Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 7 February 2012 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 6 February 2012, Liverpool vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        24   57  +44      86.64     4.70    62.00    53.85    96.96    99.67    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         24   55  +35      86.22     4.45    55.59    45.53    96.18    99.69    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       24   50  +19      73.82     5.06    26.11     0.58     5.43    59.56    86.20    99.17     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         24   43  +15      70.52     4.78    28.85     0.04     1.23    30.56    70.77    97.15     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       24   42   +5      61.84     5.05     5.69     0.00     0.03     1.56     7.74    52.23     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   40  +12      65.37     5.09    22.13     0.01     0.16     7.23    25.60    82.48     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       24   39   +7      62.55     5.01    13.32     0.00     0.01     1.72     9.63    62.79     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      24   33   +9      51.27     5.02     7.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     3.47     0.02R    0.00  
Norwich         24   32   -5      46.67     4.90   -13.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.50R    0.00  
Swansea         24   30   -3      46.54     4.91    -6.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.57R    0.02  
Everton         24   30   -3      49.23     5.06    -3.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.41     0.11R    0.00  
Stoke           24   30  -13      46.39     4.89   -17.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.83R    0.02  
Aston_Villa     24   28   -4      45.16     4.99    -7.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     1.20R    0.03  
Fulham          24   27   -6      45.85     4.92    -6.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.88R    0.02  
West_Brom       24   26  -10      41.51     4.88   -17.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     7.27R    0.47  
QPR             24   21  -16      33.27     4.60   -27.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.62R   12.13  
Wolverhampton   24   21  -17      35.49     4.88   -24.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.54R    6.58  
Bolton          24   20  -21      36.36     4.91   -26.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.69R    5.35  
Blackburn       24   18  -20      32.90     4.82   -28.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.08R   16.57  
Wigan           24   16  -28      28.36     4.56   -40.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.69R   58.81  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Birmingham vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         29   56  +16      84.38     5.86    23.44    44.47    65.90    96.33    74.18P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   52  +20      80.18     5.82    27.34    19.15    40.38    88.46    52.64P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   50  +13      78.43     5.75    20.76    10.93    26.77    81.54    41.02P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        29   48  +12      76.52     5.96    19.87     7.02    18.32    71.59    32.32P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       28   47  +19      78.79     5.91    29.12    13.98    32.08    83.68    49.60P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    29   47   +3      70.76     5.62     3.91     0.71     2.57    29.68     7.69P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             28   46   +3      70.78     5.75     3.57     0.77     2.79    29.99     8.03P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   45   +8      72.93     5.91    12.71     1.93     6.63    46.60    16.80P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     29   45   +5      69.90     5.79     7.37     0.60     2.30    26.93     7.06P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         29   45   +2      66.75     5.68     0.01     0.13     0.61    11.80     2.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          29   44   +8      68.46     5.74     9.52     0.27     1.31    19.80     5.36P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            28   41   -3      63.00     5.81    -6.93     0.02     0.11     3.88     0.70P    0.24R    0.00  
Leicester        29   39   +5      63.40     5.78     6.52     0.02     0.15     5.14     1.25P    0.19R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -1      60.14     5.45    -3.52     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.18P    0.63R    0.02  
Barnsley         29   39   -4      58.47     5.62    -9.95     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.10P    1.58R    0.03  
Watford          29   36   -8      57.24     5.72   -11.38     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P    3.03R    0.13  
Portsmouth       27   34   +3      60.62     5.97     4.04     0.00     0.04     2.19     0.52P    0.83R    0.04  
Peterborough     29   34   -2      56.03     5.94    -4.83     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    5.36R    0.35  
Ipswich          29   34  -11      55.29     5.74   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    6.30R    0.33  
Bristol_City     29   30  -16      49.52     5.52   -21.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.92R    3.62  
Millwall         29   29  -11      49.86     5.65   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    26.06R    3.40  
Doncaster        28   24  -22      41.68     5.50   -32.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.42R   38.36  
Nott'm_Forest    28   24  -24      45.77     5.73   -28.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.69R   14.48  
Coventry         29   22  -15      40.98     5.39   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.73R   39.24  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Carlisle vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        28   64  +33      97.73     5.89    46.63    76.61    92.50    99.99    94.88P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   57  +16      85.41     5.91    23.76     3.91    22.25    97.96    38.85P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    29   55  +28      86.77     5.67    41.11     7.43    33.35    99.09    56.68P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.24     6.22    38.02    10.92    43.92    99.08    62.32P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         28   49  +21      80.79     6.02    31.78     1.07     7.18    91.86    28.78P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      72.90     6.26    20.73     0.05     0.67    53.03     9.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle        28   45   -1      69.54     6.05    -1.54     0.01     0.11    25.45     3.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       28   40   +3      65.11     6.01     3.60     0.00     0.00     9.41     1.46P    0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth     28   40   +0      65.30     5.99     0.87     0.00     0.01     9.36     1.65P    0.05R    0.00  
Bury            28   38   -9      59.46     6.05   -14.32     0.00     0.00     1.59     0.18P    1.45R    0.03  
Notts_County    28   37   +3      62.28     6.05     3.85     0.00     0.00     4.23     0.64P    0.39R    0.00  
Hartlepool      28   37   +0      59.82     5.90    -2.86     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.22P    0.84R    0.02  
