Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 27 January 2012 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 January 2012, Arsenal vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        22   54  +42      87.86     5.07    62.24    60.72    96.86    99.60    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   51  +33      86.06     4.86    55.21    38.44    94.15    99.21    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   46  +17      73.37     5.47    25.53     0.57     5.40    50.64    84.04    99.15     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   41  +15      72.02     5.24    29.71     0.27     3.38    41.45    80.05    98.74     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   36   +6      64.98     5.56    17.55     0.00     0.17     6.63    23.65    85.31     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       22   36   +2      58.70     5.56     2.77     0.00     0.01     0.68     3.56    39.69     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   35   +4      61.55     5.48    10.68     0.00     0.03     1.78     8.66    66.23     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           22   30  -10      48.26     5.22   -16.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.59     0.75R    0.01  
Norwich         22   29   -4      46.42     5.40   -12.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.22     1.87R    0.07  
Sunderland      22   27   +5      47.87     5.46     3.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.46     0.84R    0.02  
Aston_Villa     22   27   -3      47.40     5.47    -5.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.71     1.15R    0.03  
Fulham          22   26   -3      47.50     5.32    -4.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.33     1.00R    0.04  
Swansea         22   26   -4      43.96     5.33    -9.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     4.76R    0.23  
Everton         22   26   -4      47.77     5.51    -4.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.99     0.93R    0.04  
West_Brom       22   25   -9      43.15     5.32   -16.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     7.20R    0.51  
QPR             22   20  -15      34.66     5.02   -27.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.79R   11.24  
Bolton          22   19  -19      37.49     5.37   -25.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    34.77R    5.84  
Blackburn       22   18  -12      35.71     5.33   -20.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.75R    8.94  
Wolverhampton   22   18  -15      34.84     5.28   -23.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.08R   11.73  
Wigan           22   15  -26      28.71     4.92   -40.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.11R   61.30  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 January 2012, Southampton vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         27   53  +19      86.20     6.24    29.55    51.31    73.84    97.73    81.01P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   50  +20      80.87     6.22    27.38    18.35    41.84    89.56    54.16P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   49  +15      80.67     6.14    23.51    16.29    38.49    89.08    52.52P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    27   45   +3      71.73     6.03     4.23     0.90     3.73    38.13    10.32P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             27   45   +3      71.85     5.92     4.48     0.84     3.68    38.55    10.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham       26   43  +16      77.35     6.36    25.88     8.20    22.34    76.58    40.28P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        27   42   +9      73.13     6.37    16.59     2.25     7.68    51.35    18.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading          27   42   +7      71.66     6.09    12.26     0.97     4.01    40.59    13.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United     27   42   +5      69.33     6.18     6.88     0.44     2.15    26.40     6.96P    0.02R    0.00  
Brighton         27   41   +1      65.38     6.10    -1.13     0.08     0.38    10.00     2.08P    0.11R    0.00  
Derby            27   41   -2      64.44     5.99    -5.79     0.04     0.26     7.06     1.20P    0.19R    0.00  
Burnley          27   40   +6      67.40     6.13     7.85     0.22     1.00    17.57     4.62P    0.07R    0.00  
Leicester        27   38   +6      65.54     6.19     8.12     0.10     0.51    11.92     3.12P    0.14R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   27   37   -1      60.62     5.85    -3.85     0.01     0.04     1.87     0.33P    1.04R    0.06  
Barnsley         27   36   -4      58.03     6.01   -10.22     0.00     0.01     0.88     0.13P    3.33R    0.14  
Peterborough     27   33   +1      57.93     6.43    -1.67     0.00     0.03     1.23     0.25P    4.25R    0.32  
Portsmouth       26   31   +0      58.36     6.16     0.15     0.00     0.01     1.23     0.27P    2.93R    0.20  
Watford          27   30  -11      53.40     6.08   -15.27     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   14.93R    1.58  
Bristol_City     27   30  -12      52.37     5.91   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   18.48R    2.13  
Millwall         27   29   -8      52.80     6.00   -10.92     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   15.65R    2.00  
Ipswich          27   28  -16      50.25     6.08   -22.08     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   30.88R    5.43  
Nott'm_Forest    27   24  -22      47.43     5.91   -25.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.99R   11.85  
Doncaster        27   23  -22      41.51     5.63   -33.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.14R   47.71  
Coventry         27   22  -13      43.41     5.78   -19.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.85R   28.59  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 27 January 2012, Chesterfield vs Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        26   60  +32      97.89     6.28    47.88    72.28    90.01    99.99    93.18P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    27   53  +28      88.67     6.13    42.91    12.47    43.26    99.22    63.20P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.45     6.19    38.33    10.29    40.03    99.14    60.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   53  +15      84.57     6.34    23.34     3.27    16.67    96.10    33.53P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         26   47  +21      81.47     6.47    31.73     1.62     9.36    91.55    30.66P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      72.73     6.27    20.45     0.04     0.44    50.35     8.91P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        26   42   +2      70.55     6.56     3.42     0.02     0.22    32.38     5.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth     28   40   +0      65.23     6.04     0.70     0.00     0.01     9.38     1.67P    0.07R    0.00  
Brentford       27   37   +0      63.33     6.24     0.45     0.00     0.00     5.95     0.98P    0.30R    0.00  
Bury            26   37   -6      60.86     6.44   -11.95     0.00     0.00     3.10     0.33P    1.15R    0.02  
Preston         27   36   -6      62.32     6.42    -6.03     0.00     0.00     4.74     0.90P    0.60R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   27   35   -8      59.69     6.12   -10.27     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.20P    1.53R    0.02  
Notts_County    27   34   +2      60.55     6.25     2.64     0.00     0.00     2.50     0.39P    1.02R    0.02  
