Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 16 February 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 February 2012, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        25   60  +45      87.90     4.43    62.39    56.48    97.63    99.89   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         25   58  +36      87.13     4.23    55.60    43.00    96.33    99.91   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       25   53  +24      75.64     4.80    31.56     0.52     5.81    77.20    93.78    99.87     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   43  +13      66.78     4.86    22.85     0.00     0.08     8.40    38.10    91.04     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   43  +13      68.49     4.55    25.76     0.00     0.15    13.41    55.30    95.78     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       25   42   +0      60.38     4.85     0.54     0.00     0.00     0.42     4.58    43.32     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.80     4.85    13.27     0.00     0.00     0.76     8.16    62.67     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   35   -4      48.80     4.69   -11.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.04     0.05R    0.00  
Sunderland      25   33   +8      50.00     4.77     6.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.06     0.03R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.56     4.86    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     3.43     0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         25   30   -4      44.81     4.71    -8.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.93R    0.04  
Fulham          25   30   -5      47.32     4.70    -5.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.18R    0.00  
Stoke           25   30  -14      45.21     4.69   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.94R    0.04  
West_Brom       25   29   -6      43.88     4.69   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.55R    0.06  
Aston_Villa     25   28   -5      44.18     4.79    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     1.18R    0.06  
QPR             25   21  -17      32.09     4.32   -28.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.95R   20.63  
Blackburn       25   21  -19      34.17     4.56   -28.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.54R   12.54  
Wolverhampton   25   21  -21      33.53     4.59   -30.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.32R   15.68  
Bolton          25   20  -22      34.23     4.70   -28.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.38R   12.31  
Wigan           25   19  -27      30.71     4.38   -38.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.95R   38.64  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2012, Birmingham vs Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         30   57  +16      83.56     5.64    22.82    37.88    59.80    94.67    69.07P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      31   56  +22      81.57     5.37    29.60    25.26    48.55    92.67    59.88P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          31   53  +14      78.01     5.35    20.61     8.70    21.78    78.27    35.93P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        31   52  +14      77.10     5.52    20.90     7.43    18.21    73.12    32.23P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       30   51  +20      79.00     5.49    28.65    13.57    30.36    83.93    48.54P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          30   51  +11      75.77     5.51    15.14     4.51    12.04    62.68    24.87P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             30   50   +6      72.68     5.38     7.40     1.19     3.88    37.64    10.55P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    30   50   +4      72.17     5.44     4.64     1.12     3.57    33.94     9.33P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         31   49   +3      68.35     5.29     1.50     0.14     0.63    13.80     2.78P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          31   47   +8      68.41     5.31     9.11     0.17     0.79    15.05     3.77P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     31   45   +3      66.20     5.37     3.89     0.02     0.30     7.90     1.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Leicester        31   42   +5      63.71     5.37     6.61     0.01     0.07     3.50     0.81P    0.05R    0.00  
Derby            30   42   -4      61.63     5.40    -7.34     0.00     0.02     1.18     0.21P    0.18R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   40   -1      60.00     5.26    -3.23     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.09P    0.31R    0.01  
Watford          31   40   -7      58.71     5.32   -10.07     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P    0.75R    0.01  
Barnsley         30   39   -6      57.27     5.38   -11.66     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.02P    1.64R    0.04  
Ipswich          30   37  -10      57.49     5.59   -12.47     0.00     0.01     0.24     0.03P    1.89R    0.06  
Portsmouth       30   35   +1      57.82     5.41     2.55     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    1.22R    0.05  
Peterborough     30   34   -4      55.21     5.80    -5.83     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    4.75R    0.32  
Millwall         31   31  -11      49.14     5.24   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.34R    2.95  
Bristol_City     31   31  -19      47.80     5.14   -24.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.16R    4.83  
Coventry         31   25  -16      41.99     5.04   -20.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.03R   27.84  
Nott'm_Forest    30   25  -25      44.15     5.30   -28.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.61R   18.58  
Doncaster        29   24  -24      40.55     5.28   -34.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.08R   45.31  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2012, Bournemouth vs Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        29   67  +34      99.09     5.63    47.28    79.86    96.34   100.00    97.47P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       29   59  +28      91.30     5.78    41.55    16.60    70.29    99.88    80.49P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   57  +14      81.58     5.49    20.10     0.45     7.05    94.15    25.50P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    30   55  +27      85.06     5.52    39.42     2.70    20.46    98.46    48.76P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         29   49  +20      79.64     5.80    31.14     0.29     4.74    89.98    27.03P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       28   48  +19      75.14     6.02    22.64     0.10     1.05    68.56    13.18P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        29   46   -1      68.97     5.83    -1.72     0.00     0.05    20.76     3.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth     31   44   +1      64.43     5.37     0.77     0.00     0.01     5.62     0.99P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County    29   40   +4      63.77     5.78     4.66     0.00     0.00     5.51     0.82P    0.08R    0.00  
Brentford       29   40   +2      63.42     5.81     2.18     0.00     0.00     5.12     0.85P    0.12R    0.00  
Colchester      28   39   -3      63.16     6.02    -3.90     0.00     0.00     4.83     0.73P    0.20R    0.00  
Preston         29   39   -6      62.01     5.89    -6.87     0.00     0.00     3.17     0.56P    0.31R    0.00  
Bury            29   39   -9      58.89     5.73   -14.55     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.10P    1.10R    0.02  
