Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 30 January 2012 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 January 2012, Arsenal vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        22   54  +42      87.89     5.10    62.28    60.80    96.76    99.60    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   51  +33      86.02     4.85    55.13    38.34    93.95    99.22    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   46  +17      73.48     5.45    25.72     0.58     5.66    51.27    84.27    99.21     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   41  +15      72.05     5.21    29.78     0.27     3.42    41.21    79.95    98.81     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   36   +6      64.98     5.49    17.61     0.01     0.17     6.37    23.29    85.37     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       22   36   +2      58.80     5.51     2.94     0.00     0.01     0.63     3.56    39.80     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   35   +4      61.61     5.47    10.77     0.00     0.03     1.68     8.90    66.11     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           22   30  -10      48.26     5.25   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.02     1.66     0.67R    0.02  
Norwich         22   29   -4      46.45     5.41   -12.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.10     1.89R    0.05  
Sunderland      22   27   +5      47.79     5.46     3.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.23     0.86R    0.03  
Aston_Villa     22   27   -3      47.37     5.41    -6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.66     1.17R    0.03  
Fulham          22   26   -3      47.61     5.32    -3.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.42     0.87R    0.03  
Swansea         22   26   -4      44.00     5.35    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     4.40R    0.23  
Everton         22   26   -4      47.75     5.48    -4.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.00     0.85R    0.02  
West_Brom       22   25   -9      43.19     5.30   -16.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     6.93R    0.49  
QPR             22   20  -15      34.60     5.01   -27.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.86R   11.12  
Bolton          22   19  -19      37.35     5.38   -26.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    35.55R    6.07  
Blackburn       22   18  -12      35.61     5.28   -20.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.00R    8.95  
Wolverhampton   22   18  -15      34.82     5.32   -23.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.64R   11.68  
Wigan           22   15  -26      28.64     4.91   -40.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.29R   61.29  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2012, Peterborough vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         27   53  +19      86.26     6.18    29.64    51.86    74.27    97.85    81.19P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   50  +20      80.79     6.22    27.28    17.66    41.05    88.90    53.52P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   49  +15      80.78     6.18    23.66    16.69    39.61    88.71    53.05P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   45   +8      72.75     5.93    12.47     1.33     5.03    46.41    15.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    27   45   +3      71.67     6.03     4.14     0.94     3.61    37.18    10.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull             27   45   +3      71.90     5.93     4.54     0.89     3.67    38.16    10.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham       26   43  +16      77.11     6.36    25.55     7.59    20.98    74.59    38.33P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        27   42   +9      73.06     6.39    16.52     2.11     7.30    50.18    18.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United     27   42   +5      69.49     6.20     7.17     0.54     2.19    26.95     7.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton         27   41   +1      65.20     6.06    -1.39     0.08     0.37     9.05     1.82P    0.13R    0.00  
Derby            27   41   -2      64.50     6.02    -5.68     0.03     0.26     6.95     1.17P    0.22R    0.00  
Burnley          27   40   +6      67.45     6.16     7.96     0.20     1.02    17.37     4.48P    0.03R    0.00  
Leicester        27   38   +6      65.65     6.20     8.28     0.06     0.53    11.96     3.02P    0.12R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   37   -1      60.67     5.88    -3.80     0.01     0.04     1.90     0.37P    0.95R    0.04  
Barnsley         27   36   -4      58.18     6.01    -9.93     0.00     0.01     0.78     0.14P    3.06R    0.14  
Portsmouth       27   34   +3      60.76     6.01     4.24     0.01     0.05     2.47     0.62P    0.95R    0.05  
Peterborough     28   33   -2      55.66     6.17    -6.18     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.06P    7.43R    0.73  
Watford          27   30  -11      53.42     6.11   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P   14.44R    1.68  
Bristol_City     28   30  -13      51.40     5.77   -17.62     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   21.93R    2.71  
Millwall         27   29   -8      52.78     6.01   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   15.52R    1.94  
Ipswich          27   28  -16      50.18     6.06   -22.20     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   30.60R    5.47  
Nott'm_Forest    27   24  -22      47.47     5.94   -25.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.32R   11.83  
Doncaster        27   23  -22      41.52     5.65   -33.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.60R   47.42  
Coventry         27   22  -13      43.48     5.76   -19.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.67R   27.99  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2012, Brentford vs Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        27   63  +33      99.02     6.05    48.13    79.85    93.59    99.99    95.60P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    28   54  +28      87.49     5.92    41.67     7.31    36.59    99.28    58.42P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.27     6.19    38.07     8.48    40.91    99.28    60.79P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   53  +15      84.64     6.29    23.50     2.77    18.16    96.80    35.49P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         26   47  +21      81.63     6.43    31.95     1.56    10.18    93.24    31.42P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      73.01     6.26    20.90     0.03     0.51    55.71    10.06P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        27   42   -2      68.30     6.28    -1.96     0.00     0.05    20.99     2.89P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford       28   40   +3      65.08     6.01     3.56     0.00     0.00     9.85     1.46P    0.07R    0.00  
Bournemouth     28   40   +0      65.37     6.02     0.89     0.00     0.01    10.35     1.80P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool      28   37   +0      59.80     5.87    -2.87     0.00     0.00     1.72     0.23P    1.03R    0.01  
Bury            27   37   -9      59.00     6.16   -15.82     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.15P    2.08R    0.03  
Colchester      27   36   -4      61.54     6.20    -4.98     0.00     0.00     3.60     0.51P    0.70R    0.01  
