Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 14 February 2012 at 05:00:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 12 February 2012, Aston_Villa vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        25   60  +45      87.87     4.43    62.37    55.91    97.70    99.94    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         25   58  +36      87.12     4.26    55.56    43.55    96.28    99.91   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       25   53  +24      75.66     4.80    31.60     0.54     5.80    77.25    93.87    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   43  +13      66.78     4.84    22.83     0.00     0.08     8.33    37.92    91.01     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   43  +13      68.47     4.57    25.70     0.00     0.15    13.37    55.41    95.64     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       25   42   +0      60.47     4.82     0.69     0.00     0.00     0.44     4.59    44.16     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   39   +6      61.76     4.87    13.18     0.00     0.00     0.75     8.12    61.95     0.00     0.00  
Norwich         25   35   -4      48.74     4.70   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.07     0.03R    0.00  
Sunderland      25   33   +8      49.93     4.78     6.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.02     0.02R    0.00  
Everton         25   33   -1      51.51     4.87    -0.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     3.44     0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         25   30   -4      44.77     4.68    -8.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.93R    0.02  
Fulham          25   30   -5      47.31     4.71    -5.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.25R    0.01  
Stoke           25   30  -14      45.19     4.67   -18.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.99R    0.05  
West_Brom       25   29   -6      43.82     4.70   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.66R    0.09  
Aston_Villa     25   28   -5      44.31     4.81    -7.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     1.22R    0.05  
QPR             25   21  -17      32.14     4.33   -28.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.39R   20.63  
Blackburn       25   21  -19      34.26     4.61   -28.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.01R   12.23  
Wolverhampton   25   21  -21      33.48     4.56   -30.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.98R   16.17  
Bolton          25   20  -22      34.26     4.66   -28.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.43R   12.10  
Wigan           25   19  -27      30.73     4.40   -37.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.08R   38.65  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 February 2012, Blackpool vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         29   56  +16      84.24     5.87    23.26    41.98    64.13    95.61    72.53P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      30   55  +22      81.65     5.57    29.20    25.29    49.46    93.07    60.94P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       29   50  +20      79.91     5.68    29.41    16.81    37.63    87.89    54.47P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          30   50  +12      76.99     5.55    19.63     6.35    17.79    74.31    32.45P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        30   49  +12      75.63     5.75    19.12     4.59    13.32    65.82    27.04P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             29   49   +6      72.43     5.54     6.59     1.16     4.34    39.35    11.17P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          29   48  +10      74.12     5.73    14.12     2.58     8.06    54.15    20.05P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         30   48   +3      69.10     5.48     2.03     0.23     1.19    19.43     4.14P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    29   47   +3      70.82     5.66     3.99     0.69     2.51    28.85     7.59P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     30   45   +4      67.82     5.58     5.25     0.17     0.81    15.33     3.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          30   44   +6      67.03     5.51     7.48     0.10     0.47    12.11     2.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        30   42   +6      65.24     5.60     7.80     0.03     0.19     7.73     1.88P    0.03R    0.00  
Derby            29   42   -3      62.99     5.58    -6.36     0.02     0.07     3.12     0.48P    0.10R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -1      60.17     5.48    -3.40     0.00     0.01     0.90     0.18P    0.48R    0.00  
Barnsley         29   39   -4      58.41     5.60   -10.07     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.10P    1.25R    0.03  
Watford          30   37   -8      57.02     5.53   -11.13     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P    2.13R    0.05  
Portsmouth       29   35   +2      59.85     5.66     4.43     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.22P    0.66R    0.02  
Peterborough     29   34   -2      56.12     6.01    -4.68     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P    4.27R    0.30  
Ipswich          29   34  -11      55.18     5.78   -14.57     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    5.56R    0.31  
Millwall         30   30  -11      49.27     5.37   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   25.13R    2.80  
Bristol_City     30   30  -19      48.28     5.31   -24.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.44R    4.53  
Nott'm_Forest    29   25  -24      45.14     5.51   -28.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.13R   14.11  
Doncaster        28   24  -22      41.70     5.49   -32.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.61R   34.14  
Coventry         30   22  -17      40.00     5.23   -22.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.19R   43.72  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 February 2012, Exeter vs Sheff_Wed; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        28   64  +33      97.74     5.87    46.61    75.97    92.70   100.00    94.97P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   57  +15      83.36     5.70    21.73     1.66    12.27    96.09    29.86P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       28   56  +27      89.43     5.96    40.28    13.83    52.93    99.61    69.11P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    29   55  +28      86.91     5.70    41.28     7.47    34.05    99.15    57.99P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         28   49  +21      80.86     6.00    31.93     1.01     7.39    92.11    29.42P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      72.90     6.26    20.70     0.04     0.56    52.85     9.56P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        28   45   -1      69.59     6.03    -1.47     0.01     0.09    25.65     3.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth     30   44   +2      66.38     5.61     2.60     0.00     0.00    11.42     2.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       28   40   +3      65.00     6.02     3.50     0.00     0.01     9.06     1.44P    0.06R    0.00  
Hartlepool      29   38   +0      59.48     5.65    -2.78     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.15P    0.81R    0.01  
Bury            28   38   -9      59.59     5.98   -14.11     0.00     0.00     1.53     0.17P    1.24R    0.02  
Notts_County    28   37   +3      62.36     6.06     3.94     0.00     0.00     4.15     0.59P    0.37R    0.01  
Colchester      27   36   -4      61.54     6.21    -4.90     0.00     0.00     3.39     0.50P    0.68R    0.01  
