Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 17 February 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 February 2012, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        25   60  +45      87.84     4.47    62.30    55.56    97.61    99.90    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         25   58  +36      87.15     4.23    55.64    43.92    96.24    99.91   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       25   53  +24      75.63     4.83    31.54     0.51     5.93    76.94    93.70    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   43  +13      66.73     4.84    22.74     0.00     0.07     8.46    37.47    90.89     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   43  +13      68.50     4.54    25.77     0.00     0.16    13.43    55.69    95.77     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       25   42   +0      60.42     4.86     0.57     0.00     0.00     0.45     4.70    43.87     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.81     4.91    13.31     0.00     0.00     0.90     8.36    62.37     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   35   -4      48.83     4.70   -11.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.03     0.06R    0.00  
Sunderland      25   33   +8      50.00     4.79     6.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.01     0.03R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.52     4.84    -0.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     3.36     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         25   30   -4      44.86     4.69    -8.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.91R    0.02  
Fulham          25   30   -5      47.27     4.70    -6.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.25R    0.01  
Stoke           25   30  -14      45.21     4.65   -18.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.89R    0.04  
West_Brom       25   29   -6      43.81     4.67   -11.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.71R    0.07  
Aston_Villa     25   28   -5      44.21     4.81    -8.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.29R    0.04  
QPR             25   21  -17      32.12     4.32   -28.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.63R   20.70  
Blackburn       25   21  -19      34.23     4.58   -28.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.09R   12.22  
Wolverhampton   25   21  -21      33.48     4.56   -30.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.86R   16.02  
Bolton          25   20  -22      34.29     4.69   -28.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.06R   12.26  
Wigan           25   19  -27      30.70     4.39   -38.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.21R   38.61  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2012, Birmingham vs Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         30   57  +16      83.68     5.62    22.98    38.77    60.05    94.95    69.47P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      31   56  +22      81.62     5.33    29.66    24.51    48.83    92.87    60.39P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          31   53  +14      78.02     5.35    20.64     8.70    21.46    78.65    36.13P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        31   52  +14      77.11     5.55    20.91     7.53    18.43    72.92    32.60P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       30   51  +20      79.05     5.49    28.71    13.54    30.23    84.31    48.09P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          30   51  +11      75.77     5.54    15.14     4.40    12.01    62.58    24.70P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             30   50   +6      72.54     5.38     7.19     1.18     3.81    36.70    10.18P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    30   50   +4      72.12     5.46     4.57     1.01     3.44    33.88     9.21P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         31   49   +3      68.29     5.25     1.42     0.16     0.67    13.21     2.63P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          31   47   +8      68.52     5.28     9.27     0.14     0.73    15.51     3.69P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     31   45   +3      66.10     5.34     3.71     0.04     0.22     7.71     1.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester        31   42   +5      63.73     5.35     6.63     0.01     0.09     3.63     0.82P    0.04R    0.00  
Derby            30   42   -4      61.67     5.41    -7.30     0.00     0.02     1.32     0.20P    0.15R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   40   -1      59.86     5.30    -3.41     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.09P    0.36R    0.01  
Watford          31   40   -7      58.72     5.32   -10.07     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P    0.77R    0.01  
Barnsley         30   39   -6      57.29     5.36   -11.64     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    1.65R    0.04  
Ipswich          30   37  -10      57.52     5.57   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P    1.78R    0.06  
Portsmouth       30   35   +1      57.86     5.48     2.58     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P    1.31R    0.04  
Peterborough     30   34   -4      55.16     5.78    -5.84     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    5.05R    0.32  
Millwall         31   31  -11      49.14     5.22   -14.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.47R    2.90  
Bristol_City     31   31  -19      47.78     5.14   -24.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.34R    4.98  
Coventry         31   25  -16      41.98     5.00   -20.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.11R   27.74  
Nott'm_Forest    30   25  -25      44.30     5.30   -28.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.61R   17.57  
Doncaster        29   24  -24      40.48     5.29   -34.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.35R   46.32  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2012, Bournemouth vs Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        29   67  +34      99.19     5.63    47.40    80.78    96.33   100.00    97.44P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       29   59  +28      91.32     5.69    41.62    15.85    70.94    99.89    81.21P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   57  +14      81.52     5.46    20.03     0.44     6.70    94.36    25.13P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    30   55  +27      84.95     5.50    39.32     2.48    20.04    98.49    48.67P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         29   49  +20      79.65     5.79    31.17     0.38     4.72    90.16    26.84P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       28   48  +19      75.03     6.04    22.50     0.07     1.21    67.89    12.98P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        29   46   -1      68.86     5.82    -1.90     0.00     0.03    20.55     2.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth     31   44   +1      64.47     5.39     0.81     0.00     0.01     5.86     1.07P    0.03R    0.00  
Notts_County    29   40   +4      63.75     5.80     4.62     0.00     0.00     5.41     0.83P    0.08R    0.00  
Brentford       29   40   +2      63.51     5.79     2.30     0.00     0.00     5.15     0.92P    0.10R    0.00  
Colchester      28   39   -3      63.16     6.05    -3.91     0.00     0.01     4.85     0.76P    0.23R    0.00  
Preston         29   39   -6      62.05     5.92    -6.78     0.00     0.00     3.33     0.58P    0.27R    0.01  
Bury            29   39   -9      58.86     5.76   -14.58     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.10P    1.25R    0.01  
