Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 19 February 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 February 2012, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        25   60  +45      87.91     4.44    62.47    56.47    97.70    99.89   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         25   58  +36      87.09     4.23    55.48    42.97    96.08    99.90   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       25   53  +24      75.64     4.81    31.57     0.57     5.96    77.51    94.00    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   43  +13      66.69     4.87    22.73     0.00     0.09     8.12    37.73    90.77     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   43  +13      68.46     4.55    25.72     0.00     0.17    13.45    55.38    95.91     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       25   42   +0      60.35     4.82     0.47     0.00     0.00     0.38     4.55    43.32     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.79     4.86    13.26     0.00     0.00     0.74     8.27    62.57     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   35   -4      48.81     4.70   -11.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.12     0.06R    0.00  
Sunderland      25   33   +8      50.00     4.78     6.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.10     0.02R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.57     4.83     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     3.50     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         25   30   -4      44.80     4.69    -8.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.88R    0.04  
Fulham          25   30   -5      47.30     4.74    -5.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.21R    0.01  
Stoke           25   30  -14      45.27     4.70   -18.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.87R    0.03  
West_Brom       25   29   -6      43.88     4.66   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.56R    0.07  
Aston_Villa     25   28   -5      44.26     4.84    -7.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     1.29R    0.06  
QPR             25   21  -17      32.07     4.31   -28.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.00R   20.69  
Blackburn       25   21  -19      34.18     4.58   -28.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.70R   12.46  
Wolverhampton   25   21  -21      33.48     4.59   -30.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.64R   16.14  
Bolton          25   20  -22      34.27     4.69   -28.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.19R   12.29  
Wigan           25   19  -27      30.78     4.42   -37.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.56R   38.20  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 February 2012, Barnsley vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      32   59  +26      82.90     5.13    33.21    32.94    59.37    96.21    69.25P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         30   57  +16      83.61     5.56    22.89    36.59    59.89    95.27    69.59P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   54  +12      76.89     5.28    15.43     5.48    14.73    71.10    28.73P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          32   53  +11      76.12     5.12    16.88     3.64    11.12    67.55    24.64P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        31   52  +14      77.09     5.52    20.91     6.94    17.90    73.33    32.52P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       30   51  +20      78.90     5.47    28.53    12.04    28.50    83.87    47.07P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             30   50   +6      72.63     5.34     7.33     1.09     3.74    37.88    10.34P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    30   50   +4      72.09     5.43     4.54     1.01     3.42    33.57     9.21P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         31   49   +3      68.50     5.25     1.70     0.17     0.63    14.33     2.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United     32   48   +4      67.15     5.14     3.75     0.06     0.31     9.85     2.13P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          32   47   +7      67.38     5.07     8.57     0.04     0.30    10.54     2.40P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   +3      62.05     5.12     1.31     0.00     0.01     1.34     0.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        31   42   +5      63.59     5.31     6.40     0.00     0.05     3.32     0.74P    0.02R    0.00  
Barnsley         31   42   -4      59.14     5.20    -9.33     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.06P    0.20R    0.00  
Derby            31   42   -8      60.58     5.23   -10.91     0.01     0.01     0.65     0.10P    0.15R    0.00  
Ipswich          31   40   -7      59.83     5.36    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.08P    0.21R    0.00  
Watford          32   40  -11      56.92     5.09   -14.90     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.81R    0.02  
Peterborough     31   37   -1      56.73     5.55    -2.92     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    1.33R    0.06  
Millwall         31   31  -11      49.16     5.22   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.49R    2.27  
Bristol_City     32   31  -22      46.71     4.92   -27.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.41R    5.43  
Nott'm_Forest    31   28  -23      45.73     5.09   -27.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.33R    8.65  
Portsmouth       31   25   -1      46.25     5.17     0.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.09R    6.12  
Coventry         32   25  -18      40.71     4.79   -22.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.11R   32.25  
Doncaster        30   24  -25      39.93     5.11   -34.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.82R   45.20  

Adjustments:
Portsmouth       -10


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 February 2012, Chesterfield vs Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        30   68  +34      98.42     5.43    46.83    76.06    95.51   100.00    96.94P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   62  +29      92.17     5.55    41.40    20.35    75.14    99.97    83.96P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   57  +13      79.74     5.21    18.36     0.18     2.93    91.94    20.29P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    30   55  +27      84.94     5.53    39.30     2.68    18.08    98.66    47.21P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         30   52  +25      81.46     5.58    36.62     0.65     7.21    95.35    32.20P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       28   48  +19      75.19     6.08    22.72     0.09     1.09    71.48    13.15P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        29   46   -1      69.03     5.87    -1.71     0.00     0.04    22.71     3.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth     32   44   +0      62.80     5.17    -0.58     0.00     0.00     3.06     0.56P    0.10R    0.00  
Hartlepool      31   41   +2      60.29     5.27     0.09     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.17P    0.57R    0.00  
Brentford       29   40   +2      63.53     5.78     2.25     0.00     0.00     5.73     0.91P    0.17R    0.00  
Notts_County    30   40   +1      62.04     5.58     1.11     0.00     0.00     3.14     0.42P    0.33R    0.00  
Colchester      29   39   -4      61.60     5.79    -5.23     0.00     0.00     2.76     0.43P    0.65R    0.00  
Preston         30   39   -7      61.15     5.74    -6.90     0.00     0.00     2.31     0.42P    0.82R    0.01  
