Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 3 March 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 26 February 2012, Arsenal vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        26   63  +48      88.27     4.30    62.92    55.45    98.99    99.93    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   61  +37      87.76     4.05    54.75    44.41    98.43    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   53  +21      74.19     4.58    28.48     0.15     2.34    65.49    89.08    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   46  +16      68.23     4.60    25.74     0.00     0.11    14.00    46.67    95.76     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   46  +16      69.14     4.38    27.08     0.00     0.14    19.36    55.64    97.58     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       26   43   +0      59.16     4.60    -0.90     0.00     0.00     0.22     2.05    33.87     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.75     4.86    13.16     0.00     0.00     1.04     6.52    66.05     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   35   -5      48.34     4.56   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   33   +4      48.20     4.53     1.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.07R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.56     4.86    -0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.75     0.01R    0.00  
Fulham          26   33   -4      48.94     4.49    -4.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.84     0.02R    0.00  
Stoke           26   33  -12      46.96     4.47   -16.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.14R    0.00  
West_Brom       26   32   -2      45.98     4.46    -7.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.23R    0.00  
Swansea         26   30   -6      43.40     4.43   -10.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.28R    0.04  
Aston_Villa     26   29   -5      43.60     4.53    -8.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.98R    0.02  
Wolverhampton   26   22  -21      33.95     4.41   -28.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.17R   11.50  
QPR             26   21  -18      30.89     4.05   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.89R   27.38  
Blackburn       26   21  -22      33.91     4.48   -28.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.15R   11.98  
Bolton          26   20  -25      33.79     4.55   -30.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.80R   12.76  
Wigan           26   20  -27      30.56     4.14   -37.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.23R   36.32  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 2 March 2012, Blackpool vs Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      33   62  +29      84.79     4.92    36.61    41.70    71.69    98.53    79.21P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   61  +19      84.97     5.19    26.12    39.55    68.18    97.79    76.35P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          32   57  +14      78.87     5.06    17.91     7.33    20.39    83.33    36.40P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        34   56  +13      75.75     4.88    18.05     1.86     7.51    66.15    22.01P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   54  +21      78.10     5.07    28.03     6.01    18.61    81.80    39.89P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.04     5.08    16.74     2.50     8.77    66.61    22.63P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         33   53   +6      70.22     4.87     5.28     0.12     0.74    20.69     3.98P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    32   53   +4      72.46     5.04     4.62     0.54     2.27    34.38     8.07P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             32   52   +6      71.85     4.97     7.34     0.36     1.55    30.53     7.20P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     33   49   +4      66.83     4.95     3.86     0.03     0.16     8.19     1.65P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          33   47   +5      65.33     4.92     5.61     0.00     0.05     4.56     0.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester        32   45   +6      65.47     5.14     7.77     0.01     0.07     5.66     1.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   +3      62.34     4.95     2.25     0.00     0.01     1.31     0.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley         33   42   -7      56.43     4.75   -12.34     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.64R    0.01  
Derby            32   42   -9      59.00     4.98   -12.15     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P    0.28R    0.00  
Ipswich          32   40  -10      58.46     5.14   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.01P    0.52R    0.01  
Watford          33   40  -14      55.66     4.86   -17.71     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     1.49R    0.03  
Peterborough     32   38   -1      56.04     5.34    -3.36     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.73R    0.04  
Millwall         33   34  -11      49.87     4.82   -13.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.02R    1.33  
Nott'm_Forest    32   31  -22      48.43     4.98   -24.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.88R    3.59  
Bristol_City     33   31  -24      45.34     4.67   -29.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.36R    9.46  
Coventry         33   28  -17      42.35     4.58   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.92R   22.68  
Portsmouth       32   26   -1      45.50     4.95    -0.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.32R    8.50  
Doncaster        31   25  -25      39.45     4.89   -34.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.82R   54.35  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 29 February 2012, Sheff_Utd vs Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        33   75  +40      99.73     4.79    50.48    87.07    98.10   100.00    98.70P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       32   65  +29      91.24     5.06    39.50    10.38    67.02    99.96    78.56P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   60  +14      81.59     5.00    19.69     0.15     3.93    96.45    21.83P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    32   59  +29      85.32     5.14    39.93     1.61    17.74    99.43    47.43P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         32   58  +27      84.00     5.15    37.41     0.79    13.07    98.91    37.74P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       31   49  +16      72.48     5.43    20.32     0.00     0.13    56.70     9.37P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    33   49   +4      66.74     4.95     3.87     0.00     0.00    11.51     1.45P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        31   49   -4      68.46     5.39    -6.05     0.00     0.01    19.97     2.39P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       31   44   +6      65.31     5.36     7.10     0.00     0.00     9.51     1.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth     33   44   -1      61.46     4.89    -1.49     0.00     0.00     1.92     0.31P    0.09R    0.00  
Hartlepool      33   44   -2      59.84     4.78    -5.03     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.10P    0.22R    0.00  
Colchester      31   41   -4      60.43     5.37    -5.79     0.00     0.00     1.72     0.28P    0.47R    0.00  
Preston         31   40   -7      60.48     5.46    -7.35     0.00     0.00     1.78     0.27P    0.57R    0.00  
Bury            33   40  -12      54.96     4.87   -16.70     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    4.86R    0.06  
