Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 6 February 2012 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 5 February 2012, Chelsea vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        24   57  +44      86.61     4.70    61.99    53.88    96.43    99.69    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         24   55  +35      86.18     4.47    55.56    45.42    95.86    99.60    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       23   49  +19      73.92     5.25    25.80     0.65     6.18    59.07    84.87    98.83     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         24   43  +15      70.53     4.80    28.86     0.05     1.35    30.23    69.65    96.85     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       24   42   +5      61.93     5.05     5.78     0.00     0.02     1.53     7.69    51.34     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   40  +12      65.34     5.06    22.04     0.00     0.11     6.89    24.92    81.69     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       23   38   +7      63.23     5.20    13.78     0.00     0.05     2.97    12.82    65.66     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      24   33   +9      51.26     5.04     7.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     3.32     0.03R    0.00  
Norwich         24   32   -5      46.66     4.90   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.49R    0.01  
Swansea         24   30   -3      46.64     4.95    -6.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.54R    0.01  
Everton         24   30   -3      49.18     5.05    -3.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.12     0.11R    0.00  
Stoke           24   30  -13      46.24     4.88   -17.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.22     0.82R    0.02  
Aston_Villa     24   28   -4      45.25     5.01    -7.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     1.11R    0.03  
Fulham          24   27   -6      45.87     4.92    -6.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.84R    0.01  
West_Brom       24   26  -10      41.51     4.85   -17.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.06R    0.44  
QPR             24   21  -16      33.25     4.61   -28.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.96R   12.28  
Wolverhampton   24   21  -17      35.49     4.85   -24.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.33R    6.56  
Bolton          24   20  -21      36.34     4.90   -26.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.97R    5.40  
Blackburn       24   18  -20      32.92     4.81   -28.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.04R   16.23  
Wigan           24   16  -28      28.37     4.57   -40.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.69R   59.01  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Birmingham vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         29   56  +16      84.39     5.85    23.46    44.57    66.15    96.25    74.31P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   52  +20      80.14     5.79    27.32    18.63    39.76    88.43    52.33P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   50  +13      78.46     5.77    20.78    11.15    27.02    81.57    41.25P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        29   48  +12      76.63     5.95    20.07     7.38    18.90    72.19    32.87P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       28   47  +19      78.75     5.92    29.08    13.76    31.90    83.66    49.43P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    29   47   +3      70.85     5.66     4.03     0.78     2.73    30.47     8.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull             28   46   +3      70.66     5.72     3.40     0.80     2.77    29.21     7.99P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   45   +8      72.74     5.93    12.48     1.89     6.27    45.62    16.07P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     29   45   +5      69.88     5.78     7.29     0.56     2.34    27.03     7.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Brighton         29   45   +2      66.77     5.69     0.04     0.12     0.60    11.86     2.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          29   44   +8      68.35     5.73     9.37     0.31     1.25    19.61     5.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby            28   41   -3      63.10     5.78    -6.80     0.02     0.12     3.84     0.61P    0.25R    0.00  
Leicester        29   39   +5      63.39     5.80     6.52     0.03     0.12     5.11     1.23P    0.18R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -1      60.23     5.47    -3.39     0.00     0.01     1.04     0.17P    0.59R    0.01  
Barnsley         29   39   -4      58.60     5.60    -9.78     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.08P    1.41R    0.04  
Watford          29   36   -8      57.32     5.72   -11.28     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.06P    2.87R    0.09  
Portsmouth       27   34   +3      60.69     6.07     4.11     0.00     0.05     2.60     0.57P    0.82R    0.03  
Peterborough     29   34   -2      55.99     5.98    -4.89     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P    5.35R    0.34  
Ipswich          29   34  -11      55.22     5.80   -14.49     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    6.58R    0.38  
Bristol_City     29   30  -16      49.46     5.53   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.15R    3.68  
Millwall         29   29  -11      49.92     5.64   -14.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.54R    3.36  
Doncaster        28   24  -22      41.65     5.49   -32.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.37R   37.94  
Nott'm_Forest    28   24  -24      45.75     5.72   -28.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.81R   14.44  
Coventry         29   22  -15      40.95     5.40   -21.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.06R   39.70  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Carlisle vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        28   64  +33      97.71     5.87    46.60    76.28    92.37    99.99    94.75P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   57  +16      85.46     5.87    23.81     3.87    21.68    97.89    38.44P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    29   55  +28      86.84     5.72    41.19     7.70    33.77    99.12    57.13P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.33     6.15    38.26    11.01    44.01    99.32    62.66P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         28   49  +21      80.87     5.97    31.97     1.08     7.41    92.20    28.47P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      73.03     6.28    20.89     0.06     0.64    53.56     9.84P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        28   45   -1      69.53     6.07    -1.54     0.00     0.11    25.12     3.54P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       28   40   +3      65.00     6.01     3.50     0.00     0.00     8.87     1.34P    0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth     28   40   +0      65.21     6.03     0.66     0.00     0.01     9.17     1.66P    0.07R    0.00  
Bury            28   38   -9      59.47     6.01   -14.33     0.00     0.00     1.57     0.15P    1.43R    0.02  
Notts_County    28   37   +3      62.42     6.03     4.05     0.00     0.00     4.16     0.65P    0.32R    0.00  
Hartlepool      28   37   +0      59.81     5.90    -2.89     0.00     0.00     1.64     0.23P    0.85R    0.01  