Preston         28   36   -7      60.51     6.16    -7.70     0.00     0.00     2.69     0.45P    1.11R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   28   35   -9      57.79     5.90   -11.96     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.11P    2.95R    0.07  
Notts_County    27   34   +2      60.68     6.21     2.88     0.00     0.00     3.00     0.44P    0.96R    0.03  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.34     6.30    -8.10     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.13P    3.81R    0.13  
Tranmere        28   32   -5      55.10     5.95    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    6.62R    0.27  
Yeovil          28   27  -14      47.52     5.83   -20.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.71R    6.27  
Exeter          28   27  -16      46.95     5.77   -23.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.81R    7.24  
Walsall         27   25   -7      47.84     6.01   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   38.42R    5.53  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      49.97     6.30   -11.14     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   26.88R    3.37  
Rochdale        28   24  -22      44.05     5.75   -29.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.94R   17.75  
Chesterfield    28   23  -16      41.75     5.82   -26.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.49R   29.53  
Wycombe         28   23  -19      41.90     5.83   -28.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.32R   29.75  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 January 2012, Burton_Albion vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Cheltenham           27   55  +18      82.40     6.18    19.98    10.32    41.64    93.45    51.36P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             26   52  +23      87.04     6.41    34.61    34.27    73.80    98.48    81.10P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      83.06     6.59    23.51    14.05    47.31    93.61    57.69P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   51  +16      83.08     6.16    24.81    11.89    48.17    94.76    62.10P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   50  +10      77.08     6.09    13.53     1.93    14.34    74.71    29.41P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              26   49  +21      85.81     6.35    34.89    27.08    67.81    97.81    78.60P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   43  +11      68.80     5.97    12.84     0.07     1.14    26.09     6.56P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +6      68.92     6.03     7.85     0.05     1.14    25.35     6.93P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   42   -1      64.49     5.98    -4.72     0.01     0.17     7.76     1.48P    0.02R    0.00  
Gillingham           27   41   +8      71.14     6.31    14.17     0.27     3.18    40.64    12.98P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            28   41   +6      67.49     5.96     8.74     0.04     0.60    19.22     4.81P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                28   39   -3      64.47     6.05    -2.01     0.00     0.16     8.20     1.94P    0.02R    0.01  
Rotherham            27   37   +2      65.88     6.33     6.16     0.02     0.46    13.94     3.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      62.08     6.28     8.85     0.01     0.07     5.25     1.19P    0.09R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   35  -14      53.55     5.84   -24.53     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.00P    4.26R    1.13  
Bristol_Rovers       28   33  -13      55.24     6.08   -17.13     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    2.21R    0.59  
Barnet               27   32  -11      53.08     5.97   -19.10     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    4.81R    1.39  
Aldershot            27   31   -9      54.61     6.04   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P    2.72R    0.75  
Macclesfield         28   30   -8      51.09     5.80   -13.21     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    7.47R    2.32  
Bradford             27   27   -6      49.16     6.02   -11.66     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    13.66R    5.04  
Hereford             28   26  -18      44.85     5.71   -26.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.69R   18.52  
Dag_&_Red            28   24  -20      45.85     5.98   -24.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.78R   14.59  
Plymouth             28   22  -21      45.42     6.05   -23.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.96R   16.63  
Northampton          28   21  -24      41.75     5.85   -30.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.29R   39.02  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2012, Braintree_Town vs Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     30   69  +34      97.55     5.47    44.52    48.54    99.90    61.82P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.15     5.35    47.18    46.19    99.94    62.29P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      88.95     4.96    47.30     5.03    97.95    41.87P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.35     5.20    39.67     0.19    75.58    15.96P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      77.01     5.41    19.22     0.03    39.57     6.06P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          31   52   -5      71.26     5.42    -7.56     0.00     8.57     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.24     5.38    23.80     0.01    29.10     4.80P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.24     5.33     5.88     0.00    10.98     1.05P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      74.01     5.65    17.63     0.00    20.91     3.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.19     5.55    16.47     0.00    16.52     2.50P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.40     5.29    -0.98     0.00     0.62     0.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.23     5.23    10.57     0.00     0.27     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     31   42   -4      60.02     5.37    -8.70     0.00     0.08     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.89     5.32    -6.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19R    0.00  
Tamworth           29   37   -8      54.77     5.46   -17.50     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.24R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       31   30  -14      51.93     5.42   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.01R    0.08  
Darlington         31   28   -7      49.74     5.26    -5.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.28R    0.16  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      45.02     5.33   -21.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.33R    1.36  
Stockport          32   28  -18      47.10     5.20   -18.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.52R    0.63  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.76     5.15   -44.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.17R    3.16  
Newport_County     29   26   -9      49.05     5.73    -9.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.50R    0.41  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.20     4.88   -42.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.23R   19.45  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.50     4.95   -35.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.38R   15.99  
Bath_City          30   18  -33      33.60     5.23   -43.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.13R   58.75  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10