Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 18 January 2012 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 January 2012, Wigan vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        21   51  +41      86.81     5.31    62.05    60.70    93.43    98.68    99.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         21   48  +32      84.67     5.08    54.53    36.65    88.18    97.50    99.63    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       21   46  +18      74.16     5.62    25.47     1.59     9.85    47.79    79.88    98.59     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         21   40  +15      73.36     5.41    31.45     1.01     7.73    44.35    78.71    98.40     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         21   36   +7      66.07     5.75    18.10     0.04     0.57     7.32    23.77    82.56     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       21   36   +5      60.57     5.78     6.63     0.00     0.05     1.06     5.03    42.54     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       21   35   +6      63.86     5.69    14.04     0.01     0.20     3.30    13.02    70.83     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           21   30   -9      50.16     5.49   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.26     0.21R    0.00  
Norwich         21   28   -4      45.86     5.58   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.66     2.02R    0.09  
Swansea         21   26   -2      45.38     5.51    -7.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43     2.24R    0.11  
Everton         21   25   -4      48.74     5.67    -3.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.83     0.55R    0.02  
Sunderland      21   24   +3      46.23     5.64     1.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.82     1.58R    0.08  
Aston_Villa     21   24   -4      45.73     5.67    -6.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.61     2.27R    0.14  
Fulham          21   23   -6      45.43     5.55    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.40     2.24R    0.11  
West_Brom       21   22  -10      41.12     5.50   -17.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    11.54R    1.27  
Wolverhampton   21   18  -14      36.25     5.53   -22.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.61R    7.86  
Blackburn       21   17  -12      35.40     5.46   -21.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.92R   10.13  
QPR             21   17  -17      32.85     5.22   -29.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.26R   21.23  
Bolton          21   16  -21      34.80     5.54   -29.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.16R   13.54  
Wigan           21   15  -24      30.05     5.15   -38.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.40R   45.39  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 January 2012, Brighton vs Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      26   50  +22      83.30     6.41    31.01    30.97    57.69    94.50    67.31P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         26   50  +18      85.34     6.40    29.69    44.11    68.80    96.83    77.16P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   46  +14      79.37     6.35    22.94    12.22    30.89    84.37    45.46P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    26   45   +5      73.56     6.25     6.94     2.05     7.16    51.24    15.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Reading          26   42   +8      73.77     6.27    14.30     2.20     7.95    55.20    20.39P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             26   42   +2      69.63     6.08     2.70     0.40     1.84    26.59     6.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham       25   40  +13      75.85     6.56    23.13     5.51    15.77    68.82    32.71P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            26   40   -2      64.33     6.21    -6.61     0.03     0.27     7.88     1.38P    0.26R    0.00  
Blackpool        26   39   +8      71.84     6.61    16.09     1.69     5.74    44.27    15.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          26   39   +6      68.43     6.38     8.78     0.36     1.71    23.83     6.33P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds_United     26   39   +3      68.35     6.37     5.93     0.37     1.60    23.16     5.80P    0.04R    0.00  
Brighton         26   38   +0      63.00     6.27    -3.27     0.02     0.15     5.97     1.12P    0.43R    0.02  
Crystal_Palace   26   37   +0      61.42     5.99    -3.74     0.01     0.06     3.04     0.51P    0.67R    0.03  
Barnsley         26   36   -2      60.03     6.22    -7.21     0.01     0.04     2.30     0.39P    1.68R    0.05  
Leicester        26   35   +4      62.84     6.34     4.42     0.04     0.21     6.31     1.69P    0.56R    0.02  
Peterborough     26   33   +2      60.11     6.67     0.63     0.01     0.10     3.15     0.61P    2.18R    0.14  
Portsmouth       25   31   +1      59.30     6.38     0.54     0.00     0.04     2.16     0.52P    2.24R    0.14  
Watford          26   30   -8      54.48     6.24   -12.78     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   10.78R    0.96  
Ipswich          26   28  -14      51.30     6.30   -20.73     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   24.30R    3.65  
Bristol_City     26   27  -13      51.12     6.13   -17.71     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   24.02R    3.47  
Millwall         26   26  -10      50.40     6.18   -13.97     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   26.99R    4.17  
Nott'm_Forest    26   24  -21      48.03     6.06   -25.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.69R    9.66  
Doncaster        26   23  -21      42.58     5.84   -32.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.74R   35.18  
Coventry         26   19  -15      41.16     5.91   -22.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.36R   42.50  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 January 2012, Tranmere vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        25   57  +31      96.19     6.49    46.80    60.96    83.16    99.94    88.32P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       26   53  +25      90.05     6.43    39.80    19.45    50.08    99.37    66.78P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    26   50  +27      87.36     6.31    42.25    10.73    33.51    98.43    56.79P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       25   49  +13      83.65     6.71    21.79     3.39    14.10    93.31    30.56P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         24   46  +23      84.25     6.81    35.28     5.40    18.48    94.86    39.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       25   41  +16      70.83     6.66    17.59     0.03     0.30    36.33     6.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Carlisle        25   41   +2      71.20     6.70     3.81     0.03     0.30    35.31     5.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       26   37   +1      64.17     6.33     0.66     0.00     0.00     7.48     1.10P    0.18R    0.00  
Bournemouth     26   37   +0      65.64     6.42     1.67     0.00     0.03    10.98     1.92P    0.11R    0.00  
Preston         25   35   -4      65.06     6.85    -2.52     0.00     0.03    10.65     1.94P    0.35R    0.00  
Bury            25   34   -7      59.25     6.64   -12.80     0.00     0.00     1.95     0.17P    2.69R    0.04  
Colchester      25   33   -4      61.88     6.67    -4.14     0.00     0.00     4.40     0.65P    0.91R    0.01  
Hartlepool      26   33   -4      57.12     6.28    -9.01     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.11P    3.66R    0.07  
