Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 17 January 2012 at 22:15:01 GMT

Premier League   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 16 January 2012, Wigan vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_City        21   51  +41      86.73     5.32    61.96    60.05    93.07    98.66    99.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         21   48  +32      84.67     5.13    54.51    37.07    87.75    97.23    99.59   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       21   46  +18      74.23     5.64    25.61     1.75    10.26    48.12    80.37    98.64     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         21   40  +15      73.44     5.44    31.58     1.08     8.02    44.68    78.97    98.53     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         21   36   +7      66.06     5.76    18.09     0.03     0.66     7.20    23.40    82.45     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle       21   36   +5      60.47     5.74     6.46     0.00     0.03     0.95     4.66    41.80     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       21   35   +6      63.96     5.69    14.18     0.01     0.21     3.14    13.10    71.50     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           21   30   -9      50.12     5.50   -14.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.27     0.27R    0.01  
Norwich         21   28   -4      45.81     5.56   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.58     2.11R    0.10  
Swansea         21   26   -2      45.41     5.54    -7.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.46     2.26R    0.12  
Everton         21   25   -4      48.74     5.71    -3.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.85     0.53R    0.02  
Sunderland      21   24   +3      46.21     5.64     1.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.83     1.64R    0.08  
Aston_Villa     21   24   -4      45.73     5.66    -6.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.59     2.20R    0.14  
Fulham          21   23   -6      45.49     5.54    -7.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.45     2.16R    0.08  
West_Brom       21   22  -10      41.09     5.50   -17.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    11.61R    1.20  
Wolverhampton   21   18  -14      36.18     5.53   -22.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    38.17R    8.26  
Blackburn       21   17  -12      35.31     5.45   -22.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    43.26R   10.11  
QPR             21   17  -17      32.94     5.25   -29.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.92R   20.84  
Bolton          21   16  -21      34.88     5.53   -29.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.50R   13.21  
Wigan           21   15  -24      30.04     5.15   -38.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.38R   45.83  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 January 2012, Brighton vs Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Southampton      26   50  +22      83.16     6.44    30.80    30.60    57.11    93.98    66.56P    0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         26   50  +18      85.27     6.33    29.56    43.88    68.65    96.91    77.18P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   46  +14      79.46     6.37    23.08    12.65    31.16    84.88    45.91P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough    26   45   +5      73.53     6.23     6.90     2.02     6.92    51.04    15.42P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          26   42   +8      73.74     6.27    14.23     2.25     7.97    54.85    20.36P    0.00     0.00  
Hull             26   42   +2      69.56     6.09     2.63     0.42     1.87    26.53     6.67P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham       25   40  +13      75.88     6.60    23.16     5.60    16.17    68.81    33.08P    0.00     0.00  
Derby            26   40   -2      64.18     6.23    -6.84     0.05     0.25     7.56     1.37P    0.26R    0.00  
Blackpool        26   39   +8      72.04     6.59    16.38     1.72     6.02    45.69    16.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          26   39   +6      68.41     6.33     8.76     0.41     1.69    23.43     6.31P    0.04R    0.00  
Leeds_United     26   39   +3      68.41     6.36     6.00     0.34     1.61    23.51     6.02P    0.03R    0.00  
Brighton         26   38   +0      62.97     6.27    -3.30     0.03     0.16     5.66     1.03P    0.41R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   26   37   +0      61.45     5.99    -3.66     0.01     0.06     3.08     0.54P    0.74R    0.02  
Barnsley         26   36   -2      60.04     6.23    -7.19     0.00     0.04     2.19     0.36P    1.80R    0.05  
Leicester        26   35   +4      62.85     6.33     4.47     0.02     0.21     6.34     1.57P    0.53R    0.01  
Peterborough     26   33   +2      60.04     6.62     0.48     0.01     0.07     3.04     0.57P    2.33R    0.13  
Portsmouth       25   31   +1      59.18     6.37     0.38     0.00     0.03     2.11     0.43P    2.39R    0.15  
Watford          26   30   -8      54.55     6.26   -12.67     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P   10.59R    0.94  
