Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 24 January 2012 at 08:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 January 2012, Arsenal vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        22   54  +42      87.87     5.10    62.27    61.21    96.86    99.63    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         22   51  +33      85.96     4.89    55.07    37.96    93.85    99.13    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       22   46  +17      73.36     5.47    25.59     0.52     5.54    50.91    83.75    99.15     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   41  +15      72.02     5.23    29.74     0.30     3.57    41.31    79.89    98.81     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   36   +6      64.91     5.56    17.47     0.01     0.15     6.66    23.79    84.88     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       22   36   +2      58.75     5.53     2.89     0.00     0.01     0.65     3.69    39.80     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   35   +4      61.59     5.50    10.75     0.00     0.02     1.71     8.80    66.56     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           22   30  -10      48.34     5.24   -16.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.72     0.72R    0.02  
Norwich         22   29   -4      46.44     5.36   -12.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.16     1.94R    0.05  
Sunderland      22   27   +5      47.86     5.45     3.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.32     0.91R    0.01  
Aston_Villa     22   27   -3      47.47     5.44    -5.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.63     1.08R    0.03  
Fulham          22   26   -3      47.60     5.31    -3.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.52     0.98R    0.03  
Swansea         22   26   -4      43.98     5.34    -9.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.33     4.57R    0.26  
Everton         22   26   -4      47.70     5.48    -4.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.90     0.98R    0.03  
West_Brom       22   25   -9      43.17     5.31   -16.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     7.26R    0.40  
QPR             22   20  -15      34.67     5.04   -27.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.60R   11.08  
Bolton          22   19  -19      37.38     5.40   -26.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    35.79R    6.11  
Blackburn       22   18  -12      35.63     5.28   -20.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.78R    9.33  
Wolverhampton   22   18  -15      34.87     5.33   -23.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.45R   11.86  
Wigan           22   15  -26      28.71     4.92   -40.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.95R   60.79  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 23 January 2012, Southampton vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         27   53  +19      86.20     6.21    29.58    51.33    74.03    97.69    81.09P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      27   50  +20      80.83     6.28    27.32    18.49    41.71    89.45    54.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   49  +15      80.62     6.18    23.43    16.42    38.93    88.32    52.23P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    27   45   +3      71.71     6.05     4.17     0.93     3.89    38.12    10.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull             27   45   +3      71.92     5.89     4.58     0.87     3.78    39.02    10.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham       26   43  +16      77.37     6.34    25.94     8.05    22.13    76.69    40.24P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        27   42   +9      72.97     6.36    16.37     2.02     7.09    50.20    18.08P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          27   42   +7      71.72     6.12    12.31     0.99     4.16    40.62    13.65P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United     27   42   +5      69.47     6.21     7.11     0.50     2.17    27.30     7.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Brighton         27   41   +1      65.39     6.09    -1.12     0.06     0.35    10.12     2.07P    0.14R    0.00  
Derby            27   41   -2      64.56     5.99    -5.65     0.05     0.25     7.33     1.21P    0.19R    0.00  
Burnley          27   40   +6      67.45     6.15     7.93     0.21     1.03    17.83     4.57P    0.06R    0.00  
Leicester        27   38   +6      65.46     6.18     8.01     0.07     0.43    11.81     3.10P    0.14R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   27   37   -1      60.60     5.85    -3.91     0.00     0.02     1.96     0.31P    0.97R    0.05  
Barnsley         27   36   -4      57.96     5.98   -10.30     0.00     0.01     0.86     0.14P    3.45R    0.15  
Peterborough     27   33   +1      57.88     6.41    -1.70     0.00     0.01     1.19     0.23P    4.41R    0.32  
Portsmouth       26   31   +0      58.34     6.19     0.12     0.00     0.01     1.19     0.28P    3.02R    0.16  
Watford          27   30  -11      53.43     6.10   -15.27     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   14.73R    1.55  
Bristol_City     27   30  -12      52.41     5.97   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   18.58R    1.95  
Millwall         27   29   -8      52.85     6.01   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   15.54R    1.87  
Ipswich          27   28  -16      50.30     6.07   -21.99     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    30.20R    5.45  
Nott'm_Forest    27   24  -22      47.36     5.92   -25.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    50.48R   11.95  
Doncaster        27   23  -22      41.40     5.63   -33.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.73R   48.43  
Coventry         27   22  -13      43.46     5.81   -19.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.34R   28.09  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2012, Bournemouth vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        26   60  +32      97.94     6.24    47.99    73.00    90.25    99.99    93.41P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    27   53  +28      88.50     6.12    42.63    11.65    42.13    99.27    62.60P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.36     6.19    38.15     9.94    39.24    99.15    59.64P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   50  +13      82.79     6.54    21.07     1.95    11.77    93.24    28.82P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         25   47  +23      83.45     6.67    34.58     3.41    16.06    94.65    37.11P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       26   42  +16      70.51     6.47    17.65     0.02     0.28    36.74     6.57P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle        26   42   +2      70.60     6.45     3.48     0.02     0.23    33.86     5.16P    0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth     27   40   +1      67.30     6.26     2.71     0.00     0.03    17.56     3.03P    0.04R    0.00  
Brentford       27   37   +0      63.28     6.24     0.36     0.00     0.00     6.32     0.90P    0.30R    0.00  
Bury            26   37   -6      60.95     6.43   -11.81     0.00     0.00     3.20     0.35P    1.01R    0.02  
Preston         26   35   -6      62.80     6.63    -5.94     0.00     0.01     6.27     1.05P    0.61R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient   27   35   -8      59.55     6.14   -10.42     0.00     0.00     1.53     0.23P    1.64R    0.02  
Hartlepool      27   34   -4      57.24     6.07    -8.29     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.10P    3.02R    0.07  
