Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 1 March 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 26 February 2012, Arsenal vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        26   63  +48      88.29     4.31    62.95    55.73    98.86    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   61  +37      87.75     4.04    54.72    44.12    98.35    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   53  +21      74.30     4.58    28.67     0.15     2.53    66.42    89.04    99.83     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   46  +16      68.38     4.58    25.98     0.00     0.12    14.46    47.72    96.16     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   46  +16      69.01     4.39    26.83     0.00     0.13    17.98    54.42    97.23     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       26   43   +0      59.21     4.62    -0.81     0.00     0.00     0.22     1.95    34.13     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.85     4.88    13.29     0.00     0.00     1.04     6.82    66.15     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   35   -5      48.22     4.53   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.04R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   33   +4      48.22     4.53     1.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.06R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.53     4.85    -0.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.57     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          26   33   -4      48.92     4.46    -4.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.02R    0.00  
Stoke           26   33  -12      46.96     4.47   -16.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.16R    0.00  
West_Brom       26   32   -2      45.92     4.45    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.28R    0.00  
Swansea         26   30   -6      43.49     4.46   -10.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.33R    0.03  
Aston_Villa     26   29   -5      43.58     4.55    -8.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.92R    0.02  
Wolverhampton   26   22  -21      33.84     4.40   -28.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.73R   11.68  
QPR             26   21  -18      30.82     4.03   -29.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.16R   27.57  
Blackburn       26   21  -22      33.93     4.46   -28.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.02R   11.83  
Bolton          26   20  -25      33.84     4.54   -30.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.31R   12.54  
Wigan           26   20  -27      30.55     4.14   -37.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.98R   36.32  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Birmingham vs Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      33   62  +29      84.80     4.89    36.67    41.86    71.15    98.57    78.99P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   61  +19      84.85     5.21    25.96    38.27    66.70    97.58    75.31P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          32   57  +14      78.83     5.09    17.85     7.27    19.85    82.64    35.90P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        33   55  +13      76.48     5.07    18.62     3.04    10.00    69.95    24.40P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   54  +21      78.12     5.10    28.05     6.04    18.65    81.25    39.52P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.09     5.13    16.81     2.47     8.79    66.37    22.88P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         33   53   +6      70.17     4.86     5.18     0.12     0.68    19.67     3.83P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    32   53   +4      72.51     5.03     4.67     0.49     2.18    34.41     8.00P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             31   51   +6      71.76     5.16     6.64     0.41     1.75    29.78     7.09P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     33   49   +4      66.93     4.94     4.02     0.03     0.15     8.08     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          33   47   +5      65.40     4.92     5.73     0.00     0.03     4.64     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        32   45   +6      65.38     5.16     7.67     0.01     0.06     5.33     1.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   +3      62.36     4.94     2.27     0.00     0.01     1.22     0.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley         33   42   -7      56.48     4.78   -12.28     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.71R    0.01  
Derby            32   42   -9      59.06     5.04   -12.06     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    0.28R    0.00  
Ipswich          32   40  -10      58.44     5.15   -11.41     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.47R    0.01  
Watford          33   40  -14      55.62     4.89   -17.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.62R    0.05  
Peterborough     32   38   -1      56.09     5.37    -3.25     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.56R    0.03  
Millwall         33   34  -11      49.88     4.82   -13.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.01R    1.36  
Nott'm_Forest    32   31  -22      48.39     4.98   -24.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.32R    3.50  
Bristol_City     33   31  -24      45.36     4.66   -29.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.65R    9.34  
Coventry         33   28  -17      42.40     4.60   -21.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.38R   22.39  
Portsmouth       32   26   -1      45.42     4.97    -0.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.15R    8.90  
Doncaster        31   25  -25      39.48     4.87   -34.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.84R   54.42  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 29 February 2012, Sheff_Utd vs Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        33   75  +40      99.77     4.79    50.59    87.00    97.91   100.00    98.57P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       32   65  +29      91.36     5.06    39.64    10.54    67.72    99.98    78.86P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   60  +14      81.59     4.98    19.74     0.16     3.87    96.66    22.06P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    32   59  +29      85.31     5.12    39.93     1.44    17.41    99.40    47.05P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         32   58  +27      84.10     5.11    37.55     0.85    12.97    98.96    38.36P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       31   49  +16      72.50     5.38    20.34     0.00     0.11    56.82     8.97P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    33   49   +4      66.79     4.95     3.93     0.00     0.00    11.83     1.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle        31   49   -4      68.35     5.36    -6.19     0.00     0.01    19.60     2.18P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       31   44   +6      65.32     5.34     7.12     0.00     0.00     9.50     1.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth     33   44   -1      61.49     4.93    -1.48     0.00     0.00     1.89     0.28P    0.08R    0.00  
Hartlepool      33   44   -2      59.78     4.78    -5.10     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.10P    0.27R    0.00  
Colchester      31   41   -4      60.48     5.37    -5.74     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.21P    0.50R    0.00  
Preston         31   40   -7      60.42     5.45    -7.36     0.00     0.00     1.73     0.27P    0.60R    0.00  
