Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 15 February 2012 at 00:12:42 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 February 2012, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        25   60  +45      87.82     4.46    62.26    55.72    97.49    99.91   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         25   58  +36      87.11     4.21    55.57    43.71    96.30    99.91   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       25   53  +24      75.64     4.79    31.58     0.56     5.92    77.41    93.95    99.89     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   43  +13      66.76     4.83    22.79     0.00     0.10     8.14    37.96    90.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   43  +13      68.51     4.57    25.80     0.00     0.19    13.48    55.30    95.72     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       25   42   +0      60.39     4.82     0.57     0.00     0.00     0.39     4.54    43.64     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.80     4.89    13.22     0.00     0.00     0.76     8.18    62.33     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   35   -4      48.78     4.71   -11.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.04     0.04R    0.00  
Sunderland      25   33   +8      49.93     4.79     6.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.08     0.03R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.55     4.86    -0.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.53     0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         25   30   -4      44.87     4.68    -8.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.87R    0.04  
Fulham          25   30   -5      47.32     4.69    -6.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.23R    0.01  
Stoke           25   30  -14      45.24     4.68   -18.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.91R    0.03  
West_Brom       25   29   -6      43.82     4.67   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     1.64R    0.07  
Aston_Villa     25   28   -5      44.25     4.82    -7.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     1.22R    0.04  
QPR             25   21  -17      32.08     4.33   -28.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.04R   21.37  
Blackburn       25   21  -19      34.24     4.59   -28.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.42R   12.16  
Wolverhampton   25   21  -21      33.49     4.58   -30.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.63R   16.00  
Bolton          25   20  -22      34.25     4.66   -28.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.40R   12.12  
Wigan           25   19  -27      30.78     4.42   -37.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.55R   38.18  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2012, Birmingham vs Hull; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         30   57  +16      83.64     5.60    22.93    38.80    60.44    94.93    69.74P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      31   56  +22      81.47     5.36    29.45    24.50    48.06    92.52    59.74P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          31   53  +14      78.02     5.33    20.67     8.83    21.67    78.63    35.91P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        31   52  +14      77.06     5.53    20.82     7.45    18.37    72.81    32.42P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       30   51  +20      78.93     5.51    28.53    13.24    29.80    83.53    47.91P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          30   51  +11      75.78     5.51    15.17     4.41    12.06    62.89    24.73P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             30   50   +6      72.63     5.39     7.31     1.19     3.89    37.34    10.67P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    30   50   +4      72.18     5.45     4.65     1.17     3.73    34.11     9.26P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         31   49   +3      68.32     5.28     1.44     0.15     0.72    13.32     2.78P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          31   47   +8      68.50     5.32     9.23     0.18     0.82    15.55     3.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United     31   45   +3      66.18     5.36     3.80     0.07     0.31     7.84     1.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        31   42   +5      63.71     5.36     6.60     0.00     0.06     3.47     0.79P    0.05R    0.00  
Derby            30   42   -4      61.70     5.40    -7.28     0.00     0.03     1.32     0.20P    0.16R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   40   -1      59.99     5.30    -3.25     0.00     0.01     0.59     0.13P    0.32R    0.00  
Watford          31   40   -7      58.75     5.29   -10.01     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P    0.76R    0.02  
Barnsley         30   39   -6      57.30     5.39   -11.62     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    1.76R    0.06  
Ipswich          30   37  -10      57.58     5.57   -12.30     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.02P    1.77R    0.04  
Portsmouth       30   35   +1      57.78     5.43     2.48     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.08P    1.26R    0.05  
Peterborough     30   34   -4      55.12     5.81    -5.91     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    5.09R    0.35  
Millwall         31   31  -11      49.09     5.21   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   24.47R    3.03  
Bristol_City     31   31  -19      47.76     5.11   -24.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.48R    5.05  
Coventry         31   25  -16      42.03     5.01   -20.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.76R   27.67  
Nott'm_Forest    30   25  -25      44.19     5.32   -28.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.36R   18.48  
Doncaster        29   24  -24      40.59     5.27   -34.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.75R   45.25  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2012, Bournemouth vs Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        29   67  +34      99.21     5.67    47.42    80.43    96.30   100.00    97.44P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       29   59  +28      91.30     5.71    41.57    15.90    70.33    99.88    80.87P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   57  +14      81.59     5.43    20.14     0.45     6.78    94.42    24.99P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    30   55  +27      85.09     5.54    39.51     2.85    20.68    98.48    49.34P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         29   49  +20      79.65     5.83    31.17     0.30     4.75    89.86    26.90P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       28   48  +19      75.13     6.02    22.64     0.08     1.10    68.29    13.06P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        29   46   -1      68.96     5.85    -1.83     0.00     0.03    20.82     2.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth     31   44   +1      64.44     5.39     0.76     0.00     0.00     5.67     0.95P    0.02R    0.00  
Notts_County    29   40   +4      63.71     5.84     4.56     0.00     0.00     5.51     0.88P    0.12R    0.00  
Brentford       29   40   +2      63.53     5.80     2.35     0.00     0.00     5.16     0.84P    0.10R    0.00  
Colchester      28   39   -3      63.18     6.02    -3.89     0.00     0.01     4.68     0.71P    0.19R    0.00  
Preston         29   39   -6      62.02     5.90    -6.82     0.00     0.00     3.14     0.56P    0.32R    0.00  
Bury            29   39   -9      58.82     5.77   -14.66     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.12P    1.21R    0.01  
