Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 20 February 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 February 2012, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        25   60  +45      87.84     4.44    62.28    56.00    97.55    99.91   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         25   58  +36      87.13     4.26    55.58    43.44    96.07    99.90   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       25   53  +24      75.60     4.82    31.47     0.55     6.08    76.98    93.72    99.89     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   43  +13      66.76     4.83    22.82     0.00     0.08     8.58    38.18    91.05     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   43  +13      68.43     4.54    25.68     0.00     0.21    13.46    54.87    95.81     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       25   42   +0      60.38     4.86     0.54     0.00     0.00     0.38     4.73    43.29     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.84     4.84    13.33     0.00     0.00     0.79     8.42    62.79     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   35   -4      48.78     4.66   -11.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.01     0.04R    0.00  
Sunderland      25   33   +8      49.97     4.78     6.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.99     0.03R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.57     4.85    -0.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     3.36     0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         25   30   -4      44.87     4.70    -8.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.89R    0.03  
Fulham          25   30   -5      47.32     4.71    -5.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.23R    0.00  
Stoke           25   30  -14      45.26     4.68   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.91R    0.03  
West_Brom       25   29   -6      43.85     4.68   -11.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.66R    0.09  
Aston_Villa     25   28   -5      44.30     4.82    -7.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     1.27R    0.05  
QPR             25   21  -17      32.09     4.33   -28.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.64R   20.95  
Blackburn       25   21  -19      34.24     4.56   -28.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.12R   11.69  
Wolverhampton   25   21  -21      33.45     4.59   -30.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.00R   16.11  
Bolton          25   20  -22      34.28     4.70   -28.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.16R   11.93  
Wigan           25   19  -27      30.67     4.41   -38.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.04R   39.12  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 February 2012, Barnsley vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      32   59  +26      82.92     5.11    33.24    32.84    59.64    96.30    69.48P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         30   57  +16      83.56     5.62    22.82    36.06    59.40    94.87    68.88P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   54  +12      76.91     5.26    15.47     5.48    14.72    71.43    29.02P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.14     5.10    16.92     3.68    11.30    67.63    24.96P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        31   52  +14      77.15     5.52    20.99     7.25    18.24    73.82    32.98P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       30   51  +20      78.91     5.53    28.55    12.37    28.40    83.39    46.92P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             30   50   +6      72.57     5.39     7.23     1.07     3.66    37.55    10.08P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    30   50   +4      72.11     5.41     4.55     0.96     3.16    33.84     8.87P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         31   49   +3      68.52     5.29     1.69     0.16     0.77    14.28     2.97P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     32   48   +4      67.13     5.12     3.75     0.05     0.32     9.78     2.08P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          32   47   +7      67.42     5.07     8.67     0.05     0.31    10.54     2.41P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   +3      62.12     5.08     1.40     0.00     0.02     1.46     0.28P    0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        31   42   +5      63.63     5.33     6.48     0.01     0.05     3.36     0.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley         31   42   -4      59.11     5.16    -9.40     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.07P    0.18R    0.00  
Derby            31   42   -8      60.52     5.20   -11.02     0.00     0.01     0.63     0.09P    0.14R    0.00  
Ipswich          31   40   -7      59.87     5.35    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.07P    0.22R    0.01  
Watford          32   40  -11      57.06     5.07   -14.67     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.71R    0.00  
Peterborough     31   37   -1      56.72     5.57    -2.94     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    1.38R    0.04  
Millwall         31   31  -11      49.15     5.20   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.08R    2.06  
Bristol_City     32   31  -22      46.61     4.88   -27.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.69R    5.46  
Nott'm_Forest    31   28  -23      45.71     5.09   -27.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.09R    8.45  
Portsmouth       31   25   -1      46.13     5.18     0.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.66R    6.46  
Coventry         32   25  -18      40.71     4.81   -22.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.80R   31.82  
Doncaster        30   24  -25      39.82     5.11   -34.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.02R   45.70  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 February 2012, Chesterfield vs Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        30   68  +34      98.26     5.43    46.60    75.44    95.50   100.00    96.94P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   62  +29      92.14     5.53    41.36    20.89    75.32    99.96    83.97P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   57  +13      79.80     5.19    18.46     0.17     2.90    92.25    20.57P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    30   55  +27      84.85     5.57    39.11     2.68    17.73    98.56    46.52P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         30   52  +25      81.45     5.56    36.59     0.72     7.43    95.48    32.83P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       28   48  +19      75.09     6.04    22.61     0.09     1.06    70.84    12.94P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        29   46   -1      69.01     5.86    -1.77     0.00     0.07    22.40     3.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth     32   44   +0      62.83     5.14    -0.58     0.00     0.00     3.18     0.57P    0.10R    0.00  
Hartlepool      31   41   +2      60.34     5.31     0.17     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.17P    0.54R    0.00  
Brentford       29   40   +2      63.46     5.81     2.23     0.00     0.00     5.67     0.87P    0.23R    0.00  
Notts_County    30   40   +1      62.05     5.63     1.08     0.00     0.00     3.19     0.48P    0.36R    0.00  
Colchester      29   39   -4      61.57     5.80    -5.27     0.00     0.00     2.87     0.41P    0.64R    0.01  
Preston         30   39   -7      61.20     5.77    -6.86     0.00     0.00     2.47     0.37P    0.78R    0.00  
