Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 29 February 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 26 February 2012, Arsenal vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        26   63  +48      88.25     4.33    62.85    55.23    98.88    99.93    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   61  +37      87.77     4.04    54.78    44.68    98.44    99.93    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   53  +21      74.21     4.57    28.53     0.09     2.40    65.97    88.99    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   46  +16      68.37     4.58    25.97     0.00     0.12    14.34    47.48    95.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   46  +16      69.11     4.37    26.99     0.00     0.15    18.66    54.85    97.52     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       26   43   +0      59.24     4.61    -0.77     0.00     0.00     0.22     2.02    34.49     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.77     4.88    13.18     0.00     0.00     0.94     6.62    65.38     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   35   -5      48.27     4.52   -11.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.72     0.02R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   33   +4      48.22     4.56     1.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.06R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.51     4.87    -0.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.68     0.01R    0.00  
Fulham          26   33   -4      48.91     4.47    -5.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.02R    0.00  
Stoke           26   33  -12      46.90     4.46   -16.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.15R    0.00  
West_Brom       26   32   -2      46.01     4.46    -7.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.25R    0.00  
Swansea         26   30   -6      43.43     4.44   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.22R    0.04  
Aston_Villa     26   29   -5      43.57     4.55    -8.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.03R    0.01  
Wolverhampton   26   22  -21      33.93     4.39   -28.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.08R   11.46  
QPR             26   21  -18      30.89     4.06   -29.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.94R   27.07  
Blackburn       26   21  -22      33.93     4.48   -28.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.84R   11.78  
Bolton          26   20  -25      33.80     4.57   -30.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.65R   12.71  
Wigan           26   20  -27      30.50     4.12   -37.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.72R   36.92  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Birmingham vs Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      33   62  +29      84.82     4.92    36.65    41.59    70.79    98.51    78.49P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   61  +19      84.94     5.18    26.09    38.95    67.17    97.73    75.67P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          32   57  +14      78.83     5.07    17.83     7.04    19.78    82.46    36.02P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        33   55  +13      76.55     5.07    18.69     2.97    10.30    70.25    24.77P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   54  +21      78.10     5.07    28.04     5.95    18.27    81.13    39.16P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.09     5.11    16.83     2.45     8.70    66.16    22.37P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         33   53   +6      70.23     4.89     5.28     0.13     0.75    20.03     4.07P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    32   53   +4      72.53     5.03     4.72     0.45     2.12    34.14     7.79P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             31   51   +6      71.80     5.19     6.72     0.43     1.87    30.47     7.57P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     33   49   +4      66.82     4.94     3.86     0.02     0.14     7.68     1.58P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          33   47   +5      65.33     4.89     5.59     0.00     0.04     4.20     0.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester        32   45   +6      65.45     5.14     7.77     0.01     0.08     5.48     1.27P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   +3      62.32     4.94     2.25     0.00     0.01     1.22     0.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley         33   42   -7      56.47     4.75   -12.28     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.67R    0.00  
Derby            32   42   -9      59.05     4.98   -12.10     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    0.24R    0.00  
Ipswich          32   40  -10      58.48     5.14   -11.34     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.44R    0.00  
Watford          33   40  -14      55.56     4.83   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.60R    0.03  
Peterborough     32   38   -1      56.17     5.33    -3.18     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.51R    0.05  
Millwall         33   34  -11      49.82     4.81   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.97R    1.23  
Nott'm_Forest    32   31  -22      48.39     4.94   -24.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.03R    3.52  
Bristol_City     33   31  -24      45.34     4.68   -29.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.61R    9.61  
Coventry         33   28  -17      42.29     4.59   -21.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.68R   22.90  
Portsmouth       32   26   -1      45.48     4.98    -0.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.37R    8.65  
Doncaster        31   25  -25      39.46     4.87   -34.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.86R   54.00  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 February 2012, Bury vs Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        33   75  +40      99.81     4.80    50.58    88.54    98.17   100.00    98.72P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       31   62  +28      90.39     5.27    39.67     8.81    62.28    99.94    75.41P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   60  +14      81.54     4.98    19.65     0.14     4.66    96.53    22.63P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    32   59  +29      85.28     5.11    39.86     1.73    20.22    99.34    48.78P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         32   58  +27      83.99     5.11    37.39     0.79    14.50    98.92    39.05P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       31   49  +16      72.44     5.43    20.28     0.00     0.16    56.59     8.89P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    33   49   +4      66.78     4.90     3.94     0.00     0.00    11.77     1.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle        31   49   -4      68.34     5.39    -6.17     0.00     0.02    19.83     2.35P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       31   44   +6      65.38     5.37     7.18     0.00     0.00     9.79     1.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth     33   44   -1      61.55     4.94    -1.39     0.00     0.00     1.97     0.35P    0.09R    0.00  
Hartlepool      33   44   -2      59.77     4.79    -5.09     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.06P    0.25R    0.00  
Colchester      31   41   -4      60.45     5.35    -5.80     0.00     0.00     1.57     0.23P    0.46R    0.00  
Preston         31   40   -7      60.42     5.51    -7.41     0.00     0.00     1.71     0.26P    0.59R    0.00  
Bury            33   40  -12      54.95     4.86   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    5.07R    0.09  
