Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 5 February 2012 at 16:22:09 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Arsenal vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        24   57  +44      86.70     4.68    62.09    52.50    96.43    99.64    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         23   54  +35      86.55     4.70    55.36    46.74    95.32    99.51    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       23   49  +19      74.07     5.27    25.97     0.65     6.21    58.52    85.62    99.07     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         23   42  +15      70.87     5.00    28.69     0.11     1.87    31.88    71.57    97.59     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   40  +12      65.31     5.11    22.04     0.00     0.14     6.61    24.89    83.59     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       23   39   +4      60.43     5.27     4.95     0.00     0.00     0.95     5.06    42.66     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       23   38   +7      63.21     5.23    13.77     0.00     0.04     2.89    12.83    69.66     0.00     0.00  
Sunderland      24   33   +9      51.29     5.06     7.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     4.01     0.02R    0.00  
Norwich         24   32   -5      46.69     4.93   -13.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.51R    0.00  
Swansea         24   30   -3      46.56     4.98    -6.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.55R    0.00  
Everton         24   30   -3      49.26     5.06    -2.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.51     0.12R    0.00  
Stoke           24   30  -13      46.25     4.88   -17.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.81R    0.01  
Aston_Villa     23   28   -3      46.32     5.17    -7.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.83R    0.02  
Fulham          24   27   -6      45.86     4.94    -6.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.83R    0.02  
West_Brom       24   26  -10      41.51     4.84   -17.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     6.96R    0.37  
QPR             24   21  -16      33.21     4.55   -28.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.43R   12.36  
Wolverhampton   24   21  -17      35.52     4.87   -24.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.20R    6.42  
Bolton          24   20  -21      36.35     4.91   -26.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.82R    5.58  
Blackburn       24   18  -20      32.84     4.81   -28.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.47R   16.74  
Wigan           24   16  -28      28.39     4.59   -40.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.46R   58.47  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Birmingham vs Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         29   56  +16      84.28     5.85    23.29    44.09    65.45    96.08    73.90P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      29   52  +20      80.11     5.83    27.30    18.80    39.81    88.17    52.13P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   50  +13      78.49     5.76    20.83    11.19    27.39    81.97    41.70P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        29   48  +12      76.62     5.94    20.01     7.30    18.84    71.83    32.90P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       28   47  +19      78.72     5.93    29.05    13.92    31.86    83.25    49.25P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    29   47   +3      70.78     5.66     3.94     0.81     2.83    30.04     8.13P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             28   46   +3      70.80     5.73     3.58     0.75     2.86    30.01     8.03P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   45   +8      72.79     5.95    12.53     2.06     6.43    46.09    16.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United     29   45   +5      69.91     5.80     7.34     0.56     2.30    27.17     7.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton         29   45   +2      66.73     5.70     0.00     0.12     0.60    11.77     2.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Burnley          29   44   +8      68.36     5.74     9.37     0.33     1.25    19.37     5.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Derby            28   41   -3      63.17     5.80    -6.68     0.03     0.15     4.08     0.68P    0.25R    0.00  
Leicester        29   39   +5      63.52     5.83     6.69     0.03     0.15     5.32     1.35P    0.21R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   39   -1      60.21     5.49    -3.43     0.01     0.01     1.05     0.18P    0.58R    0.01  
Barnsley         29   39   -4      58.41     5.65   -10.02     0.00     0.01     0.65     0.08P    1.73R    0.04  
Watford          29   36   -8      57.23     5.73   -11.39     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.07P    2.97R    0.12  
Portsmouth       27   34   +3      60.64     6.00     4.09     0.00     0.04     2.29     0.52P    0.82R    0.04  
Peterborough     29   34   -2      56.00     5.97    -4.88     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    5.28R    0.33  
Ipswich          29   34  -11      55.27     5.75   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    6.33R    0.34  
Bristol_City     29   30  -16      49.48     5.52   -21.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    30.13R    3.80  
Millwall         29   29  -11      49.86     5.60   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   25.64R    3.41  
Doncaster        28   24  -22      41.62     5.49   -32.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.58R   38.31  
Nott'm_Forest    28   24  -24      45.83     5.69   -27.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   58.38R   14.17  
Coventry         29   22  -15      40.97     5.39   -20.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.07R   39.42  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Carlisle vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        28   64  +33      97.72     5.87    46.61    76.23    92.35   100.00    94.76P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   57  +16      85.46     5.89    23.80     3.89    21.97    97.72    38.43P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    29   55  +28      86.80     5.72    41.13     7.66    33.37    99.07    56.60P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.35     6.15    38.23    11.04    44.12    99.25    62.64P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         28   49  +21      80.82     6.03    31.85     1.11     7.43    92.02    28.91P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      72.90     6.27    20.74     0.06     0.63    53.07     9.63P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        28   45   -1      69.60     6.06    -1.46     0.01     0.11    25.36     3.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       28   40   +3      65.08     6.01     3.56     0.00     0.01     9.23     1.51P    0.07R    0.00  
Bournemouth     28   40   +0      65.36     6.02     0.92     0.00     0.01     9.76     1.78P    0.04R    0.00  
Bury            28   38   -9      59.47     6.00   -14.32     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.15P    1.36R    0.01  
Notts_County    28   37   +3      62.32     6.06     3.89     0.00     0.00     4.09     0.65P    0.32R    0.00  
Hartlepool      28   37   +0      59.90     5.92    -2.72     0.00     0.00     1.68     0.20P    0.85R    0.01  
Colchester      27   36   -4      61.37     6.23    -5.16     0.00     0.00     3.30     0.49P    0.71R    0.01  
