Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 29 January 2012 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 January 2012, Arsenal vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        22   54  +42      87.87     5.12    62.27    60.84    96.78    99.61    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   51  +33      85.99     4.85    55.10    38.39    94.03    99.10    99.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   46  +17      73.43     5.42    25.63     0.49     5.52    51.05    84.23    99.15     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   41  +15      72.05     5.25    29.80     0.28     3.48    41.21    80.12    98.81     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   36   +6      64.92     5.56    17.50     0.00     0.15     6.64    23.32    85.15     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       22   36   +2      58.77     5.53     2.87     0.00     0.01     0.68     3.59    40.14     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool       22   35   +4      61.54     5.50    10.68     0.00     0.03     1.70     8.70    65.89     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           22   30  -10      48.21     5.23   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.54     0.69R    0.02  
Norwich         22   29   -4      46.51     5.40   -12.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.26     1.77R    0.06  
Sunderland      22   27   +5      47.81     5.45     3.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.20     0.88R    0.02  
Aston_Villa     22   27   -3      47.37     5.41    -5.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.66     1.15R    0.02  
Fulham          22   26   -3      47.57     5.32    -4.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.49     1.00R    0.02  
Swansea         22   26   -4      44.01     5.33    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.39     4.54R    0.20  
Everton         22   26   -4      47.83     5.47    -4.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.04     0.83R    0.02  
West_Brom       22   25   -9      43.14     5.34   -16.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     7.02R    0.47  
QPR             22   20  -15      34.61     5.06   -27.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.37R   11.01  
Bolton          22   19  -19      37.54     5.42   -25.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    34.75R    5.67  
Blackburn       22   18  -12      35.67     5.29   -20.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.57R    9.14  
Wolverhampton   22   18  -15      34.83     5.33   -23.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    53.24R   11.96  
Wigan           22   15  -26      28.64     4.90   -40.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.17R   61.39  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2012, Peterborough vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         27   53  +19      86.27     6.20    29.68    52.08    74.01    97.73    81.22P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   50  +20      80.72     6.27    27.17    17.49    40.73    88.64    53.08P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   49  +15      80.70     6.14    23.52    16.33    39.20    88.60    52.64P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   45   +8      72.80     5.91    12.57     1.32     5.27    46.75    15.88P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    27   45   +3      71.74     6.07     4.24     0.94     3.86    37.66    10.30P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull             27   45   +3      71.81     5.95     4.48     0.98     3.68    37.77    10.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham       26   43  +16      77.22     6.33    25.74     7.73    21.26    75.20    39.07P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        27   42   +9      73.12     6.42    16.61     2.22     7.69    50.53    19.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     27   42   +5      69.45     6.13     7.09     0.49     2.02    26.36     6.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton         27   41   +1      65.13     6.03    -1.44     0.05     0.30     8.77     1.80P    0.13R    0.00  
Derby            27   41   -2      64.52     6.01    -5.70     0.04     0.23     7.18     1.28P    0.19R    0.00  
Burnley          27   40   +6      67.41     6.17     7.88     0.21     1.08    17.16     4.44P    0.04R    0.00  
Leicester        27   38   +6      65.65     6.19     8.29     0.12     0.57    11.94     3.04P    0.12R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   37   -1      60.58     5.84    -3.89     0.01     0.03     1.83     0.29P    0.92R    0.03  
Barnsley         27   36   -4      58.04     5.98   -10.18     0.00     0.01     0.85     0.13P    3.17R    0.15  
Portsmouth       27   34   +3      60.81     6.00     4.32     0.01     0.06     2.47     0.65P    0.95R    0.02  
Peterborough     28   33   -2      55.72     6.14    -6.05     0.00     0.01     0.34     0.04P    7.33R    0.70  
Watford          27   30  -11      53.42     6.10   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   14.39R    1.62  
Bristol_City     28   30  -13      51.49     5.79   -17.51     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   21.60R    2.51  
Millwall         27   29   -8      52.80     6.04   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   15.31R    1.98  
Ipswich          27   28  -16      50.28     6.09   -22.05     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   30.01R    5.32  
Nott'm_Forest    27   24  -22      47.45     5.95   -25.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.97R   11.57  
Doncaster        27   23  -22      41.44     5.61   -33.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.87R   48.13  
Coventry         27   22  -13      43.43     5.75   -19.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.98R   27.96  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2012, Brentford vs Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        27   63  +33      98.98     6.06    48.08    79.21    93.58   100.00    95.65P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    28   54  +28      87.54     5.96    41.72     7.71    36.94    99.24    59.30P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.32     6.16    38.14     8.87    41.07    99.31    60.94P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   53  +15      84.63     6.27    23.44     2.59    17.78    96.98    35.01P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         26   47  +21      81.49     6.47    31.77     1.58     9.96    92.88    31.07P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      72.80     6.28    20.61     0.04     0.58    55.04     9.74P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        27   42   -2      68.23     6.27    -2.04     0.00     0.06    21.08     2.99P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford       28   40   +3      65.10     6.03     3.57     0.00     0.01    10.35     1.54P    0.09R    0.00  
Bournemouth     28   40   +0      65.35     6.00     0.90     0.00     0.01    10.25     1.71P    0.10R    0.00  
Hartlepool      28   37   +0      59.82     5.93    -2.86     0.00     0.00     1.85     0.25P    1.02R    0.01  
Bury            27   37   -9      58.91     6.16   -15.93     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.14P    2.15R    0.05  
Colchester      27   36   -4      61.49     6.23    -5.04     0.00     0.00     3.78     0.57P    0.78R    0.02  
