Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 27 January 2012 at 08:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 January 2012, Arsenal vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        22   54  +42      87.79     5.10    62.14    60.39    96.71    99.58    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   51  +33      86.02     4.87    55.14    38.73    93.89    99.15    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   46  +17      73.51     5.45    25.75     0.59     5.61    51.24    84.57    99.26     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   41  +15      72.08     5.25    29.86     0.28     3.58    41.60    80.41    98.80     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   36   +6      64.84     5.57    17.35     0.00     0.18     6.17    22.74    84.64     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       22   36   +2      58.77     5.55     2.87     0.00     0.01     0.62     3.74    39.93     0.00R    0.00  
Liverpool       22   35   +4      61.58     5.46    10.73     0.00     0.02     1.64     8.49    66.14     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           22   30  -10      48.23     5.23   -16.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.56     0.72R    0.02  
Norwich         22   29   -4      46.39     5.43   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.18     1.88R    0.07  
Sunderland      22   27   +5      47.91     5.46     3.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.44     0.80R    0.02  
Aston_Villa     22   27   -3      47.38     5.47    -5.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.87     1.19R    0.04  
Fulham          22   26   -3      47.61     5.37    -3.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.55     0.97R    0.03  
Swansea         22   26   -4      44.01     5.32    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.39     4.65R    0.23  
Everton         22   26   -4      47.80     5.48    -4.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.99     0.85R    0.03  
West_Brom       22   25   -9      43.18     5.29   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     6.90R    0.43  
QPR             22   20  -15      34.58     5.02   -27.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.18R   11.24  
Bolton          22   19  -19      37.46     5.39   -26.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.04R    5.75  
Blackburn       22   18  -12      35.65     5.25   -20.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.49R    8.97  
Wolverhampton   22   18  -15      34.79     5.28   -23.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.23R   12.04  
Wigan           22   15  -26      28.72     4.88   -40.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.09R   61.12  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 January 2012, Southampton vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         27   53  +19      86.21     6.19    29.62    52.36    74.49    97.74    81.44P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   50  +20      80.65     6.22    27.05    17.39    40.18    89.01    52.72P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   49  +15      80.65     6.16    23.51    16.26    38.83    88.65    52.44P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    27   45   +3      71.73     6.07     4.21     1.02     4.09    38.09    10.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull             27   45   +3      71.99     5.89     4.63     0.95     3.96    39.42    10.83P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   43  +16      77.40     6.34    25.99     7.93    22.34    76.78    40.41P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        27   42   +9      73.11     6.37    16.54     2.21     7.61    51.03    19.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading          27   42   +7      71.66     6.12    12.24     1.03     4.15    40.66    13.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United     27   42   +5      69.51     6.17     7.14     0.50     2.17    27.43     7.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton         27   41   +1      65.14     6.04    -1.43     0.07     0.36     9.14     1.81P    0.11R    0.00  
Derby            27   41   -2      64.54     5.98    -5.63     0.03     0.25     7.26     1.30P    0.18R    0.00  
Burnley          27   40   +6      67.37     6.14     7.74     0.21     1.09    17.46     4.50P    0.05R    0.00  
Leicester        27   38   +6      65.46     6.16     8.02     0.05     0.41    11.68     2.92P    0.16R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   37   -1      60.61     5.83    -3.88     0.00     0.03     1.94     0.33P    0.97R    0.03  
Barnsley         27   36   -4      58.06     6.03   -10.17     0.00     0.02     0.91     0.14P    3.42R    0.19  
Peterborough     27   33   +1      58.04     6.36    -1.46     0.00     0.02     1.23     0.20P    3.89R    0.29  
Portsmouth       26   31   +0      58.29     6.20     0.03     0.00     0.02     1.31     0.28P    2.98R    0.19  
Watford          27   30  -11      53.42     6.06   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   15.01R    1.54  
Bristol_City     27   30  -12      52.34     5.94   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   18.79R    2.19  
Millwall         27   29   -8      52.69     5.98   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   16.22R    1.98  
Ipswich          27   28  -16      50.38     6.08   -21.88     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   30.60R    5.19  
Nott'm_Forest    27   24  -22      47.49     5.92   -25.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.60R   11.80  
Doncaster        27   23  -22      41.39     5.68   -33.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.49R   48.88  
Coventry         27   22  -13      43.48     5.77   -19.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.51R   27.71  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 January 2012, Notts_County vs Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        26   60  +32      97.94     6.29    48.00    72.98    90.22    99.98    93.29P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    27   53  +28      88.59     6.11    42.78    12.12    42.89    99.22    62.90P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.42     6.19    38.30    10.15    40.15    99.06    60.44P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   53  +15      84.49     6.28    23.22     2.97    16.63    95.74    33.57P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         26   47  +21      81.42     6.45    31.62     1.72     9.39    90.87    30.09P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      72.80     6.29    20.55     0.04     0.48    49.36     9.24P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        26   42   +2      70.49     6.50     3.34     0.03     0.20    30.37     4.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth     27   40   +1      67.30     6.23     2.77     0.00     0.02    15.36     2.81P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford       27   37   +0      63.29     6.22     0.38     0.00     0.01     5.45     0.85P    0.29R    0.00  
Bury            26   37   -6      60.99     6.46   -11.76     0.00     0.00     2.92     0.30P    1.04R    0.02  
Preston         27   36   -6      62.35     6.37    -6.01     0.00     0.00     4.30     0.74P    0.53R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   27   35   -8      59.62     6.11   -10.36     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.20P    1.43R    0.02  
Notts_County    27   34   +2      60.62     6.23     2.74     0.00     0.00     2.41     0.30P    0.90R    0.01  
Hartlepool      27   34   -4      57.23     6.08    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.09P    2.99R    0.06  