Colchester      27   36   -4      61.48     6.22    -5.01     0.00     0.01     3.34     0.52P    0.71R    0.01  
Preston         28   36   -7      60.66     6.16    -7.48     0.00     0.00     2.51     0.42P    0.93R    0.03  
Leyton_Orient   28   35   -9      57.80     5.93   -11.97     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.05P    2.86R    0.06  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.33     6.30    -8.14     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.14P    3.66R    0.12  
Tranmere        29   32   -6      53.44     5.67    -8.59     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    9.04R    0.41  
Yeovil          29   27  -15      46.59     5.60   -20.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.08R    7.81  
Exeter          28   27  -16      46.86     5.74   -23.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.37R    7.46  
Wycombe         29   26  -18      43.92     5.59   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.94R   17.72  
Walsall         28   25   -8      46.37     5.80   -12.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.92R    8.04  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      50.10     6.37   -10.91     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   25.19R    3.29  
Rochdale        28   24  -22      44.04     5.75   -29.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.21R   18.27  
Chesterfield    29   23  -17      40.75     5.60   -26.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.37R   36.75  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Plymouth vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Cheltenham           27   55  +18      82.34     6.19    19.87    10.33    42.15    93.18    52.17P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   53  +20      84.30     6.04    30.07    17.17    59.10    96.92    69.97P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              27   52  +24      88.12     6.12    39.02    43.14    80.81    99.18    87.72P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      83.11     6.58    23.54    14.67    48.68    93.71    58.76P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   51  +16      82.91     6.16    24.60    12.22    47.55    94.58    61.64P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   50  +10      76.99     6.06    13.38     1.97    14.40    74.25    29.39P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   43  +11      68.86     5.96    12.92     0.07     1.19    26.22     6.73P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +6      68.90     6.01     7.84     0.08     1.22    25.09     6.70P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   42   -1      64.56     6.02    -4.67     0.01     0.19     7.95     1.48P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           27   41   +8      71.16     6.34    14.19     0.29     3.33    40.78    13.17P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            28   41   +6      67.54     5.99     8.71     0.02     0.64    19.44     5.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                28   39   -3      64.62     6.08    -1.77     0.01     0.20     8.61     2.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            27   37   +2      65.87     6.34     6.11     0.01     0.44    13.92     3.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      62.00     6.31     8.74     0.01     0.10     5.37     1.27P    0.09R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   35  -14      53.63     5.85   -24.39     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    4.01R    1.08  
Bristol_Rovers       28   33  -13      55.43     6.08   -16.85     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    2.21R    0.55  
Barnet               27   32  -11      53.07     6.02   -19.13     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    4.90R    1.37  
Aldershot            27   31   -9      54.53     6.03   -12.57     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    2.86R    0.76  
Macclesfield         28   30   -8      51.03     5.77   -13.25     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     7.71R    2.41  
Bradford             27   27   -6      49.22     5.99   -11.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.70R    5.05  
Hereford             28   26  -18      44.93     5.65   -26.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.84R   17.94  
Dag_&_Red            28   24  -20      45.76     5.96   -24.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.44R   15.12  
Plymouth             29   23  -21      45.38     5.90   -22.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.60R   16.10  
Northampton          28   21  -24      41.68     5.83   -30.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.60R   39.60  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Fleetwood_Town vs Tamworth; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     31   70  +34      96.17     5.29    42.87    40.54    99.86    55.97P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.21     5.33    47.28    52.95    99.94    66.85P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      89.02     4.99    47.43     6.24    98.00    42.97P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.26     5.23    39.56     0.21    75.13    16.25P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      77.03     5.41    19.18     0.02    40.11     5.95P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          31   52   -5      71.29     5.39    -7.54     0.00     8.66     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.17     5.39    23.72     0.02    29.21     4.89P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.26     5.32     5.89     0.00    11.33     1.13P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      73.88     5.63    17.42     0.01    20.40     2.91P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.17     5.55    16.42     0.01    16.45     2.48P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.33     5.27    -1.04     0.00     0.58     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.25     5.27    10.56     0.00     0.26     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     31   42   -4      59.88     5.32    -8.93     0.00     0.06     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           30   38   -8      55.40     5.35   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.88     5.31    -6.11     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       31   30  -14      52.00     5.39   -11.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.73R    0.06  
Darlington         31   28   -7      49.81     5.23    -4.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.25R    0.15  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      45.04     5.35   -21.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.60R    1.43  
Stockport          32   28  -18      47.11     5.20   -18.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.63R    0.67  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.81     5.10   -44.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.06R    3.08  
Newport_County     29   26   -9      49.00     5.69    -9.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.44R    0.33  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.24     4.90   -42.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.09R   19.50  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.47     4.99   -35.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.68R   16.70  
Bath_City          30   18  -33      33.69     5.22   -43.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.18R   58.06  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10