Hartlepool      30   38   -1      58.19     5.46    -3.58     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.06P    1.07R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   29   38   -8      60.02     5.71   -10.09     0.00     0.00     1.16     0.17P    0.84R    0.01  
Oldham          27   35   -4      58.92     6.09    -7.18     0.00     0.00     1.25     0.18P    1.49R    0.03  
Tranmere        30   33   -6      53.17     5.47    -8.39     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    8.51R    0.28  
Yeovil          30   30  -14      48.38     5.40   -19.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.84R    3.07  
Exeter          31   30  -18      46.86     5.14   -23.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.14R    4.98  
Scunthorpe      28   28   -8      51.42     6.08   -10.27     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   17.20R    1.47  
Wycombe         31   26  -22      41.65     5.23   -30.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.49R   27.00  
Walsall         29   25   -9      44.96     5.58   -14.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.27R   10.03  
Chesterfield    30   24  -17      40.78     5.43   -25.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.23R   32.38  
Rochdale        29   24  -23      42.89     5.54   -29.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.09R   20.73  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2012, Aldershot vs Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             30   56  +19      83.95     5.64    28.18    13.44    58.29    97.12    69.61P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           30   56  +15      78.48     5.56    15.76     2.37    19.05    82.41    30.75P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              30   56  +12      80.65     5.63    15.98     4.96    30.48    89.91    45.83P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              28   55  +27      89.83     5.82    42.16    57.23    89.03    99.68    93.23P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         28   55  +17      83.35     6.13    22.54    12.42    51.08    94.66    60.71P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           29   54  +16      82.51     5.74    23.52     9.29    45.60    94.74    60.39P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   46  +12      70.24     5.74    13.57     0.09     1.72    31.89     8.67P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            29   43   +5      69.92     5.90    10.46     0.06     1.63    29.49     8.84P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   43   +5      67.55     5.79     6.85     0.03     0.62    16.65     4.56P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            29   42   +6      67.04     5.78     8.59     0.01     0.39    15.25     4.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        29   42   -2      63.26     5.76    -5.52     0.00     0.10     4.31     0.82P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                29   42   -2      65.86     5.84    -1.42     0.02     0.30    10.03     2.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           28   41   +7      69.55     6.15    12.78     0.08     1.69    29.35     9.07P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            29   39   +9      61.93     5.80     8.29     0.00     0.04     3.87     0.89P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       30   36  -13      56.11     5.63   -16.13     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P    0.91R    0.19  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   35  -15      52.44     5.61   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    4.71R    1.30  
Aldershot            28   34   -8      56.00     5.87   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.03P    1.12R    0.24  
Barnet               28   33  -11      53.08     5.75   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    3.68R    0.99  
Macclesfield         29   30   -9      49.92     5.57   -13.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.45R    3.20  
Bradford             28   28   -6      48.94     5.83   -11.42     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   12.97R    5.03  
Hereford             30   27  -19      43.53     5.25   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.90R   24.10  
Plymouth             30   24  -21      44.75     5.58   -22.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.56R   17.74  
Dag_&_Red            29   24  -21      44.79     5.79   -25.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.43R   18.54  
Northampton          29   24  -23      43.19     5.65   -30.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.23R   28.65  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2012, Lincoln_City vs Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     31   70  +34      96.13     5.29    42.86    40.76    99.88    56.14P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.17     5.36    47.26    52.47    99.95    66.45P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      89.05     5.00    47.48     6.49    98.04    43.52P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          32   55   -3      73.19     5.21    -5.10     0.00    13.81     0.83P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.22     5.20    39.44     0.21    74.17    16.18P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      76.93     5.39    19.07     0.03    38.17     5.58P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.19     5.38    23.77     0.01    28.58     4.83P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.11     5.33     5.69     0.00    10.51     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      73.95     5.58    17.53     0.01    19.46     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.29     5.54    16.59     0.01    16.55     2.57P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.28     5.28    -1.16     0.00     0.58     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     32   43   -4      60.04     5.16    -8.12     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.25     5.28    10.55     0.00     0.25     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           30   38   -8      55.38     5.35   -15.73     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.16R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.85     5.37    -6.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       32   31  -14      51.32     5.13   -12.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.93R    0.08  
Newport_County     31   30   -8      49.91     5.31    -9.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.84R    0.07  
Stockport          33   29  -18      46.57     4.96   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.17R    0.61  
Darlington         32   28   -9      47.98     5.02    -7.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.72R    0.24  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      45.16     5.35   -21.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.47R    1.13  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.80     5.13   -44.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.34R    2.69  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.18     4.91   -42.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.79R   18.05  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.45     4.99   -35.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.33R   15.08  
Bath_City          31   18  -34      32.95     5.05   -43.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.10R   62.05  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10