Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 2 March 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 26 February 2012, Arsenal vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        26   63  +48      88.26     4.29    62.89    55.86    98.90    99.92    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   61  +37      87.73     4.07    54.65    44.02    98.29    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   53  +21      74.31     4.57    28.68     0.12     2.54    66.49    89.46    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   46  +16      68.30     4.58    25.86     0.00     0.10    13.96    47.07    95.92     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   46  +16      69.05     4.39    26.91     0.00     0.16    18.41    54.56    97.51     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       26   43   +0      59.19     4.65    -0.83     0.00     0.00     0.24     2.04    34.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.86     4.85    13.32     0.00     0.00     1.04     6.82    66.19     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   35   -5      48.31     4.53   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   33   +4      48.17     4.54     1.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.76     0.07R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.55     4.85    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.68     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          26   33   -4      48.89     4.48    -5.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.02R    0.00  
Stoke           26   33  -12      46.95     4.46   -16.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.14R    0.00  
West_Brom       26   32   -2      45.94     4.44    -7.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.27R    0.00  
Swansea         26   30   -6      43.43     4.44   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.19R    0.04  
Aston_Villa     26   29   -5      43.62     4.55    -8.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.01R    0.02  
Wolverhampton   26   22  -21      33.94     4.40   -28.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.95R   11.20  
QPR             26   21  -18      30.83     4.06   -29.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.94R   27.84  
Blackburn       26   21  -22      33.90     4.46   -29.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.24R   11.75  
Bolton          26   20  -25      33.75     4.52   -30.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.09R   12.83  
Wigan           26   20  -27      30.58     4.13   -37.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.05R   36.31  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Birmingham vs Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      33   62  +29      84.80     4.92    36.61    41.49    70.80    98.47    78.54P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   61  +19      84.89     5.18    25.99    38.52    67.05    97.63    75.60P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          32   57  +14      78.86     5.10    17.90     7.19    19.74    82.76    35.85P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        33   55  +13      76.47     5.09    18.58     2.97    10.12    69.48    24.59P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   54  +21      78.15     5.09    28.12     6.16    18.44    81.16    39.50P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.19     5.13    16.96     2.59     9.01    66.78    22.73P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         33   53   +6      70.24     4.87     5.29     0.14     0.70    19.90     3.90P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    32   53   +4      72.56     5.04     4.74     0.51     2.18    34.62     8.17P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             31   51   +6      71.83     5.12     6.78     0.42     1.72    30.00     7.19P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     33   49   +4      66.87     4.93     3.93     0.02     0.13     7.84     1.59P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          33   47   +5      65.37     4.91     5.69     0.00     0.04     4.45     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        32   45   +6      65.38     5.12     7.66     0.01     0.06     5.25     1.12P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   +3      62.34     4.93     2.26     0.00     0.00     1.18     0.20P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley         33   42   -7      56.38     4.76   -12.43     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.68R    0.00  
Derby            32   42   -9      58.96     4.99   -12.20     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.29R    0.00  
Ipswich          32   40  -10      58.46     5.17   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.46R    0.01  
Watford          33   40  -14      55.60     4.86   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.59R    0.03  
Peterborough     32   38   -1      56.16     5.35    -3.20     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    1.49R    0.03  
Millwall         33   34  -11      49.86     4.85   -13.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.94R    1.33  
Nott'm_Forest    32   31  -22      48.37     4.98   -24.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.06R    3.50  
Bristol_City     33   31  -24      45.35     4.68   -29.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.90R    9.30  
Coventry         33   28  -17      42.31     4.60   -21.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.13R   22.87  
Portsmouth       32   26   -1      45.43     4.94    -0.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.38R    8.81  
Doncaster        31   25  -25      39.48     4.84   -34.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.06R   54.13  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 29 February 2012, Sheff_Utd vs Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        33   75  +40      99.83     4.79    50.61    87.02    98.02   100.00    98.69P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       32   65  +29      91.33     5.06    39.61    10.58    67.69    99.97    78.84P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   60  +14      81.53     4.98    19.59     0.11     3.75    96.45    22.12P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    32   59  +29      85.28     5.11    39.87     1.55    17.54    99.38    47.32P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         32   58  +27      84.00     5.12    37.41     0.74    12.87    98.97    37.42P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       31   49  +16      72.37     5.42    20.14     0.00     0.11    56.15     9.08P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    33   49   +4      66.81     4.94     3.96     0.00     0.00    11.96     1.59P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        31   49   -4      68.37     5.39    -6.20     0.00     0.02    19.96     2.29P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       31   44   +6      65.33     5.36     7.11     0.00     0.00     9.51     1.46P    0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth     33   44   -1      61.57     4.92    -1.37     0.00     0.00     1.93     0.35P    0.11R    0.00  
Hartlepool      33   44   -2      59.74     4.82    -5.15     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.10P    0.27R    0.00  
Colchester      31   41   -4      60.47     5.37    -5.76     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.23P    0.48R    0.00  
Preston         31   40   -7      60.43     5.47    -7.40     0.00     0.00     1.88     0.35P    0.58R    0.01  
