Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 22 February 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 February 2012, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        25   60  +45      87.84     4.46    62.34    56.30    97.58    99.92    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         25   58  +36      87.07     4.26    55.45    43.11    95.97    99.89    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       25   53  +24      75.69     4.79    31.62     0.59     6.20    77.78    94.03    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   43  +13      66.71     4.85    22.71     0.00     0.08     8.07    37.47    90.89     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   43  +13      68.49     4.57    25.73     0.00     0.17    13.18    55.38    95.64     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       25   42   +0      60.45     4.83     0.65     0.00     0.00     0.44     4.74    44.16     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.78     4.86    13.29     0.00     0.00     0.72     8.33    61.98     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   35   -4      48.76     4.68   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.05R    0.00  
Sunderland      25   33   +8      49.93     4.79     6.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.97     0.03R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.58     4.84    -0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.57     0.00     0.00  
Swansea         25   30   -4      44.77     4.71    -8.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.94R    0.04  
Fulham          25   30   -5      47.42     4.73    -5.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.22R    0.02  
Stoke           25   30  -14      45.25     4.67   -18.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.89R    0.03  
West_Brom       25   29   -6      43.80     4.69   -11.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.63R    0.07  
Aston_Villa     25   28   -5      44.26     4.78    -7.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.23R    0.04  
QPR             25   21  -17      32.05     4.32   -28.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.31R   21.37  
Blackburn       25   21  -19      34.22     4.57   -28.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.05R   12.16  
Wolverhampton   25   21  -21      33.48     4.57   -30.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.88R   16.04  
Bolton          25   20  -22      34.30     4.66   -28.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.91R   12.06  
Wigan           25   19  -27      30.73     4.40   -37.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.87R   38.18  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 February 2012, Barnsley vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         31   60  +19      85.95     5.38    27.04    49.15    72.97    98.23    80.18P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      32   59  +26      83.02     5.19    33.40    26.57    55.80    95.93    67.26P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   54  +22      80.40     5.25    30.35    13.59    33.80    89.59    52.74P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   54  +12      76.85     5.33    15.34     4.01    12.49    69.43    26.64P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.13     5.11    16.89     2.54     9.18    66.37    23.36P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    31   53   +6      74.11     5.26     7.01     1.42     4.94    46.98    12.87P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        32   52  +11      74.99     5.30    16.77     1.79     6.82    57.79    19.27P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             30   50   +6      72.64     5.40     7.31     0.75     3.04    36.69     9.80P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         31   49   +3      68.41     5.25     1.59     0.10     0.49    13.31     2.54P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United     32   48   +4      67.11     5.14     3.74     0.04     0.22     9.24     1.93P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          32   47   +7      67.47     5.10     8.74     0.03     0.20    10.41     2.27P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   +3      62.11     5.14     1.35     0.00     0.01     1.30     0.24P    0.03R    0.00  
Leicester        31   42   +5      63.69     5.38     6.55     0.00     0.03     3.24     0.69P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley         32   42   -6      57.79     4.98   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.04P    0.31R    0.01  
Derby            31   42   -8      60.49     5.22   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.07P    0.11R    0.00  
Ipswich          31   40   -7      59.80     5.35    -8.34     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.07P    0.20R    0.01  
Watford          32   40  -11      56.94     5.08   -14.86     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.00P    0.61R    0.01  
Peterborough     31   37   -1      56.79     5.55    -2.77     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    1.23R    0.04  
Millwall         32   31  -13      47.50     5.00   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.31R    3.71  
Bristol_City     32   31  -22      46.56     4.89   -27.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.65R    5.44  
Nott'm_Forest    31   28  -23      45.86     5.11   -26.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.46R    7.97  
Portsmouth       31   25   -1      46.21     5.22     0.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.78R    6.17  
Coventry         32   25  -18      40.74     4.83   -22.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.39R   31.56  
Doncaster        30   24  -25      39.86     5.13   -34.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.89R   45.08  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 February 2012, Charlton vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        31   69  +34      96.91     5.29    45.11    69.37    93.39   100.00    95.48P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   62  +29      92.15     5.50    41.37    25.59    75.20    99.96    83.83P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   57  +13      79.62     5.23    18.16     0.22     2.82    92.33    20.12P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    30   55  +27      84.96     5.46    39.29     3.50    18.61    98.88    47.64P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         31   55  +26      82.28     5.38    36.29     1.19     8.89    97.21    33.97P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       28   48  +19      75.27     6.03    22.87     0.13     1.06    73.65    13.62P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        30   46   -5      67.10     5.64    -6.58     0.00     0.01    13.57     1.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth     32   44   +0      62.86     5.15    -0.50     0.00     0.00     3.31     0.51P    0.08R    0.00  
Brentford       30   43   +6      65.55     5.62     6.88     0.00     0.01     9.90     1.56P    0.05R    0.00  
Hartlepool      31   41   +2      60.24     5.29     0.02     0.00     0.00     1.34     0.19P    0.61R    0.00  
Notts_County    30   40   +1      62.03     5.60     1.06     0.00     0.00     3.06     0.39P    0.40R    0.01  
Colchester      29   39   -4      61.60     5.80    -5.22     0.00     0.00     2.81     0.43P    0.72R    0.01  
Preston         30   39   -7      61.26     5.73    -6.77     0.00     0.00     2.49     0.39P    0.89R    0.01  
Bury            31   39  -11      56.88     5.35   -15.37     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.02P    3.78R    0.04  