Colchester      27   36   -4      61.42     6.22    -5.09     0.00     0.00     3.30     0.51P    0.69R    0.02  
Preston         28   36   -7      60.57     6.13    -7.60     0.00     0.00     2.36     0.41P    0.97R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient   28   35   -9      57.89     5.92   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.11P    2.73R    0.07  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.37     6.27    -8.07     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.11P    3.80R    0.12  
Tranmere        29   32   -6      53.54     5.66    -8.46     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    8.83R    0.40  
Yeovil          29   27  -15      46.65     5.61   -20.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.63R    7.76  
Exeter          28   27  -16      46.84     5.79   -23.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.05R    7.47  
Wycombe         29   26  -18      44.08     5.63   -26.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.08R   17.02  
Walsall         28   25   -8      46.38     5.82   -12.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.29R    8.32  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      50.03     6.32   -11.01     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   25.32R    3.35  
Rochdale        28   24  -22      44.10     5.80   -29.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.28R   18.36  
Chesterfield    29   23  -17      40.74     5.59   -26.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.55R   37.05  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Plymouth vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Cheltenham           27   55  +18      82.24     6.22    19.72    10.39    41.57    92.92    51.18P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   53  +20      84.38     6.02    30.24    17.39    59.39    97.04    70.61P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              27   52  +24      88.11     6.10    39.06    43.18    80.66    99.17    87.32P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      83.04     6.61    23.41    14.31    48.03    93.50    58.29P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   51  +16      82.94     6.17    24.62    12.17    47.91    94.52    61.62P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   50  +10      77.14     6.07    13.60     2.04    15.09    75.12    30.21P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   43  +11      68.81     6.01    12.86     0.09     1.27    25.94     6.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +6      68.87     5.96     7.74     0.09     1.24    24.63     6.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   42   -1      64.48     6.04    -4.77     0.01     0.20     8.06     1.55P    0.01R    0.01  
Gillingham           27   41   +8      71.17     6.32    14.18     0.28     3.28    40.80    13.07P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            28   41   +6      67.61     5.99     8.88     0.02     0.66    19.63     5.25P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                28   39   -3      64.47     6.04    -2.04     0.00     0.18     8.02     1.94P    0.03R    0.01  
Rotherham            27   37   +2      65.88     6.32     6.18     0.02     0.44    14.25     3.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      62.14     6.30     8.98     0.00     0.08     5.55     1.40P    0.08R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   35  -14      53.70     5.86   -24.32     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    3.96R    1.05  
Bristol_Rovers       28   33  -13      55.29     6.07   -17.13     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P    2.29R    0.55  
Barnet               27   32  -11      53.03     6.02   -19.19     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    4.97R    1.44  
Aldershot            27   31   -9      54.60     6.06   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    2.72R    0.76  
Macclesfield         28   30   -8      51.04     5.78   -13.30     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    7.75R    2.37  
Bradford             27   27   -6      49.20     6.06   -11.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.83R    5.09  
Hereford             28   26  -18      44.85     5.67   -26.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.58R   18.48  
Dag_&_Red            28   24  -20      45.89     5.96   -24.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   31.45R   14.49  
Plymouth             29   23  -21      45.38     5.84   -22.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.73R   15.92  
Northampton          28   21  -24      41.73     5.90   -30.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.60R   39.82  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Fleetwood_Town vs Tamworth; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     31   70  +34      96.16     5.27    42.88    40.86    99.88    55.87P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.18     5.35    47.25    52.34    99.94    66.85P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      89.03     5.00    47.42     6.52    97.90    43.39P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.25     5.25    39.48     0.22    74.88    15.99P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      76.96     5.40    19.09     0.03    39.38     5.85P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          31   52   -5      71.26     5.40    -7.62     0.00     8.60     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.22     5.35    23.85     0.02    29.25     4.91P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.19     5.37     5.76     0.00    11.33     1.05P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      73.91     5.63    17.46     0.01    20.40     2.88P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.33     5.57    16.68     0.00    17.44     2.65P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.34     5.29    -1.07     0.00     0.63     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.25     5.25    10.56     0.00     0.25     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     31   42   -4      59.86     5.36    -8.97     0.00     0.10     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Tamworth           30   38   -8      55.45     5.34   -15.66     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.96     5.32    -5.94     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.14R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       31   30  -14      52.02     5.41   -11.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.94R    0.09  
Darlington         31   28   -7      49.73     5.24    -5.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.38R    0.16  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      44.90     5.32   -21.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.33R    1.50  
Stockport          32   28  -18      47.10     5.18   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.62R    0.69  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.76     5.14   -44.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.68R    3.08  
Newport_County     29   26   -9      48.99     5.75    -9.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.72R    0.40  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.35     4.94   -41.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.87R   19.25  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.56     5.00   -35.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.06R   16.24  
Bath_City          30   18  -33      33.62     5.21   -43.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.07R   58.60  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10