Bury            33   40  -12      54.96     4.88   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    4.92R    0.08  
Oldham          30   39   -8      58.51     5.46   -11.55     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.11P    1.58R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   31   39  -10      57.54     5.22   -13.18     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P    2.26R    0.04  
Tranmere        32   34   -7      51.98     5.03    -8.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.93R    0.57  
Yeovil          32   33  -14      49.17     4.97   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.43R    2.76  
Exeter          33   33  -19      47.79     4.76   -23.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.65R    4.76  
Walsall         32   32   -6      48.56     4.93    -9.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.65R    2.89  
Scunthorpe      32   32   -8      50.42     5.23    -9.38     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   22.72R    1.74  
Wycombe         33   29  -19      42.98     4.82   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.21R   24.00  
Rochdale        33   29  -23      44.00     4.77   -27.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.09R   18.99  
Chesterfield    33   27  -21      40.69     4.73   -27.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.10R   44.15  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 February 2012, Barnet vs Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              32   67  +33      94.28     4.99    45.13    86.50    98.74   100.00    99.21P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           33   63  +22      81.30     4.91    22.73     2.40    38.82    96.46    51.03P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   60  +17      84.03     5.13    23.98     5.25    60.94    98.51    72.14P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             33   59  +17      81.53     4.95    24.11     2.17    42.62    96.70    58.37P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         30   56  +16      81.63     5.75    21.56     3.21    42.28    94.53    54.14P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              32   56   +9      77.19     5.17    11.91     0.43    12.91    81.20    29.93P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   51  +13      70.05     5.13    13.04     0.01     1.21    33.93     8.57P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            32   49   +8      69.75     5.07    10.35     0.01     0.84    30.13     7.90P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   48   +9      70.25     5.26    13.64     0.01     1.30    35.75    10.54P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                33   47   -1      65.20     4.99    -0.59     0.00     0.06     7.42     1.82P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            32   45   +4      66.99     5.20     8.22     0.00     0.24    15.42     4.20P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            33   44   +9      61.20     4.95     8.05     0.00     0.01     2.13     0.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            31   43   -2      61.91     5.24    -4.26     0.00     0.01     2.49     0.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   32   43   -3      62.69     5.17    -2.21     0.00     0.02     3.16     0.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   43   -6      61.12     5.20    -7.85     0.00     0.01     1.68     0.30P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       32   40  -12      58.00     5.19   -14.04     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.09P    0.17R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   38  -15      53.06     5.04   -21.85     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.06R    0.51  
Bradford             31   35   -1      53.03     5.26    -4.68     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.78R    0.42  
Barnet               32   33  -20      47.67     4.91   -27.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.56R    6.12  
Macclesfield         33   32  -11      46.82     4.76   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.08R    5.98  
Plymouth             33   29  -17      46.03     4.97   -18.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.76R    9.47  
Hereford             33   28  -21      42.13     4.75   -26.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.22R   32.19  
Dag_&_Red            32   28  -25      44.60     5.11   -29.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.01R   18.07  
Northampton          31   27  -23      43.29     5.23   -30.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.33R   27.22  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Barrow vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     34   79  +43      99.29     4.72    48.88    58.51   100.00    70.28P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            33   74  +39      97.58     4.76    47.81    39.88    99.99    58.41P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   62  +34      87.62     4.60    46.78     1.58    97.41    39.92P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          34   58   -3      74.07     4.72    -4.00     0.00    16.11     1.07P    0.00     0.00  
York               33   57  +29      79.78     4.84    36.82     0.02    65.96    13.29P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      34   57  +14      75.91     4.74    17.64     0.00    29.66     4.25P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          33   55  +16      75.10     4.97    19.46     0.00    24.89     3.34P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.64     5.10    24.47     0.00    38.35     6.28P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   54   +5      73.42     4.96     7.36     0.00    14.04     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             34   52   +5      67.47     4.61     3.45     0.00     1.26     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       34   49  +14      65.27     4.60    13.77     0.00     0.51     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.06     5.35    15.84     0.00    11.81     1.78P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     34   46   -4      59.72     4.63    -8.96     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           33   41  -11      55.70     4.79   -16.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   40   -7      54.81     4.61   -10.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Newport_County     33   33   -8      50.23     4.85    -8.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.72R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       34   33  -14      50.51     4.72   -12.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.93R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        33   32  -15      46.94     4.89   -19.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.68R    0.07  
Stockport          35   32  -18      48.11     4.58   -16.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.87R    0.05  
Darlington         34   28  -14      44.75     4.61   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.37R    0.28  
Alfreton_Town      33   28  -31      40.04     4.57   -41.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.77R    3.85  
Kettering          34   28  -42      40.30     4.49   -49.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.75R    2.75  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   27  -26      39.83     4.64   -35.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.52R    2.99  
Bath_City          34   18  -37      28.69     4.30   -46.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.28R   90.01  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10