Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 4 March 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 March 2012, Blackburn vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        27   66  +50      88.65     4.16    62.41    58.28    99.22    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   61  +37      87.73     4.02    54.62    41.62    98.44    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   53  +21      74.21     4.54    28.54     0.10     2.12    66.07    90.50    99.89     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         27   49  +17      70.22     4.35    27.32     0.00     0.20    24.63    70.04    98.95     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         27   46  +15      66.94     4.16    24.70     0.00     0.02     8.79    34.57    95.89     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       26   43   +0      59.20     4.60    -0.80     0.00     0.00     0.21     2.06    40.91     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   39   +5      60.13     4.65    11.80     0.00     0.00     0.36     2.83    56.90     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           27   36  -11      48.46     4.20   -15.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.00R    0.00  
West_Brom       27   35   -1      48.35     4.27    -4.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.01R    0.00  
Norwich         27   35   -6      47.12     4.28   -11.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.07R    0.00  
Everton         26   34   -1      50.78     4.65    -0.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.09     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      26   33   +4      48.26     4.51     2.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.24     0.03R    0.00  
Fulham          26   33   -4      49.00     4.45    -4.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.03R    0.00  
Swansea         27   33   -4      45.32     4.22    -8.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.16R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   30   -5      43.20     4.24    -8.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.51R    0.00  
QPR             27   22  -18      30.74     3.80   -29.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.40R   21.49  
Wolverhampton   26   22  -21      33.93     4.42   -28.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.16R    9.29  
Blackburn       27   22  -22      33.48     4.20   -28.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.83R    9.76  
Bolton          27   20  -27      33.35     4.44   -29.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.56R   11.14  
Wigan           27   20  -29      28.98     3.86   -40.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.24R   48.30  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 March 2012, Barnsley vs Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      34   65  +30      86.38     4.65    37.52    50.74    79.81    99.50    85.22P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   61  +19      85.07     5.16    26.29    33.75    65.94    97.78    74.97P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          33   60  +15      80.45     4.86    18.80     8.83    25.47    89.59    42.24P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        34   56  +13      75.67     4.88    17.96     1.40     5.90    63.93    20.13P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    33   56   +6      74.61     4.83     7.28     0.78     3.50    49.93    11.97P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       33   55  +21      76.85     4.92    26.79     2.46    10.41    73.51    31.32P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         34   54   +6      69.66     4.64     5.01     0.04     0.31    15.92     3.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.07     5.12    16.78     1.75     7.37    64.93    21.28P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             32   52   +6      71.82     4.99     7.27     0.24     1.17    29.32     6.74P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     34   49   +3      65.43     4.69     2.82     0.00     0.02     3.82     0.70P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        33   48   +8      66.69     4.94     9.18     0.01     0.11     7.56     1.61P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          34   47   +4      63.90     4.66     4.52     0.00     0.00     1.99     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   33   47   +4      63.80     4.68     3.04     0.00     0.01     1.70     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          33   43   -7      59.91     4.95    -8.57     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03P    0.06R    0.00  
Barnsley         34   43   -7      55.83     4.49   -12.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.32R    0.00  
Derby            33   43   -9      59.48     4.87   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.05R    0.00  
Watford          34   43  -13      57.28     4.63   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Peterborough     33   38   -2      54.89     5.13    -3.97     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.38R    0.04  
Millwall         34   34  -12      48.64     4.63   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.20R    1.48  
Nott'm_Forest    33   32  -22      48.30     4.78   -24.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.72R    2.36  
Bristol_City     34   31  -27      44.10     4.42   -31.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.24R   11.14  
Coventry         34   28  -19      41.42     4.39   -23.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.78R   23.98  
Portsmouth       33   26   -3      43.75     4.78    -2.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.11R   11.79  
Doncaster        32   26  -25      39.26     4.65   -34.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.98R   49.21  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 March 2012, Bournemouth vs Charlton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        34   78  +41     101.24     4.53    51.33    96.01    99.57   100.00    99.70P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   65  +28      88.85     4.90    36.95     3.05    59.02    99.95    72.86P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       34   61  +14      80.91     4.73    19.22     0.02     4.92    96.73    23.07P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    33   60  +29      84.26     4.91    38.89     0.62    20.22    99.35    48.53P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         33   59  +27      83.27     4.92    36.87     0.30    16.16    99.06    39.97P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    34   52   +6      68.42     4.69     5.97     0.00     0.00    20.19     2.80P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       32   50  +16      71.84     5.20    19.94     0.00     0.10    55.12     9.14P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        32   49   -6      66.93     5.12    -8.22     0.00     0.01    14.19     1.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Hartlepool      34   45   -2      59.74     4.55    -4.60     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.09P    0.18R    0.00  
Brentford       32   44   +5      63.71     5.13     5.76     0.00     0.00     6.06     0.95P    0.03R    0.00  
Colchester      32   44   -1      62.45     5.17    -2.20     0.00     0.00     3.78     0.56P    0.10R    0.00  
Bournemouth     34   44   -2      60.39     4.69    -2.05     0.00     0.00     1.22     0.20P    0.13R    0.00  
Oldham          31   42   -7      61.27     5.36    -8.86     0.00     0.00     2.57     0.26P    0.34R    0.00  