Ipswich          26   28  -14      51.40     6.29   -20.55     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P   24.06R    3.71  
Bristol_City     26   27  -13      51.07     6.10   -17.80     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   24.48R    3.61  
Millwall         26   26  -10      50.50     6.15   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   26.52R    4.06  
Nott'm_Forest    26   24  -21      48.13     6.01   -25.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    43.89R    8.92  
Doncaster        26   23  -21      42.62     5.84   -32.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.13R   35.22  
Coventry         26   19  -15      41.07     5.94   -22.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.78R   43.18  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 January 2012, Tranmere vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Charlton        25   57  +31      96.19     6.48    46.83    60.77    83.04    99.96    88.30P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       26   53  +25      89.99     6.42    39.69    19.14    49.26    99.36    65.93P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield    26   50  +27      87.39     6.35    42.30    10.81    33.37    98.44    56.40P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       25   49  +13      83.77     6.73    22.00     3.54    14.50    93.48    30.93P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons         24   46  +23      84.40     6.78    35.50     5.63    19.12    95.01    39.80P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage       25   41  +16      70.90     6.66    17.62     0.06     0.34    36.15     6.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Carlisle        25   41   +2      71.32     6.72     4.02     0.05     0.30    35.49     5.45P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       26   37   +1      64.23     6.40     0.73     0.00     0.02     7.57     1.17P    0.21R    0.00  
Bournemouth     26   37   +0      65.61     6.43     1.64     0.00     0.02    10.71     1.90P    0.11R    0.00  
Preston         25   35   -4      65.08     6.91    -2.51     0.00     0.03    10.78     1.90P    0.32R    0.00  
Bury            25   34   -7      59.24     6.64   -12.90     0.00     0.00     2.00     0.22P    2.59R    0.03  
Colchester      25   33   -4      61.83     6.62    -4.18     0.00     0.00     4.14     0.67P    0.95R    0.01  
Hartlepool      26   33   -4      57.06     6.22    -9.11     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.09P    3.60R    0.07  
Notts_County    25   32   +2      61.06     6.70     2.21     0.00     0.00     3.76     0.55P    1.20R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient   26   32  -10      57.18     6.33   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.10P    4.36R    0.07  
Tranmere        26   31   -4      56.14     6.23    -7.18     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.07P    4.95R    0.12  
Oldham          25   31   -5      57.92     6.53    -7.85     0.00     0.00     1.23     0.15P    3.43R    0.06  
Exeter          26   26  -15      47.61     6.10   -24.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.93R    3.61  
Scunthorpe      25   24   -7      51.77     6.72    -9.09     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P   18.59R    1.18  
Walsall         26   24   -7      48.01     6.25   -12.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   36.07R    3.23  
Yeovil          26   24  -14      46.91     6.24   -21.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.13R    5.11  
Rochdale        26   21  -22      43.85     6.24   -29.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.34R   13.01  
Wycombe         26   20  -19      41.16     6.21   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.03R   23.78  
Chesterfield    26   17  -18      37.25     6.20   -30.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.16R   49.71  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 January 2012, Accrington_Stanley vs Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Southend             25   52  +23      88.19     6.61    34.26    40.69    78.79    98.68    84.50P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham           25   52  +18      82.56     6.60    20.67    11.56    45.14    91.73    53.99P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         25   51  +18      83.63     6.78    23.72    15.93    52.88    93.54    61.58P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon              25   46  +20      84.97     6.52    35.15    22.65    64.37    96.53    75.97P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   45  +14      80.04     6.55    23.15     6.24    32.12    85.84    47.83P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   41  +11      70.19     6.40    13.81     0.16     2.71    33.27     9.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Gillingham           25   41  +10      75.33     6.69    18.39     1.73    12.46    64.15    26.40P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   41   +7      72.95     6.62    11.71     0.73     6.53    48.57    16.75P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        26   40   -1      65.18     6.39    -4.83     0.02     0.42    10.11     1.99P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   26   39   +5      67.61     6.42     6.76     0.07     1.16    19.33     5.39P    0.02R    0.00  
