Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 27 February 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 26 February 2012, Arsenal vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        26   63  +48      88.26     4.31    62.88    55.39    98.95    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   61  +37      87.75     4.04    54.71    44.46    98.39    99.92   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   53  +21      74.23     4.59    28.55     0.14     2.40    66.18    89.11    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   46  +16      68.20     4.60    25.69     0.00     0.12    13.69    46.45    95.69     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   46  +16      69.09     4.36    26.98     0.00     0.14    19.03    55.46    97.48     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       26   43   +0      59.21     4.65    -0.78     0.00     0.00     0.21     2.16    33.91     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.85     4.84    13.34     0.00     0.00     1.02     6.77    66.48     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         26   35   -5      48.28     4.53   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.72     0.04R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   33   +4      48.22     4.52     1.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.04R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.57     4.86    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     3.68     0.00R    0.00  
Fulham          26   33   -4      48.92     4.45    -5.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.03R    0.00  
Stoke           26   33  -12      47.00     4.45   -15.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.17R    0.00  
West_Brom       26   32   -2      46.02     4.45    -6.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.25R    0.00  
Swansea         26   30   -6      43.45     4.45   -10.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.20R    0.03  
Aston_Villa     26   29   -5      43.59     4.54    -8.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.99R    0.04  
Wolverhampton   26   22  -21      33.97     4.41   -28.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.58R   11.30  
QPR             26   21  -18      30.83     4.06   -29.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.07R   27.50  
Blackburn       26   21  -22      33.91     4.48   -28.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.99R   11.72  
Bolton          26   20  -25      33.75     4.54   -30.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.93R   12.83  
Wigan           26   20  -27      30.49     4.15   -37.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.72R   36.57  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Birmingham vs Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      33   62  +29      84.72     4.91    36.53    40.95    70.12    98.39    78.28P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   61  +19      84.94     5.16    26.09    39.38    67.61    97.70    75.98P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          32   57  +14      78.84     5.09    17.86     7.14    20.07    82.42    36.11P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        33   55  +13      76.55     5.05    18.72     2.95    10.43    70.46    24.95P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   54  +21      78.09     5.08    28.02     6.03    18.23    80.90    38.99P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.10     5.11    16.84     2.48     8.69    66.38    22.80P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         33   53   +6      70.22     4.87     5.26     0.13     0.66    20.08     3.99P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    32   53   +4      72.48     5.04     4.65     0.50     2.18    34.11     7.84P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             31   51   +6      71.80     5.17     6.71     0.42     1.77    30.17     7.24P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     33   49   +4      66.82     4.94     3.82     0.01     0.13     7.85     1.52P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          33   47   +5      65.33     4.89     5.61     0.00     0.05     4.49     0.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        32   45   +6      65.41     5.14     7.68     0.00     0.06     5.29     1.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   +3      62.34     4.94     2.29     0.00     0.01     1.25     0.19P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley         33   42   -7      56.38     4.74   -12.42     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.75R    0.01  
Derby            32   42   -9      59.00     5.01   -12.19     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P    0.27R    0.00  
Ipswich          32   40  -10      58.49     5.12   -11.31     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.39R    0.00  
Watford          33   40  -14      55.62     4.85   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.60R    0.05  
Peterborough     32   38   -1      56.22     5.37    -3.09     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    1.58R    0.06  
Millwall         33   34  -11      49.81     4.84   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.25R    1.42  
Nott'm_Forest    32   31  -22      48.41     5.00   -24.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.37R    3.51  
Bristol_City     33   31  -24      45.44     4.64   -28.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.96R    9.02  
Coventry         33   28  -17      42.34     4.58   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.44R   22.56  
Portsmouth       32   26   -1      45.48     4.97    -0.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.46R    8.72  
Doncaster        31   25  -25      39.47     4.88   -34.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.91R   54.65  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 26 February 2012, Sheff_Wed vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        32   72  +36      98.42     5.04    46.94    81.92    95.84   100.00    97.20P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       31   62  +28      90.36     5.27    39.62    12.71    60.44    99.96    74.26P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   60  +14      81.58     4.95    19.71     0.25     4.58    96.89    22.94P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    31   58  +29      85.97     5.32    40.32     3.82    24.69    99.44    51.69P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         32   58  +27      83.93     5.17    37.29     1.29    14.25    98.86    38.37P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        31   49   -4      68.42     5.37    -6.07     0.00     0.01    20.81     2.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage       30   48  +16      72.43     5.64    19.72     0.01     0.18    57.38     9.23P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    32   46   +3      65.16     5.17     2.89     0.00     0.00     7.97     1.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       31   44   +6      65.32     5.36     7.10     0.00     0.00     9.94     1.55P    0.03R    0.00  
Bournemouth     33   44   -1      61.55     4.92    -1.37     0.00     0.00     2.05     0.34P    0.10R    0.00  
Hartlepool      32   41   -3      58.02     5.00    -6.28     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.06P    1.34R    0.02  
Colchester      30   40   -4      60.79     5.58    -5.83     0.00     0.00     2.31     0.28P    0.74R    0.00  
Preston         31   40   -7      60.34     5.54    -7.52     0.00     0.00     1.95     0.29P    0.82R    0.02  
