Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 19 January 2012 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 January 2012, Wigan vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        21   51  +41      86.74     5.33    61.97    60.37    93.12    98.62    99.82   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         21   48  +32      84.65     5.10    54.42    36.92    87.99    97.43    99.65   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       21   46  +18      74.20     5.62    25.55     1.64    10.20    48.44    80.02    98.63     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         21   40  +15      73.29     5.44    31.30     1.02     7.79    43.63    78.26    98.44     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         21   36   +7      66.21     5.77    18.32     0.05     0.67     7.71    24.45    82.96     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       21   36   +5      60.61     5.74     6.72     0.00     0.03     0.93     4.86    42.16     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       21   35   +6      63.90     5.66    14.11     0.01     0.19     3.23    12.85    71.08     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           21   30   -9      50.05     5.48   -14.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     2.06     0.26R    0.01  
Norwich         21   28   -4      45.79     5.60   -14.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.61     2.11R    0.08  
Swansea         21   26   -2      45.48     5.52    -7.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43     2.16R    0.11  
Everton         21   25   -4      48.77     5.68    -3.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.82     0.55R    0.02  
Sunderland      21   24   +3      46.22     5.65     1.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77     1.70R    0.06  
Aston_Villa     21   24   -4      45.75     5.66    -6.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.56     2.19R    0.13  
Fulham          21   23   -6      45.42     5.54    -7.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42     2.11R    0.13  
West_Brom       21   22  -10      41.12     5.51   -17.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    11.68R    1.34  
Wolverhampton   21   18  -14      36.25     5.54   -22.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.70R    8.02  
Blackburn       21   17  -12      35.39     5.51   -21.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.98R   10.25  
QPR             21   17  -17      32.92     5.21   -29.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.02R   20.71  
Bolton          21   16  -21      34.76     5.52   -29.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.12R   13.64  
Wigan           21   15  -24      30.03     5.16   -38.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.41R   45.49  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 January 2012, Brighton vs Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      26   50  +22      83.30     6.41    31.01    31.43    58.23    94.40    67.75P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         26   50  +18      85.23     6.36    29.47    43.43    68.39    96.90    76.89P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   46  +14      79.46     6.31    23.08    12.53    31.03    84.89    45.87P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    26   45   +5      73.43     6.23     6.79     1.98     6.97    50.33    15.20P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          26   42   +8      73.81     6.28    14.35     2.26     7.96    55.43    20.49P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             26   42   +2      69.72     6.09     2.82     0.42     1.95    27.33     7.05P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham       25   40  +13      75.83     6.58    23.11     5.54    15.83    68.70    32.67P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            26   40   -2      64.26     6.17    -6.68     0.03     0.24     7.55     1.35P    0.28R    0.01  
Blackpool        26   39   +8      71.96     6.56    16.24     1.58     5.74    45.30    16.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          26   39   +6      68.31     6.30     8.57     0.36     1.54    22.86     6.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds_United     26   39   +3      68.22     6.39     5.78     0.33     1.52    22.75     5.66P    0.05R    0.00  
Brighton         26   38   +0      63.03     6.26    -3.21     0.02     0.17     5.96     1.17P    0.47R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   26   37   +0      61.35     6.01    -3.79     0.01     0.08     3.15     0.55P    0.76R    0.03  
Barnsley         26   36   -2      60.06     6.22    -7.13     0.01     0.03     2.23     0.36P    1.71R    0.08  
Leicester        26   35   +4      62.97     6.36     4.66     0.05     0.22     6.50     1.60P    0.60R    0.02  
Peterborough     26   33   +2      59.98     6.65     0.45     0.02     0.08     3.04     0.59P    2.42R    0.15  
Portsmouth       25   31   +1      59.28     6.38     0.50     0.00     0.04     2.14     0.52P    2.25R    0.10  
Watford          26   30   -8      54.61     6.25   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P   10.29R    0.94  
Ipswich          26   28  -14      51.31     6.26   -20.72     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   24.32R    3.63  
Bristol_City     26   27  -13      51.04     6.10   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   24.52R    3.49  
Millwall         26   26  -10      50.45     6.15   -13.92     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   26.83R    4.10  
Nott'm_Forest    26   24  -21      48.14     6.09   -25.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   44.09R    9.21  
Doncaster        26   23  -21      42.68     5.81   -32.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.64R   34.74  
Coventry         26   19  -15      41.07     5.92   -22.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.73R   43.48  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 January 2012, Tranmere vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        25   57  +31      96.17     6.51    46.78    61.04    83.08    99.94    88.24P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       26   53  +25      89.96     6.44    39.66    19.10    49.62    99.29    66.48P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    26   50  +27      87.36     6.32    42.31    11.05    33.67    98.49    56.84P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       25   49  +13      83.66     6.73    21.78     3.41    14.29    93.41    30.67P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         24   46  +23      84.21     6.86    35.21     5.32    18.65    94.57    38.76P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       25   41  +16      70.89     6.63    17.68     0.03     0.32    36.09     6.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle        25   41   +2      71.30     6.69     4.01     0.04     0.29    35.93     5.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       26   37   +1      64.10     6.36     0.56     0.00     0.01     7.40     1.19P    0.21R    0.00  
Bournemouth     26   37   +0      65.67     6.44     1.69     0.00     0.02    10.99     1.95P    0.12R    0.00  
Preston         25   35   -4      65.09     6.88    -2.44     0.00     0.03    10.59     2.02P    0.38R    0.00  
Bury            25   34   -7      59.18     6.64   -12.99     0.00     0.00     1.89     0.21P    2.53R    0.06  
Colchester      25   33   -4      61.78     6.61    -4.26     0.00     0.01     4.04     0.66P    0.89R    0.01  
Hartlepool      26   33   -4      57.12     6.23    -9.04     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.07P    3.59R    0.06  