Leyton_Orient   30   38  -10      58.18     5.51   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.08P    3.01R    0.04  
Oldham          28   35   -9      57.38     5.94   -12.43     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.08P    4.72R    0.15  
Tranmere        31   34   -6      53.28     5.26    -7.71     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   12.20R    0.38  
Yeovil          31   33  -13      50.27     5.21   -18.40     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    29.65R    2.01  
Exeter          32   33  -17      48.48     4.94   -22.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.01R    4.05  
Walsall         31   31   -6      48.47     5.16   -10.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.99R    3.54  
Scunthorpe      30   31   -7      51.74     5.62    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    20.51R    1.46  
Rochdale        31   28  -22      45.44     5.22   -26.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.01R   13.29  
Chesterfield    31   27  -16      42.92     5.18   -23.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.22R   25.35  
Wycombe         32   26  -24      40.36     4.98   -32.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.13R   49.66  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 February 2012, Aldershot vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Swindon              30   61  +29      92.25     5.45    43.06    73.84    95.84    99.98    97.32P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           32   60  +20      79.77     5.15    20.85     2.37    26.60    91.58    40.24P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             32   59  +18      83.16     5.17    25.47     6.57    53.26    97.75    65.90P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   57  +16      82.62     5.35    23.33     5.79    47.86    96.41    62.36P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              31   56  +11      78.46     5.39    13.77     1.51    18.23    84.70    35.24P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         28   55  +17      83.57     6.17    22.85     9.85    53.79    95.81    63.10P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   50  +13      70.93     5.34    13.74     0.04     1.96    38.67    10.41P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            30   45   +7      68.91     5.59     9.91     0.02     0.87    25.16     6.89P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            31   45   +5      69.08     5.43    10.27     0.01     0.83    26.16     7.42P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                31   45   -1      66.49     5.42     0.29     0.00     0.21    12.02     2.98P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   31   43   -1      63.59     5.38    -0.99     0.00     0.03     4.79     1.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        30   43   -2      63.11     5.55    -5.15     0.00     0.07     4.19     0.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Gillingham           30   42   +6      67.36     5.64    11.10     0.00     0.43    18.36     5.21P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            30   40   +9      61.26     5.55     7.92     0.00     0.03     2.92     0.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Aldershot            30   40   -5      60.17     5.46    -7.40     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.27P    0.07R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers       31   37  -13      55.86     5.39   -15.87     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.86R    0.19  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   37  -15      52.63     5.22   -23.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.37R    0.83  
Barnet               30   33  -13      51.06     5.40   -19.33     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    6.34R    1.90  
Bradford             29   31   -5      51.46     5.63    -9.13     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    5.59R    1.69  
Macclesfield         31   30  -11      47.00     5.15   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.24R    7.27  
Plymouth             31   27  -17      47.32     5.44   -17.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.23R    7.84  
Hereford             31   27  -20      42.82     5.12   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.85R   27.88  
Northampton          30   27  -22      44.65     5.41   -29.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.77R   19.57  
Dag_&_Red            30   24  -26      42.59     5.53   -31.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.66R   32.83  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 21 February 2012, Barrow vs Luton; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     33   76  +39      98.51     4.86    46.49    43.66   100.00    58.97P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            32   74  +40      99.45     4.97    49.59    54.90   100.00    68.66P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              33   62  +34      87.69     4.61    46.87     1.33    97.96    39.21P    0.00     0.00  
York               32   57  +30      82.07     5.00    39.27     0.11    82.00    16.83P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          33   55   -4      72.09     4.97    -5.64     0.00    10.21     0.61P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.56     5.11    24.35     0.00    40.19     6.29P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      33   54  +13      74.69     4.95    17.27     0.00    24.45     3.63P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          32   52  +15      74.17     5.16    19.56     0.00    21.85     2.95P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             33   51   +5      68.08     4.87     3.72     0.00     2.42     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          32   51   +4      70.95     5.13     4.98     0.00     7.62     0.71P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.10     5.34    15.90     0.00    12.43     1.82P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       33   48  +14      65.55     4.81    13.62     0.00     0.86     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     33   43   -5      58.47     4.88    -9.39     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Tamworth           32   41  -10      56.52     4.97   -16.13     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   40   -6      56.54     4.91    -8.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Newport_County     33   33   -8      50.18     4.82    -8.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.92R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       33   32  -14      51.37     4.95   -11.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.66R    0.01  
AFC_Telford        32   31  -15      46.91     5.08   -19.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.98R    0.18  
Stockport          34   29  -19      45.95     4.80   -18.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.28R    0.38  
Darlington         34   28  -14      44.72     4.59   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.33R    0.41  
Alfreton_Town      32   28  -27      40.67     4.75   -38.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.18R    4.51  
Kettering          33   28  -41      41.12     4.65   -49.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.15R    3.17  
Hayes_&_Yeading    33   27  -26      39.85     4.61   -35.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.80R    4.30  
Bath_City          33   18  -36      29.71     4.49   -46.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.61R   87.02  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10