Hartlepool      27   34   -4      57.27     6.11    -8.27     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.11P    3.18R    0.07  
Colchester      26   33   -5      59.55     6.43    -6.54     0.00     0.00     2.01     0.31P    1.79R    0.04  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.41     6.32    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.14P    3.52R    0.11  
Tranmere        27   31   -5      54.88     6.07    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.03P    6.98R    0.30  
Exeter          27   27  -15      47.73     5.97   -23.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.75R    5.59  
Walsall         27   25   -7      47.90     6.03   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    36.57R    4.89  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      49.95     6.32   -11.19     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   25.79R    3.00  
Yeovil          27   24  -15      45.50     6.00   -22.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   54.76R   11.23  
Chesterfield    28   23  -16      41.89     5.80   -25.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.76R   26.58  
Wycombe         27   23  -16      43.50     6.05   -25.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.09R   18.70  
Rochdale        27   21  -25      41.83     5.96   -33.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.13R   29.41  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 January 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             26   52  +22      86.74     6.38    33.07    34.70    75.44    98.31    82.16P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      83.06     6.57    23.50    15.19    51.44    93.46    60.89P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           26   52  +16      80.13     6.37    17.07     6.68    32.00    86.54    41.74P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              26   49  +21      85.83     6.34    34.97    29.89    71.09    97.83    80.84P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   48  +15      81.77     6.37    24.29    10.54    43.81    91.71    58.43P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   47   +9      76.14     6.22    13.60     1.98    14.12    69.08    27.83P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   42  +11      69.27     6.16    12.96     0.10     1.76    28.85     7.75P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           26   41   +9      72.64     6.51    15.36     0.73     6.39    49.73    17.91P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   41   -1      64.80     6.22    -4.83     0.01     0.33     9.24     1.84P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   27   40   +5      67.06     6.18     6.50     0.04     0.86    17.58     4.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                27   39   -1      66.68     6.31     1.33     0.04     0.75    15.59     4.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale            27   38   +5      66.21     6.22     8.21     0.02     0.62    14.81     3.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham            26   37   +3      67.61     6.56     7.70     0.08     1.26    21.11     6.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      62.13     6.23     8.98     0.01     0.11     5.30     1.28P    0.09R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   35  -13      55.14     6.10   -23.14     0.00     0.01     0.36     0.05P    2.79R    0.75  
Macclesfield         27   30   -6      52.57     6.01   -10.90     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    5.26R    1.57  
Bristol_Rovers       27   30  -14      53.76     6.27   -17.94     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    4.69R    1.51  
Barnet               26   29  -13      50.73     6.20   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   11.21R    3.98  
Aldershot            26   28  -10      52.73     6.24   -13.82     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    5.89R    1.85  
Bradford             26   27   -5      50.48     6.27   -10.75     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   10.74R    3.79  
Hereford             27   26  -16      45.96     5.89   -25.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   31.66R   14.42  
Plymouth             27   22  -20      46.76     6.28   -22.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   27.19R   12.83  
Dag_&_Red            27   21  -21      43.93     6.19   -25.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.85R   24.61  
Northampton          27   21  -23      42.55     6.08   -30.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.58R   34.67  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 25 January 2012, Luton vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     29   66  +33      96.14     5.65    43.86    44.35    99.71    58.31P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   65  +34      96.45     5.46    46.80    47.97    99.86    62.90P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              30   56  +31      88.79     5.11    49.21     7.03    96.99    43.92P    0.00     0.00  
York               30   53  +29      81.78     5.41    39.77     0.42    73.89    16.20P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      30   53  +15      78.77     5.57    20.80     0.16    48.71     7.41P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          30   51   +6      74.07     5.60     7.58     0.00    17.07     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      29   49  +14      75.52     5.76    18.90     0.04    26.46     4.11P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          30   49   -7      69.37     5.64   -10.13     0.00     4.23     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            30   48  +16      74.24     5.53    22.92     0.01    20.32     3.49P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          29   46  +10      71.93     5.85    13.90     0.00    11.09     1.49P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             30   45   +2      65.79     5.50    -0.01     0.00     1.11     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       30   42  +12      63.39     5.52    11.26     0.00     0.50     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     30   39   -5      58.30     5.58    -9.94     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   37   +0      57.78     5.59    -2.24     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.04R    0.00  
Tamworth           28   34   -9      52.33     5.62   -19.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.38R    0.05  
Lincoln_City       30   30  -13      53.86     5.60   -10.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.98R    0.03  
AFC_Telford        30   28  -14      45.92     5.56   -20.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.49R    1.35  
Darlington         30   27   -7      49.90     5.46    -5.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.52R    0.23  
Stockport          31   25  -19      45.18     5.37   -19.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.74R    1.97  
Alfreton_Town      30   25  -28      38.39     4.99   -43.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.21R   20.57  
Kettering          30   25  -37      41.75     5.30   -45.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.92R    7.54  
Hayes_&_Yeading    30   24  -22      40.14     5.28   -33.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.61R   11.32  
Newport_County     28   23  -10      46.91     5.93   -11.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.07R    1.19  
Bath_City          29   18  -31      34.05     5.33   -43.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.01R   55.76  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10