Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 26 February 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Chelsea vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        26   63  +48      88.26     4.30    62.87    59.24    98.19    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         25   58  +36      87.04     4.25    55.37    40.30    96.18    99.87    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       25   53  +24      75.60     4.78    31.51     0.46     5.40    75.53    93.45    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   46  +16      69.11     4.41    27.04     0.00     0.16    15.70    60.59    97.61     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   43  +13      66.72     4.83    22.76     0.00     0.08     7.99    35.70    92.38     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       26   43   +0      59.22     4.62    -0.75     0.00     0.00     0.17     2.45    36.05     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.75     4.90    13.17     0.00     0.00     0.80     7.76    66.51     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   35   -4      48.84     4.70   -11.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.28     0.05R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   33   +4      48.16     4.53     1.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.05R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.53     4.83    -0.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.92     0.01R    0.00  
Fulham          26   33   -4      48.91     4.46    -5.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.02R    0.00  
West_Brom       26   32   -2      45.96     4.45    -7.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.23R    0.00  
Swansea         25   30   -4      44.85     4.66    -8.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.68R    0.03  
Stoke           25   30  -14      45.27     4.69   -18.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.77R    0.03  
Aston_Villa     26   29   -5      43.68     4.52    -8.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.87R    0.01  
Wolverhampton   26   22  -21      33.93     4.41   -28.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.90R   11.28  
QPR             26   21  -18      30.85     4.07   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.71R   27.44  
Blackburn       26   21  -22      33.80     4.44   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.78R   12.22  
Bolton          26   20  -25      33.72     4.55   -30.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.93R   12.79  
Wigan           26   20  -27      30.55     4.16   -37.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.00R   36.18  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Birmingham vs Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      33   62  +29      84.81     4.89    36.65    41.70    71.26    98.55    79.01P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   61  +19      84.93     5.17    26.05    38.78    67.19    97.70    75.79P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          32   57  +14      78.79     5.08    17.78     7.03    19.53    82.30    35.57P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        33   55  +13      76.49     5.06    18.60     2.81    10.08    70.06    24.49P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   54  +21      78.14     5.07    28.10     6.14    18.48    81.24    39.75P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.03     5.09    16.74     2.45     8.52    66.11    22.31P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         33   53   +6      70.18     4.88     5.19     0.10     0.63    19.96     3.93P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    32   53   +4      72.44     5.03     4.57     0.51     2.22    33.60     7.79P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             31   51   +6      71.88     5.18     6.80     0.44     1.84    30.76     7.44P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     33   49   +4      66.88     4.92     3.93     0.02     0.13     7.86     1.51P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          33   47   +5      65.32     4.92     5.62     0.00     0.04     4.45     0.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester        32   45   +6      65.46     5.14     7.75     0.02     0.09     5.58     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   44   +3      62.33     4.94     2.28     0.00     0.01     1.26     0.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley         33   42   -7      56.52     4.76   -12.19     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.68R    0.00  
Derby            32   42   -9      59.05     5.04   -12.07     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.02P    0.32R    0.00  
Ipswich          32   40  -10      58.44     5.17   -11.40     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.43R    0.01  
Watford          33   40  -14      55.59     4.84   -17.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.58R    0.02  
Peterborough     32   38   -1      56.13     5.33    -3.21     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    1.55R    0.05  
Millwall         33   34  -11      49.83     4.83   -13.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.15R    1.32  
Nott'm_Forest    32   31  -22      48.44     4.96   -24.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.66R    3.37  
Bristol_City     33   31  -24      45.37     4.69   -29.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.93R    9.40  
Coventry         33   28  -17      42.31     4.55   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.46R   22.59  
Portsmouth       32   26   -1      45.50     4.97    -0.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.99R    8.63  
Doncaster        31   25  -25      39.44     4.85   -34.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.24R   54.59  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Bournemouth vs MK_Dons; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        32   72  +36      98.32     5.03    46.79    75.78    95.23   100.00    96.71P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   62  +29      92.08     5.54    41.24    19.75    70.27    99.97    80.70P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    31   58  +29      85.96     5.32    40.26     3.21    20.55    99.51    49.98P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         32   58  +27      83.89     5.12    37.26     1.15    11.50    99.05    37.27P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   57  +13      79.58     5.20    18.13     0.10     2.28    93.07    19.51P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        31   49   -4      68.44     5.40    -6.07     0.00     0.01    21.90     2.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage       30   48  +16      72.34     5.64    19.54     0.00     0.15    57.51     9.13P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County    32   46   +3      65.13     5.15     2.87     0.00     0.00     8.55     1.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       31   44   +6      65.34     5.34     7.16     0.00     0.00    10.87     1.70P    0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth     33   44   -1      61.55     4.92    -1.39     0.00     0.00     2.24     0.36P    0.13R    0.00  
Hartlepool      32   41   -3      58.04     5.03    -6.26     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.06P    1.30R    0.01  
Colchester      30   40   -4      60.86     5.61    -5.75     0.00     0.00     2.69     0.40P    0.69R    0.01  
Preston         31   40   -7      60.47     5.53    -7.35     0.00     0.00     2.17     0.35P    0.75R    0.01  