Preston         28   36   -7      60.46     6.18    -7.78     0.00     0.00     2.33     0.37P    1.05R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   28   35   -9      57.68     5.88   -12.14     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.07P    2.91R    0.07  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.29     6.30    -8.16     0.00     0.00     0.94     0.14P    3.69R    0.14  
Tranmere        29   32   -6      53.42     5.69    -8.61     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    9.26R    0.46  
Exeter          30   30  -17      47.85     5.36   -23.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.60R    4.43  
Yeovil          29   27  -15      46.57     5.60   -20.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.42R    8.01  
Wycombe         30   26  -21      43.28     5.44   -28.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.89R   20.78  
Walsall         28   25   -8      46.43     5.83   -12.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.23R    8.25  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      49.81     6.28   -11.37     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   26.76R    3.63  
Rochdale        28   24  -22      44.09     5.77   -29.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.22R   18.12  
Chesterfield    29   23  -17      40.88     5.64   -26.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.79R   36.06  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 13 February 2012, Gillingham vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             30   56  +19      83.88     5.60    28.03    15.04    58.07    97.38    69.21P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           29   56  +16      80.15     5.80    17.22     5.11    29.23    88.59    40.27P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         27   55  +20      84.91     6.38    25.85    22.16    62.15    96.65    70.07P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              29   53  +11      78.86     5.80    14.72     3.34    21.95    83.55    37.51P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              27   52  +24      88.19     6.08    39.15    46.05    82.66    99.24    88.90P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           28   51  +15      81.40     5.97    23.35     7.98    39.40    92.08    55.39P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   43  +11      68.90     5.98    12.92     0.07     1.36    26.06     6.90P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +6      68.85     6.00     7.71     0.08     1.25    24.54     6.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   42   -1      64.38     6.01    -4.92     0.00     0.22     7.61     1.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Gillingham           28   41   +7      69.60     6.14    12.89     0.10     1.77    30.79     9.45P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            28   41   +6      67.47     6.01     8.65     0.03     0.68    18.68     5.03P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            28   40   +4      68.29     6.10     9.41     0.04     1.02    22.82     6.52P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                28   39   -3      64.55     6.07    -1.91     0.01     0.19     8.23     2.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Morecambe            28   36   +8      60.57     6.01     7.65     0.00     0.03     2.85     0.65P    0.17R    0.04  
Bristol_Rovers       29   36  -12      57.09     5.85   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.10P    0.87R    0.20  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   35  -14      53.70     5.90   -24.30     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    4.07R    1.14  
Barnet               27   32  -11      53.09     6.00   -19.08     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    4.83R    1.36  
Aldershot            27   31   -9      54.59     6.09   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    2.85R    0.77  
Macclesfield         28   30   -8      51.18     5.81   -13.07     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    7.45R    2.37  
Bradford             27   27   -6      49.03     6.02   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.41R    5.44  
Hereford             29   27  -18      44.71     5.48   -26.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.24R   18.52  
Dag_&_Red            28   24  -20      45.86     6.01   -24.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.90R   14.92  
Plymouth             29   23  -21      45.43     5.85   -22.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.43R   15.73  
Northampton          28   21  -24      41.73     5.84   -30.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.78R   39.51  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 11 February 2012, Stockport vs Newport_County; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     31   70  +34      96.15     5.27    42.85    41.02    99.88    55.88P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.15     5.33    47.21    52.43    99.95    66.40P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      88.99     4.97    47.37     6.27    98.04    43.06P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.36     5.18    39.69     0.23    75.73    16.65P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      76.93     5.39    19.05     0.04    39.06     5.76P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          31   52   -5      71.16     5.37    -7.78     0.00     8.32     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.23     5.36    23.81     0.01    29.33     4.95P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.22     5.34     5.83     0.00    11.21     1.03P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      73.93     5.61    17.51     0.01    20.58     3.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.31     5.54    16.63     0.00    16.93     2.65P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.37     5.23    -1.05     0.00     0.59     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.26     5.31    10.58     0.00     0.26     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     31   42   -4      60.00     5.39    -8.70     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           30   38   -8      55.48     5.32   -15.56     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.18R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.85     5.31    -6.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       31   30  -14      51.96     5.41   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.00R    0.08  
Stockport          33   29  -18      46.53     4.97   -18.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.48R    0.74  
Darlington         31   28   -7      49.76     5.29    -5.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.39R    0.13  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      45.04     5.34   -21.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.38R    1.45  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.86     5.13   -43.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.40R    3.00  
Newport_County     30   27   -9      48.87     5.52    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.28R    0.31  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.14     4.89   -42.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.38R   19.78  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.50     4.98   -35.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.33R   16.16  
Bath_City          30   18  -33      33.62     5.21   -43.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.99R   58.35  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10