Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 24 February 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 February 2012, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        25   60  +45      87.85     4.44    62.33    55.88    97.56    99.92    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         25   58  +36      87.12     4.25    55.59    43.56    96.24    99.90    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       25   53  +24      75.61     4.81    31.54     0.56     5.98    77.01    93.71    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   43  +13      66.75     4.88    22.78     0.00     0.10     8.67    37.96    90.95     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   43  +13      68.46     4.56    25.73     0.00     0.12    13.23    55.36    95.69     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       25   42   +0      60.42     4.85     0.56     0.00     0.00     0.44     4.60    43.71     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.80     4.85    13.28     0.00     0.00     0.81     8.28    62.60     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   35   -4      48.77     4.69   -11.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.97     0.06R    0.00  
Sunderland      25   33   +8      49.98     4.79     6.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.09     0.03R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.51     4.85    -0.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     3.26     0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         25   30   -4      44.92     4.70    -8.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.92R    0.02  
Fulham          25   30   -5      47.30     4.70    -6.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.22R    0.00  
Stoke           25   30  -14      45.24     4.68   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.88R    0.03  
West_Brom       25   29   -6      43.91     4.67   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.63R    0.07  
Aston_Villa     25   28   -5      44.20     4.78    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.33R    0.06  
QPR             25   21  -17      32.08     4.32   -28.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.87R   21.15  
Blackburn       25   21  -19      34.27     4.57   -28.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.60R   11.99  
Wolverhampton   25   21  -21      33.46     4.57   -30.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.04R   15.86  
Bolton          25   20  -22      34.25     4.68   -28.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.43R   12.03  
Wigan           25   19  -27      30.71     4.39   -37.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.99R   38.78  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 23 February 2012, Derby vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         31   60  +19      85.96     5.37    27.06    49.50    73.17    98.31    80.51P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      32   59  +26      82.99     5.16    33.36    26.56    56.18    96.00    67.42P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   54  +22      80.33     5.25    30.28    13.47    33.62    89.63    52.62P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   54  +12      76.90     5.32    15.45     4.18    12.64    70.19    26.92P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.03     5.10    16.73     2.46     8.95    65.94    22.70P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    31   53   +6      74.23     5.25     7.18     1.32     5.30    48.20    13.33P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        32   52  +11      75.06     5.31    16.86     1.89     7.22    59.09    19.92P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             31   51   +6      71.98     5.17     6.93     0.46     2.01    31.88     8.06P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         32   50   +3      68.45     5.10     2.10     0.06     0.36    12.95     2.60P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     32   48   +4      67.11     5.14     3.71     0.04     0.25     9.43     2.01P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          32   47   +7      67.40     5.12     8.66     0.04     0.22    10.44     2.29P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        32   45   +6      65.36     5.15     7.62     0.01     0.05     5.49     1.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   +3      62.08     5.12     1.32     0.00     0.01     1.31     0.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley         32   42   -6      57.79     4.97   -11.38     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.36R    0.00  
Derby            32   42   -9      58.95     4.98   -12.26     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.02P    0.21R    0.01  
Ipswich          31   40   -7      59.89     5.36    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.06P    0.23R    0.00  
Watford          32   40  -11      57.00     5.11   -14.75     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.69R    0.01  
Peterborough     31   37   -1      56.83     5.61    -2.76     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    1.18R    0.05  
Millwall         32   31  -13      47.56     4.97   -16.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.44R    3.45  
Bristol_City     32   31  -22      46.52     4.87   -27.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.79R    5.43  
Nott'm_Forest    31   28  -23      45.89     5.11   -26.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.93R    7.69  
Portsmouth       31   25   -1      46.21     5.20     0.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.54R    6.14  
Coventry         32   25  -18      40.66     4.79   -22.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.97R   31.69  
Doncaster        30   24  -25      39.76     5.09   -34.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.65R   45.54  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 22 February 2012, Notts_County vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        31   69  +34      97.05     5.24    45.28    69.87    93.76   100.00    95.82P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   62  +29      92.15     5.52    41.34    25.28    75.02    99.96    83.80P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   57  +13      79.74     5.23    18.35     0.22     2.99    93.01    20.60P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    30   55  +27      84.97     5.52    39.34     3.53    18.90    98.97    47.95P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         31   55  +26      82.27     5.34    36.32     1.05     8.82    97.49    34.16P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       29   48  +18      73.56     5.84    21.35     0.04     0.48    64.97    11.23P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        30   46   -5      67.07     5.58    -6.61     0.00     0.01    15.05     1.82P    0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth     32   44   +0      62.81     5.14    -0.59     0.00     0.00     3.67     0.59P    0.09R    0.00  
Brentford       30   43   +6      65.57     5.60     6.90     0.00     0.01    11.35     1.83P    0.04R    0.00  
Notts_County    31   43   +2      63.96     5.40     2.52     0.00     0.00     5.94     0.79P    0.11R    0.00  
Hartlepool      31   41   +2      60.21     5.29    -0.02     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.22P    0.62R    0.00  
Colchester      29   39   -4      61.54     5.78    -5.32     0.00     0.00     3.24     0.48P    0.70R    0.01  
Preston         30   39   -7      61.21     5.76    -6.84     0.00     0.00     2.90     0.51P    0.86R    0.01  