Notts_County    26   33   +2      61.17     6.48     2.98     0.00     0.00     3.79     0.56P    0.92R    0.02  
Colchester      26   33   -5      59.68     6.43    -6.41     0.00     0.00     2.28     0.30P    1.71R    0.03  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.31     6.29    -8.12     0.00     0.00     0.93     0.13P    3.56R    0.07  
Tranmere        27   31   -5      54.87     6.06    -8.07     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P    6.88R    0.23  
Exeter          27   27  -15      47.66     5.93   -23.35     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   41.05R    4.53  
Scunthorpe      26   25   -7      51.56     6.55    -8.75     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   18.57R    1.56  
Walsall         27   25   -7      47.86     6.02   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    36.00R    4.03  
Yeovil          27   24  -15      45.44     6.01   -22.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.66R    9.37  
Wycombe         27   23  -16      43.52     6.06   -25.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.09R   15.71  
Rochdale        27   21  -25      41.81     5.96   -33.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.04R   25.88  
Chesterfield    27   20  -17      39.63     6.05   -27.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.90R   38.47  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2012, Aldershot vs Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             26   52  +23      87.06     6.40    34.61    36.63    77.44    98.62    83.88P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      82.91     6.54    23.25    14.45    50.66    93.60    59.93P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           26   52  +16      80.42     6.37    17.47     7.15    33.63    87.77    43.61P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              26   49  +21      85.87     6.38    35.01    29.68    71.56    97.66    81.25P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   48  +14      81.60     6.37    23.07     9.67    42.84    91.68    57.14P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              26   44   +8      74.86     6.48    13.16     1.42    11.22    62.43    24.20P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   42  +11      69.28     6.19    13.00     0.14     1.98    29.89     8.34P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           26   41   +9      72.61     6.54    15.30     0.66     6.64    50.61    18.40P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   41   -1      64.81     6.23    -4.81     0.02     0.35     9.89     2.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   27   40   +5      67.10     6.22     6.61     0.05     0.89    18.48     5.21P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe                27   39   -1      66.58     6.25     1.14     0.03     0.70    15.65     3.98P    0.02R    0.00  
Port_Vale            27   38   +5      66.18     6.21     8.16     0.02     0.60    15.28     4.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham            26   37   +3      67.75     6.51     7.92     0.07     1.36    22.22     6.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      62.00     6.22     8.79     0.00     0.12     5.31     1.23P    0.09R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   32  -14      53.36     6.26   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    5.87R    1.82  
Macclesfield         26   30   -5      54.33     6.23    -9.40     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    3.36R    0.99  
Bristol_Rovers       27   30  -14      53.69     6.25   -18.06     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    4.89R    1.64  
Barnet               26   29  -13      50.75     6.20   -22.32     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   11.43R    3.95  
Aldershot            26   28  -10      52.80     6.22   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    5.83R    1.96  
Bradford             26   27   -5      50.39     6.21   -10.91     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   10.98R    4.05  
Hereford             27   26  -16      46.04     5.86   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.69R   14.40  
Plymouth             27   22  -20      46.53     6.28   -22.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.10R   13.86  
Dag_&_Red            26   21  -20      44.79     6.38   -25.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   40.55R   21.80  
Northampton          27   21  -23      42.52     6.06   -30.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.15R   35.51  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2012, AFC_Telford vs Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            28   65  +35      98.48     5.65    48.79    59.38    99.89    71.31P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     28   63  +31      95.40     5.85    43.35    31.67    99.49    49.06P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              29   55  +31      90.08     5.26    50.92     8.32    97.39    45.24P    0.00     0.00  
York               29   52  +29      82.10     5.63    39.69     0.45    71.49    16.08P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      29   52  +15      79.04     5.82    20.65     0.14    47.05     7.13P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          29   51   +7      75.75     5.83     9.05     0.02    23.54     2.36P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      29   49  +14      75.63     5.76    19.05     0.01    24.24     3.73P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          29   49   -5      70.67     5.85    -8.19     0.00     6.09     0.36P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            29   47  +16      74.65     5.77    22.86     0.01    20.82     3.46P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          28   45  +10      71.45     5.99    12.50     0.00     8.53     1.11P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             29   44   +2      65.88     5.72    -0.47     0.00     1.23     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       29   39  +11      61.12     5.66     9.32     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     29   39   -3      59.05     5.79    -9.15     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   34   -3      56.00     5.81    -5.56     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.19R    0.00  
Tamworth           27   34   -6      53.81     5.86   -16.64     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.52R    0.01  
Darlington         29   27   -6      51.92     5.65    -3.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.44R    0.07  
AFC_Telford        29   27  -14      45.90     5.78   -20.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.37R    1.18  
Lincoln_City       29   27  -15      52.37     5.85   -11.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.62R    0.10  
Stockport          30   24  -19      46.06     5.63   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.58R    1.27  
Newport_County     28   23  -10      46.83     5.91   -11.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.89R    0.92  
Alfreton_Town      29   22  -31      35.68     5.15   -49.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.14R   37.24  
Kettering          29   22  -38      39.83     5.52   -47.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.09R   12.78  
Hayes_&_Yeading    29   21  -23      37.96     5.40   -35.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.16R   17.92  
Bath_City          28   18  -28      36.60     5.61   -38.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.97R   28.52  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10