Oldham          30   39   -8      58.60     5.48   -11.43     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.13P    1.64R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient   31   39  -10      57.61     5.23   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.04P    2.17R    0.03  
Tranmere        32   34   -7      51.96     5.00    -8.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.87R    0.63  
Yeovil          32   33  -14      49.15     4.96   -19.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.99R    2.81  
Exeter          33   33  -19      47.75     4.76   -23.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.82R    4.78  
Walsall         32   32   -6      48.58     4.94    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.43R    2.83  
Scunthorpe      32   32   -8      50.49     5.21    -9.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   22.24R    1.76  
Wycombe         33   29  -19      42.95     4.82   -25.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.37R   23.86  
Rochdale        33   29  -23      43.94     4.74   -27.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.76R   18.49  
Chesterfield    33   27  -21      40.60     4.75   -27.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.50R   44.74  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 February 2012, Barnet vs Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              32   67  +33      94.37     5.00    45.22    86.90    98.81   100.00    99.22P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           33   63  +22      81.30     4.90    22.70     2.16    38.82    96.56    50.84P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   60  +17      83.99     5.17    23.93     5.20    60.89    98.45    72.04P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             33   59  +17      81.47     4.93    24.06     1.95    42.21    96.58    57.93P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         30   56  +16      81.70     5.74    21.68     3.29    42.80    94.63    54.64P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              32   56   +9      77.14     5.18    11.86     0.45    12.74    81.11    30.06P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   51  +13      70.03     5.13    13.00     0.02     1.21    34.08     8.66P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            32   49   +8      69.75     5.08    10.35     0.01     0.93    30.29     7.98P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   48   +9      70.18     5.25    13.54     0.01     1.23    35.10    10.43P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                33   47   -1      65.21     4.95    -0.62     0.00     0.06     7.15     1.73P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            32   45   +4      67.08     5.23     8.34     0.00     0.27    16.13     4.35P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            33   44   +9      61.22     4.94     8.06     0.00     0.00     2.14     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            31   43   -2      61.80     5.27    -4.43     0.00     0.02     2.46     0.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   32   43   -3      62.63     5.17    -2.31     0.00     0.01     3.25     0.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   43   -6      61.07     5.18    -7.90     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       32   40  -12      58.13     5.19   -13.82     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.08P    0.16R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   38  -15      53.04     5.03   -21.89     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    2.16R    0.44  
Bradford             31   35   -1      52.99     5.22    -4.72     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    2.01R    0.51  
Barnet               32   33  -20      47.62     4.91   -27.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.02R    6.15  
Macclesfield         33   32  -11      46.78     4.77   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.37R    6.29  
Plymouth             33   29  -17      46.00     4.99   -18.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.87R    9.81  
Hereford             33   28  -21      42.14     4.76   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.46R   32.63  
Dag_&_Red            32   28  -25      44.82     5.10   -28.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.38R   17.13  
Northampton          31   27  -23      43.32     5.22   -30.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.55R   27.03  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Barrow vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     34   79  +43      99.27     4.73    48.83    58.53   100.00    70.00P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            33   74  +39      97.55     4.76    47.77    39.79    99.99    58.50P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   62  +34      87.67     4.61    46.86     1.66    97.53    40.36P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          34   58   -3      74.15     4.68    -3.87     0.00    16.17     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
York               33   57  +29      79.84     4.81    36.93     0.01    66.22    13.45P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      34   57  +14      75.92     4.75    17.66     0.00    29.65     4.13P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          33   55  +16      75.12     4.95    19.52     0.00    24.94     3.18P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.60     5.10    24.42     0.01    37.84     6.14P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   54   +5      73.46     4.95     7.45     0.00    14.16     1.37P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             34   52   +5      67.54     4.60     3.50     0.00     1.31     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       34   49  +14      65.26     4.60    13.79     0.00     0.48     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.07     5.37    15.87     0.00    11.69     1.72P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     34   46   -4      59.56     4.64    -9.27     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           33   41  -11      55.69     4.77   -16.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   40   -7      54.80     4.61   -10.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Newport_County     33   33   -8      50.26     4.83    -8.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.65R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       34   33  -14      50.46     4.71   -12.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.91R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        33   32  -15      46.98     4.91   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.52R    0.08  
Stockport          35   32  -18      48.12     4.56   -16.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.86R    0.04  
Darlington         34   28  -14      44.71     4.61   -13.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.40R    0.28  
Alfreton_Town      33   28  -31      40.05     4.62   -41.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.34R    3.93  
Kettering          34   28  -42      40.31     4.45   -49.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.89R    2.65  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   27  -26      39.77     4.59   -35.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.04R    2.99  
Bath_City          34   18  -37      28.67     4.27   -46.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.25R   90.01  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10