Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 28 January 2012 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 January 2012, Arsenal vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        22   54  +42      87.85     5.10    62.26    60.47    96.74    99.64    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   51  +33      86.02     4.86    55.15    38.70    94.03    99.16    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   46  +17      73.39     5.41    25.59     0.53     5.53    51.25    84.03    99.21     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   41  +15      71.98     5.23    29.65     0.29     3.48    40.90    79.87    98.73     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   36   +6      64.97     5.52    17.56     0.00     0.17     6.60    23.64    85.25     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       22   36   +2      58.71     5.55     2.84     0.00     0.01     0.68     3.63    39.58     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   35   +4      61.61     5.46    10.79     0.00     0.04     1.77     8.78    66.45     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           22   30  -10      48.28     5.26   -16.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.64     0.76R    0.01  
Norwich         22   29   -4      46.41     5.41   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.17     1.78R    0.03  
Sunderland      22   27   +5      47.82     5.46     3.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.26     0.83R    0.03  
Aston_Villa     22   27   -3      47.29     5.42    -6.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.59     1.26R    0.03  
Fulham          22   26   -3      47.58     5.35    -3.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.47     1.06R    0.04  
Swansea         22   26   -4      44.02     5.33    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     4.62R    0.22  
Everton         22   26   -4      47.82     5.48    -4.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.02     0.86R    0.02  
West_Brom       22   25   -9      43.21     5.34   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     7.02R    0.45  
QPR             22   20  -15      34.66     5.02   -27.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.71R   11.05  
Bolton          22   19  -19      37.46     5.41   -26.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    35.24R    6.00  
Blackburn       22   18  -12      35.68     5.31   -20.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.52R    9.11  
Wolverhampton   22   18  -15      34.80     5.32   -23.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.36R   12.07  
Wigan           22   15  -26      28.74     4.93   -40.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.99R   60.93  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2012, Peterborough vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         27   53  +19      86.13     6.20    29.47    51.21    73.65    97.61    80.79P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   50  +20      80.76     6.24    27.22    17.92    41.01    88.73    53.13P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   49  +15      80.75     6.15    23.67    16.95    39.54    88.50    52.86P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   45   +8      72.84     5.92    12.58     1.24     5.20    46.91    16.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Middlesbrough    27   45   +3      71.60     6.05     4.04     0.99     3.69    36.27    10.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull             27   45   +3      71.86     5.91     4.54     0.83     3.63    37.91    10.35P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   43  +16      77.20     6.35    25.68     7.80    21.47    75.08    39.24P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        27   42   +9      73.06     6.39    16.48     2.11     7.30    50.37    18.43P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     27   42   +5      69.50     6.17     7.17     0.49     2.13    26.68     7.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton         27   41   +1      65.33     6.11    -1.19     0.09     0.44     9.65     1.92P    0.13R    0.00  
Derby            27   41   -2      64.56     6.03    -5.64     0.03     0.23     7.08     1.26P    0.19R    0.00  
Burnley          27   40   +6      67.45     6.17     7.92     0.25     1.14    17.46     4.68P    0.06R    0.00  
Leicester        27   38   +6      65.60     6.21     8.25     0.09     0.50    12.00     3.12P    0.15R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   37   -1      60.58     5.85    -3.89     0.00     0.03     1.76     0.33P    0.96R    0.05  
Barnsley         27   36   -4      58.06     6.01   -10.16     0.00     0.02     0.85     0.13P    3.13R    0.15  
Portsmouth       27   34   +3      60.75     6.03     4.24     0.01     0.04     2.51     0.58P    1.00R    0.03  
Peterborough     28   33   -2      55.78     6.13    -5.95     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.06P    7.10R    0.68  
Watford          27   30  -11      53.44     6.09   -15.24     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   14.31R    1.53  
Bristol_City     28   30  -13      51.40     5.74   -17.57     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   21.82R    2.66  
Millwall         27   29   -8      52.70     6.01   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   15.73R    2.02  
Ipswich          27   28  -16      50.34     6.06   -21.96     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   29.77R    5.38  
Nott'm_Forest    27   24  -22      47.45     5.89   -25.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.81R   11.50  
Doncaster        27   23  -22      41.44     5.65   -33.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.94R   48.12  
Coventry         27   22  -13      43.47     5.78   -19.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.89R   27.87  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2012, Brentford vs Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        27   63  +33      99.11     6.07    48.33    79.29    93.84   100.00    95.80P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    28   54  +28      87.53     5.95    41.74     7.72    36.87    99.29    59.27P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.34     6.20    38.15     8.78    41.51    99.25    61.46P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   53  +15      84.48     6.28    23.23     2.66    17.25    96.56    34.28P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         26   47  +21      81.54     6.41    31.83     1.51     9.93    93.07    30.92P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      73.05     6.25    20.94     0.04     0.53    56.01     9.98P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        27   42   -2      68.38     6.25    -1.88     0.00     0.05    21.09     3.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       28   40   +3      65.04     6.04     3.49     0.00     0.01     9.80     1.43P    0.09R    0.00  
Bournemouth     28   40   +0      65.30     6.00     0.83     0.00     0.01    10.13     1.74P    0.07R    0.00  
Hartlepool      28   37   +0      59.85     5.96    -2.81     0.00     0.00     1.96     0.24P    1.04R    0.01  
Bury            27   37   -9      58.85     6.19   -16.02     0.00     0.00     1.64     0.18P    2.23R    0.06  
Colchester      27   36   -4      61.42     6.25    -5.13     0.00     0.00     3.58     0.51P    0.82R    0.02  
Preston         28   36   -7      60.49     6.16    -7.71     0.00     0.00     2.60     0.42P    1.23R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient   28   35   -9      57.80     5.88   -11.96     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.09P    2.93R    0.07  