Hartlepool      30   38   -1      58.22     5.47    -3.53     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.09P    1.09R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   29   38   -8      60.01     5.73   -10.12     0.00     0.00     1.18     0.17P    0.89R    0.01  
Oldham          27   35   -4      59.00     6.11    -7.06     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.19P    1.51R    0.03  
Tranmere        30   33   -6      53.14     5.42    -8.40     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    8.47R    0.24  
Yeovil          30   30  -14      48.51     5.43   -19.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.04R    2.90  
Exeter          31   30  -18      46.84     5.17   -23.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.03R    4.98  
Scunthorpe      28   28   -8      51.42     6.11   -10.29     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   17.38R    1.45  
Wycombe         31   26  -22      41.73     5.24   -30.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.20R   26.38  
Walsall         29   25   -9      45.00     5.60   -13.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.99R    9.99  
Chesterfield    30   24  -17      40.73     5.38   -25.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.52R   32.55  
Rochdale        29   24  -23      42.77     5.56   -30.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.94R   21.46  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2012, Aldershot vs Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             30   56  +19      83.90     5.59    28.09    13.14    57.81    97.12    69.35P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           30   56  +15      78.63     5.58    15.96     2.62    19.58    82.90    31.60P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              30   56  +12      80.68     5.63    16.04     4.94    30.65    89.84    45.71P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              28   55  +27      89.78     5.83    42.11    57.17    88.67    99.67    92.87P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         28   55  +17      83.40     6.18    22.62    12.61    51.42    94.79    61.12P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           29   54  +16      82.49     5.79    23.51     9.25    45.45    94.21    60.44P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   46  +12      70.21     5.75    13.50     0.09     1.75    31.64     8.54P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            29   43   +5      69.92     5.87    10.43     0.05     1.56    29.60     8.83P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   43   +5      67.63     5.80     6.96     0.02     0.66    16.80     4.49P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            29   42   +6      66.99     5.79     8.50     0.02     0.45    14.97     3.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        29   42   -2      63.37     5.80    -5.36     0.01     0.11     4.65     0.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                29   42   -2      65.96     5.84    -1.23     0.01     0.27    10.26     2.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           28   41   +7      69.53     6.14    12.82     0.08     1.57    29.09     8.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            29   39   +9      61.94     5.82     8.30     0.00     0.05     3.87     0.88P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       30   36  -13      56.05     5.66   -16.19     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    1.04R    0.22  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   35  -15      52.32     5.59   -25.18     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    4.80R    1.37  
Aldershot            28   34   -8      55.98     5.83   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    1.20R    0.30  
Barnet               28   33  -11      53.11     5.80   -18.34     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    3.71R    1.01  
Macclesfield         29   30   -9      49.88     5.58   -13.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.30R    3.11  
Bradford             28   28   -6      48.91     5.81   -11.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    12.95R    4.98  
Hereford             30   27  -19      43.59     5.25   -27.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.14R   23.56  
Plymouth             30   24  -21      44.68     5.62   -23.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.80R   18.14  
Dag_&_Red            29   24  -21      44.77     5.77   -25.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.42R   18.41  
Northampton          29   24  -23      43.12     5.65   -30.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.60R   28.91  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2012, Lincoln_City vs Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     31   70  +34      96.16     5.32    42.85    41.15    99.87    56.27P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.11     5.37    47.12    52.05    99.94    66.09P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      89.02     4.98    47.43     6.50    97.92    43.44P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          32   55   -3      73.20     5.20    -5.09     0.00    13.70     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.24     5.22    39.48     0.23    73.80    16.21P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      77.02     5.38    19.22     0.05    38.14     5.82P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.21     5.34    23.81     0.01    28.24     4.85P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.29     5.33     5.94     0.00    10.85     1.00P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      74.01     5.60    17.65     0.01    20.08     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.28     5.58    16.63     0.00    16.63     2.56P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.25     5.26    -1.20     0.00     0.54     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     32   43   -4      59.90     5.18    -8.31     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.28     5.30    10.62     0.00     0.25     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           30   38   -8      55.34     5.34   -15.87     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.19R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.90     5.33    -6.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       32   31  -14      51.28     5.15   -12.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.02R    0.06  
Newport_County     31   30   -8      49.88     5.31    -9.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.94R    0.07  
Stockport          33   29  -18      46.57     4.96   -18.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.01R    0.59  
Darlington         32   28   -9      47.93     5.04    -7.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.02R    0.26  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      45.03     5.33   -21.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.11R    1.24  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.83     5.15   -44.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.05R    2.63  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.32     4.96   -41.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.50R   17.31  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.42     4.98   -35.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.65R   15.12  
Bath_City          31   18  -34      32.85     5.05   -43.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.36R   62.73  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10