Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 5 February 2012 at 22:52:34 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 5 February 2012, Chelsea vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        24   57  +44      86.60     4.69    61.91    53.77    96.35    99.67    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         24   55  +35      86.20     4.46    55.48    45.41    95.76    99.69    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       23   49  +19      74.09     5.26    26.03     0.76     6.49    60.17    85.58    98.86     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         24   43  +15      70.54     4.76    28.82     0.05     1.24    29.38    69.69    96.96     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       24   42   +5      61.93     5.06     5.81     0.00     0.01     1.58     7.65    51.37     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   40  +12      65.29     5.10    22.04     0.01     0.12     6.65    24.44    81.37     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       23   38   +7      63.19     5.24    13.73     0.00     0.02     2.87    12.59    65.58     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      24   33   +9      51.28     5.02     7.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     3.32     0.01R    0.00  
Norwich         24   32   -5      46.60     4.90   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.52R    0.01  
Swansea         24   30   -3      46.60     4.95    -6.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.54R    0.01  
Everton         24   30   -3      49.18     5.02    -3.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.25     0.10R    0.00  
Stoke           24   30  -13      46.30     4.90   -17.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.83R    0.02  
Aston_Villa     24   28   -4      45.24     5.00    -7.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     1.16R    0.03  
Fulham          24   27   -6      45.94     4.95    -6.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.87R    0.02  
West_Brom       24   26  -10      41.52     4.84   -17.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     7.14R    0.35  
QPR             24   21  -16      33.29     4.57   -27.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.09R   11.95  
Wolverhampton   24   21  -17      35.46     4.87   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.60R    6.70  
Bolton          24   20  -21      36.27     4.93   -26.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.77R    5.65  
Blackburn       24   18  -20      32.86     4.83   -28.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.85R   16.75  
Wigan           24   16  -28      28.39     4.57   -40.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.51R   58.52  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Birmingham vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         29   56  +16      84.45     5.84    23.52    44.61    66.47    96.47    74.52P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   52  +20      80.13     5.83    27.31    18.80    39.91    88.19    52.23P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   50  +13      78.47     5.78    20.76    11.37    27.27    81.59    41.35P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        29   48  +12      76.62     5.96    20.03     7.22    18.65    72.20    32.64P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       28   47  +19      78.63     5.92    28.95    13.41    31.04    83.08    48.55P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    29   47   +3      70.80     5.66     3.96     0.75     2.83    30.18     8.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull             28   46   +3      70.72     5.73     3.47     0.73     2.76    29.66     8.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading          28   45   +8      72.96     5.92    12.77     2.01     6.47    47.29    16.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United     29   45   +5      69.79     5.80     7.14     0.57     2.26    26.38     6.98P    0.00     0.00  
Brighton         29   45   +2      66.72     5.68    -0.05     0.11     0.54    11.68     2.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          29   44   +8      68.42     5.73     9.46     0.36     1.43    19.40     5.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby            28   41   -3      63.11     5.82    -6.79     0.02     0.13     3.96     0.71P    0.23R    0.00  
Leicester        29   39   +5      63.45     5.76     6.59     0.02     0.16     5.14     1.26P    0.18R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -1      60.18     5.48    -3.48     0.00     0.01     1.06     0.15P    0.62R    0.01  
Barnsley         29   39   -4      58.37     5.60   -10.09     0.00     0.01     0.55     0.10P    1.71R    0.04  
Watford          29   36   -8      57.28     5.72   -11.31     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.06P    3.05R    0.11  
Portsmouth       27   34   +3      60.65     6.07     4.08     0.01     0.06     2.32     0.54P    0.92R    0.03  
Peterborough     29   34   -2      55.96     5.98    -4.93     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    5.61R    0.41  
Ipswich          29   34  -11      55.26     5.73   -14.42     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    6.55R    0.36  
Bristol_City     29   30  -16      49.51     5.53   -21.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.72R    3.85  
Millwall         29   29  -11      49.81     5.59   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.24R    3.30  
Doncaster        28   24  -22      41.78     5.53   -32.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.62R   37.79  
Nott'm_Forest    28   24  -24      45.78     5.70   -28.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.58R   14.36  
Coventry         29   22  -15      41.00     5.38   -20.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.95R   39.74  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Carlisle vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        28   64  +33      97.60     5.89    46.43    75.77    92.02   100.00    94.51P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   57  +16      85.45     5.90    23.84     4.00    21.96    97.87    38.80P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    29   55  +28      86.81     5.72    41.12     7.62    33.77    99.08    57.00P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.32     6.20    38.15    11.49    44.24    99.16    62.60P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         28   49  +21      80.78     5.99    31.81     1.05     7.28    91.89    28.74P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      72.77     6.26    20.56     0.07     0.59    51.92     9.38P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        28   45   -1      69.56     6.08    -1.52     0.01     0.12    25.64     3.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       28   40   +3      65.04     6.08     3.51     0.00     0.01     9.48     1.57P    0.08R    0.00  
Bournemouth     28   40   +0      65.25     6.02     0.71     0.00     0.01     9.60     1.73P    0.08R    0.00  
Bury            28   38   -9      59.48     5.99   -14.29     0.00     0.00     1.54     0.14P    1.36R    0.02  
Notts_County    28   37   +3      62.44     6.02     4.05     0.00     0.00     4.36     0.67P    0.30R    0.00  
Hartlepool      28   37   +0      59.88     5.89    -2.74     0.00     0.00     1.73     0.26P    0.84R    0.02  
Colchester      27   36   -4      61.49     6.26    -5.00     0.00     0.00     3.41     0.48P    0.78R    0.01  
