Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 26 January 2012 at 08:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 January 2012, Arsenal vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        22   54  +42      87.80     5.12    62.20    60.59    96.62    99.55    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   51  +33      85.98     4.88    55.05    38.53    93.90    99.10    99.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   46  +17      73.49     5.47    25.72     0.60     5.63    51.17    84.41    99.18     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   41  +15      72.06     5.23    29.81     0.28     3.62    41.42    80.38    98.77     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   36   +6      64.91     5.57    17.46     0.01     0.20     6.46    23.25    85.16     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       22   36   +2      58.68     5.52     2.79     0.00     0.01     0.58     3.47    39.59     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   35   +4      61.54     5.49    10.70     0.00     0.02     1.71     8.47    66.52     0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           22   30  -10      48.35     5.24   -16.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.69     0.71R    0.02  
Norwich         22   29   -4      46.45     5.37   -12.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.18     1.74R    0.06  
Sunderland      22   27   +5      47.79     5.46     3.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.15     0.82R    0.02  
Aston_Villa     22   27   -3      47.39     5.47    -5.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.80     1.15R    0.03  
Fulham          22   26   -3      47.58     5.32    -3.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.46     0.90R    0.03  
Swansea         22   26   -4      44.08     5.33    -9.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32     4.54R    0.25  
Everton         22   26   -4      47.75     5.47    -4.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.97     0.91R    0.03  
West_Brom       22   25   -9      43.20     5.29   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     6.78R    0.38  
QPR             22   20  -15      34.61     5.03   -27.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.07R   11.04  
Bolton          22   19  -19      37.44     5.40   -26.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.42R    5.76  
Blackburn       22   18  -12      35.70     5.28   -20.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    45.03R    8.92  
Wolverhampton   22   18  -15      34.80     5.30   -23.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.57R   11.80  
Wigan           22   15  -26      28.64     4.90   -40.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.34R   61.68  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 January 2012, Southampton vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         27   53  +19      86.24     6.20    29.64    52.05    74.19    97.87    81.03P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   50  +20      80.72     6.25    27.17    17.73    40.94    88.99    53.14P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   49  +15      80.66     6.16    23.49    16.33    38.64    88.57    52.40P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    27   45   +3      71.75     6.05     4.25     0.95     3.82    38.35    10.64P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             27   45   +3      71.93     5.95     4.56     1.02     3.96    39.13    10.84P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   43  +16      77.37     6.33    25.93     7.83    22.24    76.69    40.10P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        27   42   +9      73.13     6.39    16.63     2.19     7.64    51.02    18.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading          27   42   +7      71.75     6.07    12.36     0.98     4.18    40.92    13.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds_United     27   42   +5      69.48     6.18     7.11     0.49     2.17    27.25     7.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton         27   41   +1      65.23     6.09    -1.31     0.07     0.37     9.48     1.95P    0.14R    0.00  
Derby            27   41   -2      64.52     6.00    -5.69     0.04     0.24     7.32     1.28P    0.18R    0.00  
Burnley          27   40   +6      67.35     6.13     7.80     0.21     1.07    17.30     4.55P    0.04R    0.00  
Leicester        27   38   +6      65.34     6.16     7.88     0.09     0.46    11.45     2.97P    0.14R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   37   -1      60.64     5.86    -3.84     0.01     0.03     1.87     0.33P    1.05R    0.03  
Barnsley         27   36   -4      58.11     5.99   -10.09     0.00     0.01     0.92     0.15P    3.14R    0.17  
Peterborough     27   33   +1      58.05     6.38    -1.45     0.01     0.03     1.30     0.26P    3.95R    0.31  
Portsmouth       26   31   +0      58.34     6.24     0.06     0.00     0.02     1.33     0.30P    3.15R    0.21  
Watford          27   30  -11      53.41     6.07   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   14.67R    1.54  
Bristol_City     27   30  -12      52.32     5.95   -17.35     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   19.05R    2.21  
Millwall         27   29   -8      52.73     6.00   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   16.17R    1.94  
Ipswich          27   28  -16      50.34     6.04   -21.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   30.11R    5.02  
Nott'm_Forest    27   24  -22      47.39     5.93   -25.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.96R   12.11  
Doncaster        27   23  -22      41.42     5.66   -33.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.47R   48.51  
Coventry         27   22  -13      43.43     5.78   -19.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.75R   27.95  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 January 2012, Notts_County vs Preston; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        26   60  +32      97.91     6.27    47.90    72.68    90.22    99.99    93.28P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    27   53  +28      88.61     6.12    42.83    12.26    43.09    99.15    63.30P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.35     6.20    38.20    10.24    39.68    99.07    60.42P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   53  +15      84.50     6.37    23.22     3.14    16.94    95.61    33.98P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         26   47  +21      81.46     6.44    31.69     1.59     9.36    91.15    29.93P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       27   45  +18      72.77     6.26    20.53     0.05     0.47    48.92     8.76P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        26   42   +2      70.57     6.49     3.44     0.03     0.20    30.72     4.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth     27   40   +1      67.25     6.24     2.65     0.00     0.03    15.14     2.75P    0.04R    0.00  
Brentford       27   37   +0      63.24     6.24     0.31     0.00     0.00     5.55     0.80P    0.31R    0.00  
Bury            26   37   -6      60.94     6.45   -11.87     0.00     0.01     2.95     0.34P    1.00R    0.01  
Preston         27   36   -6      62.41     6.38    -5.92     0.00     0.00     4.33     0.76P    0.60R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient   27   35   -8      59.52     6.16   -10.49     0.00     0.00     1.29     0.18P    1.54R    0.03  
Notts_County    27   34   +2      60.66     6.25     2.82     0.00     0.00     2.47     0.35P    0.89R    0.01  
Hartlepool      27   34   -4      57.32     6.10    -8.17     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.08P    2.94R    0.06  