Bury            31   39  -11      57.01     5.37   -15.21     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.04P    3.65R    0.05  
Leyton_Orient   30   38  -10      58.05     5.45   -13.04     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.07P    3.01R    0.04  
Oldham          28   35   -9      57.32     5.92   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.07P    4.69R    0.12  
Tranmere        31   34   -6      53.27     5.26    -7.75     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.00P   12.24R    0.40  
Yeovil          31   33  -13      50.20     5.24   -18.48     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   30.57R    2.11  
Exeter          32   33  -17      48.52     4.92   -22.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.44R    3.99  
Walsall         31   31   -6      48.52     5.17   -10.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.78R    3.50  
Scunthorpe      30   31   -7      51.77     5.68    -9.15     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   20.57R    1.54  
Rochdale        31   28  -22      45.37     5.25   -26.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.75R   13.73  
Chesterfield    31   27  -16      42.99     5.20   -23.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.77R   25.17  
Wycombe         32   26  -24      40.37     4.96   -32.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.09R   49.31  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 22 February 2012, Crawley_Town vs Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              30   61  +29      92.22     5.43    43.01    75.27    96.00    99.96    97.51P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           32   60  +20      79.83     5.13    20.89     2.47    27.82    91.96    40.90P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             32   59  +18      83.15     5.15    25.47     6.93    54.67    97.73    66.95P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   57  +16      82.67     5.37    23.41     6.08    49.04    96.41    63.35P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   56  +17      82.69     5.95    22.04     7.53    48.69    95.09    59.17P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              31   56  +11      78.56     5.41    13.90     1.63    19.44    85.21    36.53P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   50  +13      70.91     5.30    13.73     0.05     1.88    38.89    10.31P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            30   45   +7      68.81     5.60     9.78     0.02     0.92    25.02     6.82P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            31   45   +5      69.00     5.43    10.16     0.01     0.76    26.01     7.32P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                31   45   -1      66.61     5.42     0.44     0.00     0.24    12.45     3.10P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   31   43   -1      63.61     5.31    -0.93     0.00     0.04     4.57     1.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        30   43   -2      63.06     5.57    -5.21     0.00     0.05     4.19     0.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           30   42   +6      67.33     5.66    11.06     0.01     0.45    18.34     5.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            31   41   +9      61.28     5.38     8.52     0.00     0.01     2.72     0.63P    0.02R    0.00  
Aldershot            30   40   -5      60.17     5.42    -7.39     0.00     0.01     1.21     0.22P    0.05R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers       31   37  -13      55.88     5.41   -15.89     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.90R    0.18  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   37  -15      52.66     5.20   -23.12     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.40R    0.90  
Barnet               30   33  -13      51.05     5.44   -19.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.72R    2.02  
Bradford             29   31   -5      51.48     5.64    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    5.64R    1.76  
Macclesfield         31   30  -11      47.02     5.16   -16.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.99R    6.97  
Plymouth             31   27  -17      47.32     5.43   -17.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.19R    7.88  
Hereford             31   27  -20      42.86     5.14   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.35R   27.55  
Northampton          30   27  -22      44.70     5.46   -29.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.51R   19.57  
Dag_&_Red            30   24  -26      42.49     5.49   -31.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.21R   33.15  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 22 February 2012, York vs Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     33   76  +39      98.53     4.88    46.52    43.56    99.99    58.86P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            32   74  +40      99.51     4.97    49.64    55.23   100.00    69.19P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   62  +34      87.65     4.61    46.84     1.19    97.94    40.25P    0.00     0.00  
York               33   57  +29      79.87     4.82    36.96     0.01    69.88    13.78P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          33   55   -4      72.03     4.95    -5.68     0.00    10.25     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.63     5.10    24.42     0.00    41.62     6.68P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      33   54  +13      74.74     4.98    17.35     0.00    25.54     3.87P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   54   +5      73.46     4.93     7.42     0.00    16.05     1.57P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          32   52  +15      74.06     5.18    19.38     0.00    22.00     2.99P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             33   51   +5      68.04     4.87     3.69     0.00     2.43     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.08     5.39    15.85     0.00    13.37     1.95P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       33   48  +14      65.44     4.81    13.48     0.00     0.92     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     33   43   -5      58.51     4.90    -9.36     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           32   41  -10      56.54     4.97   -16.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   40   -6      56.60     4.89    -8.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Newport_County     33   33   -8      50.21     4.86    -8.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.85R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       33   32  -14      51.43     4.96   -11.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.60R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        32   31  -15      46.74     5.11   -20.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.76R    0.21  
Stockport          34   29  -19      45.95     4.76   -18.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.99R    0.36  
Darlington         34   28  -14      44.69     4.58   -13.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.26R    0.48  
Alfreton_Town      32   28  -27      40.68     4.75   -38.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.51R    4.47  
Kettering          33   28  -41      41.16     4.66   -48.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.62R    3.10  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   27  -26      39.86     4.59   -35.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.76R    4.13  
Bath_City          33   18  -36      29.67     4.52   -46.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.56R   87.22  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10