Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 25 February 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 February 2012, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        25   60  +45      87.85     4.44    62.33    55.53    97.64    99.93   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         25   58  +36      87.19     4.23    55.72    43.94    96.27    99.90    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       25   53  +24      75.60     4.80    31.46     0.52     5.81    77.45    93.90    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   43  +13      66.75     4.85    22.77     0.00     0.08     8.34    38.10    90.93     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   43  +13      68.38     4.59    25.55     0.00     0.18    13.15    54.63    95.50     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       25   42   +0      60.40     4.90     0.56     0.00     0.00     0.42     4.80    43.72     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.80     4.88    13.28     0.00     0.00     0.80     8.49    62.44     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   35   -4      48.72     4.69   -11.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.04     0.07R    0.00  
Sunderland      25   33   +8      49.94     4.77     6.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.05     0.04R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.61     4.84     0.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     3.56     0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         25   30   -4      44.84     4.66    -8.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.95R    0.04  
Fulham          25   30   -5      47.28     4.69    -6.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.23R    0.01  
Stoke           25   30  -14      45.27     4.68   -18.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.95R    0.02  
West_Brom       25   29   -6      43.87     4.68   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.56R    0.05  
Aston_Villa     25   28   -5      44.34     4.82    -7.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     1.27R    0.06  
QPR             25   21  -17      32.06     4.32   -28.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.83R   21.14  
Blackburn       25   21  -19      34.25     4.59   -28.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.72R   12.09  
Wolverhampton   25   21  -21      33.45     4.59   -30.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.32R   16.12  
Bolton          25   20  -22      34.25     4.67   -28.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.29R   11.96  
Wigan           25   19  -27      30.75     4.42   -37.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.77R   38.51  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 23 February 2012, Derby vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         31   60  +19      85.94     5.38    27.01    49.33    73.04    98.31    80.44P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      32   59  +26      83.04     5.13    33.42    26.89    56.42    96.14    67.25P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   54  +22      80.36     5.25    30.33    13.47    33.74    89.71    52.73P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   54  +12      76.94     5.32    15.52     4.16    12.98    70.54    27.80P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.03     5.08    16.71     2.49     8.80    66.28    22.92P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    31   53   +6      74.15     5.23     7.08     1.34     5.13    48.00    13.06P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        32   52  +11      75.00     5.29    16.82     1.73     6.98    58.99    19.85P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             31   51   +6      71.90     5.16     6.81     0.46     1.96    31.35     7.80P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         32   50   +3      68.45     5.12     2.07     0.06     0.37    12.91     2.44P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     32   48   +4      67.16     5.16     3.83     0.03     0.24     9.76     1.97P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          32   47   +7      67.35     5.11     8.54     0.03     0.22    10.21     2.15P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester        32   45   +6      65.41     5.12     7.68     0.01     0.09     5.54     1.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   +3      62.05     5.08     1.25     0.00     0.01     1.20     0.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley         32   42   -6      57.89     4.96   -11.18     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.27R    0.00  
Derby            32   42   -9      58.96     5.00   -12.24     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.01P    0.17R    0.00  
Ipswich          31   40   -7      59.83     5.38    -8.32     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.07P    0.20R    0.00  
Watford          32   40  -11      57.01     5.09   -14.74     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.66R    0.01  
Peterborough     31   37   -1      56.82     5.55    -2.77     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    1.14R    0.04  
Millwall         32   31  -13      47.55     4.98   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.12R    3.45  
Bristol_City     32   31  -22      46.66     4.90   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.79R    5.35  
Nott'm_Forest    31   28  -23      45.78     5.08   -26.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.68R    7.85  
Portsmouth       31   25   -1      46.16     5.20     0.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.96R    6.14  
Coventry         32   25  -18      40.71     4.80   -22.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.61R   31.71  
Doncaster        30   24  -25      39.79     5.09   -34.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.38R   45.44  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 22 February 2012, Notts_County vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        31   69  +34      97.01     5.25    45.19    69.97    93.58   100.00    95.62P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   62  +29      92.13     5.51    41.29    25.01    74.93    99.98    83.66P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   57  +13      79.66     5.23    18.22     0.21     3.00    92.76    20.08P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    30   55  +27      85.04     5.51    39.43     3.56    19.03    98.96    48.35P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         31   55  +26      82.30     5.39    36.34     1.22     8.97    97.46    34.49P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       29   48  +18      73.57     5.82    21.35     0.04     0.46    65.27    11.27P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        30   46   -5      67.11     5.61    -6.57     0.00     0.01    15.19     1.79P    0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth     32   44   +0      62.85     5.17    -0.53     0.00     0.00     3.87     0.68P    0.10R    0.00  
Brentford       30   43   +6      65.55     5.61     6.85     0.00     0.01    11.04     1.82P    0.04R    0.00  
Notts_County    31   43   +2      63.94     5.39     2.54     0.00     0.00     5.84     0.85P    0.09R    0.00  
Hartlepool      31   41   +2      60.22     5.25    -0.00     0.00     0.00     1.45     0.18P    0.61R    0.00  
Colchester      29   39   -4      61.60     5.82    -5.24     0.00     0.00     3.32     0.48P    0.72R    0.01  
Preston         30   39   -7      61.29     5.75    -6.70     0.00     0.00     3.12     0.52P    0.81R    0.01  
Bury            31   39  -11      56.96     5.37   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.03P    3.87R    0.07  