Rotherham            25   37   +4      69.65     6.70     9.79     0.20     2.56    30.37     9.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            26   36  +10      63.63     6.42    10.16     0.01     0.24     8.33     1.86P    0.04R    0.00  
Crewe                26   36   -4      64.86     6.46    -2.04     0.01     0.36     9.59     2.40P    0.04R    0.01  
Port_Vale            26   35   +4      64.16     6.40     6.53     0.01     0.24     9.15     2.32P    0.04R    0.01  
Macclesfield         25   30   -4      54.87     6.42    -9.65     0.00     0.01     0.41     0.08P    3.07R    1.01  
AFC_Wimbledon        25   29  -15      50.31     6.38   -27.60     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   14.40R    6.08  
Aldershot            25   27  -10      53.18     6.44   -13.74     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    5.75R    2.03  
Bristol_Rovers       26   27  -16      51.02     6.44   -21.79     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   11.14R    4.68  
Bradford             25   26   -5      50.82     6.42   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   10.61R    4.15  
Barnet               25   26  -14      48.67     6.37   -24.09     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   19.93R    9.16  
Hereford             26   25  -16      45.86     6.04   -25.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    33.23R   16.78  
Dag_&_Red            25   21  -17      46.46     6.58   -22.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.39R   15.69  
Plymouth             26   21  -20      46.81     6.50   -22.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   28.26R   14.66  
Northampton          26   21  -22      44.47     6.30   -29.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.06R   25.73  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 January 2012, Hayes_&_Yeading vs Ebbsfleet_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Wrexham            27   62  +32      97.56     5.88    46.89    57.39    99.84    70.00P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town     27   60  +30      93.54     6.05    42.00    26.32    98.94    45.03P    0.00     0.00  
Luton              28   54  +31      91.28     5.47    52.09    15.60    98.36    50.81P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          28   50   +7      76.34     6.04     9.40     0.05    31.88     3.17P    0.00     0.00  
York               28   49  +28      81.13     5.83    39.64     0.46    69.35    16.21P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster      28   49  +13      77.90     6.06    19.44     0.16    44.66     6.68P    0.00     0.00  
Southport          28   48   -5      70.26     6.02    -9.44     0.00     7.44     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd      28   46  +13      74.14     5.94    18.23     0.02    21.73     3.49P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby            28   44  +10      72.93     5.95    16.65     0.00    16.83     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield          27   42   +9      70.60     6.24    12.80     0.00     9.39     1.36P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             28   41   +1      64.01     5.92    -1.84     0.00     0.95     0.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Forest_Green       28   38  +11      61.28     5.83     8.98     0.00     0.33     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     28   38   -3      59.75     6.06    -8.56     0.00     0.22     0.02P    0.07R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   28   34   -2      56.57     5.94    -5.81     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.28R    0.00  
Tamworth           26   34   -5      55.64     6.12   -14.66     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.45R    0.01  
Darlington         28   27   -5      53.33     5.85    -2.31     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.28R    0.07  
AFC_Telford        28   27  -13      47.12     6.01   -19.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.01R    1.31  
Lincoln_City       28   26  -15      52.22     6.06   -12.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.82R    0.16  
Stockport          29   23  -19      46.13     5.86   -19.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.11R    2.11  
Newport_County     27   22  -10      47.32     6.18   -11.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.84R    1.34  
Alfreton_Town      28   22  -29      36.59     5.34   -48.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.74R   37.05  
Kettering          28   22  -35      40.60     5.68   -45.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.67R   13.53  
Hayes_&_Yeading    28   21  -22      38.65     5.63   -35.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.08R   19.88  
Bath_City          27   18  -22      38.14     5.88   -32.03     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.63R   24.52  

Adjustments:
Darlington         -10