Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 23 February 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 February 2012, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        25   60  +45      87.83     4.46    62.32    55.81    97.55    99.91   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         25   58  +36      87.10     4.26    55.55    43.62    96.24    99.88    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       25   53  +24      75.67     4.80    31.64     0.56     5.95    77.50    93.97    99.88     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   43  +13      66.73     4.87    22.76     0.01     0.09     8.31    38.19    90.67     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   43  +13      68.40     4.58    25.63     0.00     0.17    13.15    54.63    95.58     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       25   42   +0      60.43     4.86     0.62     0.00     0.00     0.42     4.73    43.67     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.81     4.85    13.29     0.00     0.00     0.82     8.38    62.84     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   35   -4      48.76     4.68   -11.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.90     0.06R    0.00  
Sunderland      25   33   +8      49.98     4.80     6.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.15     0.03R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.52     4.87    -0.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     3.48     0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         25   30   -4      44.81     4.66    -8.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.88R    0.03  
Fulham          25   30   -5      47.29     4.70    -6.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.21R    0.00  
Stoke           25   30  -14      45.28     4.69   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.94R    0.03  
West_Brom       25   29   -6      43.80     4.71   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.76R    0.08  
Aston_Villa     25   28   -5      44.37     4.81    -7.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     1.19R    0.04  
QPR             25   21  -17      32.06     4.31   -28.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.09R   21.15  
Blackburn       25   21  -19      34.28     4.60   -28.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.12R   11.88  
Wolverhampton   25   21  -21      33.51     4.60   -30.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.51R   15.89  
Bolton          25   20  -22      34.26     4.68   -28.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.10R   11.99  
Wigan           25   19  -27      30.69     4.41   -38.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.11R   38.90  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 22 February 2012, Hull vs Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         31   60  +19      85.96     5.42    27.06    49.51    72.93    98.30    80.21P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      32   59  +26      82.98     5.15    33.34    26.36    55.86    96.08    66.87P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   54  +22      80.44     5.22    30.41    13.87    34.57    90.19    53.70P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   54  +12      76.99     5.29    15.58     4.07    13.01    71.16    28.03P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.08     5.08    16.80     2.42     8.81    66.81    23.03P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    31   53   +6      74.17     5.23     7.12     1.35     5.01    48.21    12.84P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        32   52  +11      74.97     5.32    16.74     1.85     6.97    58.98    19.75P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             31   51   +6      71.81     5.18     6.73     0.42     1.94    31.08     7.61P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         32   50   +3      68.42     5.08     2.02     0.06     0.40    12.92     2.48P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     32   48   +4      67.18     5.15     3.82     0.04     0.24     9.86     2.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          32   47   +7      67.39     5.09     8.63     0.03     0.22    10.26     2.23P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   +3      62.05     5.08     1.27     0.00     0.01     1.30     0.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        31   42   +5      63.62     5.35     6.42     0.01     0.03     3.27     0.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Barnsley         32   42   -6      57.77     4.97   -11.38     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.33R    0.00  
Derby            31   42   -8      60.42     5.23   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.09P    0.13R    0.00  
Ipswich          31   40   -7      59.91     5.36    -8.21     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.09P    0.17R    0.01  
Watford          32   40  -11      57.00     5.08   -14.76     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.67R    0.01  
Peterborough     31   37   -1      56.89     5.58    -2.62     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    1.15R    0.05  
Millwall         32   31  -13      47.48     4.98   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.15R    3.70  
Bristol_City     32   31  -22      46.57     4.87   -27.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.57R    5.18  
Nott'm_Forest    31   28  -23      45.88     5.12   -26.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.39R    7.63  
Portsmouth       31   25   -1      46.21     5.19     0.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.69R    6.24  
Coventry         32   25  -18      40.68     4.81   -22.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.56R   31.43  
Doncaster        30   24  -25      39.78     5.11   -34.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.17R   45.75  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 22 February 2012, Notts_County vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        31   69  +34      97.06     5.24    45.29    70.17    93.88   100.00    95.82P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   62  +29      92.14     5.51    41.34    24.99    74.83    99.97    83.72P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   57  +13      79.66     5.21    18.20     0.23     2.82    92.88    20.37P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    30   55  +27      85.01     5.47    39.39     3.49    18.85    99.01    47.82P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         31   55  +26      82.33     5.38    36.42     1.09     9.14    97.45    34.40P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       29   48  +18      73.53     5.78    21.33     0.03     0.46    64.89    11.25P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        30   46   -5      67.06     5.62    -6.61     0.00     0.00    15.19     1.85P    0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth     32   44   +0      62.80     5.15    -0.56     0.00     0.00     3.71     0.67P    0.10R    0.00  
Brentford       30   43   +6      65.61     5.62     6.96     0.00     0.01    11.44     1.89P    0.04R    0.00  
Notts_County    31   43   +2      63.93     5.39     2.51     0.00     0.00     5.81     0.78P    0.09R    0.00  
Hartlepool      31   41   +2      60.30     5.26     0.13     0.00     0.00     1.57     0.23P    0.60R    0.01  
Colchester      29   39   -4      61.64     5.78    -5.17     0.00     0.00     3.30     0.46P    0.70R    0.01  
Preston         30   39   -7      61.25     5.74    -6.75     0.00     0.00     2.95     0.50P    0.82R    0.01  
Bury            31   39  -11      56.86     5.36   -15.41     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.05P    3.87R    0.06  