Bury            30   39  -10      57.54     5.52   -15.63     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.06P    2.97R    0.05  
Leyton_Orient   30   38  -10      58.13     5.49   -12.90     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.07P    2.67R    0.04  
Oldham          28   35   -9      57.24     5.91   -12.64     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.08P    4.37R    0.10  
Tranmere        31   34   -6      53.38     5.25    -7.59     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   11.16R    0.36  
Yeovil          31   33  -13      50.34     5.22   -18.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    27.57R    1.79  
Exeter          32   33  -17      48.49     4.95   -22.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.18R    3.68  
Scunthorpe      29   31   -6      53.65     5.88    -7.42     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   12.75R    0.73  
Walsall         30   28   -7      46.43     5.36   -12.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.87R    7.61  
Chesterfield    31   27  -16      42.90     5.19   -23.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.25R   24.01  
Rochdale        30   27  -22      44.96     5.37   -28.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.89R   14.72  
Wycombe         32   26  -24      40.29     4.99   -32.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.68R   46.91  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 February 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             31   59  +20      85.09     5.42    28.37    13.98    62.23    98.77    72.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           31   59  +20      80.89     5.36    21.98     3.99    29.61    93.58    42.76P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              29   58  +28      90.80     5.65    42.24    59.40    90.72    99.89    94.28P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   57  +17      83.79     5.60    24.05    10.21    50.57    97.24    64.56P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              31   56  +11      78.49     5.42    13.83     1.45    15.27    84.93    32.84P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         28   55  +17      83.59     6.21    22.85    10.87    48.54    95.73    59.30P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   47  +12      69.67     5.54    13.27     0.04     0.90    30.53     7.46P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            30   45   +7      68.79     5.53     9.77     0.02     0.55    24.34     6.30P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            30   44   +5      69.31     5.65    10.07     0.01     0.79    27.85     7.75P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   43   +1      65.11     5.56     1.19     0.00     0.11     8.39     1.96P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        30   43   -2      63.12     5.58    -5.13     0.00     0.04     4.26     0.81P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                30   42   -3      64.92     5.66    -1.68     0.00     0.09     8.08     1.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Gillingham           29   41   +6      67.97     5.90    11.53     0.02     0.56    22.47     6.42P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            30   40   +9      61.24     5.60     7.86     0.00     0.01     3.05     0.69P    0.04R    0.00  
Aldershot            29   37   -7      57.86     5.66   -10.39     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.13P    0.39R    0.06  
Bristol_Rovers       31   37  -13      55.83     5.43   -15.94     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.89R    0.15  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   36  -15      52.32     5.39   -24.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.17R    1.04  
Barnet               29   33  -12      52.00     5.61   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    4.70R    1.25  
Bradford             29   31   -5      51.33     5.65    -9.33     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.69R    1.68  
Macclesfield         30   30  -10      48.42     5.38   -14.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   13.12R    4.56  
Plymouth             31   27  -17      47.38     5.44   -17.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.32R    7.05  
Hereford             31   27  -20      42.90     5.10   -27.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.54R   25.18  
Northampton          29   24  -23      43.10     5.61   -30.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.16R   27.76  
Dag_&_Red            30   24  -26      42.50     5.51   -31.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.97R   31.27  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 February 2012, AFC_Telford vs Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     32   73  +35      97.42     5.05    43.32    43.86    99.96    58.31P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   71  +39      97.78     5.20    48.52    50.09    99.98    64.86P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              32   62  +35      89.83     4.81    49.12     5.91    99.02    43.40P    0.00     0.00  
York               32   57  +30      82.13     5.00    39.36     0.13    82.16    16.89P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          33   55   -4      72.00     4.93    -5.78     0.00     9.66     0.60P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.64     5.12    24.50     0.00    40.40     6.44P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      32   54  +14      76.10     5.18    18.35     0.00    34.09     4.99P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          32   51   +4      70.93     5.12     4.95     0.00     7.44     0.63P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          31   49  +12      72.39     5.37    16.23     0.00    13.30     1.90P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.23     5.37    16.07     0.00    12.49     1.84P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             32   48   +4      65.74     5.05     1.64     0.00     0.99     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       32   45  +12      63.81     5.06    11.45     0.00     0.48     0.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     33   43   -5      58.41     4.89    -9.53     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   40   -2      57.66     5.08    -4.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Tamworth           31   38  -11      54.81     5.19   -17.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20R    0.00  
Newport_County     32   33   -7      51.61     5.07    -7.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.24R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       33   32  -14      51.44     4.96   -11.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.76R    0.02  
AFC_Telford        32   31  -15      46.77     5.10   -20.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.72R    0.29  
Stockport          34   29  -19      45.85     4.77   -18.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.04R    0.52  
Darlington         33   28  -11      45.99     4.81   -10.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.95R    0.40  
Alfreton_Town      32   28  -27      40.65     4.73   -38.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.45R    6.21  
Kettering          32   28  -39      42.55     4.93   -46.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.91R    2.89  
Hayes_&_Yeading    32   24  -27      37.96     4.84   -37.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.16R   14.59  
Bath_City          32   18  -35      31.38     4.81   -44.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.54R   75.07  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10