Preston         28   36   -7      60.48     6.12    -7.74     0.00     0.00     2.50     0.36P    1.10R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   28   35   -9      57.84     5.93   -11.89     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.11P    2.97R    0.07  
Notts_County    27   34   +2      60.63     6.24     2.82     0.00     0.00     3.04     0.44P    1.02R    0.03  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.32     6.31    -8.16     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.11P    4.02R    0.15  
Tranmere        28   32   -5      55.15     5.90    -7.10     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    6.50R    0.23  
Yeovil          28   27  -14      47.51     5.83   -20.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    43.25R    6.47  
Exeter          28   27  -16      46.97     5.80   -23.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   48.06R    7.38  
Walsall         27   25   -7      47.96     6.01   -11.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    37.82R    5.54  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      49.94     6.31   -11.17     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   27.31R    3.47  
Rochdale        28   24  -22      44.05     5.77   -29.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.19R   18.36  
Chesterfield    28   23  -16      41.96     5.83   -25.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.69R   29.09  
Wycombe         28   23  -19      42.04     5.78   -28.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.90R   29.12  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 29 January 2012, Burton_Albion vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Cheltenham           27   55  +18      82.25     6.18    19.75    10.06    41.20    92.91    50.93P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             26   52  +23      86.99     6.45    34.55    34.08    73.77    98.38    81.20P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      82.99     6.61    23.39    13.70    47.67    93.25    57.90P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   51  +16      83.08     6.15    24.85    12.40    48.09    94.81    62.10P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   50  +10      77.07     6.03    13.50     1.97    14.40    74.69    29.09P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              26   49  +21      85.78     6.32    34.84    27.27    67.73    97.80    78.68P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   43  +11      68.91     5.99    12.98     0.07     1.22    26.39     6.87P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +6      68.91     6.00     7.84     0.08     1.19    24.92     6.64P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        28   42   -1      64.51     6.02    -4.74     0.00     0.16     7.77     1.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Gillingham           27   41   +8      71.18     6.32    14.24     0.29     3.17    40.97    13.05P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            28   41   +6      67.63     5.97     8.89     0.03     0.66    19.71     4.94P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                28   39   -3      64.64     6.04    -1.76     0.01     0.20     8.58     2.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            27   37   +2      65.87     6.32     6.15     0.03     0.44    13.95     3.86P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      61.97     6.24     8.67     0.00     0.08     5.07     1.08P    0.09R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   35  -14      53.66     5.87   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    3.90R    1.04  
Bristol_Rovers       28   33  -13      55.26     6.07   -17.04     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P    2.25R    0.58  
Barnet               27   32  -11      53.13     5.98   -18.97     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    4.46R    1.20  
Aldershot            27   31   -9      54.59     6.03   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    2.69R    0.69  
Macclesfield         28   30   -8      50.99     5.80   -13.37     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    7.82R    2.40  
Bradford             27   27   -6      49.12     6.03   -11.74     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.86R    5.16  
Hereford             28   26  -18      44.77     5.67   -26.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.96R   18.83  
Dag_&_Red            28   24  -20      45.89     5.97   -24.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.44R   14.30  
Plymouth             28   22  -21      45.36     6.08   -23.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.34R   16.57  
Northampton          28   21  -24      41.75     5.88   -30.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.16R   39.19  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2012, Braintree_Town vs Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     30   69  +34      97.63     5.48    44.64    49.05    99.88    62.37P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.12     5.34    47.17    45.61    99.94    61.36P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      88.99     4.99    47.39     5.14    97.98    42.00P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.22     5.24    39.49     0.17    74.80    16.30P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      77.02     5.39    19.22     0.02    40.01     5.91P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          31   52   -5      71.25     5.42    -7.62     0.00     8.55     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.22     5.36    23.82     0.01    29.67     5.02P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.18     5.32     5.78     0.00    11.04     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      73.84     5.61    17.41     0.00    20.25     2.78P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.22     5.55    16.52     0.00    16.82     2.59P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.27     5.28    -1.16     0.00     0.68     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.30     5.25    10.63     0.00     0.27     0.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     31   42   -4      59.99     5.37    -8.76     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.78     5.30    -6.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Tamworth           29   37   -8      54.77     5.46   -17.44     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.35R    0.01  
Lincoln_City       31   30  -14      52.04     5.40   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.80R    0.06  
Darlington         31   28   -7      49.71     5.25    -5.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.51R    0.17  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      45.06     5.33   -21.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.60R    1.44  
Stockport          32   28  -18      47.09     5.20   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.83R    0.70  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.89     5.15   -43.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.60R    2.96  
Newport_County     29   26   -9      49.12     5.71    -9.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.57R    0.35  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.23     4.91   -42.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.87R   19.90  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.45     5.01   -35.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.87R   16.90  
Bath_City          30   18  -33      33.76     5.22   -43.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.87R   57.52  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10