Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 10 February 2012 at 23:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 6 February 2012, Liverpool vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        24   57  +44      86.66     4.71    62.03    54.89    96.77    99.67    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         24   55  +35      86.14     4.47    55.45    44.49    95.97    99.69    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       24   50  +19      73.91     5.06    26.25     0.56     5.78    59.87    86.64    99.16     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         24   43  +15      70.57     4.77    28.90     0.05     1.31    30.67    70.83    97.21     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       24   42   +5      61.85     5.06     5.66     0.00     0.02     1.56     7.80    52.63     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   40  +12      65.28     5.08    22.00     0.01     0.12     6.81    25.02    82.28     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       24   39   +7      62.52     5.02    13.32     0.00     0.02     1.71     9.65    62.40     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      24   33   +9      51.24     5.03     7.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     3.63     0.03R    0.00  
Norwich         24   32   -5      46.69     4.90   -13.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.45R    0.01  
Swansea         24   30   -3      46.68     4.96    -6.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.52R    0.00  
Everton         24   30   -3      49.19     5.04    -3.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.33     0.12R    0.00  
Stoke           24   30  -13      46.35     4.88   -17.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.87R    0.02  
Aston_Villa     24   28   -4      45.18     5.01    -7.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     1.19R    0.02  
Fulham          24   27   -6      45.88     4.94    -6.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.92R    0.03  
West_Brom       24   26  -10      41.49     4.88   -17.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     7.34R    0.42  
QPR             24   21  -16      33.25     4.56   -28.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.71R   12.23  
Wolverhampton   24   21  -17      35.43     4.89   -25.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.76R    6.81  
Bolton          24   20  -21      36.30     4.90   -26.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.04R    5.65  
Blackburn       24   18  -20      32.89     4.81   -28.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.98R   16.65  
Wigan           24   16  -28      28.44     4.62   -40.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.07R   58.15  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 February 2012, Birmingham vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         29   56  +16      84.31     5.86    23.36    43.35    64.47    96.14    72.95P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   52  +20      80.19     5.79    27.42    18.09    38.75    88.49    51.66P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       29   50  +20      79.95     5.70    29.44    17.17    38.04    88.31    55.23P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   50  +13      78.38     5.75    20.71    10.39    25.38    81.17    39.87P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        29   48  +12      76.52     5.98    19.90     6.71    17.67    71.30    31.49P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    29   47   +3      70.84     5.68     4.00     0.72     2.81    29.86     8.01P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             28   46   +3      70.69     5.71     3.46     0.68     2.63    29.01     7.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading          28   45   +8      72.82     5.95    12.59     1.87     6.10    45.90    16.13P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     29   45   +5      69.87     5.80     7.28     0.57     2.06    26.54     6.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Brighton         29   45   +2      66.70     5.68    -0.09     0.10     0.52    11.38     2.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          29   44   +8      68.39     5.70     9.42     0.30     1.27    19.08     5.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby            28   41   -3      63.06     5.82    -6.85     0.03     0.11     3.85     0.59P    0.24R    0.00  
Leicester        29   39   +5      63.52     5.77     6.69     0.02     0.14     5.18     1.21P    0.17R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -1      60.11     5.50    -3.55     0.00     0.01     1.03     0.15P    0.69R    0.02  
Barnsley         29   39   -4      58.52     5.58    -9.88     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.10P    1.63R    0.04  
Watford          29   36   -8      57.28     5.72   -11.30     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.08P    3.01R    0.10  
Portsmouth       28   34   +2      59.78     5.82     3.74     0.00     0.02     1.36     0.33P    1.06R    0.04  
Peterborough     29   34   -2      55.99     5.98    -4.89     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P    5.32R    0.35  
Ipswich          29   34  -11      55.18     5.74   -14.54     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    6.49R    0.39  
Bristol_City     29   30  -16      49.62     5.52   -21.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.27R    3.49  
Millwall         29   29  -11      49.98     5.64   -13.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.45R    3.20  
Doncaster        28   24  -22      41.79     5.52   -32.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.97R   37.41  
Nott'm_Forest    28   24  -24      45.71     5.70   -28.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.27R   14.42  
Coventry         29   22  -15      40.88     5.41   -21.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.41R   40.53  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 February 2012, Bournemouth vs Exeter; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        28   64  +33      97.69     5.86    46.57    76.36    92.34   100.00    94.60P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   57  +16      85.42     5.87    23.76     3.55    21.57    97.83    37.83P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    29   55  +28      86.81     5.71    41.17     7.76    33.61    99.08    56.94P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.30     6.17    38.09    11.12    44.03    99.18    62.77P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         28   49  +21      80.89     6.03    31.98     1.14     7.70    91.63    29.20P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      73.02     6.23    20.90     0.06     0.64    52.52     9.66P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        28   45   -1      69.55     6.04    -1.53     0.00     0.08    24.39     3.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth     29   43   +2      66.68     5.84     2.51     0.00     0.01    12.69     2.30P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       28   40   +3      65.08     6.01     3.56     0.00     0.01     8.94     1.43P    0.06R    0.00  
Bury            28   38   -9      59.53     6.00   -14.25     0.00     0.00     1.49     0.15P    1.22R    0.02  
Notts_County    28   37   +3      62.34     6.03     3.91     0.00     0.00     3.88     0.56P    0.36R    0.00  
Hartlepool      28   37   +0      59.80     5.89    -2.86     0.00     0.00     1.54     0.19P    0.87R    0.02  