Colchester      26   33   -5      59.57     6.39    -6.50     0.00     0.00     1.77     0.28P    1.69R    0.03  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.34     6.37    -8.13     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.12P    3.46R    0.07  
Tranmere        27   31   -5      54.99     6.11    -7.92     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P    6.66R    0.22  
Exeter          27   27  -15      47.62     5.92   -23.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.21R    4.57  
Walsall         27   25   -7      47.92     6.04   -11.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   35.30R    4.03  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      49.99     6.31   -11.10     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P   24.29R    2.44  
Yeovil          27   24  -15      45.44     6.02   -22.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.66R    9.35  
Wycombe         27   23  -16      43.60     6.10   -24.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.85R   15.58  
Rochdale        27   21  -25      41.82     5.96   -33.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.23R   25.74  
Chesterfield    27   20  -17      39.68     6.00   -27.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.42R   37.85  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 January 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             26   52  +22      86.65     6.43    32.97    33.97    74.40    98.21    81.29P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      83.11     6.58    23.58    15.69    51.51    93.66    60.96P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           26   52  +16      80.32     6.40    17.34     7.32    33.03    86.96    43.15P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              26   49  +21      85.81     6.33    34.92    29.71    70.96    97.75    80.54P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   48  +15      81.73     6.37    24.22    10.36    43.29    91.78    57.90P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   47   +9      76.10     6.29    13.55     1.94    14.17    68.81    27.79P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   42  +11      69.25     6.17    12.94     0.12     1.94    28.66     7.73P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           26   41   +9      72.74     6.53    15.47     0.67     6.84    50.15    18.39P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   41   -1      64.87     6.20    -4.70     0.03     0.35     9.54     1.83P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   27   40   +5      67.13     6.21     6.65     0.06     0.92    17.74     4.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe                27   39   -1      66.59     6.29     1.14     0.03     0.64    15.10     4.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Port_Vale            27   38   +5      66.16     6.24     8.12     0.03     0.52    14.72     3.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham            26   37   +3      67.54     6.51     7.62     0.08     1.30    20.84     6.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      62.12     6.25     8.94     0.00     0.11     5.26     1.24P    0.11R    0.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   35  -13      55.11     6.05   -23.14     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P    2.63R    0.75  
Macclesfield         27   30   -6      52.57     5.96   -10.90     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    5.10R    1.51  
Bristol_Rovers       27   30  -14      53.60     6.27   -18.19     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    4.96R    1.43  
Barnet               26   29  -13      50.78     6.19   -22.20     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   10.70R    3.85  
Aldershot            26   28  -10      52.80     6.25   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    5.80R    1.92  
Bradford             26   27   -5      50.48     6.21   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   10.61R    3.86  
Hereford             27   26  -16      46.05     5.86   -24.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   31.06R   13.79  
Plymouth             27   22  -20      46.79     6.27   -22.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.27R   12.73  
Dag_&_Red            27   21  -21      43.80     6.18   -26.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.77R   25.33  
Northampton          27   21  -23      42.48     6.04   -30.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.95R   34.81  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 25 January 2012, Luton vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     29   66  +33      96.18     5.72    43.91    44.79    99.76    58.69P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   65  +34      96.35     5.50    46.63    47.47    99.83    62.70P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              30   56  +31      88.78     5.11    49.19     7.12    96.89    43.44P    0.00     0.00  
York               30   53  +29      81.83     5.43    39.84     0.47    73.91    16.65P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      30   53  +15      78.81     5.60    20.88     0.12    48.96     7.30P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          30   51   +6      73.96     5.58     7.44     0.00    16.34     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      29   49  +14      75.64     5.75    19.04     0.02    26.89     4.22P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          30   49   -7      69.31     5.62   -10.23     0.00     4.11     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            30   48  +16      74.34     5.54    23.05     0.01    21.04     3.39P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          29   46  +10      71.87     5.87    13.83     0.01    10.59     1.54P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             30   45   +2      65.67     5.49    -0.16     0.00     1.15     0.09P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       30   42  +12      63.33     5.48    11.16     0.00     0.45     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     30   39   -5      58.19     5.62   -10.14     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.03R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   37   +0      57.98     5.56    -1.84     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.06R    0.00  
Tamworth           28   34   -9      52.25     5.61   -19.96     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.23R    0.04  
Lincoln_City       30   30  -13      53.88     5.62   -10.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.08R    0.03  
AFC_Telford        30   28  -14      45.88     5.56   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.96R    1.30  
Darlington         30   27   -7      49.94     5.47    -5.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.53R    0.23  
Stockport          31   25  -19      45.18     5.40   -19.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.31R    2.07  
Alfreton_Town      30   25  -28      38.35     4.97   -44.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.70R   20.63  
Kettering          30   25  -37      41.83     5.37   -45.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.23R    7.68  
Hayes_&_Yeading    30   24  -22      40.18     5.24   -33.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.78R   11.07  
Newport_County     28   23  -10      46.89     5.94   -11.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.20R    1.25  
Bath_City          29   18  -31      34.10     5.36   -43.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.88R   55.69  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10