Bury            32   40  -11      56.50     5.11   -15.37     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.03P    3.48R    0.05  
Leyton_Orient   31   39  -10      57.61     5.23   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.05P    2.78R    0.06  
Oldham          29   38   -8      58.89     5.68   -11.56     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.18P    2.01R    0.03  
Tranmere        32   34   -7      51.94     5.07    -8.69     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   16.32R    0.92  
Yeovil          32   33  -14      49.20     4.96   -18.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.83R    3.62  
Exeter          33   33  -19      47.81     4.77   -23.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.52R    6.00  
Walsall         32   32   -6      48.63     4.97    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.21R    3.89  
Scunthorpe      31   32   -7      51.20     5.40    -9.35     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   21.30R    1.88  
Wycombe         33   29  -19      43.02     4.83   -25.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.83R   28.47  
Rochdale        32   29  -22      45.37     5.00   -26.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.71R   16.05  
Chesterfield    32   27  -17      41.80     4.94   -24.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.12R   38.99  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Aldershot vs Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              31   64  +31      93.30     5.20    44.18    81.99    97.91    99.99    98.68P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           33   63  +22      81.26     4.90    22.65     2.91    39.34    96.28    51.10P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             33   59  +17      81.54     4.95    24.11     2.72    43.27    96.57    58.89P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   57  +16      82.57     5.41    23.25     5.01    50.12    96.61    64.08P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   56  +17      82.93     5.97    22.50     6.75    52.23    95.80    62.06P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              32   56   +9      77.06     5.20    11.73     0.57    12.79    80.15    29.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   51  +13      70.20     5.12    13.23     0.01     1.43    34.00     8.55P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            31   48   +8      70.33     5.36    10.63     0.03     1.47    34.59     9.17P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                32   46   -1      65.46     5.20    -0.80     0.00     0.11     8.64     2.13P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           31   45   +8      69.21     5.47    13.54     0.01     1.01    29.07     8.69P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            32   45   +4      66.99     5.20     8.19     0.00     0.25    15.14     4.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            32   44  +10      63.16     5.15     9.93     0.00     0.03     4.89     1.11P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            31   43   -2      61.94     5.30    -4.26     0.00     0.02     2.58     0.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   32   43   -3      62.63     5.16    -2.29     0.00     0.01     2.96     0.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   43   -4      61.74     5.31    -7.07     0.00     0.01     2.28     0.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       32   40  -12      58.11     5.20   -13.85     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.07P    0.13R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   38  -15      53.05     5.04   -21.90     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    2.09R    0.47  
Barnet               31   33  -16      49.64     5.20   -22.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    8.82R    2.94  
Bradford             30   32   -5      50.71     5.48    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     5.65R    1.68  
Macclesfield         32   31  -11      47.15     4.97   -15.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.71R    5.59  
Plymouth             32   28  -17      46.43     5.20   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.53R    8.39  
Hereford             32   28  -20      42.80     4.90   -26.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.24R   25.10  
Northampton          31   27  -23      43.36     5.23   -30.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.60R   24.84  
Dag_&_Red            31   25  -26      42.38     5.26   -31.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.21R   30.96  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 25 February 2012, Barrow vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     34   79  +43      99.26     4.72    48.82    58.43   100.00    69.74P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            33   74  +39      97.55     4.73    47.75    39.94    99.99    58.24P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   62  +34      87.72     4.61    46.93     1.61    97.55    40.69P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          34   58   -3      74.08     4.72    -3.97     0.00    15.84     0.92P    0.00     0.00  
York               33   57  +29      79.85     4.81    36.93     0.01    66.57    13.33P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      34   57  +14      75.90     4.73    17.63     0.00    29.29     4.23P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          33   55  +16      75.17     4.94    19.55     0.00    25.05     3.57P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.66     5.14    24.50     0.01    38.39     6.13P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   54   +5      73.48     4.94     7.45     0.00    14.10     1.33P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             34   52   +5      67.56     4.64     3.56     0.00     1.31     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       34   49  +14      65.20     4.55    13.70     0.00     0.41     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.09     5.35    15.88     0.00    11.49     1.70P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     34   46   -4      59.62     4.64    -9.11     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           33   41  -11      55.67     4.82   -16.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   40   -7      54.79     4.59   -10.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Newport_County     33   33   -8      50.22     4.84    -8.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.62R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       34   33  -14      50.55     4.74   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.82R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        33   32  -15      46.94     4.92   -19.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.60R    0.08  
Stockport          35   32  -18      48.07     4.59   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.86R    0.04  
Darlington         34   28  -14      44.69     4.61   -13.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.73R    0.24  
Alfreton_Town      33   28  -31      40.05     4.61   -41.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.37R    3.99  
Kettering          34   28  -42      40.27     4.46   -49.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.72R    2.70  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   27  -26      39.76     4.62   -35.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.85R    3.07  
Bath_City          34   18  -37      28.67     4.26   -46.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.31R   89.86  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10