Preston         28   36   -7      60.69     6.19    -7.40     0.00     0.00     2.63     0.44P    1.01R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   28   35   -9      57.89     5.92   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.09P    2.64R    0.04  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.29     6.26    -8.13     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.12P    3.66R    0.12  
Tranmere        29   32   -6      53.44     5.68    -8.58     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    9.18R    0.46  
Yeovil          29   27  -15      46.73     5.60   -20.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.29R    7.47  
Exeter          28   27  -16      46.85     5.74   -23.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   46.94R    7.43  
Wycombe         29   26  -18      44.06     5.64   -26.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.36R   17.36  
Walsall         28   25   -8      46.41     5.82   -12.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   46.03R    8.20  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      49.83     6.27   -11.33     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00    26.29R    3.66  
Rochdale        28   24  -22      44.14     5.80   -29.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.81R   18.02  
Chesterfield    29   23  -17      40.76     5.59   -26.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.34R   37.20  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Plymouth vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Cheltenham           27   55  +18      82.25     6.23    19.74    10.27    41.74    92.70    51.49P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   53  +20      84.26     6.02    30.06    16.84    58.79    96.91    69.94P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              27   52  +24      88.20     6.13    39.15    43.80    81.16    99.19    87.83P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      83.13     6.55    23.57    14.37    48.17    93.83    58.55P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   51  +16      82.97     6.19    24.66    12.26    48.07    94.63    61.89P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   50  +10      77.07     6.02    13.49     1.97    14.51    74.86    29.51P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   43  +11      68.91     5.96    12.97     0.06     1.24    26.57     6.98P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +6      68.90     6.00     7.79     0.10     1.31    24.79     6.83P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   42   -1      64.53     5.99    -4.71     0.01     0.18     8.03     1.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Gillingham           27   41   +8      71.13     6.34    14.15     0.26     3.44    40.79    13.37P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            28   41   +6      67.58     5.98     8.86     0.03     0.61    19.46     5.05P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                28   39   -3      64.61     6.02    -1.83     0.01     0.21     8.37     2.11P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham            27   37   +2      65.81     6.33     6.06     0.02     0.50    13.84     3.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      61.95     6.25     8.67     0.01     0.07     5.25     1.12P    0.09R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   35  -14      53.70     5.84   -24.32     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    3.91R    1.03  
Bristol_Rovers       28   33  -13      55.23     6.03   -17.16     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P    2.15R    0.55  
Barnet               27   32  -11      53.08     5.99   -19.10     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P    4.88R    1.30  
Aldershot            27   31   -9      54.62     6.08   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    2.83R    0.78  
Macclesfield         28   30   -8      51.08     5.81   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    7.62R    2.55  
Bradford             27   27   -6      49.12     5.99   -11.71     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   13.74R    5.28  
Hereford             28   26  -18      44.80     5.70   -26.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.83R   18.81  
Dag_&_Red            28   24  -20      45.73     5.96   -24.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.73R   15.16  
Plymouth             29   23  -21      45.52     5.85   -22.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.85R   15.41  
Northampton          28   21  -24      41.78     5.86   -30.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.35R   39.10  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Fleetwood_Town vs Tamworth; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     31   70  +34      96.12     5.29    42.78    40.58    99.85    55.71P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.19     5.34    47.26    52.85    99.96    67.01P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      88.98     5.01    47.35     6.30    97.95    42.94P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.19     5.23    39.41     0.22    74.73    16.27P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      76.91     5.40    19.04     0.03    38.79     5.75P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          31   52   -5      71.30     5.40    -7.54     0.00     8.73     0.54P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.23     5.39    23.83     0.01    29.45     5.05P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.21     5.34     5.78     0.00    11.09     1.07P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      74.01     5.66    17.66     0.00    21.14     2.97P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.26     5.55    16.61     0.00    17.25     2.59P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.34     5.27    -1.04     0.00     0.63     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.31     5.29    10.67     0.00     0.33     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     31   42   -4      59.94     5.37    -8.81     0.00     0.09     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           30   38   -8      55.37     5.37   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.82     5.33    -6.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       31   30  -14      52.07     5.39   -11.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.87R    0.07  
Darlington         31   28   -7      49.69     5.24    -5.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.42R    0.13  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      45.03     5.33   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.41R    1.49  
Stockport          32   28  -18      47.09     5.14   -18.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.28R    0.62  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.85     5.16   -43.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.84R    3.10  
Newport_County     29   26   -9      49.14     5.72    -9.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.38R    0.34  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.18     4.90   -42.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.91R   19.47  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.38     4.96   -35.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.59R   16.79  
Bath_City          30   18  -33      33.72     5.20   -43.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.00R   57.98  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10