Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 5 February 2012 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Arsenal vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        24   57  +44      86.62     4.69    61.95    51.78    96.42    99.62    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         23   54  +35      86.55     4.71    55.33    47.41    95.50    99.45    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       23   49  +19      74.02     5.24    25.97     0.68     5.85    58.83    85.93    99.06     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         23   42  +15      70.83     5.01    28.60     0.13     2.04    31.64    71.30    97.42     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   40  +12      65.27     5.08    21.99     0.00     0.13     6.58    24.22    83.49     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       23   39   +4      60.52     5.30     5.11     0.00     0.01     1.04     5.51    43.33     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       23   38   +7      63.21     5.23    13.77     0.00     0.06     2.84    13.02    69.50     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      24   33   +9      51.27     5.03     7.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     3.92     0.03R    0.00  
Norwich         24   32   -5      46.69     4.89   -13.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.48R    0.01  
Swansea         24   30   -3      46.61     4.94    -6.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.57R    0.00  
Everton         24   30   -3      49.22     5.06    -3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.49     0.12R    0.00  
Stoke           24   30  -13      46.31     4.90   -17.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.87R    0.01  
Aston_Villa     23   28   -3      46.34     5.24    -7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.81R    0.03  
Fulham          24   27   -6      45.86     4.92    -6.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.86R    0.02  
West_Brom       24   26  -10      41.42     4.87   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     7.39R    0.44  
QPR             24   21  -16      33.24     4.57   -27.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.08R   12.09  
Wolverhampton   24   21  -17      35.51     4.85   -24.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.02R    6.45  
Bolton          24   20  -21      36.37     4.90   -26.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.75R    5.37  
Blackburn       24   18  -20      32.88     4.79   -28.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.44R   16.63  
Wigan           24   16  -28      28.40     4.56   -40.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.58R   58.94  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Birmingham vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         29   56  +16      84.32     5.86    23.35    44.41    65.62    96.16    73.91P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   52  +20      80.19     5.85    27.42    19.10    40.14    88.42    52.50P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   50  +13      78.40     5.76    20.72    10.96    26.56    81.32    40.75P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        29   48  +12      76.58     5.99    19.97     7.06    18.74    71.67    32.73P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       28   47  +19      78.78     5.89    29.13    13.82    32.16    83.63    49.75P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    29   47   +3      70.81     5.67     3.97     0.77     2.85    30.16     8.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull             28   46   +3      70.67     5.72     3.39     0.76     2.77    29.14     7.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading          28   45   +8      72.89     5.91    12.66     2.00     6.52    46.80    16.76P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     29   45   +5      69.98     5.82     7.43     0.69     2.34    27.49     7.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Brighton         29   45   +2      66.71     5.68    -0.09     0.12     0.56    11.49     2.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          29   44   +8      68.36     5.71     9.38     0.27     1.35    19.53     5.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Derby            28   41   -3      63.04     5.85    -6.88     0.01     0.13     4.00     0.68P    0.25R    0.00  
Leicester        29   39   +5      63.38     5.79     6.50     0.02     0.15     5.19     1.30P    0.20R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -1      60.18     5.49    -3.45     0.01     0.02     1.15     0.19P    0.67R    0.01  
Barnsley         29   39   -4      58.50     5.62    -9.91     0.00     0.01     0.64     0.12P    1.66R    0.05  
Watford          29   36   -8      57.31     5.74   -11.23     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.09P    3.11R    0.12  
Portsmouth       27   34   +3      60.71     5.98     4.16     0.01     0.06     2.37     0.53P    0.79R    0.03  
Peterborough     29   34   -2      55.97     5.96    -4.91     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P    5.33R    0.31  
Ipswich          29   34  -11      55.21     5.78   -14.47     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    6.44R    0.33  
Bristol_City     29   30  -16      49.55     5.53   -21.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   29.76R    3.62  
Millwall         29   29  -11      49.93     5.63   -14.07     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   25.41R    3.14  
Doncaster        28   24  -22      41.58     5.51   -32.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.83R   38.87  
Nott'm_Forest    28   24  -24      45.77     5.72   -28.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.78R   14.34  
Coventry         29   22  -15      40.97     5.42   -20.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.74R   39.18  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Carlisle vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        28   64  +33      97.70     5.89    46.56    76.01    92.28    99.99    94.61P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   57  +16      85.56     5.91    24.01     4.03    22.33    98.00    39.22P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    29   55  +28      86.81     5.74    41.11     7.63    33.30    99.04    56.56P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.36     6.19    38.21    11.13    44.21    99.25    62.69P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         28   49  +21      80.81     6.00    31.83     1.13     7.12    92.03    28.31P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      72.92     6.26    20.78     0.07     0.63    53.36     9.82P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        28   45   -1      69.48     6.06    -1.61     0.01     0.11    25.04     3.54P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       28   40   +3      64.98     6.01     3.40     0.00     0.01     9.01     1.34P    0.08R    0.00  
Bournemouth     28   40   +0      65.27     6.03     0.81     0.00     0.00     9.58     1.74P    0.05R    0.00  
Bury            28   38   -9      59.44     5.97   -14.33     0.00     0.00     1.43     0.16P    1.39R    0.02  
Notts_County    28   37   +3      62.37     6.08     3.96     0.00     0.00     4.25     0.68P    0.32R    0.00  
Hartlepool      28   37   +0      59.89     5.93    -2.75     0.00     0.00     1.74     0.20P    0.85R    0.02  
Colchester      27   36   -4      61.41     6.21    -5.13     0.00     0.00     3.19     0.47P    0.74R    0.01  
