Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 28 February 2012 at 05:00:02 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 26 February 2012, Arsenal vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        26   63  +48      88.28     4.29    62.96    55.57    99.03    99.94    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   61  +37      87.75     4.06    54.73    44.27    98.35    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   53  +21      74.21     4.58    28.55     0.16     2.36    66.10    88.87    99.84     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   46  +16      68.32     4.60    25.83     0.00     0.09    14.17    47.74    95.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   46  +16      69.07     4.38    26.98     0.00     0.16    18.72    54.90    97.43     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       26   43   +0      59.13     4.61    -0.94     0.00     0.00     0.23     1.90    33.86     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.79     4.83    13.23     0.00     0.00     0.90     6.55    66.08     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   35   -5      48.33     4.54   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   33   +4      48.25     4.55     2.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.05R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.60     4.85     0.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.71     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          26   33   -4      48.93     4.48    -4.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.80     0.02R    0.00  
Stoke           26   33  -12      47.07     4.48   -15.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.13R    0.00  
West_Brom       26   32   -2      45.93     4.44    -7.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.29R    0.00  
Swansea         26   30   -6      43.46     4.43   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.23R    0.04  
Aston_Villa     26   29   -5      43.53     4.52    -8.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.96R    0.03  
Wolverhampton   26   22  -21      33.91     4.41   -28.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.26R   11.46  
QPR             26   21  -18      30.88     4.08   -29.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.33R   27.54  
Blackburn       26   21  -22      33.85     4.49   -29.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.73R   12.17  
Bolton          26   20  -25      33.74     4.51   -30.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.86R   12.83  
Wigan           26   20  -27      30.55     4.14   -37.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.11R   35.94  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Birmingham vs Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      33   62  +29      84.70     4.88    36.49    41.38    70.80    98.49    78.41P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   61  +19      84.85     5.18    25.96    38.81    67.07    97.61    75.66P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          32   57  +14      78.82     5.05    17.85     7.21    19.79    82.61    35.83P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        33   55  +13      76.49     5.07    18.58     3.03    10.24    69.77    24.75P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   54  +21      78.04     5.10    27.96     6.11    18.33    80.53    39.28P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.01     5.11    16.71     2.33     8.67    65.84    22.31P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         33   53   +6      70.23     4.86     5.27     0.11     0.63    20.14     3.80P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    32   53   +4      72.62     5.03     4.83     0.51     2.30    35.05     8.33P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             31   51   +6      71.85     5.19     6.79     0.48     1.90    30.61     7.62P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     33   49   +4      66.91     4.95     3.99     0.02     0.14     8.06     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          33   47   +5      65.31     4.90     5.60     0.00     0.04     4.27     0.90P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        32   45   +6      65.43     5.12     7.71     0.01     0.08     5.33     1.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   +3      62.35     4.93     2.28     0.00     0.01     1.21     0.22P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley         33   42   -7      56.47     4.77   -12.28     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.75R    0.00  
Derby            32   42   -9      59.05     4.96   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02P    0.25R    0.00  
Ipswich          32   40  -10      58.46     5.14   -11.34     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.49R    0.01  
Watford          33   40  -14      55.56     4.84   -17.82     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     1.57R    0.04  
Peterborough     32   38   -1      56.12     5.29    -3.23     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.44R    0.04  
Millwall         33   34  -11      49.84     4.87   -13.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.35R    1.46  
Nott'm_Forest    32   31  -22      48.45     4.97   -24.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.78R    3.46  
Bristol_City     33   31  -24      45.38     4.68   -28.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.60R    9.28  
Coventry         33   28  -17      42.35     4.60   -21.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.06R   22.75  
Portsmouth       32   26   -1      45.44     4.96    -0.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.64R    8.63  
Doncaster        31   25  -25      39.49     4.86   -34.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.06R   54.32  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 26 February 2012, Sheff_Wed vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        32   72  +36      98.42     5.00    46.96    82.49    96.06   100.00    97.31P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       31   62  +28      90.29     5.30    39.52    12.38    60.54    99.93    74.50P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   60  +14      81.58     4.97    19.66     0.23     4.70    96.87    22.83P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    31   58  +29      85.90     5.31    40.21     3.54    24.27    99.45    51.46P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         32   58  +27      83.91     5.13    37.31     1.36    14.18    98.91    38.45P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        31   49   -4      68.33     5.37    -6.21     0.00     0.02    20.22     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       30   48  +16      72.51     5.62    19.81     0.01     0.21    58.03     9.48P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    32   46   +3      65.11     5.13     2.86     0.00     0.00     7.87     0.91P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       31   44   +6      65.32     5.36     7.13     0.00     0.00     9.94     1.45P    0.03R    0.00  
Bournemouth     33   44   -1      61.49     4.88    -1.47     0.00     0.00     1.97     0.29P    0.11R    0.00  
Hartlepool      32   41   -3      57.95     4.99    -6.34     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.05P    1.38R    0.01  
Colchester      30   40   -4      60.81     5.56    -5.79     0.00     0.00     2.39     0.33P    0.65R    0.00  
Preston         31   40   -7      60.41     5.51    -7.41     0.00     0.00     1.95     0.34P    0.83R    0.01  
