Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 22 January 2012 at 08:27:19 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2012, Bolton vs Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        21   51  +41      86.83     5.27    62.12    61.52    94.31    99.11    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         21   48  +32      84.54     5.12    54.36    36.22    88.94    97.82    99.70   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       21   46  +18      74.25     5.65    25.64     1.76    10.98    54.51    84.18    99.26     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   41  +15      72.00     5.24    29.76     0.45     4.97    37.83    76.75    98.75     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         21   36   +7      66.17     5.76    18.29     0.05     0.76     8.78    28.86    88.20     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       22   36   +2      58.71     5.50     2.78     0.00     0.01     0.48     2.96    38.63     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   35   +4      61.52     5.48    10.67     0.00     0.04     1.48     7.55    64.94     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           22   30  -10      48.27     5.26   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.54     0.74R    0.01  
Norwich         22   29   -4      46.38     5.39   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.05     1.88R    0.06  
Sunderland      22   27   +5      47.87     5.47     3.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.25     0.90R    0.03  
Aston_Villa     22   27   -3      47.34     5.42    -6.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.53     1.12R    0.05  
Fulham          22   26   -3      47.60     5.36    -3.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.40     0.92R    0.03  
Swansea         22   26   -4      44.03     5.30    -9.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     4.64R    0.23  
Everton         22   26   -4      47.73     5.45    -4.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.82     0.92R    0.02  
West_Brom       22   25   -9      43.23     5.30   -16.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     6.81R    0.44  
QPR             22   20  -15      34.65     5.01   -27.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.83R   11.13  
Bolton          22   19  -19      37.41     5.35   -26.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    35.58R    5.78  
Blackburn       22   18  -12      35.68     5.25   -20.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.48R    8.93  
Wolverhampton   22   18  -15      34.85     5.33   -23.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.17R   12.11  
Wigan           22   15  -26      28.70     4.94   -40.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.02R   61.17  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2012, Barnsley vs Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
West_Ham         27   53  +19      86.21     6.18    29.56    46.02    71.52    98.00    79.39P    0.00     0.00  
Southampton      26   50  +22      83.32     6.45    31.08    28.26    54.83    94.23    65.14P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   49  +15      80.71     6.15    23.56    14.28    35.15    89.05    49.99P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    27   45   +3      71.63     6.06     4.09     0.78     3.18    37.57     9.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull             27   45   +3      71.97     5.86     4.67     0.76     3.14    39.37     9.91P    0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham       26   43  +16      77.25     6.33    25.72     6.68    19.23    76.10    37.89P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool        27   42   +9      73.00     6.35    16.41     1.70     6.16    51.03    17.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading          27   42   +7      71.73     6.10    12.34     0.85     3.46    41.22    13.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds_United     27   42   +5      69.40     6.17     7.02     0.40     1.81    26.90     6.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Brighton         27   41   +1      65.30     6.08    -1.21     0.06     0.29     9.71     1.79P    0.14R    0.00  
Derby            27   41   -2      64.61     5.97    -5.54     0.03     0.19     7.58     1.23P    0.19R    0.00  
Burnley          27   40   +6      67.42     6.12     7.87     0.18     0.77    17.63     4.34P    0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   37   -1      60.53     5.82    -3.96     0.00     0.03     1.84     0.30P    0.97R    0.04  
Barnsley         27   36   -4      58.02     5.97   -10.25     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.13P    3.28R    0.19  
Leicester        26   35   +4      62.85     6.36     4.49     0.01     0.21     6.10     1.51P    0.58R    0.02  
Peterborough     27   33   +1      57.93     6.38    -1.64     0.00     0.02     1.19     0.21P    4.29R    0.33  
Portsmouth       26   31   +0      58.43     6.23     0.16     0.00     0.02     1.36     0.36P    2.93R    0.20  
Watford          27   30  -11      53.32     6.09   -15.44     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   15.02R    1.71  
Bristol_City     27   30  -12      52.41     5.91   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   18.11R    2.17  
Millwall         27   29   -8      52.76     6.00   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   15.92R    1.97  
Ipswich          27   28  -16      50.33     6.07   -22.01     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    30.46R    5.33  
Nott'm_Forest    27   24  -22      47.45     5.94   -25.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.76R   11.95  
Doncaster        27   23  -22      41.49     5.63   -33.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.40R   48.06  
Coventry         27   22  -13      43.43     5.76   -19.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.88R   28.04  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2012, Bournemouth vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        26   60  +32      98.00     6.29    48.06    72.78    90.20    99.98    93.34P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    27   53  +28      88.51     6.17    42.65    11.81    42.44    99.21    62.63P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   53  +24      88.39     6.18    38.26     9.95    39.68    99.20    60.19P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       26   50  +13      82.67     6.56    20.92     1.98    11.40    92.78    28.05P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         25   47  +23      83.41     6.62    34.56     3.42    15.75    94.87    37.20P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       26   42  +16      70.46     6.45    17.58     0.03     0.28    36.32     6.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle        26   42   +2      70.66     6.54     3.61     0.02     0.20    34.42     5.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth     27   40   +1      67.32     6.30     2.75     0.00     0.03    17.54     3.16P    0.03R    0.00  
Brentford       27   37   +0      63.28     6.20     0.40     0.00     0.00     6.30     0.94P    0.29R    0.00  
Bury            26   37   -6      60.93     6.47   -11.84     0.00     0.00     3.34     0.37P    1.08R    0.01  
Preston         26   35   -6      62.79     6.65    -6.00     0.00     0.01     6.34     1.09P    0.65R    0.00  
Leyton_Orient   27   35   -8      59.55     6.12   -10.45     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.21P    1.62R    0.01  
Hartlepool      27   34   -4      57.29     6.07    -8.21     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.10P    3.13R    0.06  