Hartlepool      30   38   -1      58.22     5.45    -3.50     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.08P    1.06R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient   29   38   -8      60.05     5.70   -10.06     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.13P    0.89R    0.02  
Oldham          27   35   -4      58.91     6.15    -7.19     0.00     0.00     1.34     0.17P    1.56R    0.02  
Tranmere        30   33   -6      53.14     5.44    -8.42     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    8.47R    0.29  
Yeovil          30   30  -14      48.43     5.39   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.34R    2.88  
Exeter          31   30  -18      46.84     5.18   -23.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.74R    5.01  
Scunthorpe      28   28   -8      51.48     6.12   -10.23     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P   16.92R    1.43  
Wycombe         31   26  -22      41.62     5.20   -30.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.94R   26.79  
Walsall         29   25   -9      44.94     5.60   -14.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   55.03R   10.12  
Chesterfield    30   24  -17      40.66     5.38   -25.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.76R   32.72  
Rochdale        29   24  -23      42.84     5.55   -30.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.32R   20.71  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2012, Aldershot vs Hereford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             30   56  +19      83.93     5.55    28.08    12.79    58.11    97.33    69.56P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           30   56  +15      78.65     5.55    16.04     2.40    19.42    83.28    31.46P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              30   56  +12      80.61     5.63    15.89     4.67    30.04    89.50    45.17P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              28   55  +27      89.90     5.85    42.28    58.18    89.04    99.67    93.17P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         28   55  +17      83.34     6.20    22.52    12.46    50.78    94.75    60.53P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           29   54  +16      82.55     5.76    23.61     9.18    45.88    94.57    60.67P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   46  +12      70.14     5.75    13.41     0.11     1.82    30.93     8.51P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            29   43   +5      70.03     5.88    10.57     0.06     1.64    30.18     9.11P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   29   43   +5      67.49     5.75     6.74     0.03     0.53    16.40     4.27P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            29   42   +6      67.03     5.73     8.52     0.01     0.42    15.00     4.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        29   42   -2      63.22     5.78    -5.61     0.00     0.08     4.31     0.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                29   42   -2      65.97     5.82    -1.21     0.01     0.30    10.30     2.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Gillingham           28   41   +7      69.63     6.13    12.92     0.10     1.86    29.48     9.19P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            29   39   +9      61.89     5.78     8.23     0.00     0.06     3.69     0.84P    0.02R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       30   36  -13      56.18     5.64   -16.02     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    0.90R    0.17  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   35  -15      52.29     5.60   -25.21     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    4.99R    1.39  
Aldershot            28   34   -8      55.94     5.86   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    1.15R    0.26  
Barnet               28   33  -11      53.05     5.80   -18.43     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    3.82R    1.04  
Macclesfield         29   30   -9      49.90     5.60   -13.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.31R    3.16  
Bradford             28   28   -6      48.98     5.80   -11.35     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   12.56R    4.80  
Hereford             30   27  -19      43.57     5.29   -27.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.54R   23.92  
Plymouth             30   24  -21      44.71     5.60   -22.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.54R   17.92  
Dag_&_Red            29   24  -21      44.76     5.76   -25.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.79R   18.39  
Northampton          29   24  -23      43.12     5.59   -30.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.36R   28.95  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 14 February 2012, Lincoln_City vs Braintree_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     31   70  +34      96.16     5.26    42.86    40.93    99.87    55.98P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.14     5.38    47.19    52.43    99.93    66.65P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      89.05     4.97    47.40     6.33    97.96    43.22P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          32   55   -3      73.22     5.22    -5.07     0.00    13.67     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.30     5.21    39.60     0.26    74.21    16.37P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      76.97     5.40    19.12     0.02    37.66     5.63P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.23     5.38    23.83     0.01    28.35     4.76P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.27     5.33     5.89     0.00    10.64     1.05P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      74.07     5.64    17.72     0.01    20.56     2.98P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.27     5.56    16.61     0.01    16.29     2.44P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.27     5.27    -1.17     0.00     0.58     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     32   43   -4      60.01     5.15    -8.16     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.27     5.25    10.60     0.00     0.21     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Tamworth           30   38   -8      55.26     5.33   -15.92     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.85     5.33    -6.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       32   31  -14      51.24     5.15   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.05R    0.06  
Newport_County     31   30   -8      49.97     5.32    -8.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.75R    0.07  
Stockport          33   29  -18      46.55     4.95   -18.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.07R    0.63  
Darlington         32   28   -9      48.06     5.05    -7.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.69R    0.24  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      44.94     5.33   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.26R    1.23  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.80     5.15   -44.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.33R    2.57  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.29     4.89   -42.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.58R   17.07  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.46     4.98   -35.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.24R   14.50  
Bath_City          31   18  -34      32.73     5.01   -43.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.69R   63.64  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10