Leyton_Orient   30   38  -10      58.04     5.49   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.07P    2.98R    0.05  
Oldham          28   35   -9      57.27     5.88   -12.57     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.10P    4.62R    0.11  
Tranmere        31   34   -6      53.20     5.28    -7.80     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00    12.74R    0.40  
Yeovil          31   33  -13      50.28     5.20   -18.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.05R    2.00  
Exeter          32   33  -17      48.52     4.92   -22.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.85R    4.16  
Walsall         31   31   -6      48.54     5.16   -10.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.40R    3.33  
Scunthorpe      30   31   -7      51.76     5.66    -9.15     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   20.34R    1.61  
Rochdale        31   28  -22      45.41     5.19   -26.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.47R   13.13  
Chesterfield    31   27  -16      42.93     5.19   -23.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.23R   25.40  
Wycombe         32   26  -24      40.33     5.00   -32.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.07R   49.73  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 22 February 2012, Crawley_Town vs Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              30   61  +29      92.23     5.41    43.01    75.26    96.21    99.95    97.67P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           32   60  +20      79.79     5.16    20.84     2.51    27.47    91.71    40.56P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             32   59  +18      83.24     5.16    25.61     7.03    54.95    97.96    67.48P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   57  +16      82.63     5.38    23.33     5.84    49.01    96.29    63.21P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   56  +17      82.63     5.96    22.00     7.59    48.15    95.07    58.50P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              31   56  +11      78.61     5.42    13.97     1.69    19.60    85.24    36.77P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   50  +13      70.97     5.32    13.79     0.04     2.09    39.09    10.46P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            30   45   +7      68.85     5.56     9.82     0.02     0.92    24.96     6.81P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            31   45   +5      69.01     5.44    10.17     0.01     0.84    25.66     7.40P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                31   45   -1      66.58     5.40     0.42     0.00     0.19    12.26     3.07P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   31   43   -1      63.60     5.35    -0.95     0.00     0.03     4.67     1.07P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        30   43   -2      63.09     5.55    -5.12     0.00     0.06     4.16     0.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           30   42   +6      67.35     5.69    11.11     0.01     0.44    18.74     5.36P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            31   41   +9      61.20     5.39     8.43     0.00     0.02     2.67     0.61P    0.02R    0.00  
Aldershot            30   40   -5      60.16     5.47    -7.45     0.00     0.01     1.36     0.28P    0.07R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers       31   37  -13      55.78     5.40   -16.01     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.93R    0.16  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   37  -15      52.64     5.16   -23.17     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.33R    0.80  
Barnet               30   33  -13      51.07     5.40   -19.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     6.49R    2.01  
Bradford             29   31   -5      51.44     5.65    -9.17     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    5.95R    1.84  
Macclesfield         31   30  -11      46.96     5.17   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.52R    7.38  
Plymouth             31   27  -17      47.42     5.45   -17.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.81R    8.01  
Hereford             31   27  -20      42.84     5.15   -27.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.41R   27.77  
Northampton          30   27  -22      44.77     5.47   -29.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.14R   18.88  
Dag_&_Red            30   24  -26      42.52     5.52   -31.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.33R   33.14  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 22 February 2012, York vs Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     33   76  +39      98.46     4.87    46.42    43.12    99.99    58.64P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            32   74  +40      99.47     4.94    49.60    55.51   100.00    69.31P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   62  +34      87.64     4.62    46.78     1.35    97.91    40.61P    0.00     0.00  
York               33   57  +29      79.81     4.81    36.86     0.01    69.56    13.65P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          33   55   -4      72.02     4.94    -5.74     0.00    10.27     0.59P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.67     5.12    24.54     0.01    41.74     6.71P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      33   54  +13      74.77     4.95    17.37     0.00    25.46     3.70P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   54   +5      73.38     4.93     7.35     0.00    15.66     1.49P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          32   52  +15      74.15     5.17    19.54     0.00    22.74     3.12P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             33   51   +5      68.07     4.85     3.72     0.00     2.51     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.13     5.35    15.90     0.00    13.30     1.87P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       33   48  +14      65.49     4.81    13.56     0.00     0.85     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     33   43   -5      58.51     4.90    -9.36     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           32   41  -10      56.59     4.98   -16.04     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   40   -6      56.60     4.90    -8.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Newport_County     33   33   -8      50.23     4.85    -8.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.86R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       33   32  -14      51.49     4.97   -11.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.67R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        32   31  -15      46.79     5.09   -20.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.37R    0.19  
Stockport          34   29  -19      45.81     4.80   -18.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.98R    0.34  
Darlington         34   28  -14      44.67     4.58   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.53R    0.42  
Alfreton_Town      32   28  -27      40.70     4.73   -38.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.91R    4.31  
Kettering          33   28  -41      41.18     4.66   -48.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.30R    3.19  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   27  -26      39.87     4.64   -35.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.65R    4.22  
Bath_City          33   18  -36      29.58     4.50   -46.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.63R   87.31  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10