Notts_County    26   33   +2      61.06     6.48     2.82     0.00     0.00     3.82     0.53P    0.99R    0.02  
Colchester      26   33   -5      59.62     6.41    -6.46     0.00     0.00     2.17     0.29P    1.85R    0.05  
Oldham          26   32   -5      57.29     6.32    -8.16     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.14P    3.84R    0.10  
Tranmere        27   31   -5      54.90     6.10    -8.06     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.04P    6.87R    0.29  
Exeter          27   27  -15      47.61     5.96   -23.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.19R    4.64  
Scunthorpe      26   25   -7      51.53     6.52    -8.86     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   18.77R    1.56  
Walsall         27   25   -7      47.93     6.02   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   35.92R    4.15  
Yeovil          27   24  -15      45.53     5.99   -22.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.14R    9.23  
Wycombe         27   23  -16      43.55     6.09   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.83R   15.86  
Rochdale        27   21  -25      41.79     5.98   -33.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.15R   25.84  
Chesterfield    27   20  -17      39.72     6.05   -27.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.64R   38.18  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2012, Aldershot vs Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             26   52  +23      87.01     6.42    34.56    36.34    77.02    98.45    83.27P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   52  +18      83.02     6.52    23.43    14.69    51.49    93.90    61.19P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           26   52  +16      80.29     6.42    17.31     7.02    33.32    87.42    43.28P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              26   49  +21      85.99     6.37    35.20    30.46    72.45    97.87    81.71P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   48  +14      81.36     6.37    22.71     9.04    41.60    90.93    56.18P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              26   44   +8      74.93     6.48    13.27     1.47    11.58    63.06    24.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   42  +11      69.31     6.18    13.01     0.12     1.95    29.81     8.15P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           26   41   +9      72.64     6.49    15.33     0.69     6.51    50.56    18.37P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        27   41   -1      64.82     6.21    -4.77     0.02     0.40     9.80     1.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   27   40   +5      67.16     6.17     6.65     0.05     0.91    18.42     4.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe                27   39   -1      66.71     6.27     1.34     0.03     0.75    16.14     4.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale            27   38   +5      66.21     6.23     8.22     0.02     0.56    15.39     4.25P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            26   37   +3      67.64     6.54     7.75     0.06     1.34    21.98     6.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            27   36   +9      62.14     6.21     8.98     0.01     0.11     5.40     1.28P    0.09R    0.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        26   32  -14      53.34     6.31   -24.44     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    6.00R    1.82  
Macclesfield         26   30   -5      54.27     6.25    -9.47     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    3.37R    0.99  
Bristol_Rovers       27   30  -14      53.68     6.30   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    4.88R    1.54  
Barnet               26   29  -13      50.76     6.20   -22.32     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   11.16R    3.93  
Aldershot            26   28  -10      52.72     6.23   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    6.14R    2.06  
Bradford             26   27   -5      50.42     6.27   -10.86     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   11.12R    4.02  
Hereford             27   26  -16      45.89     5.90   -25.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.74R   15.12  
Plymouth             27   22  -20      46.71     6.23   -22.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.16R   13.29  
Dag_&_Red            26   21  -20      44.73     6.37   -25.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   40.55R   22.00  
Northampton          27   21  -23      42.57     6.10   -30.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.74R   35.22  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 January 2012, AFC_Telford vs Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            28   65  +35      98.40     5.73    48.65    58.77    99.90    70.65P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     28   63  +31      95.31     5.89    43.20    31.93    99.35    48.93P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              29   55  +31      90.10     5.28    50.96     8.71    97.30    45.78P    0.00     0.00  
York               29   52  +29      82.07     5.59    39.60     0.42    70.96    15.83P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      29   52  +15      79.13     5.84    20.77     0.11    47.13     7.31P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          29   51   +7      75.84     5.85     9.21     0.01    23.66     2.35P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      29   49  +14      75.71     5.74    19.16     0.03    24.55     3.75P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          29   49   -5      70.66     5.82    -8.19     0.00     5.91     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            29   47  +16      74.74     5.78    23.04     0.02    21.31     3.74P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          28   45  +10      71.45     6.00    12.46     0.00     8.45     1.09P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             29   44   +2      65.90     5.73    -0.42     0.00     1.24     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       29   39  +11      61.14     5.65     9.36     0.00     0.17     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     29   39   -3      59.00     5.75    -9.27     0.00     0.06     0.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   34   -3      55.88     5.77    -5.72     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.20R    0.00  
Tamworth           27   34   -6      53.76     5.87   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.61R    0.01  
Darlington         29   27   -6      51.83     5.69    -3.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.45R    0.07  
AFC_Telford        29   27  -14      45.83     5.70   -20.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.55R    1.14  
Lincoln_City       29   27  -15      52.35     5.85   -11.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.68R    0.10  
Stockport          30   24  -19      46.08     5.61   -18.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.43R    1.26  
Newport_County     28   23  -10      46.91     5.95   -11.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.01R    0.92  
Alfreton_Town      29   22  -31      35.70     5.17   -49.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.80R   37.18  
Kettering          29   22  -38      39.89     5.55   -47.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.02R   12.78  
Hayes_&_Yeading    29   21  -23      37.96     5.48   -35.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.31R   18.02  
Bath_City          28   18  -28      36.60     5.62   -38.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.91R   28.50  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10