Notts_County    25   32   +2      61.09     6.64     2.24     0.00     0.00     3.57     0.51P    1.19R    0.01  
Leyton_Orient   26   32  -10      57.11     6.35   -13.73     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.08P    4.53R    0.08  
Tranmere        26   31   -4      56.23     6.29    -7.06     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.08P    5.15R    0.10  
Oldham          25   31   -5      57.92     6.57    -7.84     0.00     0.00     1.26     0.17P    3.53R    0.07  
Exeter          26   26  -15      47.69     6.12   -23.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   41.76R    3.48  
Scunthorpe      25   24   -7      51.88     6.79    -8.91     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   18.36R    1.22  
Walsall         26   24   -7      48.00     6.20   -12.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   36.30R    3.24  
Yeovil          26   24  -14      47.02     6.21   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.81R    4.83  
Rochdale        26   21  -22      43.90     6.17   -29.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.31R   12.58  
Wycombe         26   20  -19      41.24     6.20   -29.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.65R   23.35  
Chesterfield    26   17  -18      37.14     6.20   -30.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.51R   50.91  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 January 2012, Accrington_Stanley vs Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             25   52  +24      88.51     6.62    35.79    42.73    80.74    98.76    85.93P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           25   52  +18      82.62     6.63    20.74    11.56    45.59    91.82    54.32P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         25   51  +18      83.50     6.81    23.55    15.16    51.88    93.33    60.85P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              25   46  +20      84.98     6.57    35.18    22.01    64.88    96.41    76.12P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   45  +13      79.74     6.57    21.71     5.69    30.22    84.86    46.02P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   41  +11      70.20     6.36    13.79     0.16     2.57    33.11     9.49P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           25   41  +10      75.26     6.66    18.30     1.65    12.33    63.95    26.28P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   41   +7      73.00     6.67    11.75     0.73     6.68    48.88    17.07P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   40   -1      65.16     6.46    -4.85     0.02     0.45    10.48     2.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   39   +5      67.53     6.41     6.64     0.05     1.07    19.13     5.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Rotherham            25   37   +4      69.59     6.69     9.64     0.18     2.61    30.26     9.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            26   36  +10      63.66     6.47    10.23     0.02     0.30     8.70     2.13P    0.06R    0.00  
Crewe                26   36   -4      64.99     6.49    -1.89     0.02     0.42    10.25     2.53P    0.04R    0.01  
Port_Vale            26   35   +4      64.18     6.45     6.59     0.01     0.24     9.28     2.33P    0.04R    0.01  
Macclesfield         25   30   -4      54.85     6.35    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P    3.08R    0.94  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   29  -15      50.48     6.44   -27.34     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   14.11R    5.75  
Aldershot            25   27  -10      53.16     6.45   -13.77     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    5.79R    2.05  
Bristol_Rovers       26   27  -16      50.99     6.41   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   11.28R    4.59  
Bradford             25   26   -5      50.92     6.49   -10.67     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   10.58R    4.30  
Barnet               25   26  -14      48.68     6.38   -24.13     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   19.55R    9.06  
Hereford             26   25  -16      45.73     6.02   -25.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.08R   17.53  
Dag_&_Red            25   21  -17      46.38     6.64   -22.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   30.71R   16.12  
Plymouth             26   21  -20      46.86     6.49   -22.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   27.97R   14.37  
Northampton          26   21  -22      44.50     6.29   -28.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.69R   25.28  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 January 2012, Hayes_&_Yeading vs Ebbsfleet_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            27   62  +32      97.47     5.87    46.76    56.80    99.83    69.64P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     27   60  +30      93.47     6.10    41.86    26.05    98.89    44.43P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              28   54  +31      91.40     5.46    52.26    16.35    98.51    51.36P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          28   50   +7      76.24     6.02     9.21     0.05    30.88     3.12P    0.00     0.00  
York               28   49  +28      81.29     5.83    39.87     0.57    70.12    16.38P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      28   49  +13      77.91     6.05    19.42     0.16    44.36     6.88P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          28   48   -5      70.23     5.97    -9.48     0.00     7.27     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   46  +13      74.19     5.98    18.29     0.01    21.66     3.42P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            28   44  +10      73.03     6.02    16.81     0.01    17.50     2.76P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          27   42   +9      70.66     6.20    12.92     0.01     9.38     1.37P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             28   41   +1      63.93     5.99    -1.94     0.00     1.04     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green       28   38  +11      61.33     5.84     9.07     0.00     0.30     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     28   38   -3      59.87     6.05    -8.30     0.00     0.19     0.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   28   34   -2      56.51     6.01    -5.91     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.28R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   34   -5      55.60     6.13   -14.69     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.48R    0.01  
Darlington         28   27   -5      53.30     5.86    -2.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.32R    0.06  
AFC_Telford        28   27  -13      47.19     5.95   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.56R    1.24  
Lincoln_City       28   26  -15      52.39     6.07   -12.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.56R    0.17  
Stockport          29   23  -19      45.93     5.90   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.07R    2.29  
Newport_County     27   22  -10      47.27     6.16   -11.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.78R    1.29  
Alfreton_Town      28   22  -29      36.49     5.35   -48.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.99R   37.42  
Kettering          28   22  -35      40.68     5.68   -45.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.80R   13.05  
Hayes_&_Yeading    28   21  -22      38.58     5.62   -35.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.38R   20.10  
Bath_City          27   18  -22      38.11     5.88   -32.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.73R   24.36  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10