Colchester      26   33   -5      59.64     6.44    -6.42     0.00     0.00     1.91     0.26P    1.70R    0.02  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.38     6.28    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.08P    3.20R    0.08  
Tranmere        27   31   -5      54.90     6.07    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    6.68R    0.25  
Exeter          27   27  -15      47.66     5.93   -23.30     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    40.30R    4.46  
Walsall         27   25   -7      48.05     6.03   -11.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   34.30R    3.81  
Scunthorpe      27   25   -9      50.00     6.32   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   24.61R    2.37  
Yeovil          27   24  -15      45.48     5.99   -22.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   53.49R    9.21  
Wycombe         27   23  -16      43.53     6.07   -25.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.40R   15.65  
Rochdale        27   21  -25      41.88     5.97   -33.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.15R   25.11  
Chesterfield    27   20  -17      39.57     6.05   -28.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.85R   38.92  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 24 January 2012, AFC_Wimbledon vs Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             26   52  +23      86.91     6.42    34.36    36.04    76.48    98.43    83.05P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      82.98     6.50    23.34    14.39    51.36    93.60    60.83P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           26   52  +16      80.27     6.39    17.27     7.10    32.85    86.81    43.09P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              26   49  +21      85.88     6.37    35.02    30.31    71.57    97.73    80.84P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   48  +14      81.46     6.37    22.82     9.32    41.85    90.96    55.90P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   47   +9      75.99     6.22    13.44     1.89    13.70    68.55    27.59P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   42  +11      69.31     6.14    13.04     0.16     1.89    29.16     8.00P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           26   41   +9      72.67     6.49    15.42     0.59     6.42    50.12    18.02P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   41   -1      64.82     6.21    -4.81     0.01     0.32     9.33     1.79P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   27   40   +5      67.12     6.20     6.63     0.03     0.85    17.74     4.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                27   39   -1      66.74     6.31     1.41     0.04     0.76    15.81     4.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale            27   38   +5      66.30     6.23     8.29     0.04     0.58    15.13     4.14P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham            26   37   +3      67.54     6.52     7.64     0.08     1.25    20.68     6.12P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      62.11     6.24     8.95     0.00     0.12     5.27     1.29P    0.08R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   35  -13      55.21     6.11   -23.07     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.03P    2.76R    0.73  
Macclesfield         27   30   -6      52.70     6.01   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    5.16R    1.60  
Bristol_Rovers       27   30  -14      53.69     6.27   -18.04     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    4.60R    1.37  
Barnet               26   29  -13      50.75     6.17   -22.29     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   10.82R    3.65  
Aldershot            26   28  -10      52.76     6.22   -13.82     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    5.84R    1.92  
Bradford             26   27   -5      50.45     6.18   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   10.31R    3.67  
Hereford             27   26  -16      46.12     5.90   -24.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   30.68R   13.72  
Plymouth             27   22  -20      46.59     6.29   -22.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   28.28R   13.44  
Dag_&_Red            27   21  -21      43.89     6.18   -25.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.14R   24.71  
Northampton          27   21  -23      42.44     6.03   -30.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.27R   35.17  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 25 January 2012, Luton vs Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Fleetwood_Town     29   66  +33      96.02     5.65    43.69    44.15    99.75    58.33P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   65  +34      96.32     5.48    46.59    48.04    99.85    63.07P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              30   56  +31      88.81     5.11    49.27     7.16    97.00    43.50P    0.00     0.00  
York               30   53  +29      81.70     5.41    39.61     0.47    73.36    16.26P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      30   53  +15      78.80     5.58    20.85     0.13    49.39     7.58P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          30   51   +6      73.93     5.57     7.36     0.01    16.28     1.60P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      29   49  +14      75.58     5.74    18.97     0.02    26.97     4.23P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          30   49   -7      69.26     5.65   -10.35     0.00     4.20     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            30   48  +16      74.24     5.54    22.91     0.00    20.70     3.50P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          29   46  +10      71.92     5.82    13.93     0.00    10.93     1.52P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             30   45   +2      65.74     5.48    -0.08     0.00     1.09     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       30   42  +12      63.42     5.48    11.31     0.00     0.41     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Braintree_Town     30   39   -5      58.31     5.58    -9.93     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   37   +0      57.96     5.60    -1.94     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.06R    0.00  
Tamworth           28   34   -9      52.39     5.61   -19.68     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.34R    0.03  
Lincoln_City       30   30  -13      53.78     5.60   -10.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.98R    0.05  
AFC_Telford        30   28  -14      45.88     5.53   -20.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.65R    1.34  
Darlington         30   27   -7      49.91     5.44    -5.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.37R    0.21  
Stockport          31   25  -19      45.19     5.43   -19.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.40R    2.11  
Alfreton_Town      30   25  -28      38.33     4.97   -44.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.86R   20.99  
Kettering          30   25  -37      41.78     5.31   -45.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.77R    7.77  
Hayes_&_Yeading    30   24  -22      40.20     5.25   -33.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.10R   10.99  
Newport_County     28   23  -10      47.03     5.89   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.68R    1.28  
Bath_City          29   18  -31      34.15     5.35   -43.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.75R   55.21  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10