Colchester      27   36   -4      61.42     6.23    -5.09     0.00     0.00     3.03     0.47P    0.65R    0.02  
Preston         28   36   -7      60.48     6.12    -7.70     0.00     0.00     2.21     0.38P    0.97R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient   28   35   -9      57.83     5.89   -11.90     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.07P    2.57R    0.05  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.43     6.33    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.12P    3.40R    0.10  
Tranmere        29   32   -6      53.36     5.69    -8.71     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    8.77R    0.46  
Yeovil          29   27  -15      46.53     5.59   -20.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.28R    7.80  
Exeter          29   27  -18      45.69     5.54   -25.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.11R    9.81  
Wycombe         29   26  -18      44.01     5.64   -27.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.23R   17.11  
Walsall         28   25   -8      46.39     5.83   -12.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.77R    8.12  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      50.02     6.30   -11.01     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   24.59R    3.34  
Rochdale        28   24  -22      44.07     5.77   -29.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.19R   17.90  
Chesterfield    29   23  -17      40.88     5.65   -26.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.95R   35.22  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 7 February 2012, Crawley_Town vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Crawley_Town         27   55  +20      84.87     6.34    25.77    19.90    59.49    96.82    68.27P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           28   55  +16      80.77     6.05    17.53     6.11    31.50    89.67    42.34P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   53  +20      84.34     6.04    30.20    16.83    58.79    97.00    70.10P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              27   52  +24      88.22     6.09    39.18    43.02    81.28    99.21    87.87P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   51  +16      82.87     6.19    24.52    11.71    47.17    94.57    61.13P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   50  +10      77.08     6.04    13.53     2.06    14.57    74.85    29.29P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   43  +11      68.85     5.96    12.86     0.05     1.18    26.30     6.92P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +6      68.94     6.02     7.84     0.06     1.18    25.39     6.97P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   42   -1      64.49     5.97    -4.75     0.01     0.18     7.76     1.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           27   41   +8      71.16     6.32    14.19     0.23     3.32    40.78    13.17P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            28   41   +6      67.53     6.00     8.78     0.01     0.59    19.26     5.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe                28   39   -3      64.59     6.04    -1.85     0.00     0.20     8.29     2.04P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            27   37   +2      65.93     6.32     6.23     0.01     0.45    14.05     4.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      62.06     6.25     8.79     0.00     0.09     5.24     1.20P    0.10R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   35  -14      53.58     5.85   -24.50     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.01P    4.00R    1.07  
Bristol_Rovers       28   33  -13      55.38     6.06   -16.91     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P    2.07R    0.57  
Barnet               27   32  -11      53.04     6.03   -19.15     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    5.01R    1.43  
Aldershot            27   31   -9      54.56     6.05   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    2.84R    0.78  
Macclesfield         28   30   -8      51.03     5.81   -13.28     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    7.84R    2.50  
Bradford             27   27   -6      49.08     6.00   -11.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   13.98R    5.26  
Hereford             28   26  -18      44.95     5.69   -26.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.92R   17.89  
Dag_&_Red            28   24  -20      45.77     5.97   -24.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.43R   15.11  
Plymouth             29   23  -21      45.52     5.87   -22.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.88R   15.46  
Northampton          28   21  -24      41.70     5.89   -30.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.88R   39.92  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Fleetwood_Town vs Tamworth; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     31   70  +34      96.08     5.30    42.72    40.39    99.86    55.36P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.19     5.33    47.23    52.78    99.96    67.03P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      89.05     4.95    47.46     6.54    98.15    43.21P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.30     5.24    39.61     0.25    75.32    16.42P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      76.99     5.40    19.14     0.02    39.55     5.83P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          31   52   -5      71.24     5.41    -7.62     0.00     8.61     0.55P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.16     5.36    23.70     0.00    28.57     4.65P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.25     5.35     5.90     0.00    11.23     1.13P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      73.99     5.65    17.61     0.01    20.71     2.91P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.36     5.54    16.70     0.01    17.12     2.81P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.30     5.28    -1.12     0.00     0.57     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.23     5.27    10.55     0.00     0.23     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     31   42   -4      59.96     5.38    -8.77     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           30   38   -8      55.35     5.34   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.91     5.34    -6.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       31   30  -14      51.97     5.37   -11.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.84R    0.07  
Darlington         31   28   -7      49.65     5.27    -5.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.70R    0.23  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      45.11     5.36   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.23R    1.46  
Stockport          32   28  -18      47.13     5.19   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.49R    0.69  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.74     5.10   -44.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.45R    3.20  
Newport_County     29   26   -9      49.01     5.71    -9.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.74R    0.38  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.21     4.93   -42.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.88R   19.88  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.50     5.02   -35.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.31R   16.36  
Bath_City          30   18  -33      33.68     5.23   -43.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.01R   57.73  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10