Bury            33   40  -12      54.91     4.86   -16.74     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P    4.86R    0.07  
Oldham          30   39   -8      58.60     5.47   -11.46     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.10P    1.50R    0.03  
Leyton_Orient   31   39  -10      57.51     5.24   -13.28     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P    2.39R    0.04  
Tranmere        32   34   -7      52.01     5.03    -8.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.79R    0.60  
Yeovil          32   33  -14      49.16     4.96   -19.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.13R    2.75  
Exeter          33   33  -19      47.74     4.77   -23.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.91R    4.56  
Walsall         32   32   -6      48.53     4.93    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.71R    2.84  
Scunthorpe      32   32   -8      50.50     5.22    -9.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   22.07R    1.69  
Wycombe         33   29  -19      42.88     4.83   -25.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.82R   24.34  
Rochdale        33   29  -23      44.01     4.76   -27.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.88R   18.48  
Chesterfield    33   27  -21      40.61     4.74   -27.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.49R   44.59  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 February 2012, Barnet vs Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              32   67  +33      94.23     5.02    45.07    86.08    98.71   100.00    99.24P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           33   63  +22      81.33     4.90    22.77     2.32    39.08    96.44    51.23P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   60  +17      84.06     5.13    24.02     5.68    61.39    98.52    72.39P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             33   59  +17      81.57     4.95    24.16     2.21    43.00    96.73    58.44P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         30   56  +16      81.51     5.76    21.38     3.26    41.32    94.13    53.23P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              32   56   +9      77.10     5.19    11.78     0.43    12.66    80.79    29.95P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   51  +13      70.07     5.12    13.07     0.01     1.23    33.98     8.67P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            32   49   +8      69.73     5.11    10.31     0.01     0.90    30.15     8.02P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   48   +9      70.24     5.25    13.62     0.01     1.30    35.78    10.54P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                33   47   -1      65.30     4.97    -0.47     0.00     0.07     7.57     1.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham            32   45   +4      67.07     5.21     8.31     0.00     0.29    15.94     4.34P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            33   44   +9      61.20     4.94     8.06     0.00     0.00     2.06     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            31   43   -2      61.84     5.29    -4.34     0.00     0.03     2.71     0.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   32   43   -3      62.61     5.16    -2.32     0.00     0.02     3.06     0.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   43   -6      61.10     5.20    -7.86     0.00     0.00     1.70     0.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       32   40  -12      58.03     5.20   -13.97     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.10P    0.16R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   38  -15      53.10     5.07   -21.79     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    2.19R    0.46  
Bradford             31   35   -1      52.97     5.24    -4.76     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.97R    0.46  
Barnet               32   33  -20      47.61     4.91   -27.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.21R    6.26  
Macclesfield         33   32  -11      46.86     4.75   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.93R    5.97  
Plymouth             33   29  -17      46.02     4.97   -18.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.80R    9.71  
Hereford             33   28  -21      42.11     4.69   -26.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.48R   32.69  
Dag_&_Red            32   28  -25      44.74     5.13   -28.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.09R   17.65  
Northampton          31   27  -23      43.37     5.23   -30.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.14R   26.77  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Barrow vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     34   79  +43      99.32     4.71    48.90    58.78   100.00    70.23P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            33   74  +39      97.53     4.78    47.74    39.69    99.99    58.28P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   62  +34      87.64     4.58    46.85     1.51    97.50    40.31P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          34   58   -3      74.07     4.69    -4.01     0.00    15.55     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
York               33   57  +29      79.88     4.80    37.01     0.01    66.63    13.42P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      34   57  +14      75.90     4.70    17.62     0.00    29.23     4.13P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          33   55  +16      75.12     4.96    19.48     0.00    24.70     3.30P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.63     5.13    24.47     0.01    38.45     6.19P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   54   +5      73.53     4.93     7.52     0.00    14.60     1.35P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             34   52   +5      67.56     4.63     3.55     0.00     1.37     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       34   49  +14      65.25     4.59    13.73     0.00     0.49     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.03     5.34    15.81     0.00    11.46     1.68P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     34   46   -4      59.59     4.63    -9.19     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           33   41  -11      55.62     4.80   -16.31     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   40   -7      54.79     4.60   -10.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Newport_County     33   33   -8      50.20     4.87    -8.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.82R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       34   33  -14      50.62     4.74   -12.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.87R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        33   32  -15      47.00     4.90   -19.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.37R    0.07  
Stockport          35   32  -18      48.12     4.57   -16.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.77R    0.04  
Darlington         34   28  -14      44.68     4.59   -13.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.52R    0.30  
Alfreton_Town      33   28  -31      40.08     4.62   -41.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.14R    3.84  
Kettering          34   28  -42      40.25     4.42   -49.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.24R    2.75  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   27  -26      39.80     4.58   -35.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.89R    2.84  
Bath_City          34   18  -37      28.63     4.29   -46.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.25R   90.15  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10