Bury            32   40  -11      56.46     5.13   -15.43     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03P    3.54R    0.06  
Leyton_Orient   31   39  -10      57.61     5.22   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.07P    2.63R    0.06  
Oldham          29   38   -8      59.12     5.70   -11.23     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.18P    1.83R    0.04  
Tranmere        32   34   -7      51.95     5.03    -8.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.57R    0.88  
Yeovil          32   33  -14      49.16     4.97   -19.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   35.10R    3.71  
Exeter          33   33  -19      47.80     4.77   -23.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.52R    6.15  
Walsall         32   32   -6      48.61     4.93    -9.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.21R    3.72  
Scunthorpe      31   32   -7      51.19     5.40    -9.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.45R    1.94  
Wycombe         33   29  -19      42.89     4.82   -25.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.87R   29.67  
Rochdale        32   29  -22      45.39     5.00   -26.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.41R   15.78  
Chesterfield    32   27  -17      41.89     4.96   -24.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.85R   37.97  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 27 February 2012, Shrewsbury vs Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              31   64  +31      93.29     5.22    44.20    82.24    97.83    99.99    98.70P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           33   63  +22      81.29     4.92    22.70     3.03    39.06    96.26    51.02P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   60  +17      84.11     5.13    24.13     7.10    61.90    98.49    72.66P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             33   59  +17      81.50     4.97    24.03     2.85    42.48    96.43    58.01P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         30   56  +16      81.61     5.75    21.56     4.21    42.40    94.08    54.10P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              32   56   +9      77.03     5.17    11.69     0.52    12.39    79.84    29.64P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   51  +13      70.08     5.12    13.07     0.01     1.27    33.71     8.67P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            31   48   +8      70.31     5.35    10.59     0.02     1.37    34.70     9.30P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                32   46   -1      65.50     5.22    -0.76     0.00     0.11     8.77     2.14P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           31   45   +8      69.22     5.43    13.48     0.01     0.86    28.90     8.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Rotherham            32   45   +4      67.00     5.20     8.20     0.00     0.25    15.32     4.22P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            32   44  +10      63.18     5.17     9.97     0.00     0.03     4.85     1.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            31   43   -2      61.94     5.31    -4.24     0.00     0.01     2.75     0.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   32   43   -3      62.69     5.15    -2.23     0.00     0.02     3.05     0.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   43   -4      61.80     5.35    -7.00     0.00     0.02     2.49     0.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       32   40  -12      58.03     5.17   -14.03     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P    0.16R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   38  -15      53.10     5.06   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.00R    0.44  
Barnet               31   33  -16      49.67     5.21   -22.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.56R    2.86  
Bradford             30   32   -5      50.72     5.44    -9.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.61R    1.67  
Macclesfield         32   31  -11      47.10     4.99   -15.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   16.10R    5.90  
Plymouth             32   28  -17      46.52     5.20   -18.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.32R    8.05  
Hereford             32   28  -20      42.78     4.91   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.85R   25.31  
Northampton          31   27  -23      43.39     5.23   -30.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.11R   24.78  
Dag_&_Red            31   25  -26      42.39     5.26   -31.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.27R   30.96  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Barrow vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     34   79  +43      99.29     4.71    48.86    58.52   100.00    70.12P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            33   74  +39      97.57     4.73    47.81    39.81    99.99    58.10P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   62  +34      87.73     4.60    46.98     1.65    97.57    40.64P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          34   58   -3      74.03     4.70    -4.06     0.00    15.73     0.93P    0.00     0.00  
York               33   57  +29      79.87     4.80    36.99     0.01    67.03    13.28P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      34   57  +14      75.88     4.72    17.62     0.00    29.26     4.19P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          33   55  +16      75.17     4.92    19.58     0.00    25.26     3.38P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.53     5.10    24.25     0.01    37.60     6.00P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   54   +5      73.44     4.92     7.39     0.00    13.89     1.31P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             34   52   +5      67.56     4.59     3.55     0.00     1.31     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       34   49  +14      65.22     4.58    13.74     0.00     0.43     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.13     5.33    15.91     0.00    11.91     1.88P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     34   46   -4      59.56     4.65    -9.22     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           33   41  -11      55.66     4.77   -16.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   40   -7      54.83     4.62   -10.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Newport_County     33   33   -8      50.24     4.85    -8.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.70R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       34   33  -14      50.51     4.69   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.73R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        33   32  -15      47.05     4.88   -19.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.44R    0.06  
Stockport          35   32  -18      48.11     4.59   -16.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.73R    0.05  
Darlington         34   28  -14      44.69     4.61   -13.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.47R    0.25  
Alfreton_Town      33   28  -31      40.01     4.59   -41.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.05R    3.92  
Kettering          34   28  -42      40.27     4.46   -49.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.01R    2.79  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   27  -26      39.82     4.59   -35.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.50R    3.10  
Bath_City          34   18  -37      28.67     4.28   -46.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.29R   89.81  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10