Bury            32   40  -11      56.51     5.12   -15.39     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.03P    3.43R    0.04  
Leyton_Orient   31   39  -10      57.58     5.27   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.05P    2.84R    0.05  
Oldham          29   38   -8      58.98     5.67   -11.42     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.17P    1.86R    0.06  
Tranmere        32   34   -7      51.94     5.01    -8.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    15.74R    0.84  
Yeovil          32   33  -14      49.13     4.97   -19.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.66R    3.77  
Exeter          33   33  -19      47.83     4.75   -23.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.51R    5.88  
Walsall         32   32   -6      48.59     4.94    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.49R    3.75  
Scunthorpe      31   32   -7      51.14     5.41    -9.51     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   21.51R    2.06  
Wycombe         33   29  -19      42.92     4.84   -25.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.17R   29.84  
Rochdale        32   29  -22      45.40     5.00   -26.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.12R   15.58  
Chesterfield    32   27  -17      41.88     4.96   -24.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.64R   38.08  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Aldershot vs Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              31   64  +31      93.30     5.23    44.21    82.32    98.01   100.00    98.75P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           33   63  +22      81.31     4.89    22.73     3.02    40.08    96.35    51.90P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             33   59  +17      81.45     4.93    24.00     2.90    43.11    96.62    58.41P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   57  +16      82.57     5.36    23.24     4.77    50.76    96.54    64.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   56  +17      82.72     5.95    22.16     6.38    51.07    95.43    61.20P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              32   56   +9      77.08     5.17    11.75     0.55    12.84    80.17    29.76P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   51  +13      70.09     5.10    13.08     0.01     1.32    33.17     8.43P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            31   48   +8      70.41     5.34    10.73     0.02     1.42    35.39     9.62P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                32   46   -1      65.47     5.19    -0.78     0.00     0.11     8.64     2.11P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           31   45   +8      69.25     5.41    13.54     0.02     0.92    29.05     8.61P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            32   45   +4      67.07     5.24     8.31     0.00     0.28    15.53     4.10P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            32   44  +10      63.16     5.16     9.96     0.00     0.02     4.73     1.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            31   43   -2      61.92     5.24    -4.26     0.00     0.02     2.51     0.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   32   43   -3      62.66     5.18    -2.28     0.00     0.01     3.02     0.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   43   -4      61.80     5.36    -7.02     0.00     0.02     2.44     0.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       32   40  -12      58.01     5.18   -14.01     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.08P    0.15R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   38  -15      53.10     5.04   -21.79     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.99R    0.43  
Barnet               31   33  -16      49.58     5.21   -22.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.29R    3.02  
Bradford             30   32   -5      50.68     5.43    -9.70     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.73R    1.72  
Macclesfield         32   31  -11      47.21     4.95   -15.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.48R    5.60  
Plymouth             32   28  -17      46.41     5.19   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.69R    8.39  
Hereford             32   28  -20      42.83     4.92   -26.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.42R   25.10  
Northampton          31   27  -23      43.44     5.21   -30.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.15R   24.70  
Dag_&_Red            31   25  -26      42.46     5.30   -31.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.08R   31.03  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Barrow vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     34   79  +43      99.22     4.73    48.76    58.32   100.00    69.94P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            33   74  +39      97.57     4.75    47.79    40.04    99.99    58.75P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   62  +34      87.70     4.58    46.92     1.61    97.67    40.36P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          34   58   -3      74.04     4.70    -4.01     0.00    15.68     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
York               33   57  +29      79.89     4.80    36.97     0.02    67.08    13.34P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      34   57  +14      75.76     4.72    17.44     0.00    28.34     3.80P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          33   55  +16      75.12     4.98    19.47     0.00    25.42     3.60P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.61     5.12    24.41     0.01    38.55     6.04P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   54   +5      73.40     4.92     7.34     0.00    13.73     1.31P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             34   52   +5      67.63     4.62     3.64     0.00     1.43     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       34   49  +14      65.25     4.59    13.78     0.00     0.44     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.10     5.37    15.90     0.00    11.64     1.71P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     34   46   -4      59.62     4.62    -9.15     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           33   41  -11      55.70     4.76   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   40   -7      54.75     4.62   -10.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09R    0.00  
Newport_County     33   33   -8      50.22     4.84    -8.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.66R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       34   33  -14      50.55     4.71   -12.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.81R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        33   32  -15      47.03     4.92   -19.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.45R    0.07  
Stockport          35   32  -18      48.12     4.58   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.73R    0.06  
Darlington         34   28  -14      44.75     4.60   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.22R    0.26  
Alfreton_Town      33   28  -31      40.04     4.59   -41.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.00R    3.89  
Kettering          34   28  -42      40.29     4.48   -49.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.12R    2.71  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   27  -26      39.78     4.59   -35.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.61R    3.07  
Bath_City          34   18  -37      28.69     4.29   -46.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.28R   89.93  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10