Bury            34   41  -12      55.32     4.71   -15.51     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    4.05R    0.04  
Preston         32   40  -10      58.64     5.24   -11.04     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.11P    1.49R    0.03  
Leyton_Orient   32   40  -10      56.90     5.04   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    2.63R    0.04  
Yeovil          33   36  -13      50.95     4.74   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.88R    1.20  
Scunthorpe      33   35   -5      51.92     5.01    -6.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.83R    0.64  
Tranmere        33   34   -8      50.45     4.81    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.23R    1.08  
Exeter          34   34  -19      47.71     4.60   -23.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.35R    5.16  
Walsall         33   33   -6      48.43     4.75    -9.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.36R    3.12  
Chesterfield    34   30  -20      42.55     4.52   -26.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.97R   29.99  
Rochdale        34   30  -23      43.96     4.52   -26.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.64R   19.50  
Wycombe         34   29  -22      41.58     4.57   -28.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.79R   39.19  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 March 2012, Accrington_Stanley vs Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              33   67  +31      92.23     4.82    42.04    81.31    97.56    99.99    98.46P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           34   64  +22      80.38     4.67    21.89     2.36    31.99    94.28    44.79P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             34   62  +19      82.97     4.70    25.84     5.62    55.99    98.04    68.29P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   61  +17      83.50     4.94    23.75     6.68    58.15    97.93    70.15P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              33   59  +10      78.99     4.97    13.19     1.40    20.38    87.60    37.47P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         31   56  +15      79.82     5.54    19.90     2.53    30.02    89.35    43.40P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   54  +15      72.36     4.95    15.98     0.04     3.00    46.62    13.41P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           33   51  +10      71.87     5.03    14.64     0.04     2.17    42.91    13.20P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            33   50   +8      69.41     4.90    10.39     0.01     0.59    23.11     6.00P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                34   48   -1      64.92     4.76    -0.45     0.00     0.02     4.61     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            33   46   +4      66.30     4.98     7.75     0.00     0.09     9.68     2.55P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            32   46   -1      63.54     5.06    -3.20     0.00     0.04     3.08     0.62P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            34   44   +8      59.86     4.69     7.12     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   33   44   -3      62.12     4.93    -2.50     0.00     0.01     1.58     0.36P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   43   -8      59.67     4.94    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.07P    0.02R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers       33   41  -12      57.32     4.97   -14.40     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.19R    0.04  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   38  -16      51.73     4.78   -22.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.83R    0.97  
Bradford             32   35   -2      51.57     5.06    -5.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.64R    1.04  
Barnet               33   34  -20      47.62     4.71   -27.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.53R    7.23  
Macclesfield         34   33  -11      46.82     4.52   -14.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.64R    7.03  
Hereford             34   31  -20      43.79     4.55   -25.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.41R   24.66  
Dag_&_Red            33   31  -24      46.50     4.88   -27.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.87R   11.76  
Plymouth             34   29  -18      44.60     4.73   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.67R   17.96  
Northampton          32   28  -23      43.63     5.08   -29.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.19R   29.30  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 March 2012, Alfreton_Town vs AFC_Telford; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     35   82  +46     100.65     4.51    51.45    63.10   100.00    73.53P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            34   77  +40      98.36     4.54    47.50    35.73   100.00    55.66P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              34   65  +36      88.23     4.49    46.94     1.16    98.73    40.56P    0.00     0.00  
York               34   60  +31      80.56     4.66    37.29     0.01    76.72    14.89P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          35   59   -3      73.49     4.45    -4.28     0.00    14.24     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          34   58  +17      76.36     4.75    19.91     0.00    37.78     4.64P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      35   57  +13      73.88     4.49    15.61     0.00    19.01     2.59P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            33   55  +19      75.45     4.87    23.01     0.00    32.54     4.94P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             35   55   +6      69.84     4.40     5.60     0.00     3.72     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          34   54   +4      71.41     4.70     5.35     0.00     7.78     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       35   52  +15      66.98     4.37    14.89     0.00     1.15     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      32   49  +11      70.69     5.11    14.79     0.00     8.32     1.23P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     35   47   -4      60.02     4.46    -7.66     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   43   -6      56.94     4.42    -8.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           34   41  -14      54.60     4.58   -18.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Stockport          36   35  -17      50.18     4.36   -14.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.05R    0.00  
Newport_County     34   34   -8      49.98     4.61    -8.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.15R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       35   33  -15      49.52     4.51   -12.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.82R    0.02  
AFC_Telford        34   33  -15      46.65     4.63   -19.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.26R    0.03  
Alfreton_Town      34   29  -31      39.54     4.30   -41.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.44R    3.21  
Darlington         35   28  -15      42.95     4.34   -14.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.81R    0.44  
Kettering          35   28  -43      39.51     4.27   -49.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.65R    2.83  
Hayes_&_Yeading    34   27  -28      39.22     4.48   -35.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.53R    2.97  
Bath_City          35   18  -39      28.30     4.18   -46.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.26R   90.50  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10