   -12.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.86R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        34   33  -15      46.66     4.64   -19.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.37R    0.04  
Alfreton_Town      34   29  -31      39.53     4.32   -41.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.26R    3.34  
Darlington         35   28  -15      42.86     4.35   -15.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.33R    0.46  
Kettering          35   28  -43      39.51     4.30   -49.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.34R    2.81  
Hayes_&_Yeading    34   27  -28      39.27     4.46   -35.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.33R    2.97  
Bath_City          35   18  -39      28.32     4.17   -46.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.23R   90.36  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10