Leyton_Orient   30   38  -10      57.95     5.45   -13.19     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.08P    3.13R    0.04  
Oldham          28   35   -9      57.27     5.91   -12.62     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.09P    4.87R    0.14  
Tranmere        31   34   -6      53.25     5.22    -7.77     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   12.28R    0.39  
Yeovil          31   33  -13      50.27     5.20   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    29.90R    1.95  
Exeter          32   33  -17      48.49     4.92   -22.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.10R    4.02  
Walsall         31   31   -6      48.56     5.17   -10.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.30R    3.50  
Scunthorpe      30   31   -7      51.67     5.63    -9.30     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   21.04R    1.55  
Rochdale        31   28  -22      45.45     5.23   -26.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.16R   13.58  
Chesterfield    31   27  -16      42.95     5.16   -23.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.15R   25.34  
Wycombe         32   26  -24      40.43     4.98   -32.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.83R   49.40  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 22 February 2012, Crawley_Town vs Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              30   61  +29      92.26     5.42    43.07    75.22    96.04    99.99    97.62P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           32   60  +20      79.81     5.14    20.89     2.33    27.29    91.84    40.60P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             32   59  +18      83.24     5.17    25.59     7.18    55.16    97.86    67.63P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   57  +16      82.60     5.36    23.26     5.70    48.51    96.42    63.16P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   56  +17      82.77     5.96    22.18     7.89    49.27    95.37    59.99P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              31   56  +11      78.58     5.42    13.89     1.61    19.47    85.31    36.19P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   50  +13      70.83     5.32    13.61     0.04     1.76    38.41     9.87P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            30   45   +7      68.83     5.51     9.82     0.02     0.90    24.71     6.65P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            31   45   +5      68.95     5.44    10.11     0.00     0.83    25.52     7.10P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                31   45   -1      66.61     5.43     0.48     0.00     0.24    12.80     3.19P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   31   43   -1      63.65     5.31    -0.89     0.00     0.04     4.70     1.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        30   43   -2      63.09     5.56    -5.15     0.00     0.04     4.22     0.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           30   42   +6      67.33     5.65    11.05     0.00     0.44    18.58     5.27P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            31   41   +9      61.26     5.39     8.50     0.00     0.01     2.70     0.59P    0.03R    0.00  
Aldershot            30   40   -5      60.21     5.47    -7.35     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.26P    0.06R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers       31   37  -13      55.89     5.41   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    0.85R    0.16  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   37  -15      52.69     5.22   -23.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.36R    0.77  
Barnet               30   33  -13      50.99     5.41   -19.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     6.65R    2.03  
Bradford             29   31   -5      51.50     5.66    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.79R    1.87  
Macclesfield         31   30  -11      47.03     5.18   -16.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.98R    7.21  
Plymouth             31   27  -17      47.31     5.44   -17.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.19R    7.82  
Hereford             31   27  -20      42.85     5.08   -27.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.06R   27.08  
Northampton          30   27  -22      44.67     5.44   -29.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.42R   19.20  
Dag_&_Red            30   24  -26      42.42     5.49   -31.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.60R   33.84  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 22 February 2012, York vs Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     33   76  +39      98.49     4.87    46.48    43.34    99.99    58.71P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            32   74  +40      99.51     4.96    49.69    55.38   100.00    69.20P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   62  +34      87.68     4.60    46.86     1.26    98.01    40.01P    0.00     0.00  
York               33   57  +29      79.95     4.82    37.08     0.01    70.11    13.92P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          33   55   -4      72.00     4.95    -5.75     0.00    10.10     0.52P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.74     5.09    24.65     0.00    42.18     6.99P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      33   54  +13      74.71     4.97    17.29     0.00    24.85     3.65P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   54   +5      73.35     4.92     7.27     0.00    15.45     1.47P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          32   52  +15      74.17     5.19    19.56     0.00    22.60     3.19P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             33   51   +5      68.13     4.84     3.80     0.00     2.54     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.09     5.37    15.87     0.00    13.24     1.99P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       33   48  +14      65.48     4.82    13.55     0.00     0.90     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     33   43   -5      58.44     4.90    -9.46     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           32   41  -10      56.48     4.96   -16.21     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   40   -6      56.55     4.92    -8.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Newport_County     33   33   -8      50.20     4.79    -8.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.78R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       33   32  -14      51.39     4.95   -11.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.65R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        32   31  -15      46.78     5.08   -20.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.30R    0.15  
Stockport          34   29  -19      45.88     4.75   -18.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.37R    0.36  
Darlington         34   28  -14      44.77     4.60   -13.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.29R    0.39  
Alfreton_Town      32   28  -27      40.61     4.73   -39.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.50R    4.73  
Kettering          33   28  -41      41.18     4.67   -48.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.18R    3.13  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   27  -26      39.84     4.59   -35.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.21R    4.23  
Bath_City          33   18  -36      29.67     4.50   -46.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.62R   86.99  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10