Notts_County    25   32   +2      61.24     6.74     2.42     0.00     0.01     4.06     0.66P    1.21R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   26   32  -10      57.26     6.33   -13.56     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.10P    4.33R    0.08  
Tranmere        26   31   -4      56.20     6.25    -7.11     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.08P    4.98R    0.12  
Oldham          25   31   -5      57.94     6.57    -7.83     0.00     0.00     1.25     0.13P    3.63R    0.08  
Exeter          26   26  -15      47.69     6.14   -23.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    41.46R    3.59  
Scunthorpe      25   24   -7      51.80     6.78    -8.98     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   18.72R    1.24  
Walsall         26   24   -7      48.00     6.29   -12.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    36.30R    3.28  
Yeovil          26   24  -14      46.95     6.24   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    45.23R    4.98  
Rochdale        26   21  -22      43.91     6.22   -29.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.82R   12.80  
Wycombe         26   20  -19      41.10     6.21   -29.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.34R   24.04  
Chesterfield    26   17  -18      37.29     6.19   -30.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.25R   49.62  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 January 2012, Accrington_Stanley vs Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             25   52  +23      88.26     6.65    34.36    41.12    79.08    98.62    84.74P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           25   52  +18      82.52     6.55    20.62    11.25    44.88    91.81    53.87P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         25   51  +18      83.65     6.84    23.77    15.87    52.92    93.23    61.65P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              25   46  +20      85.03     6.52    35.26    22.63    64.69    96.52    76.16P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   45  +14      80.02     6.58    23.13     6.33    31.96    85.71    47.46P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   41  +11      70.08     6.38    13.60     0.17     2.56    32.79     9.06P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           25   41  +10      75.12     6.69    18.10     1.59    12.16    63.17    25.81P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   41   +7      73.03     6.63    11.78     0.74     6.75    49.22    17.24P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   40   -1      65.08     6.42    -4.98     0.02     0.40    10.14     1.99P    0.03R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   39   +5      67.64     6.37     6.80     0.04     1.02    19.54     5.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham            25   37   +4      69.73     6.76     9.86     0.20     2.70    30.94     9.63P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            26   36  +10      63.63     6.46    10.14     0.01     0.26     8.54     1.98P    0.06R    0.01  
Crewe                26   36   -4      64.87     6.49    -2.01     0.02     0.37     9.75     2.50P    0.05R    0.01  
Port_Vale            26   35   +4      64.20     6.41     6.56     0.01     0.25     9.17     2.42P    0.06R    0.01  
Macclesfield         25   30   -4      54.93     6.38    -9.55     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.09P    2.98R    0.90  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   29  -15      50.35     6.39   -27.60     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   14.17R    6.01  
Aldershot            25   27  -10      53.12     6.44   -13.84     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    5.68R    2.05  
Bristol_Rovers       26   27  -16      51.11     6.43   -21.62     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   10.94R    4.40  
Bradford             25   26   -5      50.98     6.45   -10.56     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   10.25R    4.06  
Barnet               25   26  -14      48.64     6.32   -24.13     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   19.89R    9.11  
Hereford             26   25  -16      45.82     6.04   -25.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.73R   17.14  
Dag_&_Red            25   21  -17      46.44     6.60   -22.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   30.49R   15.96  
Plymouth             26   21  -20      46.73     6.52   -22.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.74R   15.02  
Northampton          26   21  -22      44.51     6.29   -28.92     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   42.94R   25.32  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 January 2012, Hayes_&_Yeading vs Ebbsfleet_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            27   62  +32      97.56     5.86    46.85    57.52    99.90    70.11P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     27   60  +30      93.46     6.08    41.89    25.70    98.97    44.29P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              28   54  +31      91.33     5.48    52.15    16.07    98.50    51.54P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          28   50   +7      76.31     6.03     9.35     0.04    31.65     3.14P    0.00     0.00  
York               28   49  +28      81.18     5.83    39.70     0.51    69.66    16.09P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      28   49  +13      77.86     6.06    19.39     0.12    44.15     6.62P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          28   48   -5      70.22     5.99    -9.44     0.00     7.03     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   46  +13      74.18     5.97    18.26     0.03    21.93     3.59P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            28   44  +10      73.02     5.99    16.73     0.00    17.35     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          27   42   +9      70.73     6.20    13.01     0.00     9.42     1.21P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             28   41   +1      63.88     5.92    -2.03     0.00     0.88     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       28   38  +11      61.40     5.87     9.21     0.00     0.36     0.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     28   38   -3      59.82     6.02    -8.40     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.05R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   28   34   -2      56.55     5.96    -5.83     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.30R    0.01  
Tamworth           26   34   -5      55.55     6.09   -14.79     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.49R    0.02  
Darlington         28   27   -5      53.39     5.86    -2.22     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.17R    0.07  
AFC_Telford        28   27  -13      47.08     5.95   -19.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.94R    1.30  
Lincoln_City       28   26  -15      52.33     6.05   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.54R    0.18  
Stockport          29   23  -19      46.12     5.82   -19.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.94R    2.06  
Newport_County     27   22  -10      47.31     6.10   -11.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.70R    1.24  
Alfreton_Town      28   22  -29      36.49     5.35   -48.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.26R   37.46  
Kettering          28   22  -35      40.58     5.65   -45.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.03R   13.42  
Hayes_&_Yeading    28   21  -22      38.57     5.58   -35.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.51R   20.07  
Bath_City          27   18  -22      38.12     5.83   -32.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.07R   24.17  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10