Oldham          30   39   -8      58.48     5.47   -11.61     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.13P    1.59R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   31   39  -10      57.62     5.24   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.04P    2.32R    0.02  
Tranmere        32   34   -7      51.91     5.03    -8.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.28R    0.64  
Yeovil          32   33  -14      49.15     4.95   -19.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.66R    2.86  
Exeter          33   33  -19      47.77     4.80   -23.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.30R    4.78  
Walsall         32   32   -6      48.58     4.96    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.05R    2.97  
Scunthorpe      31   32   -7      51.26     5.41    -9.27     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   19.19R    1.41  
Wycombe         33   29  -19      42.97     4.82   -25.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.86R   24.24  
Rochdale        33   29  -23      43.96     4.77   -27.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.82R   18.59  
Chesterfield    33   27  -21      40.67     4.75   -27.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.47R   44.36  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 28 February 2012, Barnet vs Bradford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              32   67  +33      94.35     4.97    45.20    86.97    98.78   100.00    99.21P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           33   63  +22      81.38     4.93    22.82     2.32    39.48    96.43    51.62P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   60  +17      84.01     5.15    23.97     5.21    60.82    98.49    72.11P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             33   59  +17      81.50     4.97    24.09     2.01    42.40    96.69    57.97P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         30   56  +16      81.64     5.76    21.56     3.11    42.24    94.41    53.94P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              32   56   +9      77.14     5.16    11.83     0.36    12.62    81.04    30.02P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   51  +13      70.09     5.12    13.10     0.01     1.26    34.12     8.64P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            32   49   +8      69.76     5.10    10.33     0.00     0.84    30.45     7.95P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   48   +9      70.21     5.25    13.59     0.01     1.19    35.76    10.56P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                33   47   -1      65.21     4.98    -0.60     0.00     0.07     7.25     1.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            32   45   +4      67.00     5.22     8.28     0.00     0.27    15.75     4.15P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            33   44   +9      61.23     4.92     8.11     0.00     0.01     1.95     0.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            31   43   -2      61.76     5.26    -4.45     0.00     0.02     2.43     0.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   32   43   -3      62.58     5.15    -2.36     0.00     0.01     3.08     0.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        32   43   -6      61.06     5.19    -7.89     0.00     0.01     1.68     0.29P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       32   40  -12      58.10     5.21   -13.90     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.06P    0.17R    0.03  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   38  -15      52.98     5.03   -21.99     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    2.31R    0.55  
Bradford             31   35   -1      52.99     5.25    -4.73     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    2.03R    0.45  
Barnet               32   33  -20      47.60     4.89   -27.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.12R    6.34  
Macclesfield         33   32  -11      46.87     4.76   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.85R    6.08  
Plymouth             33   29  -17      45.99     4.99   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.28R    9.98  
Hereford             33   28  -21      42.24     4.73   -26.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.52R   31.67  
Dag_&_Red            32   28  -25      44.68     5.09   -29.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.67R   17.74  
Northampton          31   27  -23      43.39     5.25   -30.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.00R   27.17  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Barrow vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     34   79  +43      99.25     4.71    48.78    58.17   100.00    69.60P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            33   74  +39      97.55     4.76    47.79    40.10    99.99    58.47P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   62  +34      87.71     4.61    46.96     1.71    97.66    40.76P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          34   58   -3      74.03     4.71    -4.09     0.00    15.47     0.95P    0.00     0.00  
York               33   57  +29      79.88     4.80    36.99     0.02    66.92    13.35P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      34   57  +14      75.88     4.73    17.61     0.00    29.21     4.14P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          33   55  +16      75.11     4.95    19.48     0.00    24.90     3.31P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.66     5.09    24.50     0.00    38.34     6.16P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   54   +5      73.41     4.94     7.35     0.00    13.66     1.26P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             34   52   +5      67.56     4.61     3.53     0.00     1.32     0.14P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       34   49  +14      65.23     4.56    13.72     0.00     0.42     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.16     5.35    15.97     0.00    12.10     1.80P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     34   46   -4      59.62     4.65    -9.16     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           33   41  -11      55.68     4.78   -16.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   40   -7      54.81     4.60   -10.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Newport_County     33   33   -8      50.11     4.85    -9.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.78R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       34   33  -14      50.61     4.71   -12.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.69R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        33   32  -15      47.04     4.89   -19.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.32R    0.05  
Stockport          35   32  -18      48.08     4.57   -16.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.82R    0.05  
Darlington         34   28  -14      44.73     4.57   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.25R    0.26  
Alfreton_Town      33   28  -31      40.04     4.58   -41.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.80R    3.96  
Kettering          34   28  -42      40.26     4.47   -49.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.22R    2.65  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   27  -26      39.77     4.59   -35.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.76R    2.95  
Bath_City          34   18  -37      28.65     4.29   -46.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.27R   90.06  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10