Notts_County    27   34   +2      60.59     6.23     2.71     0.00     0.00     2.87     0.41P    1.05R    0.02  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.35     6.37    -8.08     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.13P    4.12R    0.12  
Tranmere        28   32   -5      55.16     5.91    -7.08     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.04P    6.53R    0.25  
Yeovil          28   27  -14      47.47     5.79   -20.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   43.42R    6.44  
Exeter          28   27  -16      47.00     5.75   -23.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    47.28R    7.28  
Walsall         27   25   -7      47.85     5.99   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    38.65R    5.60  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      49.98     6.30   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   26.83R    3.32  
Rochdale        28   24  -22      44.07     5.79   -29.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.75R   18.20  
Chesterfield    28   23  -16      41.88     5.82   -25.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.99R   29.33  
Wycombe         28   23  -19      42.02     5.85   -28.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.96R   29.25  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2012, Accrington_Stanley vs Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Cheltenham           27   55  +18      82.39     6.23    20.00    10.74    41.50    92.79    51.54P    0.00     0.00  
Southend             26   52  +22      86.85     6.43    33.23    32.25    72.35    98.26    79.98P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      83.03     6.57    23.46    13.97    47.30    93.44    57.38P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   51  +17      83.27     6.19    26.14    13.12    49.76    94.97    63.53P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   50  +10      77.03     6.02    13.46     1.98    14.07    74.17    28.82P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              26   49  +21      85.82     6.37    34.95    27.43    67.58    97.71    78.54P    0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   28   43   +6      69.02     6.01     7.98     0.07     1.25    25.04     6.73P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   42  +11      69.21     6.21    12.87     0.11     1.49    28.39     7.49P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           27   41   +8      71.09     6.33    14.10     0.27     3.16    39.82    12.52P    0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale            28   41   +6      67.50     6.03     8.73     0.03     0.63    18.82     4.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   41   -1      64.75     6.19    -4.93     0.01     0.23     8.88     1.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Crewe                28   39   -3      64.60     6.08    -1.84     0.01     0.18     8.36     1.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            27   37   +2      65.83     6.30     6.15     0.01     0.42    13.49     3.75P    0.03R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      62.10     6.25     8.88     0.00     0.09     5.14     1.23P    0.09R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   35  -14      53.58     5.84   -24.47     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    3.89R    1.08  
Bristol_Rovers       28   33  -13      55.28     6.06   -17.07     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.06P    2.21R    0.55  
Barnet               27   32  -11      53.15     5.99   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    4.59R    1.29  
Aldershot            27   31   -9      54.63     6.07   -12.44     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P    2.74R    0.77  
Macclesfield         28   30   -8      51.08     5.83   -13.26     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    7.80R    2.52  
Bradford             27   27   -6      49.11     6.02   -11.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.87R    5.27  
Hereford             28   26  -18      44.85     5.67   -26.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.33R   18.13  
Dag_&_Red            28   24  -20      45.78     5.97   -24.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.06R   14.79  
Plymouth             28   22  -21      45.39     6.07   -23.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.07R   16.39  
Northampton          28   21  -24      41.73     5.88   -30.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.28R   39.19  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 28 January 2012, Braintree_Town vs Barrow; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     30   69  +34      97.67     5.44    44.67    48.94    99.92    62.18P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   68  +36      97.21     5.33    47.33    45.68    99.92    61.98P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              31   59  +32      89.09     4.98    47.53     5.20    98.06    42.00P    0.00     0.00  
York               31   54  +29      81.24     5.21    39.51     0.15    74.73    16.10P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      31   53  +14      76.90     5.38    18.98     0.01    39.17     5.76P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          31   52   -5      71.25     5.43    -7.62     0.00     8.74     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            31   51  +18      75.29     5.35    23.93     0.01    29.75     4.75P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   51   +5      72.23     5.38     5.84     0.00    11.36     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          30   49  +13      73.98     5.61    17.60     0.00    20.50     2.86P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      30   49  +13      73.25     5.56    16.54     0.00    16.88     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   45   +1      64.35     5.27    -1.05     0.00     0.60     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       31   42  +11      62.28     5.25    10.65     0.00     0.26     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     31   42   -4      59.88     5.38    -8.92     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   37   -3      55.85     5.30    -6.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19R    0.00  
Tamworth           29   37   -8      54.70     5.45   -17.58     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.30R    0.00  
Lincoln_City       31   30  -14      52.07     5.40   -11.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.80R    0.06  
Darlington         31   28   -7      49.67     5.24    -5.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.51R    0.15  
AFC_Telford        31   28  -16      45.04     5.34   -21.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.46R    1.49  
Stockport          32   28  -18      47.25     5.17   -17.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.18R    0.64  
Kettering          31   28  -36      43.75     5.13   -44.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.33R    3.19  
Newport_County     29   26   -9      48.95     5.72    -9.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.64R    0.34  
Alfreton_Town      31   25  -29      38.27     4.93   -42.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.52R   19.52  
Hayes_&_Yeading    31   24  -24      38.43     4.99   -35.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.93R   16.65  
Bath_City          30   18  -33      33.65     5.23   -43.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.15R   57.96  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10