Preston         28   36   -7      60.49     6.12    -7.71     0.00     0.00     2.35     0.44P    0.96R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient   28   35   -9      57.84     5.88   -11.90     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.09P    2.73R    0.07  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.29     6.33    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.14P    3.79R    0.13  
Tranmere        29   32   -6      53.48     5.66    -8.54     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    9.00R    0.42  
Yeovil          29   27  -15      46.68     5.66   -20.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.76R    7.70  
Exeter          28   27  -16      46.93     5.81   -23.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.28R    7.43  
Wycombe         29   26  -18      44.05     5.63   -26.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.17R   17.20  
Walsall         28   25   -8      46.34     5.83   -12.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.68R    8.33  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      49.95     6.32   -11.11     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   25.66R    3.57  
Rochdale        28   24  -22      44.10     5.78   -29.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.20R   17.99  
Chesterfield    29   23  -17      40.72     5.63   -26.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.41R   37.12  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Plymouth vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Cheltenham           27   55  +18      82.27     6.16    19.80    10.13    41.55    93.19    51.41P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             28   53  +20      84.34     6.04    30.17    17.23    59.05    96.90    69.87P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              27   52  +24      88.20     6.10    39.16    43.62    80.90    99.24    87.74P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      82.96     6.57    23.29    13.80    47.64    93.49    57.82P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   51  +16      83.04     6.20    24.78    12.74    48.93    94.81    62.46P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   50  +10      77.07     6.02    13.48     2.04    14.59    75.04    29.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   43  +11      68.69     5.96    12.67     0.06     1.09    25.22     6.46P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +6      68.94     6.01     7.85     0.06     1.21    25.35     6.90P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   42   -1      64.45     6.00    -4.82     0.01     0.20     7.66     1.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           27   41   +8      71.26     6.31    14.31     0.26     3.39    41.46    13.50P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            28   41   +6      67.60     6.00     8.80     0.02     0.69    19.59     5.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe                28   39   -3      64.60     6.04    -1.81     0.00     0.20     8.31     2.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            27   37   +2      65.82     6.31     6.10     0.03     0.47    13.65     3.77P    0.02R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      62.01     6.27     8.74     0.00     0.09     5.27     1.31P    0.09R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   35  -14      53.70     5.87   -24.26     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    3.80R    1.04  
Bristol_Rovers       28   33  -13      55.31     6.10   -17.04     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.08P    2.18R    0.58  
Barnet               27   32  -11      53.17     6.01   -18.91     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    4.77R    1.30  
Aldershot            27   31   -9      54.64     6.05   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    2.69R    0.69  
Macclesfield         28   30   -8      51.04     5.78   -13.28     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.58R    2.36  
Bradford             27   27   -6      49.03     6.03   -11.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.39R    5.29  
Hereford             28   26  -18      44.82     5.68   -26.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.62R   18.48  
Dag_&_Red            28   24  -20      45.77     5.97   -24.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.35R   14.94  
Plymouth             29   23  -21      45.48     5.90   -22.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.16R   15.85  
Northampton          28   21  -24      41.74     5.88   -30.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.31R   39.45  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 February 2012, Fleetwood_Town vs Tamworth; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     31   70  +34      96.23     5.32    42.97    41.68    99.90    56.52P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.12     5.34    47.12    51.52    99.93    65.99P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      88.99     5.01    47.39     6.52    97.94    43.47P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.22     5.26    39.47     0.23    74.95    16.08P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      76.89     5.42    18.95     0.04    39.12     5.83P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          31   52   -5      71.16     5.37    -7.77     0.00     8.50     0.56P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.25     5.34    23.84     0.01    29.69     4.91P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.14     5.37     5.71     0.00    11.18     1.03P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      73.92     5.62    17.51     0.01    20.82     3.00P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.19     5.56    16.49     0.00    16.94     2.49P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.38     5.28    -0.98     0.00     0.68     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.32     5.25    10.63     0.00     0.22     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     31   42   -4      60.04     5.36    -8.63     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Tamworth           30   38   -8      55.45     5.34   -15.62     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.19R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.94     5.30    -6.04     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       31   30  -14      52.02     5.38   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.79R    0.09  
Darlington         31   28   -7      49.65     5.29    -5.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.63R    0.14  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      45.10     5.34   -21.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.24R    1.43  
Stockport          32   28  -18      47.12     5.20   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.54R    0.67  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.83     5.11   -43.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.87R    2.97  
Newport_County     29   26   -9      49.03     5.71    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.61R    0.36  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.22     4.91   -42.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.80R   19.82  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.45     4.95   -35.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.06R   16.45  
Bath_City          30   18  -33      33.69     5.19   -43.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.08R   58.06  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10