Bury            30   39  -10      57.53     5.55   -15.64     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.05P    2.93R    0.05  
Leyton_Orient   30   38  -10      58.12     5.46   -12.95     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.06P    2.54R    0.02  
Oldham          28   35   -9      57.22     5.87   -12.64     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.07P    4.31R    0.09  
Tranmere        31   34   -6      53.32     5.26    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   11.08R    0.33  
Yeovil          31   33  -13      50.25     5.18   -18.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   27.91R    1.70  
Exeter          32   33  -17      48.51     4.93   -22.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.70R    3.65  
Scunthorpe      29   31   -6      53.52     5.86    -7.60     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   13.05R    0.82  
Walsall         30   28   -7      46.35     5.36   -12.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   54.39R    7.65  
Chesterfield    31   27  -16      43.06     5.21   -23.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.54R   22.84  
Rochdale        30   27  -22      44.89     5.36   -28.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.22R   15.06  
Wycombe         32   26  -24      40.25     4.96   -32.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.70R   47.78  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 February 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             31   59  +20      85.07     5.39    28.34    13.79    62.35    98.81    73.11P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           31   59  +20      80.85     5.34    21.92     3.74    29.28    93.54    42.58P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              29   58  +28      90.80     5.65    42.22    60.01    90.60    99.89    94.01P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   57  +17      83.66     5.55    23.88     9.70    49.66    97.28    64.00P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              31   56  +11      78.55     5.41    13.88     1.57    15.59    84.87    33.14P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         28   55  +17      83.66     6.18    22.98    11.09    49.37    95.82    59.91P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   47  +12      69.73     5.54    13.36     0.04     1.01    31.09     7.74P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            30   45   +7      68.77     5.56     9.75     0.02     0.57    24.23     6.20P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            30   44   +5      69.22     5.65     9.91     0.01     0.79    27.39     7.61P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   43   +1      65.08     5.59     1.17     0.00     0.12     8.65     2.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        30   43   -2      63.22     5.55    -4.96     0.00     0.05     4.49     0.73P    0.02R    0.00  
Crewe                30   42   -3      64.79     5.59    -1.84     0.00     0.07     7.49     1.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           29   41   +6      67.99     5.87    11.54     0.01     0.51    22.51     6.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            30   40   +9      61.21     5.58     7.81     0.00     0.03     3.02     0.64P    0.03R    0.00  
Aldershot            29   37   -7      57.96     5.66   -10.27     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.12P    0.28R    0.04  
Bristol_Rovers       31   37  -13      55.87     5.42   -15.92     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P    0.86R    0.19  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   36  -15      52.33     5.40   -24.40     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    4.05R    1.00  
Barnet               29   33  -12      51.99     5.61   -18.99     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    4.91R    1.36  
Bradford             29   31   -5      51.45     5.67    -9.13     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    5.56R    1.59  
Macclesfield         30   30  -10      48.39     5.37   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.32R    4.69  
Plymouth             31   27  -17      47.46     5.41   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.58R    6.87  
Hereford             31   27  -20      42.80     5.10   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.20R   25.73  
Northampton          29   24  -23      43.09     5.64   -30.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.16R   27.79  
Dag_&_Red            30   24  -26      42.49     5.51   -31.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.01R   30.73  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 18 February 2012, AFC_Telford vs Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     32   73  +35      97.28     5.07    43.11    42.33    99.98    57.15P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   71  +39      97.90     5.21    48.71    51.66    99.98    65.78P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              32   62  +35      89.75     4.86    49.00     5.80    98.92    43.20P    0.00     0.00  
York               32   57  +30      82.15     5.03    39.44     0.20    82.22    17.19P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          33   55   -4      71.96     4.97    -5.83     0.00     9.68     0.54P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            32   54  +19      76.67     5.09    24.56     0.01    40.41     6.52P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      32   54  +14      76.13     5.19    18.39     0.01    34.27     5.19P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          32   51   +4      70.98     5.13     5.00     0.00     7.35     0.69P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          31   49  +12      72.46     5.40    16.34     0.00    13.54     1.81P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      31   49  +12      72.12     5.36    15.93     0.00    12.14     1.79P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             32   48   +4      65.84     5.04     1.77     0.00     1.06     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       32   45  +12      63.78     5.01    11.43     0.00     0.44     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     33   43   -5      58.36     4.88    -9.61     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   40   -2      57.60     5.07    -4.99     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Tamworth           31   38  -11      54.77     5.18   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18R    0.00  
Newport_County     32   33   -7      51.67     5.05    -7.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.15R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       33   32  -14      51.52     4.96   -11.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.68R    0.04  
AFC_Telford        32   31  -15      46.91     5.09   -19.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.25R    0.30  
Stockport          34   29  -19      45.82     4.81   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.35R    0.57  
Darlington         33   28  -11      45.87     4.77   -10.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.16R    0.38  
Alfreton_Town      32   28  -27      40.68     4.75   -38.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.36R    6.17  
Kettering          32   28  -39      42.58     4.89   -46.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.31R    3.02  
Hayes_&_Yeading    32   24  -27      37.85     4.84   -37.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.90R   15.11  
Bath_City          32   18  -35      31.40     4.77   -44.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.62R   74.40  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10