Preston         28   36   -7      60.44     6.18    -7.83     0.00     0.00     2.37     0.41P    1.08R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient   28   35   -9      57.88     5.90   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.09P    2.58R    0.10  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.39     6.32    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.15P    3.51R    0.13  
Tranmere        29   32   -6      53.40     5.72    -8.63     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    9.35R    0.42  
Yeovil          29   27  -15      46.65     5.61   -20.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.68R    7.81  
Exeter          28   27  -16      46.82     5.73   -23.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.14R    7.62  
Wycombe         29   26  -18      43.92     5.64   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.95R   18.12  
Walsall         28   25   -8      46.43     5.80   -12.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.17R    8.21  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      50.08     6.30   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   25.22R    3.30  
Rochdale        28   24  -22      44.13     5.81   -29.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.94R   18.24  
Chesterfield    29   23  -17      40.86     5.60   -26.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.95R   36.00  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Plymouth vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Cheltenham           27   55  +18      82.28     6.20    19.78    10.37    41.62    93.05    51.48P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   53  +20      84.28     6.05    30.08    17.24    59.04    96.74    70.02P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              27   52  +24      88.06     6.09    38.94    43.17    80.77    99.20    87.46P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      83.08     6.52    23.48    14.05    48.54    93.79    58.42P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   51  +16      82.97     6.19    24.74    12.65    48.16    94.58    62.46P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   50  +10      77.06     6.04    13.45     2.04    14.60    74.92    29.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   43  +11      68.82     5.96    12.84     0.07     1.18    26.23     6.70P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +6      68.89     6.02     7.81     0.07     1.21    24.69     6.61P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   42   -1      64.53     5.95    -4.68     0.01     0.19     7.80     1.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           27   41   +8      71.17     6.33    14.21     0.27     3.32    40.84    13.26P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            28   41   +6      67.59     6.03     8.82     0.03     0.66    19.48     5.13P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                28   39   -3      64.61     6.06    -1.81     0.02     0.18     8.45     2.04P    0.03R    0.00  
Rotherham            27   37   +2      65.83     6.31     6.11     0.02     0.44    14.04     3.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      62.14     6.24     8.94     0.00     0.10     5.36     1.26P    0.06R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   35  -14      53.67     5.87   -24.31     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    4.00R    1.09  
Bristol_Rovers       28   33  -13      55.20     6.06   -17.24     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.08P    2.31R    0.57  
Barnet               27   32  -11      53.02     6.00   -19.21     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    4.94R    1.36  
Aldershot            27   31   -9      54.62     6.04   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P    2.65R    0.74  
Macclesfield         28   30   -8      51.04     5.81   -13.28     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    7.85R    2.48  
Bradford             27   27   -6      49.18     6.03   -11.63     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   13.93R    5.07  
Hereford             28   26  -18      44.82     5.65   -26.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.59R   18.47  
Dag_&_Red            28   24  -20      45.83     5.98   -24.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    32.06R   14.84  
Plymouth             29   23  -21      45.48     5.84   -22.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.12R   15.52  
Northampton          28   21  -24      41.73     5.91   -30.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.44R   39.84  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Fleetwood_Town vs Tamworth; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     31   70  +34      96.20     5.27    42.93    40.80    99.90    55.88P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.20     5.38    47.26    52.44    99.96    66.74P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      89.04     4.99    47.44     6.52    98.08    43.28P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.26     5.24    39.52     0.20    75.11    16.33P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      76.85     5.39    18.96     0.02    38.55     5.53P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          31   52   -5      71.27     5.40    -7.57     0.00     8.78     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.20     5.38    23.77     0.01    29.39     4.96P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.16     5.37     5.74     0.00    11.39     1.06P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      73.88     5.60    17.45     0.01    20.25     2.86P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.31     5.57    16.64     0.00    17.56     2.80P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.39     5.27    -0.98     0.00     0.66     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.23     5.31    10.56     0.00     0.26     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     31   42   -4      59.89     5.34    -8.91     0.00     0.08     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           30   38   -8      55.35     5.30   -15.76     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.93     5.29    -6.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       31   30  -14      51.99     5.39   -11.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.83R    0.09  
Darlington         31   28   -7      49.73     5.28    -5.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.58R    0.14  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      45.09     5.34   -21.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.49R    1.35  
Stockport          32   28  -18      47.09     5.19   -18.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.64R    0.70  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.87     5.15   -43.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.37R    3.08  
Newport_County     29   26   -9      49.10     5.73    -9.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.47R    0.40  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.20     4.90   -42.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.15R   19.46  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.43     4.98   -35.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.99R   16.75  
Bath_City          30   18  -33